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Brexit

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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:55 am

Sepiche wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:41 am
I follow British politics fairly closely, and it's still a bit of a mystery to me how Jeremy Corbyn managed to get to the head of Labour and stay there for so long given his wild views on so many topics.
I've seen some stuff indicating that Labour has some weird leadership electoral procedures, which basically provide a mechanism by which a small-ish group of committed activists was able to get Corbyn elected in a divided field.

In some ways I think it's a similar answer to how Trump got elected despite his wild views on so many topics - he has a strong committed base, and there were weird electoral rules that advantage a committed minority.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Sepiche » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:57 am

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:55 am
Sepiche wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:41 am
I follow British politics fairly closely, and it's still a bit of a mystery to me how Jeremy Corbyn managed to get to the head of Labour and stay there for so long given his wild views on so many topics.
I've seen some stuff indicating that Labour has some weird leadership electoral procedures, which basically provide a mechanism by which a small-ish group of committed activists was able to get Corbyn elected in a divided field.

In some ways I think it's a similar answer to how Trump got elected despite his wild views on so many topics - he has a strong committed base, and there were weird electoral rules that advantage a committed minority.
Thanks. Makes much more sense than my previous theory: elves.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:54 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:55 am
Sepiche wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:41 am
I follow British politics fairly closely, and it's still a bit of a mystery to me how Jeremy Corbyn managed to get to the head of Labour and stay there for so long given his wild views on so many topics.
I've seen some stuff indicating that Labour has some weird leadership electoral procedures, which basically provide a mechanism by which a small-ish group of committed activists was able to get Corbyn elected in a divided field.
I think that was how he was originally elected to the leadership of the party. He had few nominations for leadership but then won the party general election by well over 50% in a field with 4 or 5 candidates.
In some ways I think it's a similar answer to how Trump got elected despite his wild views on so many topics - he has a strong committed base, and there were weird electoral rules that advantage a committed minority.
He is popular with the actual people in Labour versus the Labour MPs who generally don't agree with his 'platform'. He lost a motion of 'no confidence' after it was felt he sabotaged the Remain campaign from the inside. Then the party membership actually re-elected him by a *larger* majority than the last vote.

The oversimplified basket case nature of his 'rule' is that the people vote for their MPs. Their MPs as a whole don't agree with the leader. However, the leader is popular with the people who voted for the MPs. It is a bizarre relationship to say the least.

It is an indication that 'the people' however are unsettled. Too bad it'll only lead to more misery (potentially much more!) in the end at this rate. That also serves as the basis for his weird position on Brexit. He agrees with it and likely believes much of Labour agrees with it. I'll say he wisely sees that a 2nd referendum isn't necessarily a slam dunk. They very well may lose it. People genuinely want *any change* versus smart change.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Moliere » Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:27 pm

"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow

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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:37 pm

Having trouble understanding the latest Brexit updates? Let John Oliver use Gilbert Gottfried to explain it all.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:19 pm

WaPo
Tick bloody tock. Britain has entered the last 100 days before the nation is set to abandon the European Union. But in the House of Commons on Wednesday, lawmakers spent the afternoon accusing each other of endless dithering.

They’re right. If Brexit feels interminable, it is because it is.

After yanking a vote on her Brexit deal last week, Prime Minister Theresa May said Parliament won’t get a chance to vote until after the Christmas holidays, during the third week of January. An exact date has not been set.

Jeremy Corbyn, the opposition Labour Party leader, got to his feet Wednesday to charge May with “recklessly running down the clock” in a effort to rob the country of any real alternative to her unloved Brexit deal. “The reality is the prime minister is stalling for time,” Corbyn said.

Alongside her well-known traits of grit, stubbornness and secrecy, May’s future biographers may add brinkmanship.

Whether by cunning or blunder, she is taking Brexit to the wire — which her admirers and critics say might have been her plan all along.
...
Over the holidays, May wants her fellow Tories to have a good long think about the cost of leaving the E.U. with no deal, a scary scenario that envisions economic chaos and canceled European vacations.

