Ukraine

[Vorret]

Just received a CNN alert :

About 100 people have died in the violence in Ukraine since this morning, the chief medical coordinator of the protesters said. At least 500 others have been injured, he said.

[Holman]

What a terrible situation. I only hope this ends with the current regime swept from power and Ukraine aligned more closely with European models of government.

Nothing more I know to say.

[El Guapo]

More violence and death overnight. This is from a friend in Kiev:
Brief update: VERY EXPENSIVE SHOW AT THE COST OF BLOOD AND LIVES -apparently, our president wanted to perform a "show" for foreign observers who arrived in Kyiv this morning to talk to him one more time before passing decision to implement sanctions against Ukrainian politicians responsible for bloodshed. The "show" started this morning when for no obvious reason riot police started retreating "", allowing protesters to run them past government buildings they had so "courageously" protected for weeks. In the process many protesters were shot dead - riot police is using firearms now. A few riot police were captured by protesters. The point of the "show" was to demonstrate to foreign observers how Maidan "extremists" are chasing poor riot police and taking over government buildings. President was probably hoping that angry people on Maidan will tear policemen that were captured into pieces. But instead protesters took their prisoners to the nearest police station and turned them in! Protesters are staying within Maidan perimeter, building up barricades and cleaning the terrible mess riot police left after two days of occupying part of Maidan. There are snipers on the buildings surrounding Maidan who keep killing people. Protesters are being shot by snipers not just outside of Maidan, but on it. Ten are confirmed dead, but many more bodies are still being gathered and this number will keep growing.

Unfortunately my local news, at least, reported it in the way the regime hoped. The report last night was basically "a fragile truce between the police and protesters fell apart amid mutual recriminations, as the police were retreating from their previous positions while being attacked by protesters."

Obviously what one Boston local news station says doesn't really matter, but hopefully other news outlets aren't doing the same.

[Scraper]

Does anyone else find it awesome that the Heavy Weight Champion of the World (Granted he vacated the title last year for politics and he was only co-champ with his brother, but still the man is a beast) is one of the leaders of the protesters?

I just hope the government doesn't try to make an example out of him, but if they do I suppose he would make a powerful martyr.

[paulbaxter]

Does anyone else find it awesome that the Heavy Weight Champion of the World (Granted he vacated the title last year for politics and he was only co-champ with his brother, but still the man is a beast) is one of the leaders of the protesters?

I just hope the government doesn't try to make an example out of him, but if they do I suppose he would make a powerful martyr.

He's one of the few figures in Ukraine who has some sort of general popularity. I've got nothing against the guy, but it seems sad to me that the one of the best leaders they can find is a boxing champ. I think it speaks volumes about how much worse politics are there compared to the US or W Europe.

Just now I heard NPR reporting over 100 dead since yesterday. Makes me very sad.

[Scraper]

Does anyone else find it awesome that the Heavy Weight Champion of the World (Granted he vacated the title last year for politics and he was only co-champ with his brother, but still the man is a beast) is one of the leaders of the protesters?

I just hope the government doesn't try to make an example out of him, but if they do I suppose he would make a powerful martyr.

He's one of the few figures in Ukraine who has some sort of general popularity. I've got nothing against the guy, but it seems sad to me that the one of the best leaders they can find is a boxing champ. I think it speaks volumes about how much worse politics are there compared to the US or W Europe.

Just now I heard NPR reporting over 100 dead since yesterday. Makes me very sad.

I saw a documentary on him where the politicians tried to use their police to "Politely" remove him from a hearing. It looked like Kindergartners trying to push around their teacher. Still, the guys heart in the the right place, he vacated the Heavy Weight Title, and Millions to try and give the Ukraine a better future with less corruption. I just hope he can make a difference.

[Pyperkub]

This is just bizzare:

Several conservative bloggers repeated talking points given to them by a proxy group for the Ukrainian government — and at least one writer was paid by a representative of the Ukrainian group, according to documents and emails obtained by BuzzFeed.

The Ukrainian campaign began in the run-up to high-stakes Ukrainian parliamentary elections last year, and sought to convince skeptical American conservatives that the pro-Russian Party of Regions, led by President Viktor Yanukovych, deserved American support. During that period, articles echoing Ukrainian government talking points appeared on leading conservative online outlets, including RedState, Breitbart, and Pajamas Media.

