Brexit

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GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo »

Last week any institution employing foreign economists were dropped from being consulted by the UK government, presumably amid "security concerns". This included at least one prominent university that had been consulting for years because some of their professors were foreign citizens.

The inference was that they were saying "bad things" about the probable outcome of a Brexit.
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Pyperkub
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Re: Brexit

Post by Pyperkub »

GreenGoo wrote:As usual, the articles coming out of the UK are doom and gloom or bright and shiny.

For example, exports are thriving! :D

Let's take a look at what google sent me today:

Pound at 30 year low (as pointed out above).
French President warns about heavy price UK will pay if it leaves the EU.
UK Scientists warn science will suffer if Brexit goes through.
Juncker (president of the European Commission) calls for "intransigence" with Britain over Brexit negotiations.
Trade deficit widening (counter to the exports thriving mentioned above).

There is a distinct lack of pro-Brexit articles today, but that's just random chance. Next week we'll hear about how business is booming (in specific sectors) or how a single individual business had record profits etc.

Just like anywhere, if you pick your media carefully, things will be exactly as you think they are.
Charles Stross takes a look:
A hard Brexit means that we will lose access to the Single Market—the WTO default terms the hard Brexiters so glibly talk about mean that anyone exporting goods from the UK will have to pay a 20% tarrif, and exports to the UK from the EU (our largest trading partner by a huge margin) will also be liable for duty at that rate. This is in addition to VAT at 20% (and dislocating UK VAT and tax revenue from the rest of the EU is going to be a nightmare on its own). We have to buy those raw inputs using funds in Pounds Sterling, which (see graph above) has just fallen off a fucking cliff. Translation: anything we buy from overseas now costs about 10% more than it did a week ago, and Sterling has dropped by roughly 20% since the Brexit referendum 4 months ago, to an all-time historic low.

But what about services? Well, a hard Brexit means an end to passporting, and the financial services sector will take a hit. Currently London punches way above its weight as a global financial center because the unacknowledged truth is that Sterling is the EU's unofficial secondary reserve currency—with Britain in the EU, if the Euro turns wobbly, funds managers can switch to Sterling, and vice versa. If Britain leaves the EU Sterling will no longer be a safe haven for EU investment vehicles, and so a rather large chunk of the financial services industry will go down in flames (or, more accurately, relocate to Frankfurt, Paris, and even Dublin).

Upshot: the service sector will be hit, and hard, at a point where the goods-producing industries will be undergoing a protracted cash flow crunch: the labour they apply to imported raw materials to turn them into exportable products will be cheaper in global terms, it's true, but they'll be buying the raw materials on credit using an unstable, rapidly devaluing currency. (See also Russia. Except we don't have Siberia to strip-mine.)

But here's the worst part of all.

The UK is not self-sufficient in food. The UK imports roughly 40% of the total food consumed, and the proportion is rising. Nor is it obvious that we can produce more food: to get close to self-sufficiency from 1939-45 required a world war, mobilization, and the conversion of all private gardens into kitchen gardens, along with rationing, and the UK population has grown by roughly 25% since then. While modern technology-intensive agricultural techniques can improve productivity, this is capital intensive, and the one thing a Post-hard Brexit Britain with a crashed currency and a financial sector fleeing to the continent is going to be short of is capital. Also, it takes years to roll out that sort of infrastructure upgrade, even if the will is there.

Food bank use is at record levels and hunger is a desperate concern for low-income (including low-earning employed) families. And the currency we buy our food imports with just crashed 10% this week, and 25% over the past four months.

If a Hard Brexit happens, then Sterling will almost certainly dip below Dollar parity for the first time in history. Imported foods will cost 40% more in real terms than they did in 2015. And there will be additional 20% tarrifs levelled on top.

I'm calling Hard Brexit a road to mass starvation and famine-grade deaths on a scale not seen in the UK since the Hungry Forties (that's the 1840s, not the 1940s
).
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck »

Santa Claus to preside over High Court case regarding whether the government can enact Brexit without Parliamentary approval.
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The need for Parliament to give its approval before the Brexit process starts is of huge "constitutional importance", the High Court has heard.

QC Lord Pannick said the case "raises an issue... concerning the limits of the power of the executive".

The High Court is considering whether ministers can invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the trigger for formal talks, without MPs passing a new law.

But the government said the EU would not be rejoined via "the back door".

Ministers argue they are entitled to act under ancient powers of Royal Prerogative.
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Unagi
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Re: Brexit

Post by Unagi »

Lord Pannick?

