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Brexit

For discussion of religion and politics

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Moliere
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Re: Brexit

Post by Moliere » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:17 pm

Britain Welcomes New Prime Minister Theresa May. Here’s Why She’s Awful.
In her previous position, May has been a significant supporter of the expansion of internal surveillance authority by the British government, even in the face of outrage when the extent of snooping taking place was exposed by Edward Snowden. When U.K. authorities detained David Miranda, the partner of Snowden leak journalist Glenn Greenwald, at London's Heathrow Airport, May supported the action and told critics to "think about what they're condoning."
...
And like Feinstein, she's terrible on drugs, too. Arguably she's worse. She's a proponent of the Pyschoactive Substances Act, which creates an environment where any substance that can give people a high is by default banned unless it is specifically exempted. Jacob Sullum wrote about the terrible law here. Wired notes that the Act has been blasted by academics and scientists for being unclear and for possibly hampering research into the effects of drugs.
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GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Sep 06, 2016 3:17 pm

So for the past few months I've been reading UK economic articles. Sometimes just the headlines. If the UK is to be believed, the vote for BREXIT is both the best and worst thing that has ever happened to the UK.

Company A shows record profits. Last quarter had the lowest growth in 4 years. Etc etc.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Tue Sep 06, 2016 3:45 pm

GreenGoo wrote:So for the past few months I've been reading UK economic articles. Sometimes just the headlines. If the UK is to be believed, the vote for BREXIT is both the best and worst thing that has ever happened to the UK.

Company A shows record profits. Last quarter had the lowest growth in 4 years. Etc etc.
This is why economics reporting is so goddamn awful - how would record profits at any company mean anything alone? How would aggregate profits in a quarter alone show anything? A single quarter's growth down? There is so much junk information out there.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Sep 06, 2016 3:48 pm

Record profits - we didn't spend any money.
Lowest growth in four years - we didn't spend any money.
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:21 pm

Yeah, sorry, don't take my examples as anything other than hypotheticals of what I was talking about. I didn't take notes for 2 months and any specific day could lean one way or the other.

Just random pros (things are great! See? Brexiters were right!) and cons (things are awful! See? Brexit opponents were right!).

It gets even funnier when an article will announce it's "time for the Brexit doomsayers to move on" like the UK is doing great post Brexit, despite Brexit not actually having happened yet.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:26 pm

GreenGoo wrote:It gets even funnier when an article will announce it's "time for the Brexit doomsayers to move on" like the UK is doing great post Brexit, despite Brexit not actually having happened yet.
Stupid people gonna stupid.
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GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:27 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:It gets even funnier when an article will announce it's "time for the Brexit doomsayers to move on" like the UK is doing great post Brexit, despite Brexit not actually having happened yet.
Stupid people gonna stupid.
Oh, it's pure political spin from a pro-brexit organization, no doubt.

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Re: Brexit

Post by em2nought » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:26 am

GreenGoo wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:It gets even funnier when an article will announce it's "time for the Brexit doomsayers to move on" like the UK is doing great post Brexit, despite Brexit not actually having happened yet.
Stupid people gonna stupid.
Oh, it's pure political spin from a pro-brexit organization, no doubt.

Yep, because everyone knows the European Union is the one true religion. :mrgreen:
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GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:16 am

Er, we're talking about how ridiculous it is to claim that something that hasn't happened yet has had no ill effects.

What are you talking about?

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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:40 am

GreenGoo wrote:Er, we're talking about how ridiculous it is to claim that something that hasn't happened yet has had no ill effects.

What are you talking about?
Does it matter?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Jaymann » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:24 am

El Guapo wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:Er, we're talking about how ridiculous it is to claim that something that hasn't happened yet has had no ill effects.

What are you talking about?
Does it matter?
#imaginarylivesmatter
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Re: Brexit

Post by em2nought » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:15 am

GreenGoo wrote:Er, we're talking about how ridiculous it is to claim that something that hasn't happened yet has had no ill effects.

What are you talking about?
I'm talking about portraying people with views differing from the quasi-official liberal elite position as "Stupid people gonna stupid". As for what will happen, I guess we'll actually have to wait and see.
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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:18 am

I like that while complaining about others lumping everyone they don't agree with into one group, you group all those you're railing against into one group called "the liberal elite". :lol:
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Re: Brexit

Post by em2nought » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:23 am

hepcat wrote:I like that while complaining about others lumping everyone they don't agree with into one group, you group all those you're railing against into one group called "the liberal elite". :lol:
Yes, but the liberal elite never get called stupid, sly like a fox maybe. :wink:
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hepcat
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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:26 am

You've learned well from your mentor, L'il Rip.

