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Brexit

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malchior
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:11 am

The veto is even worse when you think that Britain has to negotiate an exit with so many players in the mix. The threat of that veto overhangs the whole process and essentially makes it a must use for certain players. Italy has far different concerns than Germany for example.

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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:16 pm

Since this is the unofficial British politics thread: A polling shift suggests Britain’s election may be more exciting — and unpredictable — than expected
When Britain's June 8 snap election was announced just a few weeks ago, the outcome seemed a done deal. Prime Minister Theresa May would extend her Conservative government's majority in Parliament — a move that would help her push through some of the trickier parts of the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

For Jeremy Corbyn, the divisive and at time embattled leftist leader of Britain's main opposition party, things looked grim. Poll numbers suggested that Labour would lose a large number of seats; one member of his own party predicted a “historic and catastrophic defeat.” There were widespread warnings that Britain risked becoming a one-party state and that Labour, a historic left-wing party in Europe, could be wiped out.

Yet as voting day looms, those fears are looking less and less likely. Instead, the Conservatives are starting to get worried.

Take a look at the average of polls collated by groups like Britain Elects and you'll see a clear surge in support for Labour. If the polls are right, this means that May could actually lose seats in Parliament rather than gain them. At least one poll has raised the possibility of a hung parliament, where no one party would have an outright majority — a scenario that could even see Corbyn as prime minister, if he could cobble together a coalition.

This unexpected scenario has prompted two big questions to hang over British politics for the past week or so. First, what could have happened to make Britons rethink their opinion of Corbyn, previously derided as “unelectable” by his critics? And secondly, could the polls just be wrong?
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:11 am


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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:35 am

The Tories are going to win the most seats, but instead of the historic landslide victory May expected when she called the snap election (and the accompanying complete implosion of Labour), it is now feasible that her majority will decrease. There is even a sliver of a shard of a fragment of possibility of a hung parliament.

Hence, :pop: instead of :coffee:.

Aside from the shift in polling, it will interesting to see how SNP does in Scotland. With a strong showing, they'll almost certainly claim a mandate for a do-over on the independence referendum.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Sat Jun 03, 2017 3:31 pm

I still think that it's :coffee: or :cofveve:

Not that I'm a fan of either of the two main parties - they're both pretty bad. The Lib Dems are at least somewhat better (though they have about as much chance of winning as, well, a third party over here does.)

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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:45 pm

Volatility seems to be the word of the moment.
The Conservative Party Campaign believes the election results in up to 30 or 40 seats are now in doubt, as unexpectedly high numbers of voters switch back and forth between backing the Tories and Labour.

One senior Conservative campaign source told Business Insider that there are now a far higher number of unpredictable seats than they had expected to be dealing with at this late stage. There were dozens of seats "switching between us and them in key battlegrounds," a senior strategist for the Conservatives told Business Insider.

In a normal election, about 10% of voters are likely to change their vote at this stage before the election, the source says. But this time around the percentage of voters potentially switching their loyalty between Labour and Conservative is around 20%, according to intelligence being examined inside Tory party HQ. That means that 30 to 40 seats where the result would normally be safe are now in doubt.

Elector volatility is so high this year that one in five voters is "extremely likely to change" their vote, the source says. This number has surprised Tory strategists.
Labour sources have also poured cold water on the narrowing polls. One party source told Business Insider that while they were now doing better in some parts of the country, they were hearing "very bad reports" from other regions.

One Labour source campaigning in a top target marginal seat for the Conservatives told BI that whereas at the start of the campaign they had all but given up hope of retaining the seat for Labour, they now believed the result was too close to call.

"It's definitely feeling more like 2010 than 2015 here," the source said, although they added that Labour may see some surprising losses in their former northern heartlands.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we held onto some southern marginal seats against the Tories but lost some other safe seats with 6,000 vote majorities elsewhere," they said.

The other fear among some people in Labour is that while their support has risen in recent weeks, they may be merely piling up votes in safe Labour seats and safe Tory seats, while continuing to do badly in the sort of marginal seats that will decide the election.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:17 pm

Today's the big day!

A British election campaign that few expected ends in a way that no one could have predicted
Britain’s seven-week sprint to an election that few expected began in April with forecasts of a landslide victory for the Conservatives, and a Margaret Thatcher-esque grip on power as far as the political eye could see for Prime Minister Theresa May.

