Brexit

[Defiant]

I can top that:

UK votes to leave the UK

[malchior]

[Carpet_pissr]

"Once Article 50 is triggered, the terms of Brexit will be negotiated not by British politicians or diplomats, but by the other 27 nations of the EU. And, when the members are ready, they will present the British government with a departure agreement on a "take it or leave it" basis."

Wow, that seems really strange. So if the pro-union EU 27 members give insanely onerous departure terms to Britain (which according to the above, are not up for negotiation), they could be "forced" to stay after all? Seems like a no-brainer approach if you are for union at all costs.

Also, if Britain does leave, who will now negotiate trade treaties for them? There is literally ONE person responsible for that for he whole EU, and they have been doing it on behalf of all member states for decades. All that knowledge and experience and "weight" if you will, will be gone when it comes to negotiations at the table. And that's a very high stakes game, which has real world and usually lasting economic results. I think Britain will be at a severe disadvantage.

[Chrisoc13]

I'm sure most of what Obama said was bluster. A new trade agreement will be worked out with the UK. We have years to do it anyways.

The United States isn't exactly in a "free trade" sort of mood, and after all the EU-oriented businesses in the UK move to Paris and Berlin, there won't be nearly as much reason to negotiate a great deal with whatever is left of the UK in 2018. The more immediate issue for the imbeciles who voted "Leave" will be convincing Northern Ireland, whose peace agreement relies on the free flow of people, capital, and goods into Ireland that Brexit just threw into disarray, and Scotland not to leave the UK.

Why should Scotland and Northern Ireland be dragged out of the EU by the votes of angry, old Englishmen?

I didn't say good deal. I have no idea what kind of a trade agreement we will end up with but we have years to make an agreement and I fully believe we will make one with our closest ally. Obama bluffed and it's going to show. It's ok, I approve of what he did, it was a good attempt to sway people to the remain side, but I still recognized it as a bluff.

You seem to have taken the most dire view possible of what occurred. "What's left of the UK?" Please. Talk about an over reaction. The UK will remain a world power. The EU is not what made them a world power. Sure Scotland may leave, but let's see how this settles down before calling this the death of one of the more powerful states in the world.

Also northern Ireland wasn't as straight forward as Scotland. Several areas voted leave. They aren't united like Scotland. This is just the beginning, it will be interesting to see what comes of it. People are acting like the UK is becoming Russia. While the vote is a big deal, Switzerland is not in the EU and travel across borders is incredibly easy. Northern Ireland could go the route of individually making agreements with Ireland to make things similar to how they are. The UK will remain an integral part of Europe. They will still be in the middle of any serious discussions. That's one of the reasons I find the leave movement pointless. In my opinion I would guess they are going to end up making all these individual agreements to keep things how they are. It'll end up being an expensive waste.

[Isgrimnur]

Article 50

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

[Defiant]

The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

[malchior]

The trade agreements issue was brought up. Apparently thy need to renegotiate with dozens of nations now on top of the EU. And access to the single market (if they get it) will be still subject to the same rules and regulations. They already had control of immigration and their borders. It isn't even relly clear what benefit thry are going to get. It is really bizarre.

[Chrisoc13]

The trade agreements issue was brought up. Apparently thy need to renegotiate with dozens of nations now on top of the EU. And access to the single market (if they get it) will be still subject to the same rules and regulations. They already had control of immigration and their borders. It isn't even relly clear what benefit thry are going to get. It is really bizarre.

That's why I don't get it. They are going to end up with all of these individual trade agreements (despite the doom and gloom thrown around ) and they won't get much from it. They'll end up having all the same requirements. It's just a waste.

[Carpet_pissr]

They will be lucky to get the same requirements! Without the economic bargaining power of the EU behind them, if we are referring to agreements with non-EU nations, they are likely to have a rude awakening. And hell, even the EU talks may not go the way they hope. You think the experienced negotiators in Brussels will go easy on the secessionists who just thumbed their nose at them? (I really don't know - it depends a lot on how much the EU needs Britain vs the reverse, but certainly politics and butt hurt will come into play as well).

