Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

[rittchard]

Looking at the click ad /headline above the list, I thought it was going to be a what if nba free agents had to qualify for the debates table!

All the 0 poll people should just be kicked out now so that the second debate isn't a waste of time. Then to fill some spots, they can add LeBron, Anthony Davis, Kawhi and Paul George and debate about why Kawhi and PG hate LeBron and like f-ing up the Lakers.

[Defiant]

‘Trump’s Going to Get Re-elected, Isn’t He?’ By Thomas L. Friedman

Dear Democrats: This is not complicated! Just nominate a decent, sane person, one committed to reunifying the country and creating more good jobs, a person who can gain the support of the independents, moderate Republicans and suburban women who abandoned Donald Trump in the midterms and thus swung the House of Representatives to the Democrats and could do the same for the presidency. And that candidate can win!

But please, spare me the revolution! It can wait. Win the presidency, hold the House and narrow the spread in the Senate, and a lot of good things still can be accomplished. “No,” you say, “the left wants a revolution now!” O.K., I’ll give the left a revolution now: four more years of Donald Trump.

That will be a revolution.

Four years of Trump feeling validated in all the crazy stuff he’s done and said. Four years of Trump unburdened by the need to run for re-election and able to amplify his racism, make Ivanka secretary of state, appoint even more crackpots to his cabinet and likely get to name two right-wing Supreme Court justices under the age of 40.

Yes sir, that will be a revolution!

[Holman]

This is the clearest, most meaningful thing I've heard Buttigieg say.

[noxiousdog]

It's a really good point. Philosophically, I'm conservative. However, the Republican policies to achieve conservative outcomes have failed miserably.

[El Guapo]

It's a really good point. Philosophically, I'm conservative. However, the Republican policies to achieve conservative outcomes have failed miserably.

It really is. Just look at Kansas under Brownback, for one.

In many ways the rot in the GOP is primarily the result of the party establishment becoming dominated by people who believe that regressive tax cuts should be the primary policy goal for the party. And because tax cuts oriented towards wealthy people and corporations are unpopular, it necessitates a variety of things: (1) repeated predictions that regressive tax cuts will not increase the deficit because of job creation benefits, and that progressive tax hikes will not shrink it - predictions that have repeatedly been proven false; (2) racially-tinged populism as a way to get non-rich people on board with the party; and (3) increasing hostility towards democracy and mass voting.

[LordMortis]

It's a really good point. Philosophically, I'm conservative. However, the Republican policies to achieve conservative outcomes have failed miserably.

I'd like to believe there is still a bit conservative in me but it's getting hard to find and i think that may be defense mechanism against exactly how "conservative" outputs are happening. I want government to start locally and for larger control of local government. I want more fiscally responsible spending. I don't want government overreach in to personal decisions or thought policing. Ideally, our version of free market would reduce the need for social programs not expand it. We've lost on every account and I had to tap out a while ago.

[Defiant]

Blair Garner, host of a nationally syndicated radio program, taped an interview with 2020 Democratic candidate Pete Buttigieg in Nashville last week.

But if you want to hear the interview, you'll have to look up Garner's personal SoundCloud page. Garner said he was told by someone at his employer, Cumulus Media, that he "couldn't air it" on broadcast.

"This is an incredible act of cowardice for a company whose slogan is 'Where Every Voice Matters,'" said Kurt Bardella, the publisher of the daily country music email newsletter "The Morning Hangover." He was in the room for Garner's interview with Buttigieg.

Cumulus, however, says it spiked the interview because of federal rules that mandate that radio stations provide equal time to political candidates.

But this explanation doesn't add up, according to experts who have studied the equal time rules.

Cumulus' rationale "is flat wrong," media researcher and communications professor Dylan McLemore tweeted Monday. "The equal time rule is indeed 'widely understood' ... to NOT include 'bonafide news interviews,' even by entertainment hosts like Garner. Cumulus knows this. So what's the real reason?"

Pete Buttigieg's interview on country radio was silenced

[msteelers]

I can't speak to owners of that radio station, but the owners at the station I work at are terrified of the equal times law. They fret about it constantly during election years. It makes it very difficult to do any type of interview.

Edit: The issue I see is with the idea that this is a news interview. I don't think the interview would be covered by that. For instance, I interview our sheriff every week. During election season, I can keep doing that interview because we are discussing relevant news items from that week (a car burglary, home invasion, the owner of the Patriots getting wrapped up in a human trafficking ring, etc.). However, we have to avoid having him say anything like "this is why you need to reelect me as sheriff..." or else we get in trouble with the equal time rule.

