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ECDMPWTFEYemen?

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ECDMPWTFEYemen?

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:05 pm

USA Today
Fragile efforts to bring stability to one of the poorest and most unstable countries in the Arab world appeared to be nearing collapse in Yemen on Tuesday as rebels attacked the embattled president's residence as and swept into the presidential palace.

The U.S.-backed government in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa was in delicate negotiation with Shiite Houthi rebels when violence erupted Tuesday.

President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi was inside the residence as it came under "heavy shelling" for a half-hour, but he was unharmed and protected by guards, according to Information Minister Nadia al-Sakkaf.

At the same time, rebels took control of the presidential palace in Sanaa and were staging a coup, said Army commander Col. Saleh al-Jamalani, who leads the Presidential Protection Force.

"This is a coup. There is no other word to describe what is happening but a coup," al-Jamalani said, adding that the rebels were likely aided by insiders.

The U.N. Security Council called an emergency meeting about the unfolding events. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon expressed concern over the "deteriorating situation" in Yemen and urged all sides to cease hostilities.

In Washington, the State Department said it is closely monitoring events in Sanaa, but no decision has been made on whether to close or evacuate the U.S. Embassy there.
...
Hadi had been in negotiation with Houthi rebels for a cease-fire that ended deadly street fighting Monday. The rebels, claimed by critics to have the backing of the Shiite Iranian government, had set up checkpoints in the capital and taken control of the state media Monday.
I doubt the Saudis would be real happy if the government there is overthrown by religious extremists.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Rip » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:31 pm

ISofA?

Islamic State of Africa...........

:think:

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:33 pm

The Arabian Peninsula is considered part of Africa. :snooty:
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Rip » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:36 pm

Brainfart. But there will be one coming, just unknown in what country it will start.

That is right Yemen is where a number of those Guantanamo prisoners were from that we sent to other places for safe keeping.

We should see them popping up in Yemen in 3...2.....1...
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by El Guapo » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:45 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
At the same time, rebels took control of the presidential palace in Sanaa and were staging a coup, said Army commander Col. Saleh al-Jamalani, who leads the Presidential Protection Force.

"This is a coup. There is no other word to describe what is happening but a coup," al-Jamalani said, adding that the rebels were likely aided by insiders.
Doesn't a coup have to be by the military? Wouldn't the right words to describe this be "successful rebellion"?

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:46 pm

Rip wrote:ISofA?

Islamic State of Africa...........

:think:
I beleive it's now the Oil Backed Arab Monarchies of Africa.





I was reading something from a Middle East think tank. They said that Syria and Yemen were prime opportunities for military intervention to succeed but because of Iraq and Afghanistan, the US was too gun-shy and/or too overburdened to enter into either conflict and so we let them get away. Not sure how accurate that is though. Never followed up.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:48 pm

At least with Yemen or Oman, the Navy and Marines would finally get to use their big toys.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Rip » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:53 pm

Memories......
“But I want the American people to understand how this effort will be different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil. This counter-terrorism campaign will be waged through a steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist using our air power and our support for partner forces on the ground. This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”

Umm, yea, good idea... :roll:

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by El Guapo » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:56 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Rip wrote:ISofA?

Islamic State of Africa...........

:think:
I beleive it's now the Oil Backed Arab Monarchies of Africa.





I was reading something from a Middle East think tank. They said that Syria and Yemen were prime opportunities for military intervention to succeed but because of Iraq and Afghanistan, the US was too gun-shy and/or too overburdened to enter into either conflict and so we let them get away. Not sure how accurate that is though. Never followed up.
Depends how you define "success" I think. I assume that they were talking about US air / special forces intervention - obviously a US ground invasion in either country would succeed militarily, but then you'd have the same (more or less) occupation difficulties that we've had in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Given that Assad (and Hezbollah) have yet to succeed in crushing the Syrian rebels despite years of warfare, I assume that a strong US air / spec ops intervention would allow the Syrian rebels to win. So that would be a reliable "success" at least in the short term. The question is what happens after the rebels win - if the replacement is a new dictator like Assad, is that successful? What if it's an Islamist government? What if the rebels descend into civil war (like post-Soviet Afghanistan)? Either the US has to accept / deal with whatever government results (whether we like it or not) or we have to do an Iraq / Afghanistan invasion in order to have some reliable control over the outcome.

