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El Guapo
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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:57 am

Vorret wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:48 am
I'm not sure why the UK thinks the EU will do anything to give them a hand in this, they have zero negotiating power
I think it's largely driven by the lack of other options. Tory leadership is unwilling to do a second referendum on the issue, and Parliament won't sign off on the only real palatable deal on the table. So all they have left is asking the EU for more, and hoping for the best.

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:26 pm

And to be clear, the EU does NOT want a Brexit in any form. They have every motivation for making this as difficult as possible for the UK.

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:49 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:26 pm
And to be clear, the EU does NOT want a Brexit in any form. They have every motivation for making this as difficult as possible for the UK.
Plus if Brexit does happen, it being incredibly painful for the U.K. could at least be helpful as an example to other member states that might consider leaving.

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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:57 pm

The caveat here is Germany. There appears to be quite a bit of pressure from corporations in that country that are pushing hard for a more favorable deal for England. This in turn has lead the populist party to urge for it as well.
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Re: Brexit

Post by LordMortis » Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:14 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:49 pm
GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:26 pm
And to be clear, the EU does NOT want a Brexit in any form. They have every motivation for making this as difficult as possible for the UK.
Plus if Brexit does happen, it being incredibly painful for the U.K. could at least be helpful as an example to other member states that might consider leaving.
Or to the US and its constituency of people like minded with the Brexiters demands and worldviews....

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Re: Brexit

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:56 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:49 pm
GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:26 pm
And to be clear, the EU does NOT want a Brexit in any form. They have every motivation for making this as difficult as possible for the UK.
Plus if Brexit does happen, it being incredibly painful for the U.K. could at least be helpful as an example to other member states that might consider leaving.
Yes, a brexit sets a terrible precedent.

As for German corporations pushing for a favourable deal for England, that's reducing short term pain in exchange for increasing long term pain and possibly death for the EU. Good luck with that, everyone involved.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:26 pm


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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:07 am

Brexit is really starting to turn up the political pressure in the UK. Expect major crack ups in the coming weeks as the tension rises.

Just today:

*Reports emerge that British trade negotiators are scrambling to sign Free Trade agreements. In the process they sent letters and negotiating teams that immediately alienated China *and* Japan. This has lead to Britain making gunboat Diplomacy threats that they'd send an aircraft carrier group to disputed Chinese waters. Solid work there, chaps.

*Theresa May is still pretending that they are 're-negotiating' the backstop with the EU despite the EU insisting over and over nothing will change.

*Honda announces that they'll shutter their production in Swindon costing 3500 jobs by 2022 though the Swindon MP is saying it wasn't due to Brexit. Sure. No matter that Japan now has a free trade agreement with the EU. Feels mostly like balm for the chapped asses of his constituents who mostly voted to Leave.

*7 Labour MPs resign the party over Corbyn's handling of Brexit and reluctance to tackle antisemitism in Labour.

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Re: Brexit

Post by hepcat » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:09 am

Congratulations to the far right in Britain for single handedly destroying their own country in a mad rush to keep them damn foreigners out.
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:43 am

malchior wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:07 am
*7 Labour MPs resign the party over Corbyn's handling of Brexit and reluctance to tackle antisemitism in Labour.
One of the 7 then goes on national tv in the UK and makes a statement that is seen as racist against black people in the UK...calling them a 'funny tinge'. During a segment about racism in the UK!?! Yikes. At least our nations are united in our penchant for electing only the best people.
Last edited by malchior on Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit

Post by stessier » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:44 am

John Oliver this week was mainly about Brexit and the backstop plan. It was really interesting and helped me understand why the backstop plan is such a mess.
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:01 pm

I thought his segment was really good as a primer on the crisis within the time constraints he has. There is so much going on now that it is difficult to tackle it unless you've been following it closely. It seems smart that he narrowed in on key parts of the discussion. For example, he touched on Dover without going into the bonkers plans that they've been drawing up to deal with the ferry crossing issues. One example being that they tested staging trucks at a nearby airfield that has an access road that is only wide enough for one-way traffic.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:20 am

The pressure keeps on rising - 3 Tory MPs resign the Conservative whip.

Meanwhile the hardliners are still running a brinkmanship playbook effectively saying 'change the backstop' or 'no deal' to scare the EU.


