Brexit

[El Guapo]

IIRC Britain was part of the American superstate in (Orwell's) 1984, so it makes sense.

[GreenGoo]

That'll show'em!

There aren't eye rollies big enough for this "logic".

Lighten up Francis.

[LordMortis]

There is no set of words that can be assembled in a magical order that will convince a Trump/Brexit supporter to change their position, because their position is based on things that aren't real.

Is the second half of this true? From where I sit, Trump/Brexit supporters that don't express bigotry seem to base their position on being the only way to express their powerlessness, essentially their impotent rage, which in the case of Brexit, became a potent rage. This the voice of the people who have been ignored and squeezed out for corporate profits.

Now redirecting their anger, sure. Are you going to tell someone raging at corporate welfare that Clinton, who sat on the Board of WalMart during its biggest, nastiest, destruction of the middle class years, is the benefactor of the returning to a large middle class?

I haven't spoken to many Brexit supporter but I can only imagine the same rage and the same feeling of a lack of options. As far as I can tell it was horrible decision but it was decision made because people faced with all bad options often eventually choose the "fuck you" option of bad options.

I need to listen to Brexiters before agreeing or disagreeing with you. For Trump, I disagree. Most of his supporters that I've spoken to are choosing him because they are choosing the "Fuck you" of bad options. You are right that words won't change their positions. But different having other options might to change the conversation might. Their position is based on the reality that their piece of the pie is shrinking. And that's reality. Changing the magic order of the words isn't stopping the filling from hemorrhaging out to the top pie holders. Trump is a bad decision. But he's an expression of "Fuck you" and I only see that getting worse over the next four years. I don't fear Trump's election. I fear the Congress and president we will be looking at in 2020.

[RunningMn9]

Is the second half of this true?

Their position is based on an emotional response to their perception of reality. The circumstances of their reality can be real (i.e. life blows), but the CAUSES of their reality are generally invented (i.e. any answer other than one that implicates them).

Or they are like these two old men that feel like they need to be saved, despite living in the lap of goddamn luxury. Which is irrational nonsense.

[El Guapo]

Is the second half of this true?

Their position is based on an emotional response to their perception of reality. The circumstances of their reality can be real (i.e. life blows), but the CAUSES of their reality are generally invented (i.e. any answer other than one that implicates them).

Or they are like these two old men that feel like they need to be saved, despite living in the lap of goddamn luxury. Which is irrational nonsense.

Back around college when I was studying abroad, I was staying at a hostel in Europe. Another woman there was railing against "the system" and saying generally pro-communist things. Over the course of the conversation it came out that her family (who was evidently very wealthy) took a month long cruise every year. I was like, I gotta say, you seem kind of ingrateful to the system given what the system has given to you.

[Pyperkub]

You shouldn't assume that a Trump or Brexit supporter is an idiot or is ignorant.

While I understand your follow up point (that it's hard to convince someone of something when you open with the premise "you're an idiot"), that presupposes that there was any chance of convincing them in the first place, with rational logic.

And that's your mistake. There is no set of words that can be assembled in a magical order that will convince a Trump/Brexit supporter to change their position, because their position is based on things that aren't real. Telling that that they are real, and indulging them in that, will simply validate the position they derived from those things. Telling them that they are false forces them to entrench and validate the position they derived from those things.

I don't buy this (at least not close to 100%). This (and many other current political issues) can be incredibly complex and the fact of the matter is that this complexity is incredibly hard to communicate clearly and accurately, and incredibly easy to spread FUD about. And FUD just reinforces the ways the electorate wants simplicity in its voting/political issues. The Internet has made both parts of this equation more difficult - it's easier to get information, but the accuracy and clarity of that information is just as lacking, and there is probably more FUD spread on teh interwebs than ever before. In today's society it's also the mis-information being spread via FUD as well (see anti-vaxxers, global warming sceptics, etc.). There is a huge cottage industry around spreading mis-information on teh interwebs (look at O'keefe's success), and it's only getting bigger.