The emails and documents, which include prepackaged quotes from election officials and talking points that some writers copied nearly word-for-word, offer a glimpse into how foreign governments dodge tight Justice Department regulations on foreign propaganda to covertly lobby in the United States...

[Kraken]

I don't think American support carries much weight in this case, does it? Opposing Ukraine's govt just pushes it that much farther into Russia's waiting arms. It has already spurned the EU. What should US policy be, apart from voicing moral support for the dissenters?

[El Guapo]

I don't think American support carries much weight in this case, does it? Opposing Ukraine's govt just pushes it that much farther into Russia's waiting arms. It has already spurned the EU. What should US policy be, apart from voicing moral support for the dissenters?

I *think* that U.S. opposition could divide supporters of the government among the Ukraine's elite. If cracking down violently on the opposition will result in U.S. and international economic sanctions, the economic elite might be less willing to support such a violent crackdown (bad for business). Among the Ukranian police and military, they may fear whether, if they participate in the violent crackdown, they might need to fear international travel in the years ahead (whether they might be arrested).

In other words, there are powerful and semi-powerful people who are making calculations as to the odds that the government will survive and making potential plans for it either surviving or not. How they chart their course will have an impact on whether the government does. The U.S. and other countries can impact that calculus.

[Rip]

I don't recall noticing any of those blog posts, but I am pretty much a conservative and it will be a could day in hell before I voice support for a Russian backed Ukranian government. VERY, VERY cold day.

I find myself wondering if the POTUS regrets his efforts to cozy up closer with the Russians however. While I doubt that spurred this activity at all it very well may have made Russia think we would be willy nilly about any strong action in response. So far it seems that is going to be pretty accurate. The EU came out pretty quick with sanctions against the sitting Ukranian government and I am unsure whether they will also take actions against Russia, but I haven't seen any indication that we are going to take action against either one. Well other than drawing another one of those fearsome lines.

Myself I would have come out right away and said that the nuclear weapons drawdowns we had hoped to consider would be shelved until we see Russia stop meddling and that further action was being considered as the situation develops.

[Combustible Lemur]

check out Jason Jones Live From Sochi-ish - Better Off Red on The Daily Show:




Sent courtesy of the Galaxy.... note2.

[Rip]

check out Jason Jones Live From Sochi-ish - Better Off Red on The Daily Show:




Sent courtesy of the Galaxy.... note2.

Funny but kinda runs contrary to conservatives wanting stronger stands against Russia and it's buddies like Syria and Iran, while the POTUS is telling them wait till after I get reelected then I can push the nuclear disarmament agenda(which was lambasted by conservaties). Anyone with half a brain knows conservatives have for some time pushed for a more confrontational stance against Russia and her close allies.

[Rip]

Probably a good time to reflect on the pat yourself on the back US-Russia relations reset fact sheet.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-off ... fact-sheet

Might be a good time to update it with some reality check information.

This one is a hoot as well.

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2010/143275.htm

President Obama and Secretary Clinton had no illusions about the differences we had and continue to have with Russia, but they also recognized that the level of acrimony and distrust that pervaded U.S.-Russian relations did not serve U.S. interests. Moreover, they saw that the poisonous atmosphere between the two countries was a threat to the stability and security of Europe itself. The relationship was undermined by a lack of trust and the absence of any political structures for constructive dialogue, let alone cooperation. This meant not only were we not getting anything done but that Russia had nothing at stake in its relations with the United States and so was uninterested in considering U.S. positions.

And so the idea behind the reset was a simple one: The United States and Russia have significant common interests and where the United States and Russia have common interests, we should cooperate. Where we have differences, we will be honest about them, both in private and in public, and work to move the Russians to more reasonable positions. We will pursue a better relationship with Russia in our mutual interest and we will do so without sacrificing our principles or our friends. With these basic propositions as a guide, we have pursued a path of principled engagement. And we believe that path has yielded considerable results.

Results indeed.

[Combustible Lemur]

check out Jason Jones Live From Sochi-ish - Better Off Red on The Daily Show:




Sent courtesy of the Galaxy.... note2.

Funny but kinda runs contrary to conservatives wanting stronger stands against Russia and it's buddies like Syria and Iran, while the POTUS is telling them wait till after I get reelected then I can push the nuclear disarmament agenda(which was lambasted by conservaties). Anyone with half a brain knows conservatives have for some time pushed for a more confrontational stance against Russia and her close allies.