Sounds like one of our OO Avatars. I love it.

Chaosraven, PainGod and LordMortis should be able to wipe the floor with Lord Pannick.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

Not so fast:
A senior British court on Thursday dealt a severe blow to Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans to begin the process of exiting the European Union early next year, ruling she must get Parliament’s approval before she acts.

The decision greatly complicates May’s stated plan to trigger Article 50 — the never-before-used mechanism for a country to leave the European Union — by the end of March at the latest.

Most members of Parliament opposed Brexit in the lead-up to Britain’s June referendum, when voters opted for an exit by a 52-to-48 margin. On the streets, however, the court decision risked setting off an angry backlash from voters who favored leaving the European Union and believed the issue was settled.

May’s lawyers argued that she had the right to begin the Brexit process without first getting Parliament’s consent. But a three-judge panel on the London-based High Court sided with a group of plaintiffs who contended that Parliament must first weigh in.

“The most fundamental rule of the U.K.’s constitution is that Parliament is sovereign and can make and unmake any law it chooses,” the judges wrote. “As an aspect of the sovereignty of Parliament it has been established for hundreds of years that the Crown — i.e. the Government of the day — cannot by exercise of prerogative powers override legislation enacted by Parliament.”

May is now likely to appeal Thursday's ruling to the Supreme Court, with justices likely to take the case in December. A Downing Street spokesman, speaking on the typical condition of anonymity, said that the government still intends to trigger Article 50 on its original schedule.
...
The court ruling — assuming it is not overturned on appeal — sets up a crucial decision in Parliament. Members of the ruling Conservative Party were almost evenly split on whether Britain should stay in the E.U. or leave when the country voted June 23. But solid majorities of the other major parties in Parliament — including Labour, the Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats — all opposed an exit.

May, who took office in July following the resignation of David Cameron, has only a narrow majority in Parliament and could struggle to pass legislation authorizing the start of Britain's departure.
...
The negotiations [with the E.U.] are likely to focus on the trade-off between Britain's desire both to control E.U. immigration into the country and to retain access to the E.U.'s common market. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, a leading Brexit proponent, has said the government's objective in the talks “should be having our cake and eating it.”

But European leaders have said that won't be possible, and that Britain will have to allow immigrants if it wants to maintain the market access that is at the core of its trading relationships with Europe.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo »

Last couple of weeks have been typical "sky is falling!" "things are awesome" but the Bank of England just improved its economic forecast for 2017 and left rates alone, which is somewhat objective evidence that things are going "ok".

As Isgrim points out, their Supreme court has decided that Article 50 can't be trigger unilaterally, which means the vote doesn't mean anything if parliament doesn't vote to leave. Considering the popular vote was taken, it will be interesting if parliament doesn't follow suit.
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Defiant
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant »

Well, Corbyn is saying that Labour will push for Brexit.

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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo »

GreenGoo wrote:Last couple of weeks have been typical "sky is falling!" "things are awesome" but the Bank of England just improved its economic forecast for 2017 and left rates alone, which is somewhat objective evidence that things are going "ok".

As Isgrim points out, their Supreme court has decided that Article 50 can't be trigger unilaterally, which means the vote doesn't mean anything if parliament doesn't vote to leave. Considering the popular vote was taken, it will be interesting if parliament doesn't follow suit.
Well, it's going to be an interesting political conundrum, because if Parliament has to vote, each MP is going to have to actually go on the record as opposed to just shrugging at the referendum. Have there been any polls on Brexit lately? What happens if popular opinion is now pro-Remain?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Sepiche »

As I understand it, depending on how the Supreme Court rules, it could also mean the Scottish Parliament will also have to vote to leave which could derail the whole thing.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Have there been any polls on Brexit lately? What happens if popular opinion is now pro-Remain?
A slight majority are pro-Remain.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant »

Labour will block the UK’s exit from the European Union if the Government is unable to guarantee access to the single market, Jeremy Corbyn has said.
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo »

:roll:
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

UK Business Insider
The relationship between Britain's Brexit ministers and the EU looks to have hit a new low, after Boris Johnson and David Davis were branded arrogant and clueless by officials with exit talks on the horizon.

In a particularly damning statement, EU parliamentarian Manfred Weber described Johnson as "unbelievable" and said that he had lost respect for the foreign secretary over contradictory statements he has made about Turkey.

