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Brexit

For discussion of religion and politics

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Holman
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Re: Brexit

Post by Holman » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:36 am

Speaking of Brexit...

Trump is now in the UK for a working visit, where he has professed his friendship with Theresa May and his support for Brexit.

Of course that hasn't stopped him from giving a rambling interview to the Sun tabloid in which he essentially blasts May as an incompetent who can't even do a simple anti-immigrant Brexit right and threatens to withhold a US-UK trade deal. This, at a time when the May government is already reeling towards possible collapse.

Trump and May have a joint press conference today, and British headlines are dominated by the Sun interview. It will be awkward.

--

More tidbits from the interview:

--Trump claims that the U.S. GDP has "doubled or tripled" since his presidency began,
--insistence that Boris Johnson (who just quit May's government) would be a great PM,
--a complaint that the United Kingdom isn't called "England" anymore,
--a dire warning about immigrants "destroying" European culture,
--a denial that recent poisonings in the UK should affect his relationship with Putin.
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Grifman
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Re: Brexit

Post by Grifman » Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:36 pm

Today in a press conference, Trump called his own interview where he trashed May on tape, "fake news".

Another note, a "hard BREXIT" which would take England out of the EU customs union, would be a total economic disaster. May wants a "soft " BREXIT that keeps the UK in, because that is the only way to avoid economic meltdown. But that would require still ceding some amount of sovereignty to the EU, which is what BREXIT is all about. The problem is that BREXIT was sold as an easy deal, England would even get money back that it contributes to the EU. But the BREXITers were lying, it will be an economic disaster. Many, such as Johnson, never thought it would pass, but supported it for pure political gain. Now the bill is coming due. Some very prominent wealthy BREXITers' are taking their money out of the UK and moving it to the EU in a rank display of hypocrisy.

Frankly, if I were May, I'd make a public address and tell the UK that they were sold a bill of goods, and these are the choices and these are the consequences - and put it to a vote - let the voter decide what sort of BREXIT they want. Either that or wash her hands of it and let one of the true believers step up and deal with the mess they created.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Max Peck
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Re: Brexit

Post by Max Peck » Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:56 am

This will end well . . .

British reject May's Brexit plan, some turn to Boris and far right: poll
Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans to leave the European Union are overwhelmingly opposed by the British public and more than a third of voters would support a new right-wing political party committed to quitting the bloc, according to a new poll.

May’s political vulnerability was exposed by the survey which found voters would prefer Boris Johnson, who quit as her foreign minister two weeks ago, to negotiate with the EU and lead the Conservative Party into the next election.

Only 16 percent of voters say May is handling the Brexit negotiations well, compared with 34 percent who say that Johnson would do a better job, according to the poll conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times newspaper.
The Sunday Times poll found voters are increasingly polarized, with growing numbers of people alienated from the two main political parties.

Thirty-eight percent of people would vote for a new right-wing party that is committed to Brexit, while almost a quarter would support an explicitly far-right anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party, the poll found.

Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage and U.S. President Donald Trump’s former adviser Steve Bannon are in discussions about forming a new right-wing movement, according to The Sunday Times.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:31 pm

WaPo
[T]he British government is also warning — and panicking — British consumers and companies that they should brace themselves for a cold-turkey withdrawal, a “no-deal Brexit” or “Brexit doomsday.”

“I believe we will get a good deal, we will bring that back from the E.U. negotiations, and put that to Parliament,” Prime Minister Theresa May said in an interview with the BBC that aired Monday. But she added that if the British Parliament rejects her proposals, then the alternative “would be not having a deal.”

May’s government once sang a song of “Global Britain,” a vision for a 21st-century trading dynamo, exploiting new markets in new lands. But now Brexit secretary Dominic Raab is encouraging drug companies to stockpile extra medicine in case supplies cannot get onto the island after a no-deal Brexit.

Cadbury has started hoarding chocolate for fear that ingredients will become difficult to obtain.

On Thursday, the French minister for European affairs warned that British trains and planes might not be allowed into France without a deal, while the governor of the Bank of England told the cabinet that a no-deal Brexit would wreak havoc rivaling the financial crisis of 2008.