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Re: Brexit

Post by stessier » Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:36 am

I really don't see how they can fix the backstop. It seems like the only way is to make the island the hard border - that is, everything gets searched onto and off of the island, but is free to move anywhere on it. Anything else is going to lead to people shooting at each other again.
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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:27 pm

stessier wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:36 am
I really don't see how they can fix the backstop. It seems like the only way is to make the island the hard border - that is, everything gets searched onto and off of the island, but is free to move anywhere on it. Anything else is going to lead to people shooting at each other again.
Right and the hardliners including the DUP MPs who represent Northern Ireland don't want any part of the UK in the EU regime so that option isn't politically viable. In the end, the people against Brexit pointed this out during the campaign. No one on the Leave side thought about how this would actually work once it was a reality. And in the end no matter what there likely will be a hard border and people shooting at it. With a big portion of financial austerity on top. Morons.

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:16 pm

malchior wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:27 pm
stessier wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:36 am
I really don't see how they can fix the backstop. It seems like the only way is to make the island the hard border - that is, everything gets searched onto and off of the island, but is free to move anywhere on it. Anything else is going to lead to people shooting at each other again.
Right and the hardliners including the DUP MPs who represent Northern Ireland don't want any part of the UK in the EU regime so that option isn't politically viable. In the end, the people against Brexit pointed this out during the campaign. No one on the Leave side thought about how this would actually work once it was a reality. And in the end no matter what there likely will be a hard border and people shooting at it. With a big portion of financial austerity on top. Morons.
I assume that this is like the Trump campaign where a goodly number of leaders didn't actually expect it to pass, and were just signing on as a political stunt, and then had to figure out WTF to do once it did.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:00 pm

Pretty much. All the people who egged it on are sitting on the sidelines saying how it won't be so bad. Boris Johnson / Nigel Farage in particular are really culpable and it won't shock me in 20 years when it comes out they were being run by the Kremlin.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:26 pm

May's newly updated deal goes down again - 391-242. A very significant loss for May again. What does this mean? A vote tomorrow about whether a 'No Deal' exit will be allowed. That'll probably be a no especially since May has declared it a 'free vote' meaning she will allow her party to vote their conscience. Then the next day a vote whether to apply to the EU to extend the date for Brexit. Assuming that happens the whole thing is in the unknown again. There are several dates coming up including European Parliamentary elections coming up that will pressure the timeline. Good grief.

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:44 pm

malchior wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:26 pm
May's newly updated deal goes down again - 391-242. A very significant loss for May again. What does this mean? A vote tomorrow about whether a 'No Deal' exit will be allowed. That'll probably be a no especially since May has declared it a 'free vote' meaning she will allow her party to vote their conscience. Then the next day a vote whether to apply to the EU to extend the date for Brexit. Assuming that happens the whole thing is in the unknown again. There are several dates coming up including European Parliamentary elections coming up that will pressure the timeline. Good grief.
*Can* the EU extend the deadline? I thought it was something where once Britain files the leave paperwork they leave as of two years from that date. I guess it must be an option insofar as people are talking about it, but I thought that was hard-written into the EU constitutional document.

Also, assuming that the hard Brexit vote fails, doesn't that increase the pressure for a new referendum? If at the end of the day it's going to be hard brexit or nothing?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:01 pm

Only if the EU agrees.
Could Brexit be delayed?

Possibly. The EU might agree to extend Article 50 if its leaders thought it would help smooth the process or if there was a chance the UK could end up staying in, possibly through another referendum, but it would only be by a few months. The UK's main opposition party, Labour, wants to force a general election and, after winning it, go back to Brussels to negotiate its version of Brexit. That would also require Brexit day being pushed back from 29 March. Labour has kept open the option of pushing for another referendum, which would also need an extension. Some government ministers have also been talking about asking the EU for an extension of a few weeks to get all the necessary legislation through Parliament

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Re: Brexit

Post by Holman » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:09 pm

malchior wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:00 pm
Pretty much. All the people who egged it on are sitting on the sidelines saying how it won't be so bad. Boris Johnson / Nigel Farage in particular are really culpable and it won't shock me in 20 years when it comes out they were being run by the Kremlin.
Farage was seen visiting Julian Assange during the campaign, and Steve Bannon and Cambridge Analytica were also involved. It's also known that Russians influenced social media during Brexit just as during the 2016 US election.

Yeah, Putin is in it.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:19 pm

Holman wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:09 pm
malchior wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:00 pm
Pretty much. All the people who egged it on are sitting on the sidelines saying how it won't be so bad. Boris Johnson / Nigel Farage in particular are really culpable and it won't shock me in 20 years when it comes out they were being run by the Kremlin.
Farage was seen visiting Julian Assange during the campaign, and Steve Bannon and Cambridge Analytica were also involved. It's also known that Russians influenced social media during Brexit just as during the 2016 US election.