It ended Wednesday in a way that no one could have predicted — with a rattled May being heckled during one of her few and characteristically awkward attempts to meet voters, while her once-hapless opponent, Jeremy Corbyn, spoke to large and adoring crowds that were earning him comparisons to Winston Churchill.

In between, the campaign was interrupted by two mass-casualty terrorist attacks, and May’s seemingly insurmountable lead dwindled, in at least some polls, to a few points.

As the nation prepares to vote Thursday, few believe that the far-left Corbyn could actually win. If he did gain the keys to Downing Street, it would rival, and perhaps top, 2016’s Brexit vote or President Trump’s November victory for most implausible political outcome of the past 12 months.

But even a win for May, if it’s insufficiently convincing, could leave her seriously damaged within her own party and hobbled going into all-important negotiations with European leaders that will determine whether the country’s European Union exit is the success she has promised or a grievous mistake.

“She’ll still win the election, but she’ll be weaker for it,” said Steven Fielding, a political-science professor at the University of Nottingham. “Jeremy Corbyn will lose the election, but he’ll be stronger for it.”
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Holman
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Re: Brexit

Post by Holman » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:05 pm

Whoa. The first exit polls were just released. UK exit polls have a history of pretty solid accuracy.

It looks like a disaster for the Tories. If the polling is correct, they won't even have a majority on their own.

This is the opposite of what May was aiming for when she called for a snap election to solidify power.

Seats:
Con: 314
Lab: 266
SNP: 34
LDem: 14
(Composition prior to the election:
Conservative 330
Labour 229
Scottish National 54
Liberal Democrat 9)

There are several tiny parties with MPs as well. 650 seats total.
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gilraen
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Re: Brexit

Post by gilraen » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:47 pm

Will be interesting to see the actual vote count but so far it looks like UK is getting itself a hung parliament (and not the good kind...okay, that was juvenile :lol: )

malchior
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:50 pm

Wow. I've been tracking this and May really ran an awful campaign. She will rightfully take the blame for this. I wonder how much this undercuts the British negotiating position at the same time.

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Alefroth
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Re: Brexit

Post by Alefroth » Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:23 pm

Now to see if Labour can put together a coalition government. I think the chances are good.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Alefroth » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:21 pm

It's nice to see UKIP lose their 1 seat.

Here's a good breakdown of what the numbers mean for everyone-

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40189806

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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:30 pm

It looks like SNP is losing a significant number of seats compared to the previous parliament. That will likely put a damper on the push for another Scottish independence referendum.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:33 pm

Alefroth wrote:Now to see if Labour can put together a coalition government. I think the chances are good.
Assuming the Tories have the largest plurality of seats, do they get to form a minority government first or would Labour have the opportunity to put together a coalition right off the bat?
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Alefroth
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Re: Brexit

Post by Alefroth » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:46 pm

Max Peck wrote:
Alefroth wrote:Now to see if Labour can put together a coalition government. I think the chances are good.
Assuming the Tories have the largest plurality of seats, do they get to form a minority government first or would Labour have the opportunity to put together a coalition right off the bat?
It's hard to tell. Apparently either one could try to form a minority government. They can start the process of forming a coalition right away and have until June 13th. It will be interesting to watch. As this article states, they may be entering uncharted waters and could even be facing a constitutional crisis.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40209087

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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:12 pm

That's a really good primer. Thanks for the link!
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Re: Brexit

Post by Holman » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:20 pm

This is a remarkable night.

I'm not a great fan of Corbyn, but the Tories definitely deserve all the punishment they're getting.

And of course watching the racist, proto-fascist UKIP simply evaporate into thin air is beautiful.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:25 pm

So if May ends up stepping down as Tory leader, I wonder if that means that Boris gets his chance in the limelight after all.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Rip » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:02 pm

You guys are celebrating too early again. She will have the seats she needs for control.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:06 pm

Rip wrote:You guys are celebrating too early again. She will have the seats she needs for control.
A close win still leaves May damaged as Tory leader. The knives will be coming out after her poor campaign performance.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:58 pm

Well, I have no love lost for May, but I would have liked this to have meant the end of Corbyn and replace him with someone more sensible (with more seats going to Lib Dems, given that the two major parties pushed to the edges).

Image

If the results are the above, and the current results of DUP getting 10 seats is right, than I would imagine the conservatives getting a coalition with DUP would happen, since, IIRC, DUP said they would want to go into a coalition with them.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:48 am

There's officially going to be a hung parliament. Different regions seem to be swinging different ways - Scotland is giving seats to Conservatives, while Labour is picking up seats in Wales and London (though Labour's pick ups in London are apparently being blunted by the anti-Semitic incidents in Labour, which has driven Jewish voters away from Labour).