Anyway - in either case, pretty clear short term success, medium to long-term success more murky.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:02 pm

Rip wrote:Memories......
“But I want the American people to understand how this effort will be different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil. This counter-terrorism campaign will be waged through a steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist using our air power and our support for partner forces on the ground. This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”

Umm, yea, good idea... :roll:
Obama wouldn't ahve been able to muster support to go into Syria or Yemen anyway. I think we should have gone in with overwhelming force but it just wasn't going to happen.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:05 pm

El Guapo wrote: Depends how you define "success" I think. I assume that they were talking about US air / special forces intervention - obviously a US ground invasion in either country would succeed militarily, but then you'd have the same (more or less) occupation difficulties that we've had in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Given that Assad (and Hezbollah) have yet to succeed in crushing the Syrian rebels despite years of warfare, I assume that a strong US air / spec ops intervention would allow the Syrian rebels to win. So that would be a reliable "success" at least in the short term. The question is what happens after the rebels win - if the replacement is a new dictator like Assad, is that successful? What if it's an Islamist government? What if the rebels descend into civil war (like post-Soviet Afghanistan)? Either the US has to accept / deal with whatever government results (whether we like it or not) or we have to do an Iraq / Afghanistan invasion in order to have some reliable control over the outcome.

Anyway - in either case, pretty clear short term success, medium to long-term success more murky.
Success probably means short term. Long term failure in the region is pretty much all we ever do.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Rip » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:05 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Rip wrote:Memories......
“But I want the American people to understand how this effort will be different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil. This counter-terrorism campaign will be waged through a steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist using our air power and our support for partner forces on the ground. This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”

Umm, yea, good idea... :roll:
Obama wouldn't ahve been able to muster support to go into Syria or Yemen anyway. I think we should have gone in with overwhelming force but it just wasn't going to happen.
All fine and dandy, I'm with that. Still doesn't mean I try to pan my unwillingness to engage in direct confrontation as a "successful strategy". Stretch to even call it a strategy. It is the military equivalent of playing prevent defense in a game without a clock.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:11 pm

Rip wrote: All fine and dandy, I'm with that. Still doesn't mean I try to pan my unwillingness to engage in direct confrontation as a "successful strategy". Stretch to even call it a strategy. It is the military equivalent of playing prevent defense in a game without a clock.
It's not a military strategy but it is a political one. We weren't going to commit so he could either say he wasn't committing because we lacked the stomach for it or he wasn't committing because we had viable alternatives. PR.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Carpet_pissr » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:53 pm

El Guapo wrote:or we have to do an Iraq / Afghanistan invasion in order to have some reliable control over the outcome.
Say what now? Please tell me I read that wrong, or read your meaning wrong, which is highly likely considering what actually happened in post-invasion Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by El Guapo » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:29 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:
El Guapo wrote:or we have to do an Iraq / Afghanistan invasion in order to have some reliable control over the outcome.
Say what now? Please tell me I read that wrong, or read your meaning wrong, which is highly likely considering what actually happened in post-invasion Iraq and Afghanistan.
My point is that without troops on the ground we would have little ability to influence who winds up in charge of post-war Syria. We have *some* tools, mostly things like "if you put A, B, or C in charge, you can expect U.S. foreign aid, but not D, E, or F, and if you put G in charge, you'll probably wind up with sanctions". But while we can get some type of influence that way, we have little real control (if F or G has the most guns they'll probably wind up in charge regardless).

By contrast, if the Marines are in Damascus, we have actual control, as in the *ability* to say "ok A is in charge, if you don't like it, tough." We probably don't want to use it like that, but that kind of control gives us leverage in negotiating with the various powers post-war which gives us much more significant ability to impact the post-war order.

Now as Iraq and Afghanistan show, actions have (violent) pushback, and it doesn't mean that we can reshape the country at will. I'm just saying, if we're only in the country via air power and special forces, we have little to no ability to shape the post-war order; if the Marines are in charge, we have some ability to shape the post-war order (albeit in a flawed and costly way).

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Kraken » Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:35 pm

Actually, it's the end of a lot of countries.
It is a mistake to see the various political and military conflicts now shaking the Middle East as isolated from each other. All are part of a broad struggle to shape a new map of the region. That map will look quite different from the one that Bell and her fellow imperialists bequeathed to us.

