Coup Attempt in Turkey

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:20 pm

Reports are breaking right now about tanks, helicopters, and troops involved in military action in major cities in Turkey. The PM has reported that a coup attempt is (or was) underway.

Not many details yet.

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:23 pm

Of course, this could be a giant deal. Turkey is a NATO member, and has a long history of coups. Erdogan is an idiot, but military coups are not good.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:24 pm

Telegraph (UK) timeline

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:35 pm

reddit live thread

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:35 pm

PLW wrote:Of course, this could be a giant deal. Turkey is a NATO member, and has a long history of coups. Erdogan is an idiot, but military coups are not good.

Especially with their Russian tensions of late. This has some serious bad potential... much worse than any ISIS bs.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:42 pm

The military has issued a statement claiming that they have overthrown Erdogan and taken control.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:42 pm

Well it has been a banner year for "Europe" at this point. WTF.

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:45 pm

I've been spending too much time on Reddit live-threads lately.

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 4:49 pm

Hey that's all I wanted for Christmas! Darned Johnny Turk gets to have all the fun.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:01 pm

O'rly?

And this shortly after the prez mysteriously (to me anyway) started playing nice with everyone, after months and months of belligerent dictator-like behaviour.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:14 pm

PLW wrote:I've been spending too much time on Reddit live-threads lately.

I hear that.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:18 pm

PLW wrote:Of course, this could be a giant deal. Turkey is a NATO member, and has a long history of coups. Erdogan is an idiot, but military coups are not good.

Endogan is an authoritarian, imprisoning political opponents, seizing and closing newspapers, etc. I don't see him voluntarily relinquishing power. At what point should the military step in? Not to Godwinize the thread, but wouldn't we have been better off if the German army had thrown Hitler out of power, who was after all democratically elected? Wouldn't have we have praised that?

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:20 pm

IIRC, the Turkish military has traditionally been secular and pro-West.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:22 pm

ImLawBoy wrote:IIRC, the Turkish military has traditionally been secular and pro-West.

Especially back in the day when they really wanted to conquer the west.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:23 pm

Grifman wrote:Endogan is an authoritarian, imprisoning political opponents, seizing and closing newspapers, etc. I don't see him voluntarily relinquishing power. At what point should the military step in? Not to Godwinize the thread, but wouldn't we have been better off if the German army had thrown Hitler out of power, who was after all democratically elected? Wouldn't have we have praised that?

Maybe but with Syris/ISIS/Kurd issues and the general refugee crisis - this is a dangerous time for there to be instability at the door to Europe.

*Edit: Just saw a post in the Reddit live thread that troops loyal to Fethullah Gulen might be behind this. That actually could make a ton of sense. Hopefully whatever happens doesn't blow up into a full out civil war - that'd be *really bad* right now.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:30 pm

ImLawBoy wrote:IIRC, the Turkish military has traditionally been secular and pro-West.

Right. The military has traditionally been the guardian of Kemalism, Ataturk's founding ideology of Turkey as a Westernized state (in distinction from the Ottoman state that came before). The Turkish military has always been politically active, and the irony is that they do this in ways that seem profoundly un-Western even as they support secularism.

Kemalism doesn't automatically make the military the good guys, though. For all Erdogan's nastiness, this is still the overthrow of an elected civilian government by force.

I don't know enough about Turkey to think far beyond that point. I'll be reading. As pointed out, instability in a NATO country at the point where Europe meets the Middle East isn't a good thing.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:40 pm

Holman wrote:
ImLawBoy wrote:IIRC, the Turkish military has traditionally been secular and pro-West.
Right. The military has traditionally been the guardian of Kemalism, Ataturk's founding ideology of Turkey as a Westernized state (in distinction from the Ottoman state that came before). The Turkish military has always been politically active, and the irony is that they do this in ways that seem profoundly un-Western even as they support secularism.

Kemalism doesn't automatically make the military the good guys, though. For all Erdogan's nastiness, this is still the overthrow of an elected civilian government by force.

I don't know enough about Turkey to think far beyond that point. I'll be reading. As pointed out, instability in a NATO country at the point where Europe meets the Middle East isn't a good thing.

Agreed on both counts. I will be wish-casting that the pro-West secularists are who are in charge now, but still very scary at this moment in time.

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:47 pm

I feel like we have a bad history of cheering for non-democratic change in a direction that looks in "our" direction that, in the end, is terrible.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:50 pm

Turkey is a major oil transit hub, something like 3 million bbls/day, and is particular significant for Russian oil interests.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:59 pm

PLW wrote:I feel like we have a bad history of cheering for non-democratic change in a direction that looks in "our" direction that, in the end, is terrible.

Erdogan was already non-democratic. He is just a Turkish Putin. Voting doesn't matter if you don't have a free press, freedom of speech, and non-political courts.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 6:04 pm

He's done for, just "addressed" the nation via FaceTime on a journalist's phone shared on tv, LOL! Shows he has no way of getting on the air in a normal way. Supposedly his plane tried to land in Istanbul but was refused, supposedly he's seeking asylum in Germany.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 6:06 pm

Edit fail...

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 6:08 pm

I was fooled, but it was on his Twitter, so confused.

Spoiler:

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 6:17 pm

malchior wrote:*Edit: Just saw a post in the Reddit live thread that troops loyal to Fethullah Gulen might be behind this. That actually could make a ton of sense. Hopefully whatever happens doesn't blow up into a full out civil war - that'd be *really bad* right now.

From the Guardian:

A presidential source has said: “This is a coup attempt by the Gulen movement, at which several known Gulenists hinted in recent months. The perpetrators have violated the chain in command.”

