Seattle hates jobs

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PLW
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by PLW »

The first good economic analysis of the effect of the change is out. Pretty much exactly what most mainstream economists would expect. Big wage effects, small disemployment effects (but which will probably grow over time), on net pretty much a push. You can read the whole thing, here.

By the way, this analysis was performed as dictated by the law when enacted. The lead author, Jacob Vigdor, is a well respected labor economist without strong ideological leanings. He has worked with both the Urban Institute (Left) and Manhattan Institute (Right).
The major conclusion one should draw from this analysis is that the Seattle Minimum Wage
Ordinance worked as intended by raising the hourly wage rate of low- - wage workers, yet the
unintended, negative side effects on hours and employment muted the impact on labor earnings.
The Seattle economy (as well as comparison regions in the state of Washington) is booming, and
this strong macroeconomy has led to improved outcomes for low-wage workers. Yet, our best
estimates find that the Seattle Minimum Wage Ordinance appears to have lowered
employment rates of low-wage workers. This negative unintended consequence (which are
predicted by some of the existing economic literature) is concerning and needs to be followed
closely in future years, because the long-run effects are likely to be greater as businesses and
workers have more time to adapt to the ordinance. Finally, we find only modest impacts on
earnings. The effects of disemployment appear to be roughly offsetting the gain in hourly wage
rates, leaving the earnings for the average low-wage worker unchanged. Of course, we are
talking about the average result.

More specifically, we find that median wages for low-wage workers (those earning less than $11
per hour during the 2 nd quarter of 2014) rose by $1.18 per hour, and we estimate that the impact
of the Ordinance was to increase these workers’ median wage by $0.73 per hour. Further, while
these low-wage workers increased their likelihood of being employed relative to prior years, this
increase was less than in comparison regions. We estimate that the impact of the Ordinance was
a 1.1 percentage point decrease in likelihood of low-wage Seattle workers remaining employed.
While these low-wage workers increased their quarterly earnings relative to prior years, the
estimated impact of the Ordinance on earnings is small and sensitive to the choice of comparison
region. Finally, for those who kept their job, the Ordinance appears to have improved wages
and earnings, but decreased their likelihood of being employed in Seattle relative other parts of
the state of Washington.

We find that Seattle employers closed less frequently than in prior years. Yet, this improvement
was not as strong as in comparison regions. We estimate that the impact of the Ordinance was a
0.7 percentage point increase in the rate of business closures. However, Seattle establishments
opened more frequently than in prior years, and we estimate that the impact of the Ordinance
was a 0.9 percentage point increase in the rate of business openings. Thus, any effect of the
Ordinance on business closures was more than offset by a corresponding increase in business
openings.
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noxiousdog
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by noxiousdog »

I would like to see the effect on rents. I think there's a very strong argument to be made that almost all wage increases go into property.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by GreenGoo »

noxiousdog wrote:I would like to see the effect on rents. I think there's a very strong argument to be made that almost all wage increases go into property.
Certainly in Ontario there is a limit to how much rent can increase year after year, especially if the same renters stay. You can't just spring a large increase on current renters, nor can you kick them out just so you can turn up the rent. There are ways to do it anyway, but those tend to involve having the property vacant while you do renovations and such.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by noxiousdog »

GreenGoo wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:I would like to see the effect on rents. I think there's a very strong argument to be made that almost all wage increases go into property.
Certainly in Ontario there is a limit to how much rent can increase year after year, especially if the same renters stay. You can't just spring a large increase on current renters, nor can you kick them out just so you can turn up the rent. There are ways to do it anyway, but those tend to involve having the property vacant while you do renovations and such.
Doesn't matter. People tend to move as soon as they have more money. It's probably the highest quality of living investment you can make.

So, yes, it's fine for people that stay, but that's a small number.