[Chrisoc13]

They will be lucky to get the same requirements! Without the economic bargaining power of the EU behind them, if we are referring to agreements with non-EU nations, they are likely to have a rude awakening. And hell, even the EU talks may not go the way they hope. You think the experienced negotiators in Brussels will go easy on the secessionists who just thumbed their nose at them? (I really don't know - it depends a lot on how much the EU needs Britain vs the reverse, but certainly politics and butt hurt will come into play as well).

Sorry should have said the same or worse. I agree it's stupid. But it isn't the death of the UK.

[Canuck]

The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

"Even though I voted to leave, this morning I woke up and I just — the reality did actually hit me," one woman told the news channel ITV News. "If I'd had the opportunity to vote again, it would be to stay."

I think in British they say, " you fucking wanker".

[Pyperkub]

They will be lucky to get the same requirements! Without the economic bargaining power of the EU behind them, if we are referring to agreements with non-EU nations, they are likely to have a rude awakening. And hell, even the EU talks may not go the way they hope. You think the experienced negotiators in Brussels will go easy on the secessionists who just thumbed their nose at them? (I really don't know - it depends a lot on how much the EU needs Britain vs the reverse, but certainly politics and butt hurt will come into play as well).

Sorry should have said the same or worse. I agree it's stupid. But it isn't the death of the UK.

Well, it sounds like both Scottish independence and possibly Ireland as well is back on the table, so yeah, it may have killed the UK as we know it.

[Canuck]

They will be lucky to get the same requirements! Without the economic bargaining power of the EU behind them, if we are referring to agreements with non-EU nations, they are likely to have a rude awakening. And hell, even the EU talks may not go the way they hope. You think the experienced negotiators in Brussels will go easy on the secessionists who just thumbed their nose at them? (I really don't know - it depends a lot on how much the EU needs Britain vs the reverse, but certainly politics and butt hurt will come into play as well).

Sorry should have said the same or worse. I agree it's stupid. But it isn't the death of the UK.

If Scotland and Ireland end up leaving (not a certainty but definitely a possibility) then that's exactly what it will be. Unless of course you count England and Wales as the new UK.

[Fireball]

The trade agreements issue was brought up. Apparently thy need to renegotiate with dozens of nations now on top of the EU. And access to the single market (if they get it) will be still subject to the same rules and regulations. They already had control of immigration and their borders. It isn't even relly clear what benefit thry are going to get. It is really bizarre.

They literally got nothing out of this. At best, they have a more expensive version of the system they have now but without a voice in future EU policy. At worst, they lose the ability to trade effectively with almost all of their major trading partners, and their role in Europe is greatly diminished. Either way, they probably lose Scotland, and have all sorts of new troubles with Northern Ireland.

All this to temporarily soothe the anger of old English people who just can't stand that the world isn't exactly what it was several decades ago.

[Fireball]

They will be lucky to get the same requirements! Without the economic bargaining power of the EU behind them, if we are referring to agreements with non-EU nations, they are likely to have a rude awakening. And hell, even the EU talks may not go the way they hope. You think the experienced negotiators in Brussels will go easy on the secessionists who just thumbed their nose at them? (I really don't know - it depends a lot on how much the EU needs Britain vs the reverse, but certainly politics and butt hurt will come into play as well).

Sorry should have said the same or worse. I agree it's stupid. But it isn't the death of the UK.

Well, it sounds like both Scottish independence and possibly Ireland as well is back on the table, so yeah, it may have killed the UK as we know it.

Exactly. I expect that Scotland will leave, and the consensus government in Northern Ireland is going to struggle to hold things together, and might end up leaving, too.

No Scotland = no United Kingdom.

[Rip]

After Trump wins we can vote them in as the 51st state.

