Brexit
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- GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit
Yeah, haven't been following news coming out of France for the most part.
- Blackhawk
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Re: Brexit
Well, I guess they'll still have Wales. That is just enough to let them keep the 'United Kingdom' moniker.
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Brexit
It's a rather lofty name for not even controlling your whole island.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- El Guapo
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Re: Brexit
As I understand it Marine Le Pen (of the far right National Front) is currently leading in the presidential polls, and she has called for a Brexit-style referendum for France (she supports leaving the EU). IIRC the polls for such a referendum currently slightly favor leaving (though a lot could change).GreenGoo wrote:Yeah, haven't been following news coming out of France for the most part.
However, while Le Pen is almost certain to make it to the runoff round of two candidates, it's not clear whether she would be favored in that runoff round. BUT it's enough that a Frexit seems very plausible at least.
Black Lives Matter.
- Kurth
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Re: Brexit
Attended a 3rd of July party with some English and Scottish friends this past weekend. They were all solidly in the Remain camp, but not one of them thought (1) Scotland would leave the UK; or (2) the UK would actually leave the EU.
According to them, the EU has broadcast loud and clear that it will not accept Scotland on its own because it would send a message encouraging secession, and that's a message a number of EU states are vehemently opposed to (including France and Spain). They also felt that the UK wouldn't actually leave. They feel bullish on the idea that, despite pressure from the EU to hurry things up, the UK will take its time and do nothing until a new government is elected. They feel like Theresa May will run on a platform centered on ignoring the referendum and refusing to trigger Article 50, and they believe she'll be elected in a landslide.
Much of this was news to me and actually seemed a bit far-fetched, but that was their take on matters, and I thought it was pretty interesting.
According to them, the EU has broadcast loud and clear that it will not accept Scotland on its own because it would send a message encouraging secession, and that's a message a number of EU states are vehemently opposed to (including France and Spain). They also felt that the UK wouldn't actually leave. They feel bullish on the idea that, despite pressure from the EU to hurry things up, the UK will take its time and do nothing until a new government is elected. They feel like Theresa May will run on a platform centered on ignoring the referendum and refusing to trigger Article 50, and they believe she'll be elected in a landslide.
Much of this was news to me and actually seemed a bit far-fetched, but that was their take on matters, and I thought it was pretty interesting.
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- GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit
The EU has certainly taken a "we dare you" to leave stance, and are determined not to make it easy for the UK to leave. This might seem like an obvious position for them to take, but an unreasonable number of Britons seem like they are surprised that the EU is not playing nice with them. Like the Leave people thought the hard part was winning the referendum and now it should be all easy sailing. The euphoria of winning is coming into contact with the realities of actually going through with it, and they don't like it.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Brexit
My favorite part is where they think that the terms of departure should be set before they actually pull the trigger on Article 50.
That's not perfectly airtight, but it's pretty clear that the negotiations would occur after notification of the intent.2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit
Yep, like they think if they can't negotiate terms favourable to the UK, they can just not follow through on leaving. Like they are just bringing up the topic to feel out what the possible ramifications will be, and if they don't like what they hear, they can just say "well, I was just asking questions" and let it drop. They also don't seem to understand why the EU has all the power at the negotiating table. Like, "we won, so now everyone should do as we say" sort of attitude.Isgrimnur wrote:My favorite part is where they think that the terms of departure should be set before they actually pull the trigger on Article 50.
That's not perfectly airtight, but it's pretty clear that the negotiations would occur after notification of the intent.2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
The EU is like pull the trigger, then we can talk. I dare you.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Brexit
That was what the EU was saying during the Scottish independence vote. If the UK leaves, that argument is moot.Kurth wrote:
According to them, the EU has broadcast loud and clear that it will not accept Scotland on its own because it would send a message encouraging secession, and that's a message a number of EU states are vehemently opposed to (including France and Spain).
That I can see.They also felt that the UK wouldn't actually leave.
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- Defiant
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Re: Brexit
The reason Scotland would leave in the near term would, presumably, be to try to stay within the EU (or get back in). If the EU won't accept that, that gives less motivation for Scotland to leave the UK.LawBeefaroni wrote:That was what the EU was saying during the Scottish independence vote. If the UK leaves, that argument is moot.Kurth wrote:
According to them, the EU has broadcast loud and clear that it will not accept Scotland on its own because it would send a message encouraging secession, and that's a message a number of EU states are vehemently opposed to (including France and Spain).