In its latest assessment, the International Monetary Fund warned Monday that the British economy would incur “substantial costs” without a deal in place.

It has gotten so bad that British authorities have had to downplay rumors the army would be deployed to maintain civil order.
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:31 pm

I've followed along enough to know that this is a rock and a hard place.

They've made exactly zero progress on this and it continues to loom over their heads.

I haven't followed closely enough to know who's supporting who and what the options are (beyond the obvious deal/no deal with the EU), so I don't know if we can expect anything in the coming months.

I know a lot of noise is being made but there is a lot of noise over there every single week about Brexit (for obvious reasons).

They have completely screwed themselves. If things go south it's gonna hurt, and I don't know how long it will take for them to recover. A decade at a minimum I would think. Longer, possibly. I don't know enough to know every little thing that rests on this, except to know that every little thing DOES rest on it.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:52 pm

The talk about effects approaching the financial crisis of 2008 aren't just cheap talk or hyperbole. With the City being such a systemically important part of the financial universe you have to think about massive capital outflows or movements running up to any deadline. In short, capital markets may panic and banks aren't designed for big runs on their reserves. The UK will be stuck making decisions with spiraling effects. Do they impose capital controls? Panic. Do they halt trading on certain platforms? If logistics falls apart between nations? You got it...panic and more panic. This is unexplored territory and it is a slow-motion disaster in the making.

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Re: Brexit

Post by LawBeefaroni » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:33 pm

Be careful what you vote for. You just might get it.
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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:14 pm

Lord Buckethead DID warn them:


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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:15 pm

Don't put it to a vote, dumbasses.

That's why people voted for you.

About 32% are deplorable in any case and will burn the country to the ground in a tantrum about how unfair everything is.

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:19 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:15 pm
Don't put it to a vote, dumbasses.

That's why people voted for you.

About 32% are deplorable in any case and will burn the country to the ground in a tantrum about how unfair everything is.
Yeah, that's the crazy thing. The whole Brexit referendum was called because the Conservative prime minister wanted to get his tea party right wing (especially Boris Johnson) to STFU about Brexiting. Basically to clamp down on his right wing intraparty fighting. It wouldn't really have worked even if Remain won, and they wound up starting this countrywide fire over their political bullshit.

Makes me feel mildly better about the U.S. political system, at least. Not MUCH, but a little.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Archinerd » Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:17 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:19 pm
It wouldn't really have worked even if Remain won, and they wound up starting this countrywide fire over their political bullshit.
Even scarier, there is no guarantee the fire won't spread further.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:00 am

Explaining Brexit with cakes:
LEAVER: I want an omelette.

REMAINER: Right. It’s just we haven’t got any eggs.

LEAVER: Yes, we have. There they are. [HE POINTS AT A CAKE]

REMAINER: They’re in the cake.

LEAVER: Yes, get them out of the cake, please.

REMAINER: But we voted in 1975 to put them into a cake.

LEAVER: Yes, but that cake has got icing on it. Nobody said there was going to be icing on it.

REMAINER: Icing is good.

LEAVER: And there are raisins in it. I don’t like raisins. Nobody mentioned raisins. I demand another vote.

DAVID CAMERON ENTERS.

DAVID CAMERON: OK.

DAVID CAMERON SCARPERS.

LEAVER: Right, where’s my omelette?

REMAINER: I told you, the eggs are in the cake.

LEAVER: Well, get them out.

EU: It’s our cake.

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes, get them out now.

REMAINER: I have absolutely no idea how to get them out. Don’t you know how to get them out?

LEAVER: Yes! You just get them out and then you make an omelette.

REMAINER: But how?! Didn’t you give this any thought?

LEAVER: Saboteur! You’re talking eggs down. We could make omelettes before the eggs went into the cake, so there’s no reason why we can’t make them now.

THERESA MAY: It’s OK, I can do it.

REMAINER: How?

THERESA MAY: There was a vote to remove the eggs from the cake, and so the eggs will be removed from the cake.

