Biden would have walked away with it this year, no question. But the extent to which he represents the old Clinton/centrist establishment will either be his strength or his weakness. It's too early to know if Americans will want another Change candidate or a return to the Good Old Days of the Obama administration. Even though that's going to look better and better as the Trump administration wears on, I think the Dems will need to offer something better.El Guapo wrote:I love Biden, so I would vote for him in a heartbeat. His age would definitely be an issue, though. On the other hand, Obama's already popular, and is likely to get more popular as he gets more removed from day-to-day politics and partisanship. Biden would probably get a big boost from Obama nostalgia.
We'll see who else emerges. Of course, barring some bizarre turn of events, it's not like I'm going to seriously consider anyone but the democratic nominee in the general, unless there is a sudden change in favor of pro-third party voting rules, or unless the democrats nominate the exhumed corpse of Fidel Castro.
Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!
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- Kraken
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
- Ralph-Wiggum
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
My impression was that he wanted to run and perhaps had been planning to run until the death of his son. I think that played a larger part in his decision than the idea of facing Hillary.Smoove_B wrote:Maybe I'm a cynical bastard, but I took this admission as proof that he wanted to run in 2016 but the establishment already decided on Hillary.Jeff V wrote:I'm surprised that Biden is throwing his hat in the ring already. Hasn't he learned that nothing good comes of giving the Republicans an entire 4 years to mount a smear campaign?
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
It's going to be a fine line that I have no idea how to draw between the growing desire of the people to reject the establishment with the growing need to find and embrace a form of stability. Like trying to find away to get a positive charge to attract a positive charge and make them stick. At least that what they'll need if they want to have more than a term and grow their presence in Congress.Kraken wrote:I think the Dems will need to offer something better.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
I don't think Biden would have walked away with it this year, automatically. He and Clinton would've been running in the same lane - centrist, sensible reform-minded establishment liberals. I think it's plausible that he would've taken a chunk of Clinton's support and given Sanders a plausible route to victory in the primary.Kraken wrote:Biden would have walked away with it this year, no question. But the extent to which he represents the old Clinton/centrist establishment will either be his strength or his weakness. It's too early to know if Americans will want another Change candidate or a return to the Good Old Days of the Obama administration. Even though that's going to look better and better as the Trump administration wears on, I think the Dems will need to offer something better.El Guapo wrote:I love Biden, so I would vote for him in a heartbeat. His age would definitely be an issue, though. On the other hand, Obama's already popular, and is likely to get more popular as he gets more removed from day-to-day politics and partisanship. Biden would probably get a big boost from Obama nostalgia.
We'll see who else emerges. Of course, barring some bizarre turn of events, it's not like I'm going to seriously consider anyone but the democratic nominee in the general, unless there is a sudden change in favor of pro-third party voting rules, or unless the democrats nominate the exhumed corpse of Fidel Castro.
I think Biden, assuming he runs, will get a big boost from Obama nostalgia. Whether that will be enough to overcome the candidate of the Sanders wing, who knows.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Biden is the center of Hillary old guard and Bernie radicals. Without stupid e-mail problems, Biden could have spent time talking about economic issues and kept Wisconsin/Michigan blue.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
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“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Yeah, I would assume that just removing the presence of an FBI investigation would be worth 100,000 or so votes between MI, PA, and WI. At the same time, though, who knows. If nothing else, Trump has proven himself to be tremendous at media management. If Biden had entered the race, and especially when and if he established himself as the leader, the GOP House immediately would have started cranking up the spurious investigation machine (maybe run the IRS 'scandal' into the ground some more), and Trump would've gone to work on Biden.Zarathud wrote:Biden is the center of Hillary old guard and Bernie radicals. Without stupid e-mail problems, Biden could have spent time talking about economic issues and kept Wisconsin/Michigan blue.