[malchior]

They will be lucky to get the same requirements! Without the economic bargaining power of the EU behind them, if we are referring to agreements with non-EU nations, they are likely to have a rude awakening. And hell, even the EU talks may not go the way they hope. You think the experienced negotiators in Brussels will go easy on the secessionists who just thumbed their nose at them? (I really don't know - it depends a lot on how much the EU needs Britain vs the reverse, but certainly politics and butt hurt will come into play as well).

Sorry should have said the same or worse. I agree it's stupid. But it isn't the death of the UK.

Well, it sounds like both Scottish independence and possibly Ireland as well is back on the table, so yeah, it may have killed the UK as we know it.

Exactly. I expect that Scotland will leave, and the consensus government in Northern Ireland is going to struggle to hold things together, and might end up leaving, too.

No Scotland = no United Kingdom.

Not to mention the huge resulting rightward lurch without Scottish liberals.

[hepcat]

After Hillary wins, we can set up an email server there for her.

[Sepiche]

All this to temporarily soothe the anger of old English people who just can't stand that the world isn't exactly what it was several decades ago.

I think that's one underappreciated element of the Brexit... this was a vote along generational lines, and older voters basically just forced the UK out of the EU over the objections of younger voters who are going to actually live with the fallout of the decision.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2 ... enerations

But Brexit is a permanent thing. If a bunch of nostalgic/resentful/racist oldsters vote Britain out of the EU, they'll be forcing their bitterness on a generation that doesn't want it. The truth is that Brexit will barely affect older voters either way: they mostly don't work and they mostly have only local friendships. But it will certainly affect all of the younger generations, who have decades left to live in whatever Britain is bequeathed to them. They want to grow up in a continent where they can work wherever they want and associate with whomever they please. It would be a travesty for a sour group of elderly misanthropes to deny them that.

[malchior]

The "downside" to increased lifespan...old, angry, and scared people who vote in large numbers. Could be a path to hell.

[AWS260]

Guess he forgot about the MP murdered last week.

[GreenGoo]

I don't get how predictions were so wrong when it has been stated as too close to call.

I think it's because no one actually believed that the British people would vote to leave. There is no upside to leaving. Nothing tangible anyway. There was huge downsides for leaving. The markets are taking a dump just on the referendum alone. They haven't even left yet.

I think a lot of people are in a state of disbelief.

[Rip]

Guess he forgot about the MP murdered last week.

Are you suggesting that helped the Brexit vote?

Because my impression is it hurt Brexit, just not enough to fall it.

[Moliere]

After Johnson wins we can all shoot up heroin and fire our guns in celebration.

[GreenGoo]

Are you suggesting that helped the Brexit vote?

Because my impression is it hurt Brexit, just not enough to fall it.

Farage is suggesting the Brexit campaign was bloodless and free of violence. It wasn't.

[AWS260]

Are you suggesting that helped the Brexit vote?

Because my impression is it hurt Brexit, just not enough to fall it.

I agree with you about the shooting's impact on the vote. But the shooter was clearly influenced by Farage's nativist rhetoric, which has permeated the Brexit campaign.

[Blackhawk]

I find myself oddly in the mood to listen to the Sex Pistols this afternoon.

[Sepiche]

I find myself oddly in the mood to listen to the Sex Pistols this afternoon.

The Clash here. I'm pretty sure Joe Strummer is spinning in his grave right about now.

[gbasden]

I think you might mean Northern Ireland. Don't mean to nitpick, but it's an important distinction.

No, actually, it could just mean Ireland reunited.

This morning, Northern Ireland’s Deputy First Minister Martin McGuiness, a member of the republican Sinn Fein party, called for a vote on pulling Northern Ireland out of the United Kingdom and uniting it with the Republic.

[Isgrimnur]

Wow...

[Max Peck]

The special relationship won't just end because of Obama and Cameron, especially since both are leaving office very soon.