Some countries in the Middle East are doomed. They are unfortunate accidents of history. Lamentably, their collapse will take years, with an immense cost in human suffering.

Syria, which was created as a French protectorate, exists today only in name. Iraq, originally dominated by Britain, is likely to be the next to go. The way these countries were created — by outsiders concerned only with their own interests — all but guaranteed that they would ultimately collapse.

Elsewhere in the neighborhood, Yemen is in deep turmoil. Bahrain is quiet only because its Sunni government has temporarily managed to suppress the Shiite majority. Even long-stable Oman may be in trouble after its ailing sultan passes from the scene.

The most intriguing candidate for collapse is Saudi Arabia. For more than half a century Saudi leaders manipulated the United States by feeding our oil addiction, lavishing money on politicians, helping to finance American wars, and buying billions of dollars in weaponry from US companies. Now the sand is beginning to shift under their feet.

In a region full of fake, made-up countries, one Muslim power is sure to survive: Iran. It is the opposite of a fake country. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are less than a century old. Iran has existed — more or less within the same boundaries, with more or less the same language — for 2,500 years. Colonialists never managed to divide it, and it stands today as an island of stability in a volcanically unstable region.
Makes you wonder if a foreign policy premised on today's nations and borders is ultimately futile.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Rip » Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:46 pm

Kraken wrote:Actually, it's the end of a lot of countries.
It is a mistake to see the various political and military conflicts now shaking the Middle East as isolated from each other. All are part of a broad struggle to shape a new map of the region. That map will look quite different from the one that Bell and her fellow imperialists bequeathed to us.

Some countries in the Middle East are doomed. They are unfortunate accidents of history. Lamentably, their collapse will take years, with an immense cost in human suffering.

Syria, which was created as a French protectorate, exists today only in name. Iraq, originally dominated by Britain, is likely to be the next to go. The way these countries were created — by outsiders concerned only with their own interests — all but guaranteed that they would ultimately collapse.

Elsewhere in the neighborhood, Yemen is in deep turmoil. Bahrain is quiet only because its Sunni government has temporarily managed to suppress the Shiite majority. Even long-stable Oman may be in trouble after its ailing sultan passes from the scene.

The most intriguing candidate for collapse is Saudi Arabia. For more than half a century Saudi leaders manipulated the United States by feeding our oil addiction, lavishing money on politicians, helping to finance American wars, and buying billions of dollars in weaponry from US companies. Now the sand is beginning to shift under their feet.

In a region full of fake, made-up countries, one Muslim power is sure to survive: Iran. It is the opposite of a fake country. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are less than a century old. Iran has existed — more or less within the same boundaries, with more or less the same language — for 2,500 years. Colonialists never managed to divide it, and it stands today as an island of stability in a volcanically unstable region.
Makes you wonder if a foreign policy premised on today's nations and borders is ultimately futile.

Makes me wonder if it all won't be a desolate parking lot when all is said and done.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by El Guapo » Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:06 pm

Stop Blaming Colonial Borders for the Middle East's Problems.
The idea that better borders, drawn with careful attention to the region’s ethnic and religious diversity, would have spared the Middle East a century’s worth of violence is especially provocative at a moment when Western powers weigh the merits of intervention in the region. Unfortunately, this critique overstates how arbitrary today’s Middle East borders really are, overlooks how arbitrary every other border in the world is, implies that better borders were possible, and ignores the cynical imperial practices that actually did sow conflict in the region.
Basically, while most of the Middle-East's borders were defined by colonialists, they're more rooted in history than you would think. Iraq was treated as a coherent entity by the Ottomans (who ruled it for centuries, as Mesopotamia), as was Syria (with Mount Lebanon a separate administrative region). Jordan is completely artificial, and yet has been among the most stable countries in the region.

Also a lot of conflicts would happen anyway, it's just that where the borders are would change whether they were civil or regular wars. The Iran / Iraq border was set by centuries old wars between the Ottomans and Persia / Iran, which didn't stop the bloody Iran-Iraq war over that border.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:28 pm

WaPo
Yemen’s political turmoil deepened Thursday as Cabinet members staged a mass resignation after days of chaos that have left well-armed rebels in effective control.