I sort of assume that Biden would have won, but it's not really possible to say without seeing the effect of a year of campaigning on Biden's image.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
I can't speak for broader terms but I have plenty of family who resented the entire election for being forced to vote for Trump because Clinton and they really do seem to be indicative a larger working class elderly white folks. I don't doubt this was somewhere between common and ubiquitous attitude among 65+ year olds in Michigan. I can't speculate for for WI or PA but here they resent Clinton even more for forcing their hands on something they didn't want to do. What's worse is that this resentment rubs off on the party for a state, as a whole, that has voted federally blue for the previous 24 years. The Clinton machine was really blind to how scorched earth this campaign has been... again at least in Michigan. I can only assume she wrote this state off after losing to Sanders, and probably rightfully so. Only like I said, the elderly are still transferring their disapproval of Trump to Clinton and therefore the democrats who ran her. Biden would have at least swung 16 more electoral votes.El Guapo wrote:Yeah, I would assume that just removing the presence of an FBI investigation would be worth 100,000 or so votes between MI, PA, and WI. At the same time, though, who knows. If nothing else, Trump has proven himself to be tremendous at media management. If Biden had entered the race, and especially when and if he established himself as the leader, the GOP House immediately would have started cranking up the spurious investigation machine (maybe run the IRS 'scandal' into the ground some more), and Trump would've gone to work on Biden.Zarathud wrote:Biden is the center of Hillary old guard and Bernie radicals. Without stupid e-mail problems, Biden could have spent time talking about economic issues and kept Wisconsin/Michigan blue.
I sort of assume that Biden would have won, but it's not really possible to say without seeing the effect of a year of campaigning on Biden's image.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
The thing is that, regardless of Clinton's faults, it's objectively insane to think of Trump as a better option than Clinton (who was essentially a conventional politician). Given that Trump's media savvy, combined with the GOP congressional investigatory machine, was able to turn Trump and Clinton into equally bad options, I think it's reasonably likely that they would have been able to do a lot of damage to anyone that the democrats nominated (whether Biden, Sanders, or other).LordMortis wrote:I can't speak for broader terms but I have plenty of family who resented the entire election for being forced to vote for Trump because Clinton and they really do seem to be indicative a larger working class elderly white folks. I don't doubt this was somewhere between common and ubiquitous attitude among 65+ year olds in Michigan. I can't speculate for for WI or PA but here they resent Clinton even more for forcing their hands on something they didn't want to do. What's worse is that this resentment rubs off on the party for a state, as a whole, that has voted federally blue for the previous 24 years. The Clinton machine was really blind to how scorched earth this campaign has been... again at least in Michigan. I can only assume she wrote this state off after losing to Sanders, and probably rightfully so. Only like I said, the elderly are still transferring their disapproval of Trump to Clinton and therefore the democrats who ran her. Biden would have at least swung 16 more electoral votes.El Guapo wrote:Yeah, I would assume that just removing the presence of an FBI investigation would be worth 100,000 or so votes between MI, PA, and WI. At the same time, though, who knows. If nothing else, Trump has proven himself to be tremendous at media management. If Biden had entered the race, and especially when and if he established himself as the leader, the GOP House immediately would have started cranking up the spurious investigation machine (maybe run the IRS 'scandal' into the ground some more), and Trump would've gone to work on Biden.Zarathud wrote:Biden is the center of Hillary old guard and Bernie radicals. Without stupid e-mail problems, Biden could have spent time talking about economic issues and kept Wisconsin/Michigan blue.
I sort of assume that Biden would have won, but it's not really possible to say without seeing the effect of a year of campaigning on Biden's image.
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- Ralph-Wiggum
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Isn't Biden loved in PA as well? I highly doubt Trump wins that state if Biden is the candidate.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
He grew up in Scranton. I suppose I don't know how he's viewed there now, though I would guess that would've helped. Though Trump still wins without PA given MI and WI.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Isn't Biden loved in PA as well? I highly doubt Trump wins that state if Biden is the candidate.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
IMO, Biden would have appealed to white working class voters, far more than Clinton or Sanders, and would have probably easily won the close Rust Belt states. Additionally, his charisma/charm/style is similar to Trump's.