Anyway, I'm just curious what the numbers would say, and as they point out in the article, there's a lot of moving parts, so a straight comparison wouldn't work.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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LordMortis
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by LordMortis »

GreenGoo wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:I would like to see the effect on rents. I think there's a very strong argument to be made that almost all wage increases go into property.
Certainly in Ontario there is a limit to how much rent can increase year after year, especially if the same renters stay. You can't just spring a large increase on current renters, nor can you kick them out just so you can turn up the rent. There are ways to do it anyway, but those tend to involve having the property vacant while you do renovations and such.

Don't let Izzy read this. I want to say he was prepared to move out of somewhere and then move into a different unit over unfair annual increases to his rent.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Isgrimnur »

It wasn't increases that I had a problem with. It was increases when they were advertising my floor plan for the same or less than I was already paying.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Jeff V »

Isgrimnur wrote:It wasn't increases that I had a problem with. It was increases when they were advertising my floor plan for the same or less than I was already paying.
The agents with the company that owns the building probably get bonus paid on new renters. They advertise attractive prices to lure in new renters, then jack it up on an annual basis until you get fed up and leave (so they can re-rent and get another bonus). Not unlike cell phone companies that reserve their sweetest deals for new customers.

I left an apartment a few years ago after two years of $200+ rent increases. I'm in my 3rd year of renting a house owned by a couple, not a corporation. They've not raised rent one dime.
Black Lives Matter
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Moliere
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Moliere »

Will the Minimum Wage Debate Ever Be Settled?
With much of President-Elect Trump’s cabinet in place, the direction the administration could take on some policy issues is becoming clearer. Among the priorities that likely won’t be carried forward: support for minimum-wage hikes. Andrew Puzder—President-Elect Donald Trump’s pick for U.S. Secretary of Labor has opposed the federal minimum wage rising to $10.10 an hour, arguing that such a hike would reduce employment. In a 2014 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, he wrote that in reality, hiking minimum pay would lead business owners to “cut jobs and rely more on technology” instead of raising prices to make up for costlier payrolls or taking a hit to profits.

Whether people agree with Puzder often comes down to their ideological bent—do they trust the market or do they believe in government intervention? But, in the end, this is not a theoretical question—it’s one that data should be able to settle, and there’s lots of data and many, many studies out there. Yet, despite the mountains of research over the past few decades, there’s a lack of agreement among economists on this question—which affects an estimated 2.6 million American workers who currently earn the minimum legal wage. There are even studies about why the effects of a minimum wage are so hard to discern.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by malchior »

No. There are far too many confounding factors. Everyone has a reason and capacity to obscure the truth and every industry is different. It is a fool's errand probably to think that the policy can be easily discerned. What is pretty clear though is that more automation is the future for wide swath of the jobs and will have society changing affects on the labor force. This might imply that the minimum wage argument is probably going to be subsumed by the basic income debate at some point.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Pyperkub »

Harvard, I expect better of you:
The Harvard study used reviews on the social media site Yelp as a gauge of relative quality. It found that lower-rated eateries in particular were more likely to go under as the minimum wage was raised.
Maybe that was because the restaurants sucked and not minimum wage? Using yelp as a metric here? :doh:
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Alefroth »

I like that they claim the minimum wage may be too high, but they still refer to those people as low-wage workers.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by noxiousdog »

Alefroth wrote:I like that they claim the minimum wage may be too high, but they still refer to those people as low-wage workers.
I don't know if you're being silly, but it's a demand question. People will only pay a certain amount for services. If those services cannot be produced cheaply enough, the business is going to die.

Which is fine. That's the way it should work. But then, you have to balance is it better for 96% of the people to be employed at an $11/hour minimum or 94% of the people at a $13/minimum.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Alefroth
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Alefroth »

noxiousdog wrote:
Alefroth wrote:I like that they claim the minimum wage may be too high, but they still refer to those people as low-wage workers.
I don't know if you're being silly, but it's a demand question. People will only pay a certain amount for services. If those services cannot be produced cheaply enough, the business is going to die.