That's what makes it ironic and funny.....

Sent courtesy of the Galaxy.... note2.

[Isgrimnur]

DEVELOPING: Ukraine president, opposition leaders sign pact to end country's political crisis, opposition rep and president's office say.

[Scraper]

DEVELOPING: Ukraine president, opposition leaders sign pact to end country's political crisis, opposition rep and president's office say.

Apparently it's a fairly good pact to. New elections, a return to a more democratic constitution and more involvement in the political process by the opposition party. I just hope this calms things down for them and actually makes some real progress. Of course if Putin has anything to say about it that may be wishful thinking. He needs a puppet regime there.

[Isgrimnur]

CNN

The agreement gives the government 48 hours to restore an earlier version of the country's constitution limiting the president's powers and calls for further constitutional reform to be completed by September, according to a draft posted on the German Foreign Office's website.

The deal also calls for presidential elections "as soon as the new Constitution is adopted but no later than December 2014."

It calls for protesters to withdraw from streets and public buildings they've occupied during the crisis and turn in illegal weapons, according to the deal.

Security forces are to "step back from confrontational posture" and use force only to protect public buildings, the agreement says.

A joint investigation into the recent violence will follow. Authorities, opposition representatives and the European Council will be included, according to the deal.

[Isgrimnur]

BBC

In parliament, MPs also voted for a change in the law which could lead to the release of jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, an arch-rival of Mr Yanukovych.

[Rip]

Sounds nice but like all deals with Russia's lapdogs I would wait for it happen before I lauded it too much.

I fear once those weapons are turned in the rest will get delayed and ultimately watereed down if not dumped altogether.

[paulbaxter]

People are now saying that Yanukovich has resigned and possibly fled the country. There seems to be a new acting prime minister.

[Rip]

People are now saying that Yanukovich has resigned and possibly fled the country. There seems to be a new acting prime minister.

I just heard he had left Kiev for Kharkiv, so far haven't see anything credible saying he actually resigned. Would be a great sign if he has though.

I did hear the speaker of the parliment had resigned however and they have already selected a replacement.

[Holman]

Does anyone know a credible guide to the various factions involved on both sides? I understand that there are more than two camps, and that not all of the opposition are the sort you actually want to see gain power.

I'm having trouble telling the players without a program.

[Grifman]

Does anyone know a credible guide to the various factions involved on both sides? I understand that there are more than two camps, and that not all of the opposition are the sort you actually want to see gain power.

I'm having trouble telling the players without a program.

See here:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/22/world/eur ... ?hpt=hp_t1

[Grifman]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/22/world/eur ... ?hpt=hp_t1

The president has fled Kiev but says he is not resigning. But that may not matter as Parliament has passed a resolution removing him from power (remember, his party has the majority in parliament so this show how much he is now detested) and elections have been scheduled for May. Even if he doesn't resign or the resolution isn't binding, his time is over. He'll be tossed out office and if he doesn't flee the country, I suspect he'll be arrested and put on trial.

That said, what next? The country is in terrible economic shape and really can't make it without massive financial assistance. Russia's been willing to put up the cash, but the West hasn't until a number of reforms have been put in place to reduce corruption, improve govt and reduce the power of the oligarchs. I'm not sure where they go from here after this apparent victory.

[paulbaxter]

Does anyone know a credible guide to the various factions involved on both sides? I understand that there are more than two camps, and that not all of the opposition are the sort you actually want to see gain power.

I'm having trouble telling the players without a program.

Last time I was actually there (several years ago) they were gearing up for an election. There appeared to be at least a dozen parties running. Yushenko's party (Our Ukraine) which had done well in 2004 had fallen apart. I think Yushenko was more into playing the part of a leader for the cameras than someone who could actually get anything done politically. The big winner at that time was Bloc Tymoshenko. Yulia was actually speaking at a rally while we were there in L'viv, but we had other things going on and couldn't go hear her (not that I would have understood more than a few words). Her party was an coalition of the Fatherland Party and a couple of smaller parties. The Fatherland party, from what I can tell, is currently the largest opposition party. Yanukovich's party, the Party of Regions, is based in Eastern Ukraine (Kharkov and Donetsk are some of the big cities there) and has been running things for the past few years. The third largest party is UDAR, which is some acronym for something or other, but the word itself means "punch". That's Vitaly Klitschko's party. They are followed by the Freedom Party, the Communist Party, and then a vast array of smaller parties. When I was there I remember seeing flyers and posters for the Pensioners Party and one called "Pora", which is a Russian/Ukrainian word meaning "it's time!" I thought that was a great name for a party.