Yeah, Putin is in it.
Oh, it's more than that. A U.K. billionaire who was a main funder of Brexit has contemporaneous business dealings with Russia from the time of Brexit, which sure look to be a way for Russia to funnel money to the Brexit campaign.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:36 pm

Should also mention: ‘IRA’ claims responsibility for London, Glasgow letter bombs
It claimed to have sent five devices, but police have so far only found four. An investigation has been launched into the letter bombs, which did not cause any injuries.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:28 pm

At this point you have to figure there is a really good chance that a 'no deal' crash out occurs. The default option even if they take 'no deal' off the table is still 'no deal'. About extending the Article 50 period, you have to think the EU may figure that the path forward is pretty hopeless.

The current picture? May is completely powerless. Corbyn's plan is a general election then re-negotiate which is insanity. The political situation there is completely dire. You have to wonder if the UK will still be here in 10 years. Every fringe actor is clamoring to take advantage of the clear political dysfunction to talk all sorts of previously crazy ideas like a re-united Ireland and slightly less crazy ones like an independent Scotland.

That said May is going to go down in history as a complete bungler who ran down the clock even in the face of crushing defeats within her own party. She faced a terrible choice between party and country and chose party and probably lost the country anyway. It really is amazing times we live in. It feels like we are seeing activity less dangerous but echoing the years before WW2 where political institutions were failing and bad actors were taking advantage of the situation.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:27 pm

WaPo
Parliament on Wednesday voted that Britain should not leave the European Union — ever — without a proper withdrawal, signaling that the lawmakers will also ask European leaders to delay Brexit.

Lawmakers voted 312 to 308 against a “no-deal Brexit.”

The vote was in many ways symbolic — taking the temperature of lawmakers, more than setting concrete policy. It is not legally binding and does not commit the E.U. to any action.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Kraken » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:57 pm

malchior wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:28 pm
It really is amazing times we live in. It feels like we are seeing activity less dangerous but echoing the years before WW2 where political institutions were failing and bad actors were taking advantage of the situation.
When a stable postwar order crumbles, one must wonder if we are in prewar period...and hope that the US can resume its role as an anchor of that order. With such rapid deterioration in the two years since we abdicated, I fear for the two years that we still have to get through.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:49 am

CNN live feed
UK Parliament will vote tonight at 5 p.m. GMT (1 p.m. ET) on whether to delay departure from the European Union.
1 hr 33 min ago

The 4 amendments selected

Speaker of the House John Bercow has selected the following amendments, which MPs will begin debating shortly.

Amendment (h) Seeks an extension to Article 50 to give enough time to legislate for and hold a second referendum on whether to leave the EU, with remain and parliament's preferred Brexit option on the ballot paper.

Amendment (i) Seeks to allow MPs to take control of the Brexit process.

Amendment (e) Notes that parliament has "decisively" rejected both Theresa May's deal and no deal and calls for a delay to Brexit "to provide parliamentary time for this House to find a majority for a different approach."

Amendment (j) Aims to stop a third meaningful vote on May's deal.
59 min ago

How does the Speaker choose which amendments will be voted on?

After Speaker of the House John Bercow's selection of an amendment calling for a second EU referendum caused an outcry from Brexiteers, the House of Commons released this video explaining the process. According to Bercow, this is what he considers in choosing an amendment for debate and, ultimately, vote: is it orderly, does it relate to the motion's purpose, does it have a range of support, will it help the House reach a conclusion that might be helpful in considering the motion?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:28 pm

BBC
Conservative Shailesh Vara tells the BBC News Channel that it is the "right thing" that MPs have voted against holding another referendum.
...
Labour MP Chris Bryant will not push his amendment, which said the government could not bring the same deal back in front of MPs for a third meaningful vote, to a vote.
...
MPs have voted against the Labour Party's frontbench amendment, which rejects the prime minister's deal, no-deal and calls for an extension of Article 50 to allow time to find a different approach, by 318 votes to 302 - a majority of 16.
...
MPs have backed the government's motion to seek to extend Article 50 and delay Brexit beyond 29 March by 412 votes to 202 - a majority of 210.

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:32 pm

House Speaker blocks 3rd vote on May's deal. Apparently May's only plan was to unsuccessfully ram the same deal over and over until people get desperate enough to pass it. Bercow apparently thought he should intervene. Funny how the reaction is that they immediately went into talking about playing some McConnell-like game to get around the ruling. The dumpster fire is burning hot in Parliament tonight.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Zarathud » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:31 pm

There is zero chance May gets a better deal and no other good ideas. The UK has always had a rough relationship with the EU. The sheer incompetence in managing Brexit is amazing.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Kraken » Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:05 pm

Putin must be amazed at the return he is getting on small investments. Absent a new referendum calling the whole thing off, I don't see how it ends well.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Defiant » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:48 am

The European Union is poised to tell Theresa May that she must hold a second referendum or soften Brexit in return for them granting a lengthy delay to Britain’s departure date.