Which is fine. That's the way it should work. But then, you have to balance is it better for 96% of the people to be employed at an $11/hour minimum or 94% of the people at a $13/minimum.
I'm not being silly, but I think you're missing my point. I understand demand, and I understand that people are focused on the bottom line of something rather than the true cost, since the true cost rarely affects them directly. Having the same paragraph say the minimum wage may be too high and call those people low-wage workers, I find darkly amusing. It reinforces the notion that maintaining a low-paid, low-mobility working/service class is vital for the economic status quo.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by noxiousdog »

Alefroth wrote: I'm not being silly, but I think you're missing my point. I understand demand, and I understand that people are focused on the bottom line of something rather than the true cost, since the true cost rarely affects them directly. Having the same paragraph say the minimum wage may be too high and call those people low-wage workers, I find darkly amusing. It reinforces the notion that maintaining a low-paid, low-mobility working/service class is vital for the economic status quo.
I don't agree with that at all. The whole article was about balance. Wages go up, employment goes down. At $11 an hour, it doesn't go down very much. at $13, it appears noticeable. There was no judgement on whether $11, $13 or $15 or $20 is good, but instead the diminished jobs should be balanced by the increase in work. FWIW, this goes completely away with the minimum income argument that I become more interested all the time.

I also think that minimum wage workers are high mobility as they can get the same pay and have the same skills any where they work.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Isgrimnur »

High job mobility? Sure. High geographic mobility? Not on your life.

If your metro prices you out of the workforce, good luck making a run for the border.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by noxiousdog »

Isgrimnur wrote:High job mobility? Sure. High geographic mobility? Not on your life.

If your metro prices you out of the workforce, good luck making a run for the border.
If you say so. How does immigration fit into that theory?
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Isgrimnur »

The foreign worker crossing the border is substantially different than an inner city worker unable to find a job within their ability to travel. But perhaps those poor inner city folks should just lower their definition of rock-bottom standards so that they're sharing the same rung on the ladder.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

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Isgrimnur wrote:The foreign worker crossing the border is substantially different than an inner city worker unable to find a job within their ability to travel.
Interesting. I think there's a lesson in there.
But perhaps those poor inner city folks should just lower their definition of rock-bottom standards so that they're sharing the same rung on the ladder.
Curiously, the immigrant workers I have known weren't making minimum wage They made $10-16 hour depending on experience.

Regardless, you're talking about whether people should accept minimum wage. That's a different argument than saying that when expenses rise, there is some point when value is no longer created.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Isgrimnur »

There is some point where value is not created. And what do you do with a population that doesn't have the skills to generate value?
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by noxiousdog »

Isgrimnur wrote:There is some point where value is not created. And what do you do with a population that doesn't have the skills to generate value?
Noxiousdog wrote:FWIW, this goes completely away with the minimum income argument that I become more interested [in] all the time.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Seattle hates jobs

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Picked up Space Run at 75% off. Enjoying it muchly, but how the hell has this not been ported to iOS? Seems like the perfect game for an iPad.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by LordMortis »

Carpet_pissr wrote:Picked up Space Run at 75% off. Enjoying it muchly, but how the hell has this not been ported to iOS? Seems like the perfect game for an iPad.
I think you may have multiple tabs open.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by TheMix »

LordMortis wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote:Picked up Space Run at 75% off. Enjoying it muchly, but how the hell has this not been ported to iOS? Seems like the perfect game for an iPad.
I think you may have multiple tabs open.
Perhaps he thinks Seattle should hire someone to handle the port to iPad?

Black Lives Matter

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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by em2nought »

It's apparent that Seattle really does hate one particular job at the very least: Selling firearms https://personalliberty.com/seattle-gun-tax-misfires/
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by PLW »

This new report is pretty convincing. I did warn that the effects would be worse in the long-run than the short-run. It's too bad there's not a free lunch, but it is kind of reassuring that our basic economic analysis of the minimum wage seems to hold up.