Both Labour and Conservatives have picked up some seats that they haven't won in 50+ years.

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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:36 am

While this is technically a hung parliament, my understanding is that the Tories have a defacto majority, assuming a status quo where Sinn Fein (7) will not take their seats and DUP (10) will support the Tories as long as Corbyn leads Labour. This lowers the bar to 312 seats, and the Tories ended with 318. Still, this is a *yuge* rebuke for May given where things stood before she called the early election.

I was expecting Scotland to be the most interesting region, but it turns out that Northern Ireland is the belle of the ball. :)
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Re: Brexit

Post by LawBeefaroni » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:54 pm

Max Peck wrote:While this is technically a hung parliament, my understanding is that the Tories have a defacto majority, assuming a status quo where Sinn Fein (7) will not take their seats and DUP (10) will support the Tories as long as Corbyn leads Labour. This lowers the bar to 312 seats, and the Tories ended with 318. Still, this is a *yuge* rebuke for May given where things stood before she called the early election.

I was expecting Scotland to be the most interesting region, but it turns out that Northern Ireland is the belle of the ball. :)
318 is still short of the outright majority of 326 (which they already had at 330). The Tories and DUP can form a coalition and gain outright majority but they will more likely form a minority government. A coalition screws the DUP.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:57 pm

Guardian
The Democratic Unionist leader and most recent first minister of Northern Ireland, Arlene Foster, says she wants to “bring stability to our nation” by backing Theresa May and the Conservatives to continue in power.

Foster said in Belfast on Friday afternoon that she was entering discussions with May over the details of any arrangement that would prop up a minority government.

Foster said the election in Northern Ireland, which saw 10 DUP MPs, including two new ones, elected to the Commons, was a “great result” for the union.
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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:34 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Max Peck wrote:While this is technically a hung parliament, my understanding is that the Tories have a defacto majority, assuming a status quo where Sinn Fein (7) will not take their seats and DUP (10) will support the Tories as long as Corbyn leads Labour. This lowers the bar to 312 seats, and the Tories ended with 318. Still, this is a *yuge* rebuke for May given where things stood before she called the early election.

I was expecting Scotland to be the most interesting region, but it turns out that Northern Ireland is the belle of the ball. :)
318 is still short of the outright majority of 326 (which they already had at 330). The Tories and DUP can form a coalition and gain outright majority but they will more likely form a minority government. A coalition screws the DUP.
Hmmm, I wonder if that is why I used words like "technically" and "defacto" in my comment. :think:

The current status quo is that Sinn Fein MPs don't show up to take their seats, so they can't vote against the government in a confidence motion. That effectively reduces the number of seats to 643. Furthermore, DUP has let it be known that they will support the Tories in order to prevent Corbyn from becoming PM, although it remains to be seen whether there will be a formal coalition or merely a pledge of support for a minority government. As long as DUP keeps their word (and Corbyn continues to lead Labour), the Tories will have enough votes to govern, courtesy of Northern Ireland.
A DUP source said: “We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable. For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there’s a Tory PM.”
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:04 pm

Drama?

Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan
Ruth Davidson is to defy Theresa May’s plans for a hard Brexit and tear her Scottish party away from English control after the UK Tories’ disastrous General Election result.

Amid a growing clamour among senior Tories in London for Ms Davidson to be given a top position in the UK party, her aides are working on a deal that would see the Scottish party break away to form a separate organisation.

It would maintain a close relationship with the English party – they have been joined together as part of the United Kingdom Conservative and Unionist Party since 1965 - and its 13 MPs would take the Tory whip at the Commons.

Although it has been mooted for some time, the imminent split between the Scottish and English parties is a direct result of a dramatic deterioration in relations between the Scottish Tory hierarchy in Edinburgh and 10 Downing Street.

Fresh from her success in winning an extra 12 Scottish seats in Thursday’s election, at the same time as the Prime Minister was losing 21 constituencies in England, Ms Davidson also vowed to use her Commons votes to prioritise the single market over curbing immigration.

This is certain to split Tory ranks as Mrs May has pledged to take the UK out of both the single market and the EU customs union as part of her Brexit negotiations, which begin next week.

But after notching up the biggest Tory victory in Scotland in nearly 40 years, the Scottish party leader said that the election result did not give the Prime Minister a mandate to take Britain out of the single market.