Ukrainian politics, so far as I can tell, are just generally fluid and chaotic. I don't have any doubts that all of the larger parties are pretty thoroughly corrupt. They've had some physical altercations during parliamentary sessions.

That's about the best I can do. I'm not especially up on the current politics at all. I've got a friend who works in the State Department now in Kiev, but I think, just due to his employment, he's a bit constrained about what he can say about local politics. Which isn't to say that he's been silent; he's been fairly outspoken about how horrific the violence has been and that the ruling party is responsible for it.

[Holman]

Thanks for the outline.

I've hear that opposition to corruption and to Russian dominance involves several competing factions. Some are western-leaning of the Euro sort we like, some are cronyist in their own traditional way, and some are right-wing verging on Fascism.

[Kraken]

The question of the moment seems to be partition or civil war. The south and east want to be Russian; the west wants to be European. The president considers his ouster a coup. His pro-Russian supporters see it the same way. As, undoubtedly, does Putin, whose hands come untied when the Olympics end tomorrow.

This struggle is still young and the chances of resolving it diplomatically are not strong. Kiev will not cheerfully cut loose its culturally-Russian provinces.

I don't know anything about the balance of hard power.

[El Guapo]

There will be neither partition nor civil war. The Ukraine has too much of a history, and as far as I know while there are serious cultural divides between Russian and non-Russian Ukrainians, they generally all consider themselves Ukrainian.

There is likely to be some amount of domestic instability and gridlock for some time, however.

[Kraken]

Maybe you're right. I'm hardly an expert. Here's a counterargument.

Fear of the establishment of rival power centers gained ground on Saturday when Mr. Yanukovych, having left the capital, popped up on television from Kharkiv, a Russian-speaking and strongly pro-Russian city in the east of the country near the Russian border. He said he had not resigned, had no plans to do so and was consulting with supporters in the east about what to do next.

“I am a legitimately elected president,” he said defiantly. “What is happening today, mostly, it is vandalism, banditism, and a coup d’état.”Kharkiv has strong ties to Russia. Early Soviet leaders — doubtful of Kiev’s loyalty, fearful of Ukrainian-speaking regions farther west but determined to anchor Ukraine under Moscow’s control — chose Kharkiv as the capital of their newly established Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, a nominally autonomous entity but entirely controlled by Moscow.

Southern Ukraine, especially the region of Crimea, also has strong ties to Russia. Pro-Russian politicians in Crimea have been demanding autonomy from Kiev and even “protection” for their aspirations from Moscow, which has a large military presence in the Black Sea region, notably in Sevastopol, a port city with a huge Russian naval base.

If Mr. Yanukovych sought to rally the east of Ukraine to his side, the west of the country, long a bastion of fierce Ukrainian nationalism, would almost certainly respond by mobilizing its own forces to protect the idea of a single nation.

...

After three months of chanting “bandits out,” Ukraine’s protesters appear to have finally achieved their goal. But whoever now comes in will inherit a country bereft of money, political consensus, a unifying culture and even rudimentary agreement among citizens on what their nation is.

The linked story has a good map that I can't link here.

[paulbaxter]

The question of the moment seems to be partition or civil war. The south and east want to be Russian; the west wants to be European. The president considers his ouster a coup. His pro-Russian supporters see it the same way. As, undoubtedly, does Putin, whose hands come untied when the Olympics end tomorrow.

This struggle is still young and the chances of resolving it diplomatically are not strong. Kiev will not cheerfully cut loose its culturally-Russian provinces.

I don't know anything about the balance of hard power.

Just knowing what I know, I hesitate to make ANY predictions.

I can't say I agree with El Guapo about Ukraine having too much history. The questions of language, identity, history and politics are quite fractured. The eastern parts of Ukraine were part of the Russian empire for a very long time. The western parts were not. Those in the west are still quite grumpy about the Soviet attempts to stamp out the Ukrainian language. I believe that fact has a lot to do with why Taras Shevchenko (19C Ukrainian poet) is now pretty much the most prominent historical figure for Ukrainians. There are a number of other major writers who came from what is now Ukraine (including Joseph Conrad), but almost all of them wrote in Russian.