Nice summary of the study and how some of the criticisms are weak sauce.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Kurth »

Alefroth wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:
Alefroth wrote:I like that they claim the minimum wage may be too high, but they still refer to those people as low-wage workers.
I don't know if you're being silly, but it's a demand question. People will only pay a certain amount for services. If those services cannot be produced cheaply enough, the business is going to die.

Which is fine. That's the way it should work. But then, you have to balance is it better for 96% of the people to be employed at an $11/hour minimum or 94% of the people at a $13/minimum.
I'm not being silly, but I think you're missing my point. I understand demand, and I understand that people are focused on the bottom line of something rather than the true cost, since the true cost rarely affects them directly. Having the same paragraph say the minimum wage may be too high and call those people low-wage workers, I find darkly amusing. It reinforces the notion that maintaining a low-paid, low-mobility working/service class is vital for the economic status quo.
I don't understand this. Of course they are "low-wage workers" working low-wage jobs. What else would you call them? Whether they are employed at $11/hour or $13/hour, we should call a spade a spade. Those are still low-wage jobs. Unless we think we're going to do away with low-wage jobs altogether - which is idiocy in my mind - we'll always have low-wage jobs. Now, where the floor on those low-wage jobs should be is another question.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Moliere »

Seattle Moves to End Minimum Wage Exemption for Disabled Workers
Seattle’s Department of Labor Standards (OLS) is taking public comment on a proposed rule change that would extend local minimum wage protections to disabled workers.

Currently, city and state law exempt from the minimum wage “individuals whose earning capacity is impaired by age or physical or mental deficiency or injury,” as the Revised Code of Washington puts it. The proposed change to city rules would strike the “or physical or mental deficiency or injury” part, so that the exemption only applied to underage labor.
Peter Schiff explaining why this is a bad idea.

Essentially, the exemption is in place because the government knows that handicap people are not as productive and therefore would not be hired as often if employers were required to pay them the minimum wage.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by AWS260 »

Moliere wrote:Peter Schiff explaining
No thank you.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Moliere »

AWS260 wrote:
Moliere wrote:Peter Schiff explaining
No thank you.
Which is why I included the basic premise of his argument in my post. :wink:
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Pyperkub »

After Moliere's post in Political Randomness today, I wonder if we need a Moliere Hates Seattle thread ;)
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Moliere »

Pyperkub wrote:After Moliere's post in Political Randomness today, I wonder if we need a Moliere Hates Seattle thread ;)
How you ever noticed how much it rains in Seattle? And what's up with all the hipsters and their coffee shops?
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Pyperkub »

Moliere wrote:
Pyperkub wrote:After Moliere's post in Political Randomness today, I wonder if we need a Moliere Hates Seattle thread ;)
How you ever noticed how much it rains in Seattle? And what's up with all the hipsters and their coffee shops?
Yes, and Coffee is good :coffee:

Can't blame the hipsters for that...
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Moliere »

Pyperkub wrote:After Moliere's post in Political Randomness today, I wonder if we need a Moliere Hates Seattle thread ;)
Found another one!

Sound Transit’s Lynnwood extension running $500M over budget
Sound Transit’s long-awaited Lynnwood light-rail extension is running $500 million over budget and is expected to open six months late, in mid-2024, agency CEO Peter Rogoff said Thursday.

Staff reports blame soaring labor, materials and land costs in the overheated Seattle-area market, along with features being requested by communities.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by hitbyambulance »

after the news this morning, i would have been super surprised to see Murray not resign. somehow he managed to downplay the prior allegations, and only under duress finally said he was not going to run for re-election.

in any case, the mayoral elections this fall should be interesting: Jenny Durkan (representing the establishment) vs Cary Moon (the "political outsider"). i am guessing Durkan's going to get the vote, but it'll be reaaaaaalllly close...

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-new ... ay-debate/
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Pyperkub »

Moliere wrote:
Pyperkub wrote:After Moliere's post in Political Randomness today, I wonder if we need a Moliere Hates Seattle thread ;)
Found another one!