REMAINER: Yeah, but…

LEAVER: Hang on, if we take the eggs out of the cake, does that mean we don’t have any cake? I didn’t say I didn’t want the cake, just the bits I don’t like.

EU: It’s our cake.

REMAINER: But you can’t take the eggs out of the cake and then still have a cake.

LEAVER: You can. I saw the latest Bake Off and you can definitely make cakes without eggs in them. It’s just that they’re horrible.

REMAINER: Fine. Take the eggs out. See what happens.

LEAVER: It’s not my responsibility to take the eggs out. Get on with it.

REMAINER: Why should I have to come up with some long-winded incredibly difficult chemical process to extract eggs that have bonded at the molecular level to the cake, while somehow still having the cake?

LEAVER: You lost, get over it.

THERESA MAY: By the way, I’ve started the clock on this.

REMAINER: So I assume you have a plan?

THERESA MAY: Actually, back in a bit. Just having another election.

REMAINER: Jeremy, are you going to sort this out?

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes. No. Maybe.

EU: It’s our cake.

LEAVER: Where’s my omelette? I voted for an omelette.

REMAINER: This is ridiculous. This is never going to work. We should have another vote, or at least stop what we’re doing until we know how to get the eggs out of the cake while keeping the bits of the cake that we all like.

LEAVER/MAY/CORBYN: WE HAD A VOTE. STOP SABOTAGING THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. EGGSIT MEANS EGGSIT.

REMAINER: Fine, I’m moving to France. The cakes are nicer there.

LEAVER: You can’t. We’ve taken your freedom of movement.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:57 am

News is breaking that the inevitable failure of a ratification of the May brokered Brexit deal has been postponed until it can fail again later.

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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:59 am

Not that they're going to be capable of taking advantage of this, but the European Court of Justice ruled that Britain can unilaterally call off Brexit without permission from the other EU states. My impression is that a second referendum would probably end in favo(u)r of remaining, but seems like that's probably not going to happen, because the major party leaders are all fools and idiots.

The one big upshot of Brexit is that it does make me feel a little bit better about how our political system works.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:06 pm

I agree, My take on May postponing this vote is that it is to prevent a second referendum from being feasible. If it had failed today, they would have had to talk about another referendum or crashing out plus a no confidence vote. In other words, this move was to probably partially to protect herself and force people to eventually accept her plan. Ugly stuff.

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:22 pm

malchior wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:06 pm
I agree, My take on May postponing this vote is that it is to prevent a second referendum from being feasible. If it had failed today, they would have had to talk about another referendum or crashing out plus a no confidence vote. In other words, this move was to probably partially to protect herself and force people to eventually accept her plan. Ugly stuff.
The main problem is that Corbyn won't push for a new referendum either, because he's a fool who also dislikes the EU for different reasons (views it as impeding a socialist state in the UK).

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:33 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:22 pm
The main problem is that Corbyn won't push for a new referendum either, because he's a fool who also dislikes the EU for different reasons (views it as impeding a socialist state in the UK).
Yeah I agree - but keeping this vote "out there" was part of a strategy to still keep the focus on her negotiating with the EU. Which clearly the EU is not interested in. They've already said they'll clarify statements in the agreement but they won't re-open the books. The insanity is that this showdown over the 'backstop' was predicted early in this process. This is like watching WW1 kicking off without all the excuses about why it couldn't be stopped.

I've been watching this session and I don't think her strategy is tenable anyway. The MPs see right through this as a time wasting exercise. The factions all want to proceed in their own directions and that chaos prevents a solution. They are basically beating on her rhetorically right now. Strong questioning about her credibility and view on reality is dominating. It is pretty clear that the only reason she is still PM is because no one wants to be PM until the dust settles here. What a disaster this is.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Sepiche » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm

The obvious play for some time has been to have another vote and hope they can convince the EU to take some sort of payoff and forget the whole thing ever happened.