Ms Davidson also signalled her opposition to Mrs May’s deal with the DUP in blunt fashion by tweeting a link to the same-sex marriage lecture she gave at Amnesty 's Pride lecture in Belfast last year.

She is engaged to Jen Wilson, an Irish Catholic Christian who campaigned during the Republic's same-sex marriage referendum, is a practising Christian herself and has said she would like to get married in a local church.

Her views could not be further from those of the DUP, a staunch opponent of same-sex marriage and supporter of the “traditional” definition of marriage. Last night, Ms Davidson said she had sought and received assurances from the Prime Minister that she would try to advance gay rights in Northern Ireland despite the DUP's record.
Or not? https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/sta ... 7270827009
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:28 pm

Has Theresa May Unwittingly Accelerated the Breakup of Great Britain?
As California burns and Donald Trump sets light to the Middle East, the baffling goings on in the state formally known as Great Britain must seem irrelevant to Americans, apart from the briefly reassuring fact that there is at least one other country where populist forces have led to utterly irrational behavior. Tough challenges face the British government as it enters trade negotiations. But what is clear now is that the U.K. has gained nothing so far except an illusory self-determination, which probably only has meaning if you a Brit who easily tears up at the sight of a Union Jack, or a flyby of the few remaining World War Two Spitfires.

The great irony is that the super patriots of the Brexit movement may have accelerated the breakup of the United Kingdom. Not only is the eventual unification of Ireland now a possibility, but Scotland–where there was a majority for remaining in the E.U.—believes it, too, is entitled to the exceptions made for the Northern Irish, who will be allowed free movement within the E.U. There will be millions of Remainers all around the U.K. who will wonder why the hell they don’t have the special status of people born in Northern Ireland.

The closer you look, the crazier everything becomes. Brexit minister David Davis assured Parliament that his office carried out 58 impact reports on leaving the E.U., then admitted that they didn’t exist. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, told a bewildered Commons committee that the split Cabinet had never even discussed what a post Brexit Britain looked like—all they wanted, in the words of the left-leaning Daily Mirror, was for the other side to lose. Brexiters have showed an astonishing ignorance about the Irish and Northern Irish, making bloopers worthy of schoolchildren. It is not even certain they know what the government has agreed to on Northern Ireland. The E.U. will now sit back and watch as the British struggle to square the circle of having an open border and leaving the customs union.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:02 am

Planning ahead, Britain's government has been doing an in depth , detailed study of how Brexit will affect it's economy.

U.K.'s Secret Brexit Studies Reveal That Airbus Makes Planes

Oh dear.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:21 pm

Italexit?
The people have spoken. But what are they saying? There are two main ways to read the results, and both have major consequences for Europe. One—and this is entirely new—is that one of the three pillar countries of the European Union now effectively has a euroskeptical majority in parliament; both Five Star and the League have called for rewriting treaties with Europe to give Italy more sovereignty. (Although it’s a big question whether they would team up to form a government; the election results have produced a hung parliament.) The second is that voters are punishing Italy’s governing elites—Renzi’s Democratic Party, but also Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party—for overseeing the country’s decline.

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Re: Brexit

Post by em2nought » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:30 pm

Starting to look like a crescent, kinda fitting huh?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:44 am

Reuters
Britain’s upper house of parliament is expected to inflict an embarrassing defeat on Theresa May’s government on Wednesday, challenging her refusal to remain in a customs union with the European Union after Brexit.

The prime minister, who has struggled to unite her Conservatives over Brexit, has said Britain will leave the EU’s single market and customs union after it quits the bloc next March so that London can negotiate its own free trade deals.

That stance has widened divisions within the party and raised the prospect of a defeat in parliament’s upper House of Lords, where the Conservatives do not command a majority.

Some Lords, from all parties, have indicated their support for an amendment to her Brexit blueprint, the EU withdrawal bill, which would require ministers to report what efforts they had made to secure a customs union by the end of October.

It does not explicitly say that Britain must reach a deal on such a union. Conservative lawmaker David Jones described it as an attempt “to give oxygen” to EU supporters in the lower house.
...
Debate over remaining in a customs union with the European Union has become one of the main flashpoints in the Brexit debate, which has sowed divisions across Britain.

The main opposition Labour Party says it would want a new customs union if it was in charge of the Brexit negotiations. May’s trade minister, Liam Fox, and others see such a deal as anathema if it prevents London negotiating its own trade deals.