In any event, it looks like what is keeping the country together at the moment is the recognition of the total failure of Yanukovich. I think this story makes some sense of the rumor this morning that he had left the country:
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine ... 37394.html

[El Guapo]

The country could well be politically unstable for some time. But as far as I know no politician is seeking or would be willing to accept the division of the Ukraine. So partition or civil war would require mass armed groups to form to the point where the Ukrainian military stops being able to control portions of the country. I don't think there's any sign of that yet either, and that would probably require Russia getting REALLY rambunctious.

It's not impossible, but it's pretty unlikely.

[Holman]

Well, this can't be good: Gunmen Seize Government Buildings in Crimea

Masked men with guns seized government buildings in the capital of Ukraine’s Crimea region on Thursday, barricading themselves inside and raising the Russian flag after mysterious overnight raids that appeared to be the work of militant Russian nationalists who want this volatile Black Sea region ruled from Moscow.

Police officers sealed off all access to the buildings but said that they had no idea who was behind the assault, which sharply escalated tensions in a region that serves as home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and also to a number of radical pro-Russia groups that have appealed to Moscow to protect them from the new interim government in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital.

...

The overnight raids left Simferopol residents stunned and took place just hours after thousands of Crimean Tatars, the region’s minority indigenous Turkic population, and a separate throng of ethnic Russians staged dueling rallies Thursday outside Crimea’s regional legislature. The rallies, which ended in a chaotic melee and left several people injured, disrupted a session of the regional Parliament that hard-line pro-Russia groups had hoped would declare Crimea’s secession from Ukraine.

[Rip]

Indeed this is far from over and we are as seems to be doctrine laying down red lines that even we know will not result in any real action, so no real reason to expect Russia to be swayed by them. Just a matter of time before the blood starts to flow again.

Shame we and the EU appear unwilling if even able to do anything but whine and watch.

[Isgrimnur]

Such is the state of international diplomacy. We would scream bloody murder if the Russians wanted to meddle in the affairs of Tijuana or Juarez.

[Kraken]

A large majority of Crimea's residents consider themselves Russian. It only went to Ukraine when internal Soviet borders were redrawn in the 1950s, so it's kind of a technicality anyway. If it were up to me I'd let 'em go, but the Kiev government might see it differently.

[Isgrimnur]

No government cedes power and dominion voluntarily without getting something in return.

[Isgrimnur]

The Russians aren't sitting on their hands:

More than 10 Russian military helicopters flew into Ukrainian airspace on Friday over Crimea, Kiev's border guard service said, accusing Russian servicemen of blockading one of its units in the port city of Sevastopol, where part of Moscow's Black Sea fleet is based.

A serviceman at the scene confirmed to Reuters he was from the Black Sea Fleet and said they were there to stop the kind of protests that ousted Yanukovich in Kiev.

The fleet denied its forces were involved in seizing one of the airports, Interfax news agency reported, while a supporter described the armed group at the other site as Crimean militiamen.

Moscow has promised to defend the interests of its citizens in Ukraine. While it has said it will not intervene by force, its rhetoric since the removal of Yanukovich a week ago has echoed the run-up to its invasion of Georgia in 2008.

[Smoove_B]

Let's hope things don't turn out like they did in 1945...

[El Guapo]

What happens if Russia actually sends troops into the Ukraine? We absolutely do not want to go to war with Russia. *If* Russia does a full scale invasion with the goal of either annexing the Ukraine (wildly unlikely) or reinstating Yanukovich (conceivable, but still unlikely) then that might impact our national interest enough to mobilize and at least risk a shooting war with Russia.

A Russian move wherein they foment already existing unrest in the Crimea and then send in troops to "stabilize" the situation, with the goal of either annexing the Crimea or splitting off a Russian vassal state there, makes a lot of sense. Gives Russia more secure Black Sea access for its fleet, reduces or removes the "black eye" that Putin would get for losing the Ukraine as a vassal for nothing. And I don't think we care about the Crimea nearly enough to risk a war over it.

[Kraken]

Ukraine has accused Russia of carrying out an armed invasion by sending naval forces to occupy Sevastopol airport in the Crimea region.

Events are moving quickly as Putin apparently intends to exploit a fluid situation.