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Brexit
Right, but I think the EU will have a different attitude if the UK brexits. EU is rightfully concerned about secession out of the EU. I don't think they're too worried about secession into the EU.Defiant wrote:The reason Scotland would leave in the near term would, presumably, be to try to stay within the EU (or get back in). If the EU won't accept that, that gives less motivation for Scotland to leave the UK.LawBeefaroni wrote:That was what the EU was saying during the Scottish independence vote. If the UK leaves, that argument is moot.Kurth wrote:
According to them, the EU has broadcast loud and clear that it will not accept Scotland on its own because it would send a message encouraging secession, and that's a message a number of EU states are vehemently opposed to (including France and Spain).
As an added bonus, the EU can be petty. It would be a nice FU to London if they let an independent Scotland in. It would take a few years at least, of course, but I do think they would be more receptive after a Brexit.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
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Re: Brexit
That was the rumor that accompanied the last Independence referendum. France and Spain allegedly discouraged allowing SNP to start pre-negotiationing an entry into the EU when Nicola Sturgeon went to Brussels last week. That said it's unclear what'll happen but you can be sure that SNP has got their ear to the ground trying to figure out if pushing for another referendum on the back of Brexit would succeed. They won't do it unless they are certain to win it.Kurth wrote:According to them, the EU has broadcast loud and clear that it will not accept Scotland on its own because it would send a message encouraging secession, and that's a message a number of EU states are vehemently opposed to (including France and Spain).
This almost sounds like classic denial behavior. Even if they drag their feet - the damage is done. You have to figure big business is not going to tolerate the uncertainty for too long. The banks in particular have to make big decisions about their operations that won't wait for the UK to stop shitting on the pot.They also felt that the UK wouldn't actually leave. They feel bullish on the idea that, despite pressure from the EU to hurry things up, the UK will take its time and do nothing until a new government is elected. They feel like Theresa May will run on a platform centered on ignoring the referendum and refusing to trigger Article 50, and they believe she'll be elected in a landslide.
Agreed. I've heard the same from English folks I know and they seem to be grasping at any straw.Much of this was news to me and actually seemed a bit far-fetched, but that was their take on matters, and I thought it was pretty interesting.
- GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit
2 more funds follow suit. 10 billion pounds frozen.GreenGoo wrote:
and a prominent 2.9 bil pound real estate fund has been frozen to prevent wholesale sell off.
- Kraken
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- Defiant
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Re: Brexit
It was thought that the UK had a very big real estate bubble - and now Brexit potentially pops it. To top it - the whole mess puts a ton of pressure on Italian banks in particular which have been teetering for a while. Yikes. At the moment it just looks like a run on the funds and is just panic so...not super scary...yet.GreenGoo wrote:2 more funds follow suit. 10 billion pounds frozen.GreenGoo wrote:
and a prominent 2.9 bil pound real estate fund has been frozen to prevent wholesale sell off.
- Alefroth
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- Max Peck
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Re: Brexit
Conservative Party starts choosing leader as pound sinks
The race to succeed Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron intensified Tuesday as Britain grappled with growing signs of economic strain resulting from the country's vote to leave the European Union. With the British currency plunging to its lowest point in three decades, Home Secretary Theresa May scored a substantial victory in the first round of voting to determine who will follow Cameron as party leader and prime minister. She garnered just over half the votes cast, with 165 Conservative Party members of Parliament backing her. Her strong showing does not guarantee she will eventually reside at 10 Downing Street, however, as lawmakers will narrow the field to two candidates and then put the matter to a vote before the entire party membership.
The conversation mentioned...Top EU officials, wondering with whom they will eventually negotiate, had sharp comments Tuesday about the U.K. leaders who pushed so hard to get Britain out of the EU - and then stepped aside rather than take part in the delicate talks. They include former London Mayor Boris Johnson, who declined a Conservative leadership bid after losing key support, and Nigel Farage, who resigned as leader of the U.K. Independence Party after helping lead Britain to a Brexit, as the exit plan is known. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told EU lawmakers that Johnson and Farage "are not patriots." "Patriots don't resign when things get difficult," he said. "They stay." Guy Verhofstadt, the Liberal bloc leader in the EU Parliament, likened the departed leaders to "rats fleeing a sinking ship."
The grim economic news in Britain was briefly offset by a rare glimpse of two Conservative Party grandees talking bluntly about their younger colleagues, apparently unaware they were being filmed by TV cameras. Former Treasury chief Kenneth Clarke, speaking candidly to former Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind, described May - leader in the first voting round - as a "bloody difficult woman." He said she knows little about foreign affairs. Rifkind, for his part, said he didn't care who gets into the final round as long as it isn't Gove, who threw the race into chaos last week by withdrawing support for Johnson and running himself. Clarke joked that if Gove became prime minister he would probably get Britain involved in at least three wars at once. Gove finished a disappointing third in the voting, but said he would remain in the race.