The resignations, reported by the Associated Press, could leave Yemen’s Western-backed president politically adrift and throws into doubt a power-sharing deal that apparently allowed him a chance to remain in office.
...
A government spokesman, Rageh Badi, told the AP that the resignations were submitted by the entire Cabinet. He gave no further details, but a statement from Prime Minister Khaled Bahah posted on his Facebook page said he resigned to avoid being drawn “into an abyss” of policies “based on no law.”

“We don’t want to be a party to what is happening or will happen,” he added.
Reports are the president is headed out the door right behind them.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:20 pm

Parliament may not accept president's resignation.
Yemen's political future remained uncertain Friday, with parliament reportedly planning to decide Sunday whether to accept the resignation of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.

President Hadi, Prime Minister Khaled Bahah and his Cabinet tendered their resignations Thursday, days after Houthi militia besieged key government positions in the capital, demanding changes to a draft constitution.
...
Houthis and government officials had appeared to reach agreement Wednesday, under which the rebels were to withdraw and release the president's chief of staff, who remains in the militia's custody. In exchange, Hadi, at the time surrounded by the rebels, pledged to scrap the draft constitutional changes.

The Houthi rebels seized de facto control of the capital in September, moving beyond their traditional rebellion in the north. Separatists continue to press their cause in the south, while militants from the Yemen-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula continue to operate.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Drazzil » Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:25 pm

I am so sick of the US being so addicted to middle eastern meddling. Lets get our troops out of the middle east and force the Arab league take care of their own conflicts.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:48 pm

Done and done.
The last 500 soldiers left Iraq on the morning of 18 December 2011.
About 10,800 American troops will stay in Afghanistan in 2015 -- down from 38,000 at the start of 2014. Those remaining troops will continue missions focused on counter-terrorism and training. (Obama had said in 2012 he expected some troops to remain past 2014 for those tasks.)

The White House said it plans to reduce remaining troops by about half by the end of 2015, and Obama wants all troops out by the end of 2016, when he leaves the Oval Office.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Feb 12, 2015 3:19 pm

Reuters
The United Nations warned on Thursday that Yemen is "collapsing before our eyes", on the brink of civil war and prime for Al Qaeda militants to grow stronger in the country as talks on a political settlement continue.

Al Qaeda and other Sunni Muslim militants have stepped up attacks since rival Iranian-backed Shi'ite Muslim Houthi fighters from the north seized the capital in September and started expanding across the country.

The Houthis have sidelined the central government in Yemen, which borders oil giant Saudi Arabia. The country is also home to Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, one of the global network's most active arms that has carried out attacks abroad.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and his special envoy to Yemen, Jamal Benomar, briefed the Security Council on Thursday.

"Yemen is collapsing before our eyes. We cannot stand by and watch," Ban told the 15-nation council. "We must do everything possible to help Yemen step back from the brink and get the political process back on track."
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Carpet_pissr » Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:22 pm

BKM wrote:"We must do everything possible to help Yemen step back from the brink and get the political process back on track."
MmmmK? I'm listening!

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Rip » Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:49 am

Well if we won't do anything, others will.
Saudi Arabia is moving heavy military equipment including artillery to areas near its border with Yemen, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, raising the risk that the Middle East’s top oil power will be drawn into the worsening Yemeni conflict.

The buildup follows a southward advance by Iranian-backed Houthi Shi'ite militants who took control of the capital Sanaa in September and seized the central city of Taiz at the weekend as they move closer to the new southern base of U.S.-supported President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
One U.S. government source described the size of the Saudi buildup on Yemen's border as "significant" and said the Saudis could be preparing air strikes to defend Hadi if the Houthis attack his refuge in the southern seaport of Aden.

Another U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Washington had acquired intelligence about the Saudi build-up. But there was no immediate word on the precise location near the border or the exact size of the force deployed.

Hadi, who supported Washington’s campaign of deadly drone strikes on a powerful al Qaeda branch based in Yemen, has been holed up in Aden with his loyalist forces since he fled Sanaa in February. On Tuesday, forces loyal to Hadi drove Houthi fighters from two towns they had seized hours earlier, residents said, apparently checking an advance by the Shi'ite fighters toward Aden.
So it sounds as though our drone strikes are what got him into this mess.