[cheeba]

And that's your mistake. There is no set of words that can be assembled in a magical order that will convince a Trump/Brexit supporter to change their position, because their position is based on things that aren't real.

Just like there's no point trying to convince Christian America that gay marriage should be allowed or marijuana should be legalized?

[RunningMn9]

Saying that there's no point in A because Z, does not imply that there's no point in F because W.

Whether the point can be made has to do with the rationality of the position. The less rational, the more pointless the effort. The things driving Trumps popularity are quite irrational. To LM's point, it isn't that they are 100% delusional, but their position is clouded by irrationality.

As an example, there are people that refer (genuinely) to Clinton as the "Butcher of Benghazi". Those aren't people that you can sit down with, show respect for their opinion, and rationally persuade them that they are wrong. It's impossible because their position takes something from the real world (that Benghazi happened) and entirely wraps it in an impenetrable fantasy.

For some Trump supporters, it's their irrational fear of illegals/Other. For others it's their own irrational nativism/racism bullshit. For others it's take the facts of their plight, and wrapping themselves in the blanket that Trump provides (it's not your fault, it's the fault of those people over there).

To be fair, there are plenty of Clinton and Bernie supporters in the same boat (although I personally find the phenomenon more prevalent in Bernie supporters).

[El Guapo]

Labor party passes no confidence vote in Jeremy Corbyn by 172-40 margin. Corbyn is nonetheless refusing to resign.

Looks like British politics is in a really good place right now.

[El Guapo]

Also, a Frexit vote is almost certainly coming. At this point I would say that the odds of a Frexit are around 50%.

[stessier]

Labor party passes no confidence vote in Jeremy Corbyn by 172-40 margin. Corbyn is nonetheless refusing to resign.

Looks like British politics is in a really good place right now.

All I can think of is the "Cast no stones" line...

[El Guapo]

Labor party passes no confidence vote in Jeremy Corbyn by 172-40 margin. Corbyn is nonetheless refusing to resign.

Looks like British politics is in a really good place right now.

All I can think of is the "Cast no stones" line...

I know, right? But it gives me some (small) comfort when thinking about American politics.

Also Boris Johnson, who was the favorite to be the next Prime Minister, has surprised everyone by announcing that he's not running. Which is mainly good, insofar as Boris Johnson appears to be Britain's Trump. But it does add to the uncertainty and turmoil a bit.

[hepcat]

Apparently this is because Boris was stabbed in the back by Gove after Gove announced he was running for leader.

I kind of feel like he deserved it though...

[malchior]

It definitely looks like Brexit has torn apart both major parties - the Tories certainly have their knives out at the moment.

Also some nickle analysis - The Economist released harsh economic forecasts that predict lower growth, high deficits, and more strain on social spending. The exact opposite of what was promised by 'Leave'. It probably is a rehash of 'Remain' campaign material but it'll be interesting to see how close they come. Another interesting factoid was that the Leave vote was strongest in areas where EU subsidies were the highest. Makes sense since they are probably the poorest and angriest but they lashed out at the hand that helped them. Things could be grim if a downturn or even worse a strong downturn sets in.

[Max Peck]

Britain picks the wrong time to play games

Most leading British politicians spent much of June 27, the Monday after the country voted to leave the European Union, congratulating each other for accepting the will of the people. Parliamentarians from both parties took a peculiar pride in having abdicated their responsibility. The winners expressed magnanimity and the losers mostly promised to respect what they called the will of the people. To those watching from the outside, this sort of politics is reckless, bizarre and unnecessary.

It is reckless because the UK faces a tremendous economic and political challenge. Leaving the EU is a gamble, with small possible economic gains and large likely losses. An isolated and mistrusted nation faces the withering away of ties with its largest trading partner. But many Remain partisans are being sucked into the Leave campaigner’s fantasy world, in which perfidious Britain might still get a good deal with the EU. The recovery of the benchmark FTSE 100 above 6,300 points on June 29, back where it was the day before the vote, reflects those idle dreams.