May’s cabinet on Tuesday activated a multibillion-dollar emergency plan to prepare for a no-deal exit, including sending letters to 140,000 British companies updating them on what they should do now, beyond pray.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Daehawk » Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:37 pm

They'll be better off someday.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:03 am

Jeremy Corbyn is facing a storm of criticism from Labour activists and MPs after suggesting he would press ahead with Brexit if the party won a snap general election.

In a sign that he is losing backing among overwhelmingly pro-remain Labour supporters, Corbyn was also accused of betraying the party membership by appearing reluctant to back the idea of supporting remain in a second referendum.


Corbyn faces furious Labour backlash over backing Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:52 pm

BBC
MPs will vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal on Tuesday, 15 January, government sources have confirmed.
...
Meanwhile, more than 200 MPs have signed a letter to Theresa May, urging her to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

It comes as a major exercise involving more than 100 lorries is being carried out in Kent to test out how to manage traffic queues near the Channel ports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:17 pm

Brexit vote fails by a huge margin; next steps uncertain.

Just a reminder that we're not the only western democracy fucking itself over.

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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:26 pm

It seems like there's an awful lot of idiots in the U.K. who have convinced themselves that they should get all the benefits of being a member of the EU, but without any of the costs. I really hope the EU ruling committee sticks to their guns and refuses to let them get away with that crap.
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:50 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:17 pm
Brexit vote fails by a huge margin; next steps uncertain.

Just a reminder that we're not the only western democracy fucking itself over.
Canada is feeling left out and there are a number of politicians and citizens desperately trying to get in on the action. Perhaps not to the same level as you two, but self destructive behaviour seems to be on the menu lately.

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:53 pm

hepcat wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:26 pm
It seems like there's an awful lot of idiots in the U.K. who have convinced themselves that they should get all the benefits of being a member of the EU, but without any of the costs. I really hope the EU ruling committee sticks to their guns and refuses to let them get away with that crap.
I think there is a disconnect between the benefits that come from membership and the membership itself. When someone enjoys benefits, they tend to start taking them for granted. Eventually they forget why the benefits exist in the first place.

I'm not contradicting you, I'm agreeing with you, I just think there is a disconnect, rather than a rationalization.

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Re: Brexit

Post by stessier » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:57 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:53 pm
hepcat wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:26 pm
It seems like there's an awful lot of idiots in the U.K. who have convinced themselves that they should get all the benefits of being a member of the EU, but without any of the costs. I really hope the EU ruling committee sticks to their guns and refuses to let them get away with that crap.
I think there is a disconnect between the benefits that come from membership and the membership itself. When someone enjoys benefits, they tend to start taking them for granted. Eventually they forget why the benefits exist in the first place.

I'm not contradicting you, I'm agreeing with you, I just think there is a disconnect, rather than a rationalization.
It was the same with Obamacare. People who wanted it abolished were shocked when they lost the benefits/privileges of it because they had no idea they were related. And that was for something only 4-ish years old - not generational.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Daveman » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:07 pm

If I understand things correctly, the EU has said the UK could rescind their request to leave and everything would continue as is. How would this work? A letter from the Prime Minister? Subject to Parliamentary vote?

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:16 pm

Daveman wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:07 pm
If I understand things correctly, the EU has said the UK could rescind their request to leave and everything would continue as is. How would this work? A letter from the Prime Minister? Subject to Parliamentary vote?
I am unsure of that particular situation, although I do recall early talk of penalties. Threatening to leave and then not leaving is not healthy for the union either, particularly if it sets a precedent or is done multiple times. I don't know the answer to your question though.

In any case, the problem is that the UK government has painted itself into a corner. They have a mandate from their citizens to do the impossible. Leave the EU but with no hardship or loss of EU benefits. I'm not 100% sure but I believe that the vote was legally binding. I.e. the UK government can't just ignore the vote and move forward as if it never happened.

So not only is deciding to leave the EU a fustercluck, they are now in a limbo they can't get out of. They can't stay without a legal way to do so, and they can't leave because leaving results in unacceptable hardship (not to mention fodder for opposition politicians).

May knew what she was getting herself into when she accepted leadership. Everyone else knew, so she certainly should have known. I'm an ocean away with a barely cursory understanding of their politics, and I knew.