Should be interesting if Iran and Saudi Arabia start going at it even if by proxy with the nuclear peace talks with Iran going on in the background. If those leave the door open to Iran getting nuc weapons I would think the Saudi program would be getting into gear pretty soon.

http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-saudi-a ... 44147.html

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by AWS260 » Wed Mar 25, 2015 7:56 am

Rip wrote:So it sounds as though our drone strikes are what got him into this mess.
Not the drone strikes -- both the Houthi rebels and the Hadi regime oppose Al Qaeda. But the Houthi aren't big fans of the U.S., for the usual reasons.
The Houthis have been fighting the government intermittently since 2004, when the country was still led by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a longtime autocrat and United States ally. Mr. Saleh was overthrown in 2012 as the Arab Spring roiled the region. He was replaced by his longtime vice president, Mr. Hadi, in a peaceful transfer of power orchestrated by the Persian Gulf countries and the West.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Rip » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:16 am

Saudi Arabia has launched military operations in neighboring Yemen, where for months Houthi rebels have intensified their violent campaign against the government, the Saudi ambassador to the United States told reporters in Washington on Wednesday.

Adel al-Jubeir said the operation consisted of airstrikes on more than one city and in more than one region.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/25/middleeast/yemen-unrest/

The cynic in me notes.
Brent crude oil prices shot up nearly 6 percent on Thursday after Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies began a military operation in Yemen, although Asian importers said they were not immediately worried about supply disruptions.

The strike against Houthi rebels, who have driven the president from Yemen's capital Sanaa, could stoke concerns about the security of oil shipments from the Middle East.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/ ... Z020150326

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Grifman » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:32 am

Saudi's now say that they are sending in a huge force, 150,000 troops. Other nations are supplying planes and/or troops including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco, Egypt, the UAE, perhaps Pakistan and Jordan. This will be a quagmire IMO, but better theirs than ours. Now will see if all that money they've spent on US equipment does them any good. Now the question is what will Iran do?
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:24 am

Grifman wrote:Saudi's now say that they are sending in a huge force, 150,000 troops. Other nations are supplying planes and/or troops including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco, Egypt, the UAE, perhaps Pakistan and Jordan. This will be a quagmire IMO, but better theirs than ours. Now will see if all that money they've spent on US equipment does them any good. Now the question is what will Iran do?
I would expect that they would send additional arms (and possibly trainers) to the Houthi rebels, unless either: (1) the Houthi cause seems or becomes hopeless, or (2) they decide it's better to hold off temporarily during the U.S. nuclear talks.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Defiant » Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:06 am


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Carpet_pissr
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Carpet_pissr » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:12 pm

I guess we have just turned the corner from proxy war to direct war with this move, though Iran is still in the shadows. We'll see if they come out with a direct response. Verbiage from the military/foreign heads at the top level makes it sound like they (Iran) were directly attacked.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:44 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:I guess we have just turned the corner from proxy war to direct war with this move, though Iran is still in the shadows. We'll see if they come out with a direct response. Verbiage from the military/foreign heads at the top level makes it sound like they (Iran) were directly attacked.
If by "direct response" you mean, will the Iranian military get directly involved - I strongly doubt it (absent some dramatic change on the ground soon). It's way too risky compared to the reward for Iran to get involved beyond proxy conflict (i.e. beyond providing aid to the Houthis). If they wind up in any kind of shooting conflict with the U.S., then the U.S. could take advantage of it and send bombs and missiles at Iran to do damage to their nuclear program. The diplomatic cost of a military strike at Iran now would be huge, but the diplomatic cost of a military strike at Iran in the context of a regional conflict would be much smaller.

I don't know if the Saudis have the capability to do strikes at Iran (I kind of doubt it) but if they do (even if it would be a poor job) they might take advantage of that too.

And I don't see how Yemen matters enough for Iran to risk anything material.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Rip » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:48 pm

Yea, I don't think Iran wants to take control of Yemen at this point. They just want it to be another Syria. That is more valuable to them than actually taking it over.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Unagi » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:51 pm

El Guapo wrote:Doesn't a coup have to be by the military?
Not sure...
As, I've certainly heard the phrase "military coup", it seems to imply that there could be coups that aren't by the military?