Under the circumstances, the almost unquestioned acceptance of the referendum’s result is bizarre. Why continue down this path? Why alienate already angry voters on both sides? Remain supporters are already furious, and the Leave voters are in for bad news. They face some combination of economic decline and the betrayal of their wish to hide in a fantasy pre-globalisation world.

The best explanation for this peculiar behaviour is not the one Prime Minister David Cameron offered, respect for democracy. It comes from another British tradition – games. We won, you lost. Chin up, take it like a grownup. Shake hands and move on.

Everything is wrong with this approach. The decision to leave or stay in the European Union is not a sporting match with a winner, a loser, clear rules, a referee and a replay next year. This question is complex. It should be answered only by people who are able to make informed and rational judgments. To give the people the opportunity to override the legislature is an insult to the principle of representative democracy.

The British basically invented this stable form of democracy, but they still decided to treat EU membership as a game. But they forgot a basic principle of sports, fair rules. In this referendum, the terms were anything but fair. The Leave campaign did not have to present any plan, any forecast, any concrete explanations of anything. They took full advantage of this un-level playing field by encouraging voters’ illusions, fears and hatred.

In sports, it is acceptable to play by the rules, even when they appear unfair. The Leave campaign, though, actively cheated. The one big number it touted – a saving of 350 million pounds a week in contributions to Europe – was a lie. The assurance that the 1.2 million British people living in the EU had nothing to fear was a lie. The claim that the UK could easily negotiate a good exit deal was a lie. An effective referee would have disqualified the Leave side, and given Remain victory by default. Britain has a watchdog for policing untruths in commercial advertising. It does not have one for political campaigns.

Instead, the match was played to the end and the Leave campaign declared the winner. But in such a closely called election, the numbers aren’t decisive. This was a three-way election, with 28 percent of the electorate not voting, 37 percent in favour of leaving and 35 percent for Remain. If non-voters were younger than the average, and had gone to the polls after all – a question that is now largely academic – Remain may have been the winner.

So a cheating team just manages a draw in a match that was rigged in its favour. There is no reason for the strong Remain majority in parliament to be good sports about a plebiscite they did not lose. The nation’s elected representatives should be looking for the least incendiary way to get around the result. They have a duty to forget the game.

It would have been far better never to have called a referendum. Whatever happens, irreversible damage has already been done to the British reputation, among both potential investors and European governments. The economy has suffered from the uncertainty. The right decision now, to ignore last week’s vote, will add shame and ridicule. It would require careful selling to voters to avoid political unrest. But those are lesser evils than the problems that would come from being good losers.

At least demographics are on the side of Britain in Europe. Remain won decisively among young adults, by a three-to-one margin according to a YouGov poll. That reflects the coming generation’s increasingly global perspective. The elite of this group are almost as much European as British. As they gradually take power, they will want to join the European project, bringing understanding and enthusiasm. The next prime minister would do well to stop playing games and make their path smoother.

[El Guapo]

I will say that in my experience people are reasonable (or unreasonable), not positions. I have met reasonable communists and unreasonable major party members. Obviously there are reasonable Brexit (even Trump!) supporters that I could have a reasonable and productive back-and-forth discussion with. And the EU is a deeply flawed institution, so while voting to leave seems mostly crazy, I do understand the desire to leave.

That said, it's not surprising that there is a disproportionate amount of racist supporters among the Trump and Brexit campaigns given what they are advocating for.

[Defiant]

Labor party passes no confidence vote in Jeremy Corbyn by 172-40 margin. Corbyn is nonetheless refusing to resign.

What is it about far left wing politicians hating math?

[Zaxxon]

Inside Boris Johnson's HQ as the results came in...

[Max Peck]

Labor party passes no confidence vote in Jeremy Corbyn by 172-40 margin. Corbyn is nonetheless refusing to resign.