Goalpost...moved.
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Re: Brexit

Post by LawBeefaroni » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:26 am

em2nought wrote:
hepcat wrote:I like that while complaining about others lumping everyone they don't agree with into one group, you group all those you're railing against into one group called "the liberal elite". :lol:
Yes, but the liberal elite never get called stupid, sly like a fox maybe. :wink:
The only ones being called stupid above were those who declared Brexit a non-issue based on evidence of the past few months. A period of time in which Brexit hasn't happened yet.
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Re: Brexit

Post by tjg_marantz » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:56 pm

Stop feeding it
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hepcat
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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:58 pm

Whoa...you whipped out the "it". When you start to dehumanize someone, it's time to take a breather. :wink:
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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:58 pm

hepcat wrote:You've learned well from your mentor, L'il Rip.

Goalpost...moved.
Image

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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:01 pm

Is he moving that thing with the power of his mind or something? :shock:
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:01 pm

em2nought wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:Er, we're talking about how ridiculous it is to claim that something that hasn't happened yet has had no ill effects.

What are you talking about?
I'm talking about portraying people with views differing from the quasi-official liberal elite position as "Stupid people gonna stupid". As for what will happen, I guess we'll actually have to wait and see.
Tell that to the stupid people being stupid. That's what the discussion is about.

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:03 pm

hepcat wrote:Is he moving that thing with the power of his mind or something? :shock:
:?: He's holding it with his hands, which is how one traditionally moves goalposts.

Unless you are Trump and presumably have the most amazing powers of telekinesis ever, believe me.

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hepcat
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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:06 pm

Ah, the perspective was off for me when I first looked at it (the front part that he's holding looked like it was the back part at first).

In my defense, I'm not one of the liberal elite. I'm one of the other guys.
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Defiant
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:09 pm

Yeah, the picture is almost like an optical illusion as to which direction the goal is facing. Took me a second to see the back of it was to his back.

To bring it back on topic - has there been any actual movement towards Brexit happening?

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:32 pm

Not really, no. It depends on who you talk to though.

Maybe some small movements. A couple of meetings. EU and UK representatives talking past each other, etc. The current PM (May I think her name is. I don't pay too much attention, plus the political landscape has been moving quickly over there) is on record as "no new vote, Brexit is happening" though.
Last edited by GreenGoo on Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit

Post by LawBeefaroni » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:35 pm

Defiant wrote:Yeah, the picture is almost like an optical illusion as to which direction the goal is facing. Took me a second to see the back of it was to his back.
Image

Defiant wrote: To bring it back on topic - has there been any actual movement towards Brexit happening?
They're waiting on invoking Article 50 until they have a plan, and preferably a free trade agreement, in place. So right now it's "we won't make the major change until we have something in place that means it won't be a major change."

The whole "Fuck EU" thing has become more like, "let's agree to disagree once we can come to an agreement on what disagreeing will look like."
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:50 pm

The EU's original stance was "no talking until article 50 is invoked", which would have really dropped the UK into the abyss of the unknown (which they pretty much deserve, imo). But it looks like that's not going to happen.

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Re: Brexit

Post by em2nought » Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:01 pm

El Guapo wrote:
hepcat wrote:Is he moving that thing with the power of his mind or something? :shock:
Unless you are Trump and presumably have the most amazing powers of telekinesis ever, believe me.
Trump would move that goalpost with a variation of the flagpole in his front yard story, he'd just start to dig until that goalpost is sitting at the top of a hill. Once he removed the last shovel of dirt it would roll down the hill by itself. :wink:
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:36 am

GreenGoo wrote:The EU's original stance was "no talking until article 50 is invoked", which would have really dropped the UK into the abyss of the unknown (which they pretty much deserve, imo). But it looks like that's not going to happen.
I wonder if the EU is basically planning on using bureaucratic inertia to try to basically kill Brexit. Basically leave it to May to have to really initiate the separation, at which point she would own Brexit and all of the uncertain (and probably bad, in the short term at the very least) consequences that would follow. She's probably going to be reluctant to do that absent a great exit deal with the EU. So the EU holds the line on a tough deal and just keeps talking and talking and hopes that UK public opinion turns solidly against Brexit in the meantime.