Given Nigel Firange's disappearing act after the Brexit vote and his potential ties to Russia they have every reason to question the motivation of many of the Brexit campaigners.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:58 pm

The FX rate on the pound and world markets took a strong dive during this session. It looks like many investors are taking the opportunity to begin to throw in the towel for the year on the uncertainty.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Alefroth » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:13 pm

Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm
The obvious play for some time has been to have another vote and hope they can convince the EU to take some sort of payoff and forget the whole thing ever happened.

Given Nigel Firange's disappearing act after the Brexit vote and his potential ties to Russia they have every reason to question the motivation of many of the Brexit campaigners.
No payoff required. EU said they could reverse their decision at any time.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Sepiche » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:15 pm

Alefroth wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:13 pm
Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm
The obvious play for some time has been to have another vote and hope they can convince the EU to take some sort of payoff and forget the whole thing ever happened.

Given Nigel Firange's disappearing act after the Brexit vote and his potential ties to Russia they have every reason to question the motivation of many of the Brexit campaigners.
No payoff required. EU said they could reverse their decision at any time.
I thought I remembered the EU president giving dire warnings about the UK trying to just go back to business as usual, but that might have been posturing that I misinterpreted.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Alefroth » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:20 pm

Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:15 pm
Alefroth wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:13 pm
Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm
The obvious play for some time has been to have another vote and hope they can convince the EU to take some sort of payoff and forget the whole thing ever happened.

Given Nigel Firange's disappearing act after the Brexit vote and his potential ties to Russia they have every reason to question the motivation of many of the Brexit campaigners.
No payoff required. EU said they could reverse their decision at any time.
I thought I remembered the EU president giving dire warnings about the UK trying to just go back to business as usual, but that might have been posturing that I misinterpreted.
The ruling just came out today.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Sepiche » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:02 pm

Alefroth wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:20 pm
Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:15 pm
Alefroth wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:13 pm
Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm
The obvious play for some time has been to have another vote and hope they can convince the EU to take some sort of payoff and forget the whole thing ever happened.

Given Nigel Firange's disappearing act after the Brexit vote and his potential ties to Russia they have every reason to question the motivation of many of the Brexit campaigners.
No payoff required. EU said they could reverse their decision at any time.
I thought I remembered the EU president giving dire warnings about the UK trying to just go back to business as usual, but that might have been posturing that I misinterpreted.
The ruling just came out today.
Wow, that makes the right path even more obvious.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:09 pm

Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:02 pm
Alefroth wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:20 pm
Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:15 pm
Alefroth wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:13 pm
Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm
The obvious play for some time has been to have another vote and hope they can convince the EU to take some sort of payoff and forget the whole thing ever happened.

Given Nigel Firange's disappearing act after the Brexit vote and his potential ties to Russia they have every reason to question the motivation of many of the Brexit campaigners.
No payoff required. EU said they could reverse their decision at any time.
I thought I remembered the EU president giving dire warnings about the UK trying to just go back to business as usual, but that might have been posturing that I misinterpreted.
The ruling just came out today.
Wow, that makes the right path even more obvious.
They have deep divisions between their factions that clouds all the paths. There isn't a right path anymore. At this late stage they have three options, take this deal, no deal, or no brexit. Each path does terrible damage to the UK.

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:15 pm

Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:02 pm
Alefroth wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:20 pm
Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:15 pm
Alefroth wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:13 pm
Sepiche wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm
The obvious play for some time has been to have another vote and hope they can convince the EU to take some sort of payoff and forget the whole thing ever happened.

Given Nigel Firange's disappearing act after the Brexit vote and his potential ties to Russia they have every reason to question the motivation of many of the Brexit campaigners.
No payoff required. EU said they could reverse their decision at any time.
I thought I remembered the EU president giving dire warnings about the UK trying to just go back to business as usual, but that might have been posturing that I misinterpreted.
The ruling just came out today.
Wow, that makes the right path even more obvious.
But as far as I'm aware no political leader with the capacity to make a new referendum happen is pushing for a new referendum. And they're running out of time pretty quickly given that the drop dead "hard brexit" deadline isn't that far away.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:26 pm

On the bright side, that ought to make foreign tourism nice and cheap for a few years.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Fireball » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:36 pm