I'm not sure how he would have done with minorities, though given that Delaware does have a high percentage of African Americans, and about typical percentages for Hispanics and Asians I'm guessing he would have some appeal to them and would do well, if perhaps not as well as Clinton.
Of course, the Bernie or Bust folks would lambaste him for his ties to the banking industry.
I'm not sure how he would have done with minorities, though given that Delaware does have a high percentage of African Americans, and about typical percentages for Hispanics and Asians I'm guessing he would have some appeal to them and would do well, if perhaps not as well as Clinton.
Of course, the Bernie or Bust folks would lambaste him for his ties to the banking industry.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Hillary spent 8 years as the heir apparent after her efforts unifying the party after the 2008 primary. In retrospect, it would have been better to keep her on ice for 8 years -- while being Secretary of State certainly enhanced her qualifications, it also opened her up to attacks (many illegitimately so) that wore her down in the end.LordMortis wrote:That's the immediate subtext that slapped me in the face, but that's probably more me reading frustration at the election than it is reality.Smoove_B wrote:Maybe I'm a cynical bastard, but I took this admission as proof that he wanted to run in 2016 but the establishment already decided on Hillary.
The second subtext I took is that Clinton will finally go gracefully into that night, and again that's more me reading hope than it has any link to reality.
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- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Sort of, but not really. It's not like the GOP restricted themselves to fact-based attacks. Like, they got a ton of mileage out of Benghazi and the e-mail server, when there was pretty much nothing to either of those. Presumably Clinton would have been doing *something* for those eight years, so I doubt it would have been hard to dredge up innuendo and investigations (and corresponding negative media coverage) about whatever Clinton would have done in the alternative.Jeff V wrote:Hillary spent 8 years as the heir apparent after her efforts unifying the party after the 2008 primary. In retrospect, it would have been better to keep her on ice for 8 years -- while being Secretary of State certainly enhanced her qualifications, it also opened her up to attacks (many illegitimately so) that wore her down in the end.LordMortis wrote:That's the immediate subtext that slapped me in the face, but that's probably more me reading frustration at the election than it is reality.Smoove_B wrote:Maybe I'm a cynical bastard, but I took this admission as proof that he wanted to run in 2016 but the establishment already decided on Hillary.
The second subtext I took is that Clinton will finally go gracefully into that night, and again that's more me reading hope than it has any link to reality.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
This is probably the story of the year. The media will amplify almost any message as long as it is "newsworthy". In this case, only after the damage was done was there any sort of hand wringing about fake news or calling the alt-right white hate. They failed us miserably. And I have seen many saying they did a great job and the voters didn't listen. But that is bullshit - all you have to do is pull any news article about a related-subject and see all that fake garbage spewed back at you. A large part of the media world in concert with Trump did immense damage to our nation and I don't think they learned their lesson. Any idea that Hillary sitting on the side lines would have mattered much is dubious - any candidate going forward is going to face a withering bullshit attack. Time will tell if that is true but I have doubts it'll improve.El Guapo wrote:Sort of, but not really. It's not like the GOP restricted themselves to fact-based attacks. Like, they got a ton of mileage out of Benghazi and the e-mail server, when there was pretty much nothing to either of those.