But a customs union that sets external tariffs for goods imported into the EU, and allows them to flow freely, would offer a solution to the problem of ensuring no return to a hard border with the bloc on the island of Ireland.
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:45 am

If anyone is paying attention - Brexit has caused a meltdown in May's government. The Brexit Secretary, one of the Brexit ministers, and Boris Johnson have all resigned in the last few days. May is addressing parliament and they are pretty much beating on her about complete lack of progress in negotiations and the wisdom of her course. Is a general election coming?

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:06 pm

I was following in the beginning but I realized I can only watch one ally implode at a time without curling into a ball.

Thank god I don't give a crap about Poland, that country is heinous right now.

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Little Raven
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Re: Brexit

Post by Little Raven » Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:42 pm

There's something sad about watching a once great nation give the impression that it's falling apart at the seams.

Just 100 years ago, Great Britain was the premier power in the world. "The sun never sets on the British Empire" was not just a pithy saying, it was an actual fact. The official title of George V was "By the Grace of God, of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland and of the British Dominions beyond the Seas King, Defender of the Faith, Emperor of India," and while you always have to take royal titles with a grain of salt, his was, if anything, understated. He ruled over 412 million people, a staggering 24% of the world's population at the time, and held dominion over 13,700,000 square miles, almost a quarter of all the land on the planet. Everyone else, including those upstarts over in the US, was a distant second fiddle next to the glory of Britain.

But of course, they were an Empire, with all the problems that entails. Empires are temporary things, after all, and the British are perhaps to be commended for the relative grace with which they surrendered theirs once it became clear it was untenable. Two insanely costly world wars and the rise of her bastard child left Britain a shell of its former self, but even after those, she was still considered one of the world's major powers. And various British leaders, most especially Thatcher, felt obliged to occasionally remind the world why Britain held this position. I'm not THAT old yet, but I remember when Britain sent troops and ships to a tiny set of islands halfway across the world in order to kick the shit out of Argentina.

Fast forward to 2018, and Theresa May's...well, I guess we'll call it a plan. And as far as I can tell, May seems to be conceding that Britain is now incapable of doing even the most basic tasks expected of a nation state. Control it's own borders? Nope. Too hard. Gonna have to concede to the EU's "mobility framework." Determine it's own trade policy? Gah. Can't. We'll just have to submit to the ECJ. Determine her own laws? Well sure! Unless they contradict EU regulations, of course. Then we'll have no choice but to concede, lest we face penalties.

:shock: Isn't this the nation that promised to fight them on the beaches, in the fields, in the streets and towns and shops? The Empire That Never Sleeps is now the nation that can't so much as run a border checkpoint?

It's not like I think Brexit is a good idea or anything. It's almost certainly a stupid idea. But I had no idea that Britain had fallen so far that it was no longer able to function as an independent nation, which is my takeaway from the last week or so. Heck, it seems like its getting harder for Britain to even hold itself together. I constantly read threats that Scotland will leave if Brexit goes badly, that Northern Ireland must break away from Great Britain...heck, you can even find the fevered (if probably delusional) dreams of an independent London City-State if you go looking.

Now granted, I'm an American, and the influence that Great Britain has played in our country has been unique and long-lasting. It's very likely that I hold many misinformed notions about our neighbor across the pond. But as I flip from watching Gary Oldman channel Churchill in Darkest Hour to watching May stumble around a country estate trying to peddle a plan that Chamberlain would have looked at in horror, I find myself at a loss.

What the hell happened to you, Britain? You used to be cool. Or at least, you know, stable.
/. "She climbed backwards out her
\/ window into Outside Over There."

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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:46 am

Little Raven wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:42 pm
There's something sad about watching a once great nation give the impression that it's falling apart at the seams.

Just 100 years ago, Great Britain was the premier power in the world. "The sun never sets on the British Empire" was not just a pithy saying, it was an actual fact. The official title of George V was "By the Grace of God, of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland and of the British Dominions beyond the Seas King, Defender of the Faith, Emperor of India," and while you always have to take royal titles with a grain of salt, his was, if anything, understated. He ruled over 412 million people, a staggering 24% of the world's population at the time, and held dominion over 13,700,000 square miles, almost a quarter of all the land on the planet. Everyone else, including those upstarts over in the US, was a distant second fiddle next to the glory of Britain.