What is it about far left wing politicians hating math?

It's not as straight forward as the Sanders situation. Corbyn is unpopular with the Labour party establishment, but is popular with the grassroots membership. My understanding is that if they do have another leadership race, he'd probably still win.

[Defiant]

Corbyn is unpopular with the Labour party establishment, but is popular with the grassroots membership. My understanding is that if they do have another leadership race, he'd probably still win.

Perhaps, but IIUC, there's been some turnover in the party, with a significant number of people joining the party (presumably because of Corbyn) and even more leaving (no doubt helped by the anti-semitism and racism scandal)

[Max Peck]

Corbyn is unpopular with the Labour party establishment, but is popular with the grassroots membership. My understanding is that if they do have another leadership race, he'd probably still win.

Perhaps, but IIUC, there's been some turnover in the party, with a significant number of people joining the party (presumably because of Corbyn) and even more leaving (no doubt helped by the anti-semitism and racism scandal)

Perhaps, but it's only been 9 months since he won the last leadership race and he's currently still getting support from the grassroots and trade union leaders. Under the circumstances, I don't see his position as irrational. If he stands again and loses, he's no worse off than if he simply capitulated now, and he has a non-zero chance of winning. As for Labour itself, they're probably screwed either way -- the damage from the infighting is already done, regardless of how the leadership issue is resolved.

[Defiant]

Speaking of Corbyn, he seems somewhat tone deaf, comparing Israel to ISIS while trying to speak out against anti-Semitism:

"Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel or the Netanyahu government than our Muslim friends are for those of various self-styled Islamic states or organizations," the opposition leader said as he announced the results of a report investigating accusations of anti-Semitism within the Labour Party.

Tzipi Livni shot back:

[Carpet_pissr]

Inside Boris Johnson's HQ as the results came in...

Fantastic. "Dickweasel" has been added to my vocabulary.

[Pyperkub]

You shouldn't assume that a Trump or Brexit supporter is an idiot or is ignorant.

While I understand your follow up point (that it's hard to convince someone of something when you open with the premise "you're an idiot"), that presupposes that there was any chance of convincing them in the first place, with rational logic.

And that's your mistake. There is no set of words that can be assembled in a magical order that will convince a Trump/Brexit supporter to change their position, because their position is based on things that aren't real. Telling that that they are real, and indulging them in that, will simply validate the position they derived from those things. Telling them that they are false forces them to entrench and validate the position they derived from those things.

I don't buy this (at least not close to 100%). This (and many other current political issues) can be incredibly complex and the fact of the matter is that this complexity is incredibly hard to communicate clearly and accurately, and incredibly easy to spread FUD about. And FUD just reinforces the ways the electorate wants simplicity in its voting/political issues. The Internet has made both parts of this equation more difficult - it's easier to get information, but the accuracy and clarity of that information is just as lacking, and there is probably more FUD spread on teh interwebs than ever before. In today's society it's also the mis-information being spread via FUD as well (see anti-vaxxers, global warming sceptics, etc.). There is a huge cottage industry around spreading mis-information on teh interwebs (look at O'keefe's success), and it's only getting bigger.

A follow up look at the succeses of bad ideas in the marketplace of ideas. Pretty interesting.

There is certainly some truth in the thought that competition between ideas is necessary for the advancement of our understanding. But the belief that the best ideas will always succeed is rather like the faith that unregulated financial markets will always produce the best economic outcomes. As the IMF chief Christine Lagarde put this standard wisdom laconically in Davos: “The market sorts things out, eventually.” Maybe so. But while we wait, very bad things might happen.

Zombies don’t occur in physical marketplaces – take technology, for example. No one now buys Betamax video recorders, because that technology has been superseded and has no chance of coming back. (The reason that other old technologies, such as the manual typewriter or the acoustic piano, are still in use is that, according to the preferences of their users, they have not been superseded.) So zombies such as flat-Earthism simply shouldn’t be possible in a well‑functioning marketplace of ideas. And yet – they live. How come?