The Times understands that the prime minister has been told by senior EU officials and other European leaders that conditions for an extension to the Article 50 exit process would include the option of a second vote on EU membership.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-w ... -z6td8nvd7

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:25 am

Oh...for real. The Tory blowhards will react really well to this. That probably means 'No Deal' odds are going up. Parliament isn't exactly nimble and the default is still No Deal. And the blowhards want 'No Deal'. It'll be easy, remember?

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Re: Brexit

Post by El Guapo » Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:19 am

malchior wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:25 am
Oh...for real. The Tory blowhards will react really well to this. That probably means 'No Deal' odds are going up. Parliament isn't exactly nimble and the default is still No Deal. And the blowhards want 'No Deal'. It'll be easy, remember?
Indeed. Probably still the right (or at least a very defensible) approach for Brussels. They could just give no questions asked extension of at least a couple months, but what are the odds that that's going to change anything? There is no plausible deal that could satisfy Brexit hardliners while conforming to reality. Basically by granting an extension they would be banking on the hope that either the Brexit hardliners cave and accept May's deal (or some very close variation of it), or that during the extension the pressure for a new referendum would become overwhelming. But I don't think either of those is likely at all, and there's a 95% chance that we would be in the exact same position a few months from now.

This raises the odds of a no deal Brexit, although I think that's been the most likely outcome for some time now. The additional tragedy of this is that I think the odds of Prime Minister Corbyn also went way up. The most likely scenario here is that No Deal Brexit happens, it's a shitshow in numerous ways, the popularity of the Conservatives plummets, and Labour emerges from the next election with at least a plurality of the House of Commons. Which has been what Corbyn has been trying to get for some time - not endorse Brexit, but not do anything to stop it, let the public blame the Conservatives, to the benefit of Labour, become Prime Minister and use the lack of EU restrictions to go hardcore socialist/communist.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Alefroth » Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:17 pm

Even if miraculously, a deal is made, what happens come April 1st March 30th? Have any preparations been made to start enforcing it?
Last edited by Alefroth on Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Jaymann » Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:23 pm

Alefroth wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:17 pm
Even if miraculously, a deal is made, what happens come April 1st?
They phone up the EU and say, "We were only fooling!"
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Re: Brexit

Post by Alefroth » Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:14 pm

Jaymann wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:23 pm
Alefroth wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:17 pm
Even if miraculously, a deal is made, what happens come April 1st?
They phone up the EU and say, "We were only fooling!"
:lol:

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Re: Brexit

Post by malchior » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:48 pm

Alefroth wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:17 pm
Even if miraculously, a deal is made, what happens come April 1st? Have any preparations been made to start enforcing it?
This is another side of this mess. The deal is a transition period only; only a portion of the laws needed have been worked through Parliament. This is an extreme mess right now and the British people have a lot of reason to be anxious. The business community is practically jumping out of its skin at the moment. Big businesses can eat the losses and won't be greatly affected but small businesses are pretty much at risk at the moment. On top, you have to imagine that credit freezes up pretty hard if the situation goes south which will only squeeze harder on the whole thing. They are risking a financial bomb going off in a systemically important financial center. That said the risk is probably low but that these clowns have gotten anywhere near here in this shape is pathetic. Failures at this scale are undermining Democracy broadly right at a time when we need it the most. :cry:

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Re: Brexit

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:13 pm

malchior wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:48 pm
Failures at this scale are undermining Democracy broadly right at a time when we need it the most. :cry:
And yet Democracy is exactly what put us in this place.

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Re: Brexit

Post by LordMortis » Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:22 pm

Big businesses can eat the losses and won't be greatly affected
You haven't foolishly invested in Ford before Brexit and the easy to win Trade Wars.

From 2016

https://mazarsledger.com/brexit-and-its ... nationals/

From this time last year

https://hbr.org/2018/05/how-multination ... for-brexit

The Day Brexit was announced, Ford anticipated a billion dollar a year downturn in profit for the company and their announcement tanked stocks which have never bounced back. They have not changed their forecast since.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/busin ... /39195329/

Multinationals are likely to cut bait for better waters or reduce exposure. It's quick revenue boon followed by being a talisman tax against corporate presence.

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