Johnson argued during the Leave campaign that one of the reasons Brits should vote for Brexit is to avoid being part of a Union that would soon include Turkey, but in September said he would back Turkey's bid for EU membership.

"It is unbelievable, frankly speaking. It is a provocation," said Weber, a close ally of Angela Merkel, the Times reports.
...
May's decision to appoint Johnson as foreign secretary when she became prime minister surprised many, given the latter's history of gaffes relating to other countries and their leaders. It is a move that looks be backfiring, with Johnson's reputation among his European counterparts seemingly getting worse with each week that passes.
...
Last week, Italian minister Carlo Calenda said he felt insulted by Johnson after the Tory MP suggested Italy should push for Britain to remain in the European Single Market otherwise it would be forced to sell less prosecco. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Johnson's German counterpart, told colleagues that he couldn't stand to be in the same room as the British minister, according to a Financial Times report.

Another frustration among EU officials is the mystery surrounding what Britain actually wants from Brexit. "I didn’t hear anything new," Weber said after meeting with Davis on Tuesday. "Among them there is no idea what Brexit really means."
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by geezer »

Isgrimnur wrote:UK Business Insider
The relationship between Britain's Brexit ministers and the EU looks to have hit a new low, after Boris Johnson and David Davis were branded arrogant and clueless by officials with exit talks on the horizon.

In a particularly damning statement, EU parliamentarian Manfred Weber described Johnson as "unbelievable" and said that he had lost respect for the foreign secretary over contradictory statements he has made about Turkey.

Johnson argued during the Leave campaign that one of the reasons Brits should vote for Brexit is to avoid being part of a Union that would soon include Turkey, but in September said he would back Turkey's bid for EU membership.

"It is unbelievable, frankly speaking. It is a provocation," said Weber, a close ally of Angela Merkel, the Times reports.
...
May's decision to appoint Johnson as foreign secretary when she became prime minister surprised many, given the latter's history of gaffes relating to other countries and their leaders. It is a move that looks be backfiring, with Johnson's reputation among his European counterparts seemingly getting worse with each week that passes.
...
Last week, Italian minister Carlo Calenda said he felt insulted by Johnson after the Tory MP suggested Italy should push for Britain to remain in the European Single Market otherwise it would be forced to sell less prosecco. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Johnson's German counterpart, told colleagues that he couldn't stand to be in the same room as the British minister, according to a Financial Times report.

Another frustration among EU officials is the mystery surrounding what Britain actually wants from Brexit. "I didn’t hear anything new," Weber said after meeting with Davis on Tuesday. "Among them there is no idea what Brexit really means."

Typical populist bullshit. Get the rabble all fired up with nationalism and xenophobic nonsense, then try to maintain some semblance of rationality on the world stage, but come off looking like a schizophrenic incompetant when you try to appease the idiot masses at home that expected you to actually follow through with a century-old plan in a modern global economy. I wonder if the Brexit leaders (or Trump) will be able to control what they've unleashed when the people figure it out?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

BBC
Theresa May has said the UK "cannot possibly" remain within the European single market, as staying in it would mean "not leaving the EU at all".

The PM promised to push for the "freest possible trade" with European countries and warned the EU that to try to "punish" the UK would be "an act of calamitous self-harm".
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Jeff V »

geezer wrote: I wonder if the Brexit leaders (or Trump) will be able to control what they've unleashed when the people figure it out?
What makes you think the rabble will ever figure it out? They are gobbling up lies like it's the stuff of life. No amount of discreditation will stop them from feeding on such copious amounts of bullshit.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

No Welshing
The Welsh Assembly does not have a legal right to be consulted by UK ministers triggering Brexit, the Supreme Court has ruled.
...
[T]he court dismissed Welsh ministers' argument the assembly should be consulted on starting Brexit.

Giving the judgement on Tuesday, President of the Supreme Court Lord Neuberger said: "On the devolution issues, the court unanimously rules that UK ministers are not legally compelled to consult the devolved legislatures before triggering Article 50.

"The devolution statutes were enacted on the assumption that the UK would be a member of the EU, but they do not require it.

"Relations with the EU are a matter for the UK government."

The Welsh Government had argued that if MPs did not vote on Article 50, it would undermine the basis for devolution.

The Welsh Government had also argued that using royal prerogative powers to trigger Article 50 short-circuited the Sewel Convention, which requires Welsh assembly members to vote on legislation which affects the Welsh devolution settlement.

The judgement said that the Sewel Convention was a political constraint on the activity of the UK parliament, but that the policing of its scope and operation was not within the constitutional remit of the courts.