"Brexit" threatens to undermine U.S.-Britain special relationship

Britain’s decision to leave the European Union could send damaging shockwaves through the bedrock Anglo-American “special relationship,” raising questions about London’s willingness and ability to back U.S.-led efforts in global crises ranging from the Middle East to Ukraine. The loss of the strongest pro-U.S. voice within the 28-nation bloc, as a result of the “Brexit” referendum, threatens to weaken Washington’s influence in European policymaking and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to further challenge the West, analysts and former diplomats say.

The British referendum on Thursday, widely seen as reflecting a more nationalistic and inward-looking public, also risks the splintering of the United Kingdom itself, which could further reduce its role and stature in world affairs. Britain's exit -- which is not immediate and must be negotiated with the EU -- could present the next U.S. president with a decision on whether to turn to other key European partners like Germany and France, essentially downgrading America's special bond with London whose foundation was laid in World War Two.

Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, said Britain’s ability to press its views and policy preferences with its European allies and within NATO, where it provided strong political backing to the United States, will be diminished. “You clearly have a much weaker Britain whose sway in European capitals is lessened by the vote,” Daalder said. As a result, he said, the United States likely will have to work harder to maintain trans-Atlantic and European unity.

[Defiant]

Bank of England Well Prepared For Brexit

Did people in the UK also lose their accent because of this referendum?

[hepcat]

I've always thought the accent was just an affectation anyway. When Americans aren't around, they all just sound Canadian.

[Alefroth]

I think you might mean Northern Ireland. Don't mean to nitpick, but it's an important distinction.

No, actually, it could just mean Ireland reunited.

This morning, Northern Ireland’s Deputy First Minister Martin McGuiness, a member of the republican Sinn Fein party, called for a vote on pulling Northern Ireland out of the United Kingdom and uniting it with the Republic.

It could. Until then, Ireland and Northern Ireland are distinct and not simply interchangeable.

[Pyperkub]

After Hillary wins, we can set up an email server there for her.

Trump will re-incorporate the US in Ireland to avoid paying Social Security taxes. The triple irish.

[cheeba]

when countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait aren't taking in any?

There are 500,000 Syrians in Saudi Arabia, according to Nabil Othman, acting regional representative to the Gulf region at the UNHCR.

link

About a quarter of Saudi's population are foreign workers.

(Of course, it's Jordan and Turkey thats got the most)

I think the distinction here is that while Saudi has some refugees, they are not offering resettlement to them - they won't be able to become citizens.

Here are some Amnesty International numbers.

Gulf countries including Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain have offered zero resettlement places to Syrian refugees.
Other high income countries including Russia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea have also offered zero resettlement places.
Germany has pledged 35,000 places for Syrian refugees through its humanitarian admission programme and individual sponsorship; about 75 % of the EU total.
Germany and Sweden together have received 47% Syrian asylum applications in the EU between April 2011 and July 2015
Excluding Germany and Sweden, the remaining 26 EU countries have pledged around 8,700 resettlement places, or around 0.2% of Syrian refugees in the main host countries.

[cheeba]

Maybe immigration is a valid concern to some of these people

That would make more sense if we didn't observe that the people most likely to actually deal with immigrants weren't a lot less concerned about immigration. It's always the people that don't really have any connection or interaction with immigrants that seem to be the most terrified.

That makes no sense. Who cares if they have any interaction with them? The people who voted Leave are people who are (potentially) the most impacted by cheap labor.

[Defiant]

I think the distinction here is that while Saudi has some refugees, they are not offering resettlement to them - they won't be able to become citizens.

Sure. But does anyone think that the people up in arms against immigration would be all that happy if the UK took in 500,000 Syrians that were there only on a temporary basis, without citizenship?

Yes, if the Syrian crisis lasts for a long time, resettlement will be a bigger issue, but right now I would think giving them temporary refuge out of the war zone in the hopes that the situation will be resolved and that they will be able to return is the bigger issue, IMO.

[Defiant]

Sir Humphrey's take

[RunningMn9]

The people who voted Leave are people who are (potentially) the most impacted by cheap labor.

That implies some rationality to their Leave vote, which appears to be a questionable prospect.