Doomed. DDDdddoooommmed, I tell you.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Vorret » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:56 pm

I'm sure the UK thought they'd have more bargaining power but they hit one hell of a wall. Entertaining train wreck for sure.
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Re: Brexit

Post by GungHo » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:44 am

Vorret wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:56 pm
I'm sure the UK thought they'd have more bargaining power but they hit one hell of a wall. Entertaining train wreck for sure.
I heard audio of their parliament meeting today with the vote down of May's proposal and then a member telling parliament her planned to move forward with a 'no confidence' vote on May, tomorrow. Scary shit tbh. Sounded almost exactly like the beginning of 'The Darkest Hour' when Chamberlain was being ousted.

I dunno what they do but it certainly doesn't look good. I just hope they don't take everyone else down with them (though I'm certain the rest of the world is saying the same about the US and our never-ending clown show...😕).
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:28 pm

WaPo
A day after the crushing defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan, members of Parliament took up a no-confidence motion, insulting and disparaging her for hours and hours on Wednesday.

Yet she survived, by a vote of 325 to 306.
...
Although a third of May’s Conservative Party members voted against her 585-page withdrawal agreement, negotiated with European leaders over two years, and even though her party challenged her leadership in a confidence vote just last month, Conservatives supported her Wednesday. Besides not having an obvious leader waiting in the wings, the Tories do not want a general election against the opposition Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, who called for the no-confidence vote.

She will have until Monday to return to Parliament and present her Plan B.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Jaymann » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:03 pm

I'm not sure I understand this vote - was it to go through with Brexit or not go through with it?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:27 pm

Motions of no confidence in the United Kingdom
In the United Kingdom, confidence motions are a means of testing the support of the government (executive) in a legislative body, and for the legislature to remove the government from office. A confidence motion may take the form of either a vote of confidence, usually put forward by the government, or a vote of no confidence (or censure motion[1]), usually proposed by the opposition. When such a motion is put to a vote in the legislature, if a vote of confidence is defeated, or a vote of no confidence is passed, then the incumbent government must resign, or call a general election. At least 434 votes or more than two thirds of votes of MPs are required for such a motion to pass in the House of Commons[2].
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Re: Brexit

Post by Jaymann » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:41 pm

I understand the no-confidence vote. I was referring to the voting down of plan A.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Daveman » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:14 pm

Brexit is happening. The vote the other day was for a deal negotiated by the U.K. and the EU that would presumably keep some of the pros of EU membership while minimizing the cons, from the U.K. perspective. It failed spectacularly because:

1. Those who don't want Brexit think it's a bad deal and voted against it.
2. Those who do want Brexit still want a good deal and think the proposal isn't enough and voted against it.
3. Those who want nothing to do with the EU don't want any sort of deal and voted against it.

So the deal is dead, Brexit is still upcoming but will be the "hard" no deal variety unless a new deal can be made that both the EU and parliament will approve. EU has repeatedly said this was the best deal they'd accept so odds of that happening before the March? deadline is low.

The vote failed so badly it prompted the call for today's no confidence vote.

As I asked a few posts ago, the EU did say the U.K. could rescind the whole thing but I don't know how that could come about. Would it require another referendum, a vote in parliament, or just the PM saying "never mind"?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Jaymann » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:38 pm

Thanks, Dave. That was a great explanation.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Vorret » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:44 pm

The vote was so close.

I understand democracy and how important it is but sometimes I feel some decision should take more than 50+1. We've had this in Quebec where we barely scrapped by on the "no" vote with, if I remember correctly something like 50.60% of the votes. Reverse this and you're leaving a country while almost half the population of said province isn't agreeing at all with this.

Brexit, for how important it is, should have been a 60% vote or something like that.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Sepiche » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:57 pm

Daveman wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:14 pm
As I asked a few posts ago, the EU did say the U.K. could rescind the whole thing but I don't know how that could come about. Would it require another referendum, a vote in parliament, or just the PM saying "never mind"?
As I understand it, the referendum was non-binding and parliament could opt to ignore it and drop the whole thing, but the conservatives are understandably reticent to buck what they see as the will of their supporters.