Sound Transit’s Lynnwood extension running $500M over budget
Sound Transit’s long-awaited Lynnwood light-rail extension is running $500 million over budget and is expected to open six months late, in mid-2024, agency CEO Peter Rogoff said Thursday.

Staff reports blame soaring labor, materials and land costs in the overheated Seattle-area market, along with features being requested by communities.
SPD SOP for you Seattle-hating Moliere :)
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Moliere »

What else is there to do at 4am in Seattle?

I thought by now someone would post about Seattle's overpriced parking garage.
Sound Transit’s financial odometer will soon roll past $100,000 per stall to provide parking garages for its growing clientele of park-and-ride customers.

The agency says cost estimates have soared to $65 million, compared with the previous $35 million, to add as many as 550 spaces by 2023 at the Sounder train station in Kent, which already has one big garage.

The project will keep a promise made to voters during the Sound Transit 2 campaign in 2008, then deferred during the Great Recession, to boost park-and-ride capacity next to Sounder commuter trains.

The new figures average out to $118,000 a space, though the project includes $3 million for improvements unrelated to parking, such as passenger drop-off areas, new bus shelters, walk and bike paths, and illumination.
Suck on that Seattle fanboys!
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Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Pyperkub »

Moliere wrote:
What else is there to do at 4am in Seattle?

I thought by now someone would post about Seattle's overpriced parking garage.
Sound Transit’s financial odometer will soon roll past $100,000 per stall to provide parking garages for its growing clientele of park-and-ride customers.

The agency says cost estimates have soared to $65 million, compared with the previous $35 million, to add as many as 550 spaces by 2023 at the Sounder train station in Kent, which already has one big garage.

The project will keep a promise made to voters during the Sound Transit 2 campaign in 2008, then deferred during the Great Recession, to boost park-and-ride capacity next to Sounder commuter trains.

The new figures average out to $118,000 a space, though the project includes $3 million for improvements unrelated to parking, such as passenger drop-off areas, new bus shelters, walk and bike paths, and illumination.
Suck on that Seattle fanboys!
the (newly moved) Los Angeles Chargers are playing in a 27k seat soccer stadium until the new Rams/Chargers stadium is completed. They are charging $100/parking spot
The Chargers are charging $100 for fans to park in the general tailgating lot. For a franchise that needs to establish a fanbase in an already-fickle sports market, that wasn’t the most endearing strategy...

...And that was just to park. The cheapest tickets on Ticketmaster ahead of Sunday’s game were around $90 per ticket.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Moliere
Posts: 12295
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:57 am
Location: Walking through a desert land

Re: Seattle hates jobs

Post by Moliere »

I haven't hated on Seattle this month yet, so...

Seattle to Amazon: Don't Leave Me, Baby
The only place not jumping for joy is the company's current hometown of Seattle, where politicians have reacted to the prospect of Amazon expanding elsewhere as if they were going through the phases of a bad break-up.

Local officials greeted Amazon's initial announcement with an "I'll never let you go" kind of rage. One councilmember, Kshama Sawant, reacted by yearning "to take these behemoths into democratic public ownership."

Some Seattle politicians are now expressing regret about such harsh words, and are promising to be a better partner to the company.

Last Friday, five out of nine Seattle City Councilmembers—along with a clutch of county and state officials—sent a letter to Amazon. To the extent that the company's decision to expand elsewhere was based on "feeling unwelcome in Seattle, or not being included in some of our regional decisions," they wrote, "we would like to hit the refresh button."
...
In 2014 the city passed one of the nation's first $15 an hour minimum wage laws. This was followed by onerous employee scheduling regulations, restrictions on running criminal background checks, and an infamous (and probably illegal) income tax.

And these are just the policies that have passed. Also in the works is a so-called Amazon tax, which would levy a yearly $100-per-employee levy on large companies. To draft this tax, Seattle hired John Burbank, director of the Economic Opportunity Institute, who once called Amazon a "sociopathic roommate" that the city was better off without.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
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