In December, the UK government appealed against a High Court ruling that Parliament must approve the Article 50 process of leaving the EU.

However, a majority of the judges dismissed the argument that the prime minister could trigger Brexit using crown prerogative - powers used by ministers that do not require the permission of MPs.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Jaymann »

Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

BBC
The government has seen off an attempt to add conditions to its Brexit bill as a Conservative rebellion was avoided.

MPs rejected a bid by Labour's Chris Leslie to force the government to consult Parliament on the deal struck with the EU before it is finalised.

It came after ministers pledged that a "meaningful" vote would be offered.

Labour and some Tories had pushed for MPs to have a decisive say on the final terms, but the 326 to 293 vote meant the bill remained unchanged.
...
Several other attempts to amend the draft legislation, which if passed will authorise the prime minister to formally begin Brexit negotiations under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, were also rejected during more than seven hours of debate.
...
Asked what would happen if Parliament rejected the Brexit deal or if there was no agreement with the EU to vote upon, Mr Jones said that in each scenario the UK would still leave the EU but "fall back on other arrangements".

This would effectively see the UK default to World Trade Organization trade rules, involving potential tariffs on exports and imports.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by em2nought »

All the UK has to do is make the BBC bring back Downton Abbey and they'll be solvent for another decade. :wink:
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Cause "stone" is an imperial unit.

Post by Defiant »

Looks like Britain might go back to the stone age *rimshot*
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

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It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

March 29
Article 50, the formal notification of Britain's intention to leave the EU, will be triggered on March 29, a Downing Street spokesperson confirmed on Monday morning.

The notification will take the form of a letter addressed to Donald Tusk, President of the European Council.
...
The spokesperson added that Downing Street expects a response from EU up to 48 hours afterwards and hopes that divorce negotiations with the 28-nation bloc can get underway as soon as possible.
...
Reacting to the news, Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron accused Prime Minister May of leading the country into Brexit "with a plan and without a clue" of what she is doing.

Farron, who wants a second referendum on Britain's EU membership, said: "Theresa May is embarking on an extreme and divisive Brexit. She has rushed this through without a plan, and without a clue."

He added: "She has chosen the hardest and most divisive form of Brexit, choosing to take us out of the Single Market before she has even tried to negotiate. That’s why we believe the people should have the final say over the Conservative Brexit deal.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

Set the clock. Two years to get it done.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant »

EU's Brexit negotiator demands all talks are conducted in French

Would it be sufficent if they just spoke in a silly french accent? If so, I think they've got just the guy.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Jeff V »

Doesn't Queen Lizzy speak French? The British monarchs all used to speak French. I considered it the #1 reason for the decline and fall of the monarchy government paradigm.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck »

Snap!
In a shock announcement, Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday called for an early general election to be held June 8 to seek a strong mandate as she negotiates Britain's exit from the European Union.

Standing outside 10 Downing Street, May said she would ask the House of Commons on Wednesday to back her call for an election, just two years after the last vote and three years before the next scheduled date in May 2020.

She said that since Britons voted to leave the EU in June, the country had come together, but politicians had not. She said the political divisions "risk our ability to make a success of Brexit."

At present, May's governing Conservatives have a small majority, with 330 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons.

With the main opposition Labour Party weakened and divided under left-wing leader Jeremy Corbyn and the pro-EU Liberal Democrats holding just nine Commons seats, May is calculating that the election will bring her an expanded crop of Conservative lawmakers.

That would make it easier for her to ignore opposition calls for a softer EU exit - making compromises to retain some benefits of membership - and to face down hardliners within her own party who want a no-compromise "hard Brexit" that many economists fear could be devastating.

May triggered a two-year countdown to Britain's exit from the EU last month, and high-stakes negotiations to settle divorce terms and agree on a new relationship are expected to start within weeks.
That doesn't give the Russians much time to spin up operations -- they'd most likely have been planning on the scheduled 2020 election timeframe. #RedUnderEveryBed
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Re: Brexit

Post by Paingod »

Will this be the new thing in politics? Surprise voting, so the Ruskies can't influence the populace ahead of time?
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo »

Labour campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU, but Corbyn says he will respect voters' decision to leave. He said Labour would fight the election promising a fairer society and economy, and "a Brexit that works for all."
How does this make sense? If you were anti-Brexit before, and presumably you think that it will have a variety of negative consequences for Britain, and there's going to be another election, why not make the case that Brexit is bad and that Britain should reconsider before leaving the EU?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