This is where the mistake of Labour picking Corbyn becomes painfully clear. Any reasonable Labour leader would be demanding a new referendum now, and would be poised to tear away a lot of reasonable Tories in the next general election. Unfortunately, Corbyn is the Sanders of the UK, and refuses to consider any path but the one he's alway been on. He's incapable of seizing this moment... incapable of saving a country that desperately needs someone to save it.
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:40 pm

Fireball wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:36 pm
This is where the mistake of Labour picking Corbyn becomes painfully clear. Any reasonable Labour leader would be demanding a new referendum now, and would be poised to tear away a lot of reasonable Tories in the next general election. Unfortunately, Corbyn is the Sanders of the UK, and refuses to consider any path but the one he's alway been on. He's incapable of seizing this moment... incapable of saving a country that desperately needs someone to save it.
Yup.

As it is, with Corbyn it's hard to see how the UK avoids the disaster of a hard Brexit.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:47 pm


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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:51 pm

WaPo
British Prime Minister Theresa May embarked Tuesday on a whirlwind tour of European capitals to try to win concessions on her deal to pull Britain from the European Union, a day after the plan’s unpopularity forced her to cancel a key parliamentary vote.

But the issue that has made the Brexit deal politically toxic at home is nonnegotiable on the European side, and it was unclear whether May could do anything to alter her own political math as she bounced from The Hague to Berlin to Brussels.

Leaders in those capitals offered kind words and said they would do everything they could to help her sell the deal to her own public, but they refused to back down from an ironclad backup plan to ensure there will never be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

“There is no room whatsoever for renegotiation,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday. “Ireland will never be left alone.”
...
In Brussels, European leaders said one after another said they could imagine no change in the fundamentals of the deal.
...
Asked whether the European Union could do anything to help May, German Minister of State for Europe Michael Roth said “it’s always good to talk to each other.

But on Tuesday, leaders instead appeared to be talking past each other. Roth’s British counterpart, Martin Callanan, said that May wanted “additional, legal reassurances that the U.K. cannot be permanently trapped in the Irish backstop,” using the term for the backup plan that would keep an open border on the island of Ireland. “That’s been the issue all along, and that’s the issue at the heart of the concerns expressed by many members of parliament.”
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:54 pm

malchior wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:47 pm
:clap:
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Re: Brexit

Post by tjg_marantz » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:11 am

Home of the Akimbo AWPs

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Re: Brexit

Post by Paingod » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:44 am

Isgrimnur wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:54 pm
malchior wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:47 pm
:clap:
In.Deed.

That was WAY longer and more committed than I expected, and got a couple good laughs.
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Re: Brexit

Post by raydude » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:15 pm

Fireball wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:36 pm
This is where the mistake of Labour picking Corbyn becomes painfully clear. Any reasonable Labour leader would be demanding a new referendum now, and would be poised to tear away a lot of reasonable Tories in the next general election. Unfortunately, Corbyn is the Sanders of the UK, and refuses to consider any path but the one he's alway been on. He's incapable of seizing this moment... incapable of saving a country that desperately needs someone to save it.
I don't understand. What the hell could possibly be his long game?

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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:22 pm

raydude wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:15 pm
Fireball wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:36 pm
This is where the mistake of Labour picking Corbyn becomes painfully clear. Any reasonable Labour leader would be demanding a new referendum now, and would be poised to tear away a lot of reasonable Tories in the next general election. Unfortunately, Corbyn is the Sanders of the UK, and refuses to consider any path but the one he's alway been on. He's incapable of seizing this moment... incapable of saving a country that desperately needs someone to save it.
I don't understand. What the hell could possibly be his long game?
As Labour leader, he is at the moment the main alternative to the Conservatives. If things get bad enough, and the conservatives get unpopular enough, it's not hard to imagine him becoming PM after the next election. So he doesn't totally have the strongest of political incentives to get the best outcome for the country.