I've felt for some time the least painful path is to call for another referendum, for any politicians with an ounce of sense to point to the disinformation (and possible Russian support) of the leave campaign, and hope that's enough to swing enough voters over to remain to give them a mandate to drop the whole business.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Kraken » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:10 pm

As I understand it, the best outcome would be:

UK to EU: JK, LOL
EU to UK: WTF? OK
TrumPutin: ROFL! BRB

But as of right now, nobody knows how the UK can get to JK.

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:20 pm

Maybe, but what happens if the UK again votes to leave? Have a third referendum? A fourth?

I suggested that the original referendum was legally binding. It is not.

Parliament can simply pretend it didn't happen. Whatever chaos that would cause has got to be better than the chaos and economic hardship a no deal brevity would cause.

Politicians like being employed however, so the chance that they actually ignore the referendum result is pretty low, particularly in light of all the not ignoring they've already done.

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Re: Brexit

Post by GungHo » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:26 pm

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/revo ... 37321.html

Interesting idea. Pretty sure there would be major political consequences for literally the entire government however. But if the alternative is the 'crash out' no deal then do they really have another option?
Kind of a disaster really and I don't think we here in America are paying enough attention to it(though honestly how could we with all of the trump shit?).
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:54 am

Bloomberg
Parliament is inching toward a plan to delay Brexit as a way of preventing a chaotic no-deal departure.
...
In Brussels, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has been talking about Ireland -- amid controversy over remarks on Tuesday from a European Commission spokesperson that there will be a hard border on the island if the U.K. leaves the bloc without a deal.

While he used his speech to say the border would remain the U.K.’s responsibility, he didn’t conceal the problem. He underlined the importance of having checks at all of the EU’s external frontiers -- which the Irish border will become -- in order to guard against the infiltration into the bloc’s single market of sub-standard goods or unsafe food. That’s the Irish government’s dilemma in a nutshell.

The so-called backstop, enshrined in the Brexit deal, is intended to prevent controls at the Irish border unless or until a better arrangement is found, and Barnier showed no sign that the EU is willing to remove it to placate British lawmakers. He fell back on his well-rehearsed argument that the EU doesn’t ever want to use it.
...
An attempt by pro-Brexit MPs to deny time to the Cooper-Boles bill, which would delay Britain’s departure (see 11.30 a.m.) has failed. The government didn’t move the business motion that the euro-skeptics were trying to amend, meaning the amendment didn’t get voted on.
...
German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier confirms in public what officials have said in private: Germany would be comfortable with an extension of the exit day deadline.

“If the U.K. would need more time to clarify its position, I would not mind,” Altmaier told a panel in Davos.

He’s taken a slightly softer line than some other countries, which have argued that an extension would only be acceptable if there’s a clear new plan on the table.
...
France would be willing to consider an extension to exit day but only if there’s a clear change in policy that has the backing of a majority in the U.K. Parliament.
...
May faced repeated questions in the Commons over whether she should extend Article 50 and delay Brexit beyond March. She’s still against the idea, but her answers didn’t close the door on it.
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:01 pm

I think it is also interesting that the parliamentary shenanigans have prompted parts of the business community to essentially throw in the towel and declare they are leaving. CME Group is moving some FX exchange business units to Amsterdam. Sony is moving their UK presence to Amsterdam. Dyson (owned 100% by a brexiteer!) is moving to Singapore. Talk about a complete shit show.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:31 pm

Reuters
The European Union has a message for British Prime Minister Theresa May as she plots a path out of the Brexit impasse: a backup plan for the Irish border can be tweaked but will have to be included in any divorce deal.
...
Ahead of Tuesday’s votes in the British parliament on a way forward, MPs in May’s party are pushing for her to demand the European Union drop the backstop and replace it with something else.

Ireland said the backstop was staying and the European Commission repeated on Monday that the withdrawal agreement text, and its backstop component, is not open for renegotiation.
...
The backstop is a type of insurance policy aimed at preventing a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland if no other solutions can be agreed. It is the most contentious part of May’s deal.
...
Possible amendments floated by EU officials range from further public assurances that the backstop would probably never be used or only for a brief period to amending the text which accompanies the treaty and which lays out expectations for the trading relationship that will come in after the transition.