But of course, they were an Empire, with all the problems that entails. Empires are temporary things, after all, and the British are perhaps to be commended for the relative grace with which they surrendered theirs once it became clear it was untenable. Two insanely costly world wars and the rise of her bastard child left Britain a shell of its former self, but even after those, she was still considered one of the world's major powers. And various British leaders, most especially Thatcher, felt obliged to occasionally remind the world why Britain held this position. I'm not THAT old yet, but I remember when Britain sent troops and ships to a tiny set of islands halfway across the world in order to kick the shit out of Argentina.

Fast forward to 2018, and Theresa May's...well, I guess we'll call it a plan. And as far as I can tell, May seems to be conceding that Britain is now incapable of doing even the most basic tasks expected of a nation state. Control it's own borders? Nope. Too hard. Gonna have to concede to the EU's "mobility framework." Determine it's own trade policy? Gah. Can't. We'll just have to submit to the ECJ. Determine her own laws? Well sure! Unless they contradict EU regulations, of course. Then we'll have no choice but to concede, lest we face penalties.

:shock: Isn't this the nation that promised to fight them on the beaches, in the fields, in the streets and towns and shops? The Empire That Never Sleeps is now the nation that can't so much as run a border checkpoint?

It's not like I think Brexit is a good idea or anything. It's almost certainly a stupid idea. But I had no idea that Britain had fallen so far that it was no longer able to function as an independent nation, which is my takeaway from the last week or so. Heck, it seems like its getting harder for Britain to even hold itself together. I constantly read threats that Scotland will leave if Brexit goes badly, that Northern Ireland must break away from Great Britain...heck, you can even find the fevered (if probably delusional) dreams of an independent London City-State if you go looking.

Now granted, I'm an American, and the influence that Great Britain has played in our country has been unique and long-lasting. It's very likely that I hold many misinformed notions about our neighbor across the pond. But as I flip from watching Gary Oldman channel Churchill in Darkest Hour to watching May stumble around a country estate trying to peddle a plan that Chamberlain would have looked at in horror, I find myself at a loss.

What the hell happened to you, Britain? You used to be cool. Or at least, you know, stable.
Britain is so thoroughly boned politically. The problem that May has is that Brexit is fundamentally a terrible idea sold on impossible promises (with a touch of Russian intervention). Britain absolutely could completely exit from the EU. The problem is that it would cease to benefit from the EU's trade deals (negotiated with the leverage of access to the entire EU market) and would have to negotiate a long series of bilateral deals, all of which would probably be worse (since they would only be offering the UK market by itself). They could stop free movement between the UK and the EU ('control the border'), but that would just give mulinational corporations another reason to locate as many facilities as possible within the EU rather than in the UK. And there's also that free movement of labor is generally beneficial to modern economies. Like Trump, a lot of big name supporters (probably including Johnson) didn't really think it would ever pass, it was just a way to score points on the right flank politically.

So, May has been stuck between doing a real complete Brexit (the 'hard Brexit'), that is a thoroughly terrible deal that would probably cause massive damage to the UK economy (and could conceivably lead to the ultimate break up of the UK, as Scotland in particular is very pro-EU), or a 'soft Brexit', which would not wreck the economy but would essentially leave the UK de facto in the EU, only without representation or clout. The latter choice (what May has gone with) is probably the best, sensible choice, but it's still pretty dumb and stupid (and politically explosive).

And it gets better, since the main alternative to this fiasco is Corbyn, who is a cranky far-left lunatic who is basically the GOP's caricature of democratic leaders brought to life, and who also doesn't really want the UK to stay in the EU.

Good times all around.

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GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:23 am

They were doing fine until they colonized north America and then some of you decided to get cozy with the French.

America, you're why we can't have nice things.

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Kraken
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Re: Brexit

Post by Kraken » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:30 am

GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:23 am
They were doing fine until they colonized north America and then some of you decided to get cozy with the French.

America, you're why we can't have nice things.
I, for one, would have been a Tory. Independence was a bad idea that ended badly.

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Fitzy
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Re: Brexit

Post by Fitzy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:09 am

Where’s the tar and feathers when you need them?

malchior
Posts: 8515
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:17 am

Kraken wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:30 am
GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:23 am
They were doing fine until they colonized north America and then some of you decided to get cozy with the French.

America, you're why we can't have nice things.
I, for one, would have been a Tory. Independence was a bad idea that ended badly.
Same here. If we waited, maybe we would have ended up with a Commonwealth based Parliament system. Not that they are perfect but they are way better than how this shit show turned out.

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