I don't know much, but it appears that Gulen is a mostly moderate Islamic cleric interested in building his own power base in Turkey and with no connections to Jihadist radicals. His movement has recruited heavily in police and military circles.

Anyone know more about him or the politics of his movement? Is he as moderate as Wikipedia claims?

Weirdly, it seems that he lives in eastern Pennsylvania.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 6:50 pm

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:07 pm

NTV is saying a Turkish F16 just shot down a coup-used helicopter, and it's becoming increasingly clear that we have no idea if the coup will be successful. Given that they were not able to round up the leaders, I am wondering what are the impacts if the coup is a big fail?

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:13 pm

And with the military apparently split on the coup, it makes me wonder if this will be more bloody than past coups in Turkey.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:21 pm

Holman wrote:
malchior wrote:*Edit: Just saw a post in the Reddit live thread that troops loyal to Fethullah Gulen might be behind this. That actually could make a ton of sense. Hopefully whatever happens doesn't blow up into a full out civil war - that'd be *really bad* right now.
From the Guardian:

A presidential source has said: “This is a coup attempt by the Gulen movement, at which several known Gulenists hinted in recent months. The perpetrators have violated the chain in command.”
I don't know much, but it appears that Gulen is a mostly moderate Islamic cleric interested in building his own power base in Turkey and with no connections to Jihadist radicals. His movement has recruited heavily in police and military circles.

Anyone know more about him or the politics of his movement? Is he as moderate as Wikipedia claims?

Weirdly, it seems that he lives in eastern Pennsylvania.

He is in exile here. He got chased out after going after Erdogan for corruption - but - his people just put out a statement disavowing involvement and saying they were concerned by the coup. FWIW obviously.

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 8:28 pm

This is apparently not a very popular coup attempt. All the major opposition parties seem to be opposing it.

One of the best young quantitative sociologists who studies technology and politics, Zeynep Tufekci is Turkish and in Turkey right now. Her twitter feed has been fascinating.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 8:29 pm

Ok, looks like I was premature. Sounds like Erdogan just handed in Istanbul. Crowds seem to be turning out to support him, so the tide may be turning. The coup leaders should have chopped off the head of the snake, too late now.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 8:38 pm

PLW wrote:This is apparently not a very popular coup attempt. All the major opposition parties seem to be opposing it.

One of the best young quantitative sociologists who studies technology and politics, Zeynep Tufekci is Turkish and in Turkey right now. Her twitter feed has been fascinating.

That is an amazing twitter feed, thanks for sharing.

xwraith · Post by **xwraith** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 8:53 pm

Going by the news it sounds like the attempt is getting crushed.

Unfortunately this will just give Erdogan what he needs to crush civil liberties completely. If they really were trying to launch a coup to counter Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian habits they really needed to win, not some sort of half measure. If you are going to strike at the king....

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:00 pm

This is the parliament building being bombed apparently.

Last report is that all the MPs are okay.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:02 pm

AP via USN&WR

President Barack Obama on Friday urged all sides in Turkey to support the democratically elected government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan amid a military takeover of the key NATO ally.

In a statement issued after a meeting with his national security advisers, Obama also urged everyone in Turkey to show restraint and avoid violence or bloodshed.
...
In a separate statement, Kerry said the U.S. viewed the "very fluid situation" in Turkey with the "gravest concern."

Kerry said he had stressed in a telephone call with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu the United States' "absolute support" for Turkey's democratically elected, civilian government and democratic institutions. Kerry said he urged all parties to ensure the safety and well-being of diplomatic missions, personnel and civilians across Turkey.

Kerry also urged U.S. citizens in Turkey to stay indoors and to be in touch with family and friends.

The Defense Department also released a statement saying it is "taking appropriate steps to ensure the safety and security of our service members, civilians, their families and our facilities."

The Pentagon said the coup attempt had so far made no impact on the Incirlik air base, and said anti-Islamic State air operations from Incirlik are continuing.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:03 pm

This is what you get after 8 years of terrible foreign policy. I'm confident Trump's positions of isolationism and trade wars will solve these problems on foreign soil.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:36 pm

Ugh. Erdogan's been playing Kurds against ISIS against NATO against his own Islamists with nobody particularly happy with him, so his ouster would be...complicated. Reserving further comment until the dust settles.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:00 pm

Is Erdogan sufficiently Machiavellian to arrange a weak/faux coup as an excuse to consolidate power?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:37 pm

Max Peck wrote:Is Erdogan sufficiently Machiavellian to arrange a weak/faux coup as an excuse to consolidate power?

Yes but it is probably more likely this was real and he will ruthlessly use it that way.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:03 pm

malchior wrote:
Max Peck wrote:Is Erdogan sufficiently Machiavellian to arrange a weak/faux coup as an excuse to consolidate power?
Yes but it is probably more likely this was real and he will ruthlessly use it that way.

I don't think he's smart enough, although I'm sure he would have no (moral) problem with the concept. But who knows, maybe he is. He has certainly been pushing in that direction for awhile now. The belligerence with which he dealt with Putin and then recently apologized to him was odd enough for me to know something was up, but I'm not geo-politically savvy enough to understand what that means or what motivates it.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sat Jul 16, 2016 6:29 am

Gulen denies involvement:

In a statement early Saturday, Gulen denied any involvement in the coup.

“I condemn, in the strongest terms, the attempted military coup in Turkey,” he said, adding later: “Government should be won through a process of free and fair elections, not force … As someone who suffered under multiple military coups during the past five decades, it is especially insulting to be accused of having any link to such an attempt.”