The problem is that it was Buttigieg's campaign that reached out. That right there makes this a campaign function, not a news function.

And from a management perspective, if you air the interview you now open yourself up to similar interviews from a huge Democratic field. And your audience is likely either leaning conservative, or at the very least want to avoid politics and listen to music. So now a single interview turns into potentially a dozen or more interviews that you don't want to actually do, and a pissed off audience. I can see why management would want to avoid that.

[Jaymann]

Just because they are afraid of the equal time law doesn't mean they are not homophobic.

[Kraken]

Buttigieg gave a good interview to Military Times.

[Defiant]

[Isgrimnur]

As the only African American Republican in the House of Representatives and as a Congressman who represents a 71% Latino district, I’ve taken a conservative message to places that don’t often hear it. Folks in these communities believe in order to solve problems we should empower people not the government, help families move up the economic ladder through free markets not socialism and achieve and maintain peace by being nice with nice guys and tough with tough guys. These Republican ideals resonate with people who don’t think they identify with the Republican Party. Every American should feel they have a home in our party.

[Defiant]

[pr0ner]

That's really too bad.

[malchior]

That retirement is interesting because Hurd was thought to be the only R in a position to keep that seat with the GOP.

[pr0ner]

That retirement is interesting because Hurd was thought to be the only R in a position to keep that seat with the GOP.

I don't think that's the only reason it's interesting. But you make a good point.

[El Guapo]

That retirement is interesting because Hurd was thought to be the only R in a position to keep that seat with the GOP.

I don't think that's the only reason it's interesting. But you make a good point.

There's no doubt that it's bad news for the GOP. Also because this sort of thing can create a stampede effect - other Republicans considering retirement (or considering challenging Democrats in purple districts) are likely to factor this in, insofar as it suggests that Hurd is pessimistic about 2020 in the House, and because retirements like Hurd lower the chances of a GOP majority, which make GOP House seats less attractive.

[Defiant]

So far, 3 Democrats and 10 Republicans who are planning to retire (it's not fun being in the minority in the House, and probably not much fun having to deal with Trump leading your party).

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2019/Hous ... ments.html

Not sure how it compares to this point in the cycle of previous elections.

[NickAragua]

Now if only their senate guys would start retiring too. Or dying of old-age-related problems, I'm not picky.

[El Guapo]

John Hickenlooper Drops Out Of 2020 Presidential Race One Assumes

DENVER—Presumably thanking his supporters and vowing to keep up his fight for the well-being of everyday Americans, former Colorado governor John Hickenlooper has dropped out of the 2020 presidential race, one naturally assumes. Highly placed sources have confirmed that it is only natural to imagine that Hickenlooper, who launched his campaign for the Democratic nomination back in what most are pretty sure was March, has probably dropped out, as he did not stand a reasonable chance of winning in the first place. While no further inquiry into the status of Hickenlooper’s campaign is forthcoming or realistically necessary, one may safely assume that this headline, if not true now, cannot ultimately be false, and will in fact be accurate in every major particular within the next week. Therefore, the Onion Editorial Board has concluded that it is only logical to pursue more pressing journalistic endeavors and acknowledge the inevitable demise of this quixotic campaign. This newspaper will dutifully update this article to reflect the day of the week and city in which Hickenlooper will ultimately stand before the cameras, surrounded by his wanly smiling family, and pledge his meager support to whoever the eventual Democratic Party nominee might be. As we shall not be following up on Hickenlooper’s further and presumptively fruitless activities, we urge citizens to pursue any other avenue of information they deem necessary, which from a practical perspective is, of course, none. An informed populace is crucial to democracy, so feel free to investigate yourself, but do not attempt to contact this newspaper or its employees, as we do not care.

[Isgrimnur]

Ouch.

[Defiant]

So far, 3 Democrats and 10 Republicans who are planning to retire (it's not fun being in the minority in the House, and probably not much fun having to deal with Trump leading your party).

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2019/Hous ... ments.html

Not sure how it compares to this point in the cycle of previous elections.

Up to 12 now.

Rep. Kenny Marchant, an eighth-term Texas Republican who represents Dallas suburbs, announced his retirement Monday. He becomes the 12th GOP House member to either say they will resign or not seek reelection since the current Congress started in January.

link

According to a 538 podcast, the rate is just under the rate it was in the last midterm at this point in the cycle, which was a really bad year for Republicans. And of course, add in that they're starting with a lower number of incumbents this time...