The EU has explicitly said if Britain were to stay in a customs union indefinitely, as the opposition Labour Party favours, that could leave the backstop redundant.
...
However, a looming no-deal Brexit, in which the EU insists Ireland cannot leave an open door to British goods, has highlighted the difficulty Ireland will face if the backstop issue scuppers an agreement.
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:37 pm

Meanwhile Theresa May continues to execute her time wasting strategy.
Facing a series of crucial votes in Parliament, Prime Minister Theresa May raised the stakes on Tuesday by promising to reopen Britain’s withdrawal agreement with the European Union, putting her on a direct collision course with the bloc.

Mrs. May’s move came at a critical time, with Parliament voting Tuesday evening on a series of amendments to her Brexit plan, which earlier this month suffered one of the greatest defeats in modern British history. Before the night is out, Parliament could reverse decades of protocol and practice and assert control over policymaking that has been dominated by the governing party and its prime minister.

Mrs. May told Parliament that she would seek “significant and legally binding” changes in the 585-page text, painstakingly negotiated over more than two years, to secure changes in the so-called Irish backstop plan that aims to ensure that goods cross the Irish frontier without any customs checks.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:54 pm

WaPo
Britain and the European Union refused to budge an inch Thursday toward any compromise over Brexit, but at least they are on speaking terms again about their impending divorce.

They agreed to further negotiations in the next few weeks, although that means any deal will come perilously close to the scheduled deadline of March 29. That risks a chaotic departure for Britain that could be costly to both sides — both to businesses and ordinary people.

“A no-deal is for us not an option. It is a disaster on both sides of the Channel,” said Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s chief Brexit official.

Looking at the ever-tighter deadline, British Prime Minister Theresa May said after talks at EU headquarters in Brussels, “it’s not going to be easy.”

But she vowed: “I am going to deliver Brexit. I am going to deliver it on time.”

May was able to clear the air after EU Council President Donald Tusk exacerbated the frosty climate Wednesday by wondering aloud what “special place in hell” might be reserved for those who backed Brexit with no idea of how to deliver it.

May said she had “raised with President Tusk the language that he used,” saying his words “caused widespread dismay” in Britain.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:47 pm

Vox
British Prime Minister Theresa May, faced with the near-impossible task of renegotiating part of her Brexit deal with the European Union before the rapidly approaching Brexit deadline, has resorted to the time-honored strategy of stalling for time.

“Having secured an agreement with the European Union for further talks, we now need some time to complete that process,” May said in a speech to Parliament on Tuesday. “When we achieve the progress we need, we will bring forward another meaningful vote.”
...
When that next “meaningful vote” in Parliament will actually take place, though, is still unclear. But it’s getting precipitously close to the March 29, 2019, deadline, the date when the UK will leave the EU, with or without an agreement in place.

“The talks are at a crucial stage,” May told Parliament on Tuesday. “We now all need to hold our nerve to get the changes this House requires and deliver Brexit on time.”
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Re: Brexit

Post by Pyperkub » Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:54 pm

This is like watching a train barrelling towards another train, and not taking any of the clearly marked off ramps. In sloooooow motion.
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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:48 am

Pyperkub wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:54 pm
This is like watching a train barrelling towards another train, and not taking any of the clearly marked off ramps. In sloooooow motion.
Hey, the people voted for a head-on collision. Who are we to question the will of the people?

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GreenGoo
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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:23 am

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:48 am
Pyperkub wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:54 pm
This is like watching a train barrelling towards another train, and not taking any of the clearly marked off ramps. In sloooooow motion.
Hey, the people voted for a head-on collision. Who are we to question the will of the people?
I'm just impressed that the engineers are willing to keep the throttle open when they're on the train too.

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Isgrimnur
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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:27 am

They're going to Just-Cause it out the back on their golden parachutes.
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Vorret
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Re: Brexit

Post by Vorret » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:48 am

I'm not sure why the UK thinks the EU will do anything to give them a hand in this, they have zero negotiating power
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His name makes me think of a small, burrowing rodent anyway.

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