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- El Guapo
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- hepcat
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Re: Brexit
This is still cracking me up...Rip wrote:That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.
Covfefe!
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Re: Brexit
If you account for the currency decline of ~13% at the moment - the FTSE is down about 15% from peak pre-Brexit.
- Max Peck
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Re: Brexit
The knee-jerk panic reaction did correct itself, but the long-term reality is starting to sink in.hepcat wrote:This is still cracking me up...Rip wrote:That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.
Fear of instability in the European Union and of decades of global stagnation sent stock markets sharply lower on Wednesday as Britain's pound sank below $1.30 for the first time in more than three decades. After a steadier few days as investors digested the shock of Britain's decision to leave the European Union, the implications of another round of financial losses, interest rate cuts and central bank money-printing to prop up growth have begun to set in.
Japanese and Korean markets led Asia lower, falling by 1.8 percent. Indexes in Frankfurt, London and Paris all sank by around 2 percent and the European banking index - a major focus of concern this year - by as much as 2.7 percent. Wall Street was set to open at least half a percent lower. Sovereign bond yields were lower across the board. Government debt in Germany now returns less than nothing for the next 15 years, essentially suggesting that there will be no inflation or economic growth in that period. In Switzerland, yields are at zero for the next half century.
"We've seen strong selling interest across the board this week," said Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets in London. "While some have speculated that some 'Leave' voters may have undergone some form of buyer’s remorse, it would seem that the same could also be said of the investors who took part in last week's stock market rebound."
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor
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- gilraen
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Re: Brexit
The pound dropped again today, finished at what, something like $1.26 - that's insanely low, and it's not done falling yet. Some stocks may be up but some are just starting to feel the pain - Brits are a huge market for both luxury and mass-market cruises, for example; major cruise line stocks have been down since Brexit. Airlines have some additional issues right now but overall airline stock is down.malchior wrote:If you account for the currency decline of ~13% at the moment - the FTSE is down about 15% from peak pre-Brexit.
- Alefroth
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Re: Brexit
It's not affecting him. Life is good.hepcat wrote:This is still cracking me up...Rip wrote:That said the stock losses have gone and all is well.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Brexit
CNN
Britain's new prime minister will be either Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom, after Michael Gove was eliminated in the second round of MP voting for the leadership of the Conservative Party, Graham Brady, chair of the Conservative Private Members' Committee, announced Thursday.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- gilraen
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Re: Brexit
Growing Unease as British Mutual Funds Block the Exit Doors
This week, six asset management firms in Britain decided to refuse, for the moment, cash demands from those seeking to escape funds that invest in commercial real estate in the country.
- em2nought
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- Kraken
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Re: Brexit
em2nought wrote:bahahahaKraken wrote:I asked Kat for his opinion
- em2nought
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Re: Brexit
I'm laughing at the picture and caption of Mr. Kat's opinion to just sit there and stare at the open door after asking to leave.Kraken wrote:em2nought wrote:bahahahaKraken wrote:I asked Kat for his opinion
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
- Max Peck
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Re: Brexit
So, UK, would you prefer that your new leader be a mum or not?
Rachel Sylvester: "Do you feel like a mum in politics?"
Andrea Leadsom: "Yes. So...
RS: "Why and how?"
AL: "So really carefully because I am sure, I don't really know Theresa very well but I am sure she will be really really sad she doesn't have children so I don't want this to be 'Andrea has children, Theresa hasn't' because I think that would be really horrible. But genuinely I feel being a mum means you have a very real stake in the future of our country, a tangible stake. She possibly has nieces, nephews, lots of people, but I have children, who are going to have children, who will directly be a part of what happens next. So it really keeps you focused on 'what are you really saying?'. Because what it means is you don't want a downturn but 'never mind, let's look ahead to the ten years', hence it will all be fine. My children will be starting their lives in that next ten years so I have a real stake in the next year, the next two."
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- Kurth
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Re: Brexit
The best part about this is: "So it really keeps you focused on 'what are you really saying?'"Max Peck wrote:So, UK, would you prefer that your new leader be a mum or not?Rachel Sylvester: "Do you feel like a mum in politics?"
Andrea Leadsom: "Yes. So...
RS: "Why and how?"