[Pyperkub]

Returning to my ground game question for Fireball a couple of months ago:

Kamala Harris hired a dream team of operatives. Joe Biden has solid establishment support. Bernie Sanders heads a volunteer army. And Julián Castro is seen as a “sleeper.”

But of the two dozen Democrats running for president, none matches Elizabeth Warren when it comes to the size of her campaign operation, the crowds at her rallies and the buzz among activists and operatives in Nevada.

“Elizabeth Warren just has a gigantic campaign,” said Laura Martin, executive director of the social justice organization Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada. “There are counties all over rural areas where some campaigns are just doing tours, but she has staff there. And that was a strategy President Obama had in 2008 when he won Nevada.”

Another Democratic operative put it more bluntly: “Warren has built a monster.”

Among 17 Democratic strategists, activists and experts interviewed by POLITICO for this story, Warren’s campaign was mentioned most often as the most impressive of the field, followed by Harris'.

This is bad news if Biden wins the nod - a bad ground game and taking things for granted is what cost Clinton (in both 2008 Primaries and 2016 General), IMHO

[hepcat]

I think there was more to it than just that for Hillary. She was deeply unpopular with large segments of the country going into the primaries even.

[Pyperkub]

I think there was more to it than just that for Hillary. She was deeply unpopular with large segments of the country going into the primaries even.

True, but a huge part of that was the propaganda attacks on her for 25+ years. A good ground game is how you try to fix that. She utterly failed in her ground game in Wisconsin, PA, Michigan, etc. in 2016.

[Kraken]

Returning to my ground game question for Fireball a couple of months ago:

Kamala Harris hired a dream team of operatives. Joe Biden has solid establishment support. Bernie Sanders heads a volunteer army. And Julián Castro is seen as a “sleeper.”

But of the two dozen Democrats running for president, none matches Elizabeth Warren when it comes to the size of her campaign operation, the crowds at her rallies and the buzz among activists and operatives in Nevada.

“Elizabeth Warren just has a gigantic campaign,” said Laura Martin, executive director of the social justice organization Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada. “There are counties all over rural areas where some campaigns are just doing tours, but she has staff there. And that was a strategy President Obama had in 2008 when he won Nevada.”

Another Democratic operative put it more bluntly: “Warren has built a monster.”

Among 17 Democratic strategists, activists and experts interviewed by POLITICO for this story, Warren’s campaign was mentioned most often as the most impressive of the field, followed by Harris'.

This is bad news if Biden wins the nod - a bad ground game and taking things for granted is what cost Clinton (in both 2008 Primaries and 2016 General), IMHO

If the Dems do finally anoint Biden (please don't), I'm confident that Warren will throw her support behind him. She's a genuine country-first type.

[Pyperkub]

Returning to my ground game question for Fireball a couple of months ago:

Kamala Harris hired a dream team of operatives. Joe Biden has solid establishment support. Bernie Sanders heads a volunteer army. And Julián Castro is seen as a “sleeper.”

But of the two dozen Democrats running for president, none matches Elizabeth Warren when it comes to the size of her campaign operation, the crowds at her rallies and the buzz among activists and operatives in Nevada.

“Elizabeth Warren just has a gigantic campaign,” said Laura Martin, executive director of the social justice organization Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada. “There are counties all over rural areas where some campaigns are just doing tours, but she has staff there. And that was a strategy President Obama had in 2008 when he won Nevada.”

Another Democratic operative put it more bluntly: “Warren has built a monster.”

Among 17 Democratic strategists, activists and experts interviewed by POLITICO for this story, Warren’s campaign was mentioned most often as the most impressive of the field, followed by Harris'.

This is bad news if Biden wins the nod - a bad ground game and taking things for granted is what cost Clinton (in both 2008 Primaries and 2016 General), IMHO

If the Dems do finally anoint Biden (please don't), I'm confident that Warren will throw her support behind him. She's a genuine country-first type.

Agreed, though her volunteers may not feel motivated. Given Biden's campaign thus far, it seems to take a LOT for granted, however.

[Holman]

Of course it's too early to tell, but right now it seems like a Biden/Warren ticket would likely win both the party and the country.

And it would probably mean Warren 2024 rather than Warren 2028 (though, I guess, that too).

[Kraken]

Age would be an issue, and race might be, too. But they'd be running against an old white racist, so not a showstopper.