One clue is provided by economics. It turns out that the marketplace of economic ideas itself is infested with zombies.

I love the concept of Zombie Ideas...

PS how is it we don't have a zombie smiley???

[Defiant]

Nigel Farage resigns as Ukip leader after 'achieving political ambition' of Brexit

It is the third time he has resigned as Ukip leader, but he dismissed the idea of coming back again in the future and claimed standing as an MP was no longer top of his bucket list.

[RunningMn9]

What a coward. "It was my goal to get Britain out of the EU...but I totally want to leave all the fallout of that to someone else. Kthnx bye."

[GreenGoo]

What a coward. "It was my goal to get Britain out of the EU...but I totally want to leave all the fallout of that to someone else. Kthnx bye."

Yep. Being really far away and only expecting to feel some of the fallout, I'm finding most of the post-Brexit vote news coming out of the UK, hilarious.

After his little "No one's laughing at me now" speech, I can't help but feel he's a total child.

[Jaymann]

Perhaps a sardonic diabolical laugh or two.

[Rip]

That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.

[GreenGoo]

That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.

Pound is still down (being reported, I didn't look), production is down, and multiple companies are trying to decide what to do with their UK personnel/sites. There is a ton of speculation on how to go about not brexiting despite the referendum. The MP responsible for this fiasco and the PM have both resigned (which is not normally a sign that everything is fine).

I'm sure Brits will be glad to hear that Rip has given them the all clear though.

[Defiant]

Happy Amexit Day, everyone!

[Blackhawk]

..and that's just the vote. They haven't even worked out the conditions of the actual exit yet.

[GreenGoo]

Happy Amexit Day, everyone!

[Blackhawk]

This is the part where I steal that.

[El Guapo]

That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.

Pound is still down (being reported, I didn't look), production is down, and multiple companies are trying to decide what to do with their UK personnel/sites. There is a ton of speculation on how to go about not brexiting despite the referendum. The MP responsible for this fiasco and the PM have both resigned (which is not normally a sign that everything is fine).

I'm sure Brits will be glad to hear that Rip has given them the all clear though.

The multiple resignations sure give a whiff of "this was a really bad idea", even among the Leave people.

[RunningMn9]

Pound is still down (being reported, I didn't look)

It's down even further. When I went to Scotland last year I think we had to pay close to $1.65 to exchange USD to GBP. They are down to $1.30 this morning, which is the lowest it's been since 1985.

[hepcat]

That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.

Government is losing high ranking officials left and right, the pound is down, the country may lose Scotland (at the very least)....

...yup, all is going well.

[GreenGoo]

The multiple resignations sure give a whiff of "this was a really bad idea", even among the Leave people.

You should see the articles coming out of the UK patting Farage on the back for his political accomplishments and well timed resignation. It's bizarre how much spin has been applied by certain publications.

[GreenGoo]

That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.

Government is losing high ranking officials left and right, the pound is down, the country may lose Scotland (at the very least)....

...yup, all is going well.

Real estate development is down 35% (if I recall correctly), and a prominent 2.9 bil pound real estate fund has been frozen to prevent wholesale sell off. Just to throw some random news on the fire.

[El Guapo]

That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.

Government is losing high ranking officials left and right, the pound is down, the country may lose Scotland (at the very least)....

...yup, all is going well.

It's kind of odd. I would have thought that the near certainty of losing Scotland would be enough to deter Brexit, but I guess not. I wonder if this also bolsters the odds of Irish unification - if Northern Ireland wants to stay in the EU, would they consider exiting the UK, and if so, would they then consider some type of confederation (at least) with Ireland, rather than being totally independent?

That said, I think people are underestimating the odds of a Frexit, or at least a threatened Frexit, which (as it would probably be fatal for the EU as we know it) would shake up the whole landscape on this entirely.