AL: "So really carefully because I am sure, I don't really know Theresa very well but I am sure she will be really really sad she doesn't have children so I don't want this to be 'Andrea has children, Theresa hasn't' because I think that would be really horrible. But genuinely I feel being a mum means you have a very real stake in the future of our country, a tangible stake. She possibly has nieces, nephews, lots of people, but I have children, who are going to have children, who will directly be a part of what happens next. So it really keeps you focused on 'what are you really saying?'. Because what it means is you don't want a downturn but 'never mind, let's look ahead to the ten years', hence it will all be fine. My children will be starting their lives in that next ten years so I have a real stake in the next year, the next two."
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- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Brexit
"Having kids means you think long term....I have kids and I want short-term results for them."Max Peck wrote:So, UK, would you prefer that your new leader be a mum or not?Rachel Sylvester: "Do you feel like a mum in politics?"
Andrea Leadsom: "Yes. So...
RS: "Why and how?"
AL: "So really carefully because I am sure, I don't really know Theresa very well but I am sure she will be really really sad she doesn't have children so I don't want this to be 'Andrea has children, Theresa hasn't' because I think that would be really horrible. But genuinely I feel being a mum means you have a very real stake in the future of our country, a tangible stake. She possibly has nieces, nephews, lots of people, but I have children, who are going to have children, who will directly be a part of what happens next. So it really keeps you focused on 'what are you really saying?'. Because what it means is you don't want a downturn but 'never mind, let's look ahead to the ten years', hence it will all be fine. My children will be starting their lives in that next ten years so I have a real stake in the next year, the next two."
I hate to call people out on what they say stuff off the cuff, we all say dumb shit sometimes, but that makes no sense. Doesn't look like they're going to get a smooth Brexitexit.
But hey, they're our cultural cousins. 2016: 2 nations, 4 candidates. All fucked.
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- GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit
This is not the place for it but I'm just dropping it here as I drive by.
Blair is getting raked over the coals with a recently released report on the Iraqi war. It's not good, and in my opinion reflects on Bush and America as well.
Blair is getting raked over the coals with a recently released report on the Iraqi war. It's not good, and in my opinion reflects on Bush and America as well.
- gilraen
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Re: Brexit
She is giving women politicians everywhere a bad name. No one would ever question a man whether his children (or lack thereof) are somehow affecting his ability to serve in his role.LawBeefaroni wrote: "Having kids means you think long term....I have kids and I want short-term results for them."
I hate to call people out on what they say stuff off the cuff, we all say dumb shit sometimes, but that makes no sense. Doesn't look like they're going to get a smooth Brexitexit.
- Unagi
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Re: Brexit
I assumed she meant that as a parent, you have 'that much more invested' in the distant future - that while all politicians really really care, a parent really really really cares.
Nothing 'female' vs. 'male'. It was 'with' or 'without' offspring.
Nothing 'female' vs. 'male'. It was 'with' or 'without' offspring.
- Unagi
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Re: Brexit
I misread you, but still disagree. She would have, I think, said the same thing about anyone (male or female) she was asked to compare - "as a mum" vs. another candidate that didn't have kids. maybe I am wrong.
- gilraen
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Re: Brexit
There's a point to be made that a male politician probably wouldn't even be asked such question, let alone elaborate on it.Unagi wrote:I misread you, but still disagree. She would have, I think, said the same thing about anyone (male or female) she was asked to compare - "as a mum" vs. another candidate that didn't have kids. maybe I am wrong.
- Rip
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Re: Brexit
Do we know? How many candidates have they had that didn't have children.
IIRC the US has only had 5 Presidents who didn't have children and they were all long ago.
IIRC the US has only had 5 Presidents who didn't have children and they were all long ago.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Brexit
Leadsom is out.
Cameron will step down by Wednesday.Theresa May is set to become the UK's next prime minister after Andrea Leadsom pulled out of the contest to become Conservative Party leader.
...
Mrs May, 59, who backed staying in the EU, has been home secretary since 2010.
Mrs Leadsom, who campaigned to leave the EU, said the UK needed "strong and stable government" and that Mrs May was "ideally placed" to implement Brexit.
...
In a speech earlier on Monday setting out her leadership campaign platform, Mrs May - who rejected the argument that the next leader and prime minister had to have been someone on the winning side of the EU referendum - said: "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it."
In her brief statement in Westminster, Mrs Leadsom - who was a leading light of the Brexit campaign - said a nine-week leadership campaign at such a "critical time" for the UK would be "highly undesirable".
A source close to the energy minister told BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg "the abuse has been too great" for Mrs Leadsom during the contest.
Mrs Leadsom had apologised to Mrs May on Monday after suggesting in a weekend newspaper interview that being a mother made her a better candidate for the job.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- tjg_marantz
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Re: Brexit
Maybe she had to go be a better person and take care of some children or something.
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