[em2nought]

Bernie Sanders heads a volunteer army.

That's lucky, as it's not like Bernie would pay them $15.00 an hour anyway. https://thefederalist.com/2019/07/19/be ... imum-wage/

[hepcat]

Those complaining are salaried, not hourly. They're complaining because the hours they work bring their hourly equivalent to 13 dollars. So it's kind of indigenous to insinuate that Bernie is running a "do what I say, not what I do" type workplace in the context of minimum wage campaign promises. Especially considering the platinum level health insurance and other benefits his office gives them.

Let's once again get the full story, shall we?

[Jaymann]

Those complaining are salaried, not hourly. They're complaining because the hours they work bring their hourly equivalent to 13 dollars. So it's kind of indigenous to insinuate that Bernie is running a "do what I say, not what I do" type workplace in the context of minimum wage campaign promises. Especially considering the platinum level health insurance and other benefits his office gives them.

Let's once again get the full story, shall we?

I don't think he needs to be native to make that argument. It is a bit disingenuous though.

[hepcat]

Those complaining are salaried, not hourly. They're complaining because the hours they work bring their hourly equivalent to 13 dollars. So it's kind of indigenous to insinuate that Bernie is running a "do what I say, not what I do" type workplace in the context of minimum wage campaign promises. Especially considering the platinum level health insurance and other benefits his office gives them.

Let's once again get the full story, shall we?

I don't think he needs to be native to make that argument. It is a bit disingenuous though.

Damn you auto correct, damn you to hell!!!

[em2nought]

Those complaining are salaried, not hourly. They're complaining because the hours they work bring their hourly equivalent to 13 dollars. So it's kind of indigenous to insinuate that Bernie is running a "do what I say, not what I do" type workplace in the context of minimum wage campaign promises. Especially considering the platinum level health insurance and other benefits his office gives them.

Let's once again get the full story, shall we?

I don't think he needs to be native to make that argument. It is a bit disingenuous though.

Damn you auto correct, damn you to hell!!!

I'm probably more indigenous than Fauxcahontas!

[hepcat]

I was going to mention Trump in my reply to you, but I'm not sure which country he's claiming his family is from this week.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Can Biden please just go away?

Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign says he misspoke when he told a group of Hispanic and Asian voters in Iowa on Thursday that "poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids" before he attempted to correct himself.

It's just one gaff after another with him. And if the debates have shown anything, it's that he has clearly lost a step. As terrible as Trump is as a debater, I no longer believe that Biden will be able to effectively counter any attacks by Trump.

[pr0ner]

Can Biden please just go away?

Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign says he misspoke when he told a group of Hispanic and Asian voters in Iowa on Thursday that "poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids" before he attempted to correct himself.

It's just one gaff after another with him. And if the debates have shown anything, it's that he has clearly lost a step. As terrible as Trump is as a debater, I no longer believe that Biden will be able to effectively counter any attacks by Trump.

As long as Biden leads in the polls, he's not going anywhere.

[malchior]

Can Biden please just go away?

Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign says he misspoke when he told a group of Hispanic and Asian voters in Iowa on Thursday that "poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids" before he attempted to correct himself.

It's just one gaff after another with him. And if the debates have shown anything, it's that he has clearly lost a step. As terrible as Trump is as a debater, I no longer believe that Biden will be able to effectively counter any attacks by Trump.

In his prime he was a gaffe machine. Now it is ridiculous. In the world of Trump this might not be that big a deal but the Democrats and the nation desperately need a competent war chief. This is a war for the soul of the nation. Hate to say it but Joe is not that person. That said, I still expect the Democrats to nominate him at this point.

[Default]

I think there was more to it than just that for Hillary. She was deeply unpopular with large segments of the country going into the primaries even.

True, but a huge part of that was the propaganda attacks on her for 25+ years. A good ground game is how you try to fix that. She utterly failed in her ground game in Wisconsin, PA, Michigan, etc. in 2016.

As a letter carrier, I've been swimming in the information stream for 29 years. While propaganda has moved online, I have seen the bullshit. The gop did a grand job slandering Hillary.

[Daehawk]

I remember a few years ago seeing Biden on a car talk Jay Leno. He seemed normal. But maybe Im alone these days but he seems old. He looks old. he acts old. Sorta like his mental edge is gone to age. I know he really is old but just a few years ago he seemed fine. Now not so much. I think it every time I see him on these debates and news.