I'm pretty sure that the EU would be calling 'no backsies' regardless of who wins. The exit provision has been triggered. That ship has sailed. Now it's all about how much brinkmanship or cooperation those in power care to engage in.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo »

Isgrimnur wrote:I'm pretty sure that the EU would be calling 'no backsies' regardless of who wins. The exit provision has been triggered. That ship has sailed. Now it's all about how much brinkmanship or cooperation those in power care to engage in.
I don't see how that would make sense on the part of the EU, other than foolish spite. Le Pen could plausibly win the French presidency, and she wants to have France exit the EU. If Britain *and* France leave the EU, then the EU may well be doomed - at a minimum it would be pretty crippled. Especially given that, how on Earth would it benefit the EU to force a Britain out of the EU that has changed its mind on Brexit?

Also, so Britain filed its leave notice. If both parties (Britain and the EU) want Britain to stay, then I'm pretty sure that they could find a way to have them stay.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote:
Labour campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU, but Corbyn says he will respect voters' decision to leave. He said Labour would fight the election promising a fairer society and economy, and "a Brexit that works for all."
How does this make sense? If you were anti-Brexit before, and presumably you think that it will have a variety of negative consequences for Britain, and there's going to be another election, why not make the case that Brexit is bad and that Britain should reconsider before leaving the EU?
IIUC, Corbyn was privately pro-Brexit, but publicly was anti-Brexit for show (and did a lackluster job attacking brexit)
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

NBC News
The time limit creates a big problem for a country such as Britain wishing to negotiate advantageous exit terms, since once notice has been given the process can only be halted or extended by unanimous agreement, giving any member state a veto.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Labour campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU, but Corbyn says he will respect voters' decision to leave. He said Labour would fight the election promising a fairer society and economy, and "a Brexit that works for all."
How does this make sense? If you were anti-Brexit before, and presumably you think that it will have a variety of negative consequences for Britain, and there's going to be another election, why not make the case that Brexit is bad and that Britain should reconsider before leaving the EU?
IIUC, Corbyn was privately pro-Brexit, but publicly was anti-Brexit for show (and did a lackluster job attacking brexit)
My general sense (while I don't follow British politics super closely) is that Corbyn is a hot mess in general, and this would be seem to be a piece of that.
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior »

The cynical possibility is that Corbyn feels or knows he is not strong enough to run with the promise of an un-Brexit. Labour needs to strengthen their position and they likely believe May must be counting on gaining seats. With her reputation for caginess I expect they will be 'conservative' in their electioneering. Especially with such a short time line. At a macro level this is a view into how Conservative party internal politics are driving them towards an unknown future at an increasing pace while keeping Labour on their heels.

On a personal note I look forward to a discussion about this Saturday. One of my friends is from the UK but works for IBM up in Armonk and we'll be at an event together. I can't wait to hear his take on this.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant »

Here we go:
“Jeremy saw the conflict between socialism and the EU, voting for Leave in 1975, and he spent 32 years proudly voting against the EU in Parliament, which only stopped on his ascension to leader.
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote:Here we go:
“Jeremy saw the conflict between socialism and the EU, voting for Leave in 1975, and he spent 32 years proudly voting against the EU in Parliament, which only stopped on his ascension to leader.
That's so crazy. How did Corbyn get elected leader of Labour? Labour membership has to be wildly pro-remain, right? And this is one of the premier issues of Britain today?

What a mess.
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo »

Isgrimnur wrote:NBC News
The time limit creates a big problem for a country such as Britain wishing to negotiate advantageous exit terms, since once notice has been given the process can only be halted or extended by unanimous agreement, giving any member state a veto.
I wonder who would veto, though. I guess if Le Pen gets elected she presumably would, but otherwise, not clear why any EU member would do that.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur »

Ask the Poles what happens when you allow one person to veto something.
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo »

Isgrimnur wrote:Ask the Poles what happens when you allow one person to veto something.
I will say that, while I think that in general the EU is a good thing for America and for Europe, it is also pretty screwed up in a lot of ways. Having one-state vetoes on EU-wide matters is insane, and leads to things like one region in Belgium almost scuttling a trade deal that everyone else favored. (Though in that case apparently they finally managed to get Belgian sign off).

Also, re: vetoing Britain remaining, I did forget that Poland and Hungary are both governed by crazy people at the moment.
Last edited by El Guapo on Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Black Lives Matter.
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