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raydude
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Re: Brexit

Post by raydude » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:17 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:22 pm
raydude wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:15 pm
Fireball wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:36 pm
This is where the mistake of Labour picking Corbyn becomes painfully clear. Any reasonable Labour leader would be demanding a new referendum now, and would be poised to tear away a lot of reasonable Tories in the next general election. Unfortunately, Corbyn is the Sanders of the UK, and refuses to consider any path but the one he's alway been on. He's incapable of seizing this moment... incapable of saving a country that desperately needs someone to save it.
I don't understand. What the hell could possibly be his long game?
As Labour leader, he is at the moment the main alternative to the Conservatives. If things get bad enough, and the conservatives get unpopular enough, it's not hard to imagine him becoming PM after the next election. So he doesn't totally have the strongest of political incentives to get the best outcome for the country.
So he gets to be ruler of a broken and ruined land? I guess whatever floats his boat.

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El Guapo
Posts: 31529
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Location: Boston

Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:31 am

raydude wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:17 pm
El Guapo wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:22 pm
raydude wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:15 pm
Fireball wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:36 pm
This is where the mistake of Labour picking Corbyn becomes painfully clear. Any reasonable Labour leader would be demanding a new referendum now, and would be poised to tear away a lot of reasonable Tories in the next general election. Unfortunately, Corbyn is the Sanders of the UK, and refuses to consider any path but the one he's alway been on. He's incapable of seizing this moment... incapable of saving a country that desperately needs someone to save it.
I don't understand. What the hell could possibly be his long game?
As Labour leader, he is at the moment the main alternative to the Conservatives. If things get bad enough, and the conservatives get unpopular enough, it's not hard to imagine him becoming PM after the next election. So he doesn't totally have the strongest of political incentives to get the best outcome for the country.
So he gets to be ruler of a broken and ruined land? I guess whatever floats his boat.
Chaos is a ladder.

malchior
Posts: 8333
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:55 am

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:31 am
Chaos is a ladder.
+1

Corbyn has been waiting a long time for his opportunity and this is probably his best, greatest chance to become PM and make real change. He can with some honesty point at this whole mess and say that global capitalism is the cause. That the level of inequality in the West is the real problem, etc. His problem is that his party is divided in a similar way to the Tories. He can't even get his own people to not call him out in parliament and embarrass him (especially Gardiner). If I were to handicap it as I see it now, the chance for a no deal are probably higher than should be possible. I could see May throwing in the towel on her deal and relinquishing to a 2nd referendum but there will be hell to pay. However, I think there is a lower chance of that because only part of the left want it and almost no one on the right does. If I was to lay money out, I'd bet on them driving over that cliff.

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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:37 am

malchior wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:55 am
El Guapo wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:31 am
Chaos is a ladder.
+1

Corbyn has been waiting a long time for his opportunity and this is probably his best, greatest chance to become PM and make real change. He can with some honesty point at this whole mess and say that global capitalism is the cause. That the level of inequality in the West is the real problem, etc. His problem is that his party is divided in a similar way to the Tories. He can't even get his own people to not call him out in parliament and embarrass him (especially Gardiner). If I were to handicap it as I see it now, the chance for a no deal are probably higher than should be possible. I could see May throwing in the towel on her deal and relinquishing to a 2nd referendum but there will be hell to pay. However, I think there is a lower chance of that because only part of the left want it and almost no one on the right does. If I was to lay money out, I'd bet on them driving over that cliff.
I think his rigid ideology is also a driving factor - as I mentioned he dislikes the EU too, but for different reasons (neoliberal shills, etc.). Corbyn is far left, and the far left and far right often wind up in the same place on substantive issues, just with very different routes there (and while despising each other all the while).

At this point I would rate the probability on outcomes as:

80% - hard Brexit
10% - Parliamentary opposition blinks in the face of a hard Brexit and they accept May's deal (possibly with some minor face-saving tweaks)
5% - the EU ultimately agrees to some substantive tweak to the deal that smoothes the passage in Parliament
5% - new referendum.

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Sepiche
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Re: Brexit

Post by Sepiche » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:41 am

I follow British politics fairly closely, and it's still a bit of a mystery to me how Jeremy Corbyn managed to get to the head of Labour and stay there for so long given his wild views on so many topics.

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