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:58 am

El Guapo wrote:I wonder if the EU is basically planning on using bureaucratic inertia to try to basically kill Brexit. Basically
Basically, yeah. :D

The EU was "you made this bed, you lie in it" at first. No support, no talks, no agreements, nothing until you pull the trigger on Article 50. Which is how it's supposed to work anyway, so it's not like it was particularly vindictive. Also, this is the first time Article 50 will be invoked, and since no one has left the EU yet, no one really has any idea how to do it.

The EU is suffering as much from the unknown/uncertainty as the UK, so it kind of sucks for everyone. I don't blame the EU for being pissed. This hurts them and it's happening for pretty selfish UK reasons. Not that the UK doesn't have the right to leave, but they knew what they were getting into when they agreed to it in the first place, and there isn't a strong incentive to leave. Not one that isn't based on emotion anyway.

Imagine if the US had a vote every time the fed wanted to increase/decrease interest rates. Or make a trade agreement. Or extend unemployment insurance an extra 3 months. Or bail out the banks. Or issue new bonds. Or...increase the debt cap. Carnage.

These sorts of decisions shouldn't be left to the layman on the street because he doesn't have a clue what he's voting for or what the ramifications are. He just knows he has too many Polish neighbours and poles suck.

The whole thing is incredibly stupid. Will the UK survive if they Brexit? Of course. Will it hurt? Yes. For awhile at least until they get their economic relationship with the rest of Europe in some kind of order.

Now Corbyn is saying he doesn't even want to be part of the EU single market. I don't even know what he's thinking on that.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:03 am

I thought one of the European officials was saying after the election something along the lines of Bexit would happen so to quit the pipe dream of stopping it?

Edit: I guess I was thinking of Angela Merkel

And, of course, Europe has an incentive of not cutting deals to keep Britain in cause then they'll have to cut deals with other countries who attempt *-xit.
GreenGoo wrote: Now Corbyn is saying he doesn't even want to be part of the EU single market. I don't even know what he's thinking on that.
He's way out there on a lot of stuff, so I'm not surprised.

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:55 pm

Articles today include headline "Brexit found NOT to have negative impact on UK economy" for article about an economic report that states UK economy to continue to decline and then stabilize at the new, lower level (note that Brexit still won't have happened by this time). Another claims the campaign for a second vote is an "affront to democracy".

EU Council president Tusk tells May "the ball's in your court" and advises she get moving on Brexiting as the delay and uncertainty are no good for anyone.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:07 pm

David Cameron resigns from Parliament:
From world leader to the wilderness in just under three months.

David Cameron, the former British Prime Minister, has announced he will stand down as a member of Parliament for his constituency of Witney immediately, triggering a by-election.

Cameron, who has served in Parliament since 2001, stepped down as Prime Minister in the aftermath of June's Brexit vote in which the UK decided to leave the European Union.

He had previously said that he was "keen to continue" in his role as a backbench MP after stepping away from Downing Street but has since decided such a role is untenable.

"In my view, the circumstances of my resignation as Prime Minister and the realities of modern politics make it very difficult to continue on the backbenches without the risk of becoming a diversion to the important decisions that lie ahead for my successor in Downing Street and the Government," he said in a statement Monday.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:22 am

Time to speculate in Forex! :)
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:33 am

Is it possible to short the British economy?

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:42 am

FWIW - the weak pound helps cushion the damage somewhat. But mostly hurts those who voted for it (more expensive imports).

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Re: Brexit

Post by RunningMn9 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:57 am

I went to Scotland in the summer of 2015 with six friends. The tanking of the GBP easily would have saved us over $10,000 on the trip (combined).
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:46 am

As usual, the articles coming out of the UK are doom and gloom or bright and shiny.

For example, exports are thriving! :D

Let's take a look at what google sent me today:

Pound at 30 year low (as pointed out above).
French President warns about heavy price UK will pay if it leaves the EU.
UK Scientists warn science will suffer if Brexit goes through.
Juncker (president of the European Commission) calls for "intransigence" with Britain over Brexit negotiations.
Trade deficit widening (counter to the exports thriving mentioned above).

There is a distinct lack of pro-Brexit articles today, but that's just random chance. Next week we'll hear about how business is booming (in specific sectors) or how a single individual business had record profits etc.

Just like anywhere, if you pick your media carefully, things will be exactly as you think they are.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:25 pm

Treasury coffers will take a £66 billion annual hit if Britain goes for a so-called hard Brexit, Cabinet ministers have been warned.

Leaked Government papers suggest leaving the single market and switching to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would cause GDP to fall by up to 9.5 per cent compared with if the country remained in the European Union.
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