I thought the definition was mainly that there was some group (usually the military) that was seen to be inline with the government, but that actually helped to overthrow it. Some 'gatekeeper' looks the other way.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Carpet_pissr » Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:06 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote:I guess we have just turned the corner from proxy war to direct war with this move, though Iran is still in the shadows. We'll see if they come out with a direct response. Verbiage from the military/foreign heads at the top level makes it sound like they (Iran) were directly attacked.
If by "direct response" you mean, will the Iranian military get directly involved - I strongly doubt it (absent some dramatic change on the ground soon). It's way too risky compared to the reward for Iran to get involved beyond proxy conflict (i.e. beyond providing aid to the Houthis). If they wind up in any kind of shooting conflict with the U.S., then the U.S. could take advantage of it and send bombs and missiles at Iran to do damage to their nuclear program. .
By proxy war, and where the real potential for the spark of direct conflict here is, is Sunni v. Shia, or Iran vs. Saudi Arabia - sorry, should have been more clear. The US is merely supportive in our role (currently at least) with these strikes, not a direct player.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:10 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote:I guess we have just turned the corner from proxy war to direct war with this move, though Iran is still in the shadows. We'll see if they come out with a direct response. Verbiage from the military/foreign heads at the top level makes it sound like they (Iran) were directly attacked.
If by "direct response" you mean, will the Iranian military get directly involved - I strongly doubt it (absent some dramatic change on the ground soon). It's way too risky compared to the reward for Iran to get involved beyond proxy conflict (i.e. beyond providing aid to the Houthis). If they wind up in any kind of shooting conflict with the U.S., then the U.S. could take advantage of it and send bombs and missiles at Iran to do damage to their nuclear program. .
By proxy war, and where the real potential for the spark of direct conflict here is, is Sunni v. Shia, or Iran vs. Saudi Arabia - sorry, should have been more clear. The US is merely supportive in our role (currently at least) with these strikes, not a direct player.
I think Iran is already involved a proxy war via the Houthis - i.e. via providing money and arms, at least. There's only so much more they can do short of actual intervention - I guess maybe sending special forces or something (though I doubt that they would risk that over Yemen).

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by Holman » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:19 pm

Unagi wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Doesn't a coup have to be by the military?
Not sure...
As, I've certainly heard the phrase "military coup", it seems to imply that there could be coups that aren't by the military?

I thought the definition was mainly that there was some group (usually the military) that was seen to be inline with the government, but that actually helped to overthrow it. Some 'gatekeeper' looks the other way.
I've always understood "military coup" to mean that military force was directly involved in the change of rule, and often that the generals themselves have assumed control of the government.

A plain non-military coup can occur when one faction of the ruling party seizes power and ousts another faction: one night El Presidente is arrested and his former Secretary of Narcotic Agriculture is now sitting behind the big desk. Obviously this can't happen if the military supports the old Presidente, but it's not uncommon. "The army remained in its barracks" is the journalistic cliche.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:24 pm

Holman wrote:
Unagi wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Doesn't a coup have to be by the military?
Not sure...
As, I've certainly heard the phrase "military coup", it seems to imply that there could be coups that aren't by the military?

I thought the definition was mainly that there was some group (usually the military) that was seen to be inline with the government, but that actually helped to overthrow it. Some 'gatekeeper' looks the other way.
I've always understood "military coup" to mean that military force was directly involved in the change of rule, and often that the generals themselves have assumed control of the government.

A plain non-military coup can occur when one faction of the ruling party seizes power and ousts another faction: one night El Presidente is arrested and his former Secretary of Narcotic Agriculture is now sitting behind the big desk. Obviously this can't happen if the military supports the old Presidente, but it's not uncommon. "The army remained in its barracks" is the journalistic cliche.
It's odd to apply the term to rebels though, right? When the rebels suddenly march in and seize the capital, I think of that as a successful rebellion, not as a coup.

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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by ImLawBoy » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:36 pm

You can also have a Palace Coup/Coup d'etat, which doesn't necessarily involve the military.
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Re: The End of Yemen?

Post by LordMortis » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:51 pm

Anytime you have an organized seizure from government, it's a coup isn't it?

Coup d'état
Coup de grâce
Coup deville
Coupesonic
Coupessetic.
counting coup (with a coupesstick)
Chicken Coup

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