Last edited by malchior on Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- NickAragua
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
True, but they'd been pounding those nails into the wood for a long time, even before the previous presidential campaign. Probably because there was (for some reason) a perception that she would try to run for president after Obama did his time. Seems like the entire republican propaganda machine was fine-tuned to pound on Clinton's weaknesses. Biden never wound up in the news cycle as an unsympathetic figure, so a SURPRISE BIDEN! nomination would have been an acceptable response to the SURPRISE TRUMP! nomination that happened in the republican primary. Imagine two guys fist fighting, and one keeps telegraphing a right hook, and the other keeps telegraphing that he's going to block it. Then the first guy throws the right hook anyway and is so surprised when the second guy blocks it and kicks him in the nards to boot.El Guapo wrote:Sort of, but not really. It's not like the GOP restricted themselves to fact-based attacks. Like, they got a ton of mileage out of Benghazi and the e-mail server, when there was pretty much nothing to either of those. Presumably Clinton would have been doing *something* for those eight years, so I doubt it would have been hard to dredge up innuendo and investigations (and corresponding negative media coverage) about whatever Clinton would have done in the alternative.Jeff V wrote:Hillary spent 8 years as the heir apparent after her efforts unifying the party after the 2008 primary. In retrospect, it would have been better to keep her on ice for 8 years -- while being Secretary of State certainly enhanced her qualifications, it also opened her up to attacks (many illegitimately so) that wore her down in the end.LordMortis wrote:That's the immediate subtext that slapped me in the face, but that's probably more me reading frustration at the election than it is reality.Smoove_B wrote:Maybe I'm a cynical bastard, but I took this admission as proof that he wanted to run in 2016 but the establishment already decided on Hillary.
The second subtext I took is that Clinton will finally go gracefully into that night, and again that's more me reading hope than it has any link to reality.
Maybe Biden is "declaring" ahead of time so that the propaganda machine spends the next two years hitting the wrong punching bag. Then afterwards he'll be like "SIKE BITCHES IM OUT" and the real candidates will come out. I have no idea who needs to run in 2020. But whoever it is, they need to keep their goddamned head down until the next primary season starts, and the goddamned DNC better stay out of the way when they do run. Or at least keep their email servers more secure. Maybe stop using "Microsoft Exchange 1997" and upgrade to the 2000 version to fix up those Y2K bugs, and get their personnel some basic computer security training. "password" isn't a good password and I mean, I get it, the BonziBuddy is cute, but he's probably stealing your credentials.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
You can't rely on the party for secured servers. That's something the candidates ought to handle themselves.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
It's hard to tell whether Biden was seriously considering running this time around (I think he was, prior to his son's sudden death, which obviously no one could have predicted). It wouldn't have been THAT much of a surprise.NickAragua wrote: True, but they'd been pounding those nails into the wood for a long time, even before the previous presidential campaign. Probably because there was (for some reason) a perception that she would try to run for president after Obama did his time. Seems like the entire republican propaganda machine was fine-tuned to pound on Clinton's weaknesses. Biden never wound up in the news cycle as an unsympathetic figure, so a SURPRISE BIDEN! nomination would have been an acceptable response to the SURPRISE TRUMP! nomination that happened in the republican primary. Imagine two guys fist fighting, and one keeps telegraphing a right hook, and the other keeps telegraphing that he's going to block it. Then the first guy throws the right hook anyway and is so surprised when the second guy blocks it and kicks him in the nards to boot.
Maybe Biden is "declaring" ahead of time so that the propaganda machine spends the next two years hitting the wrong punching bag. Then afterwards he'll be like "SIKE BITCHES IM OUT" and the real candidates will come out. I have no idea who needs to run in 2020. But whoever it is, they need to keep their goddamned head down until the next primary season starts, and the goddamned DNC better stay out of the way when they do run. Or at least keep their email servers more secure. Maybe stop using "Microsoft Exchange 1997" and upgrade to the 2000 version to fix up those Y2K bugs, and get their personnel some basic computer security training. "password" isn't a good password and I mean, I get it, the BonziBuddy is cute, but he's probably stealing your credentials.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Silver's predicting 2020:
I dunno, there's going to be survivors in most states, I would think. Most of them in more rural areas, so that would probably guarantee a Republican government.
I dunno, there's going to be survivors in most states, I would think. Most of them in more rural areas, so that would probably guarantee a Republican government.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Surely, Nate is aware that being burned to a crisp won't affect voter turnout in Illinois all that much. Our 20 EVs are more than those other three states combined!
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Voxmalchior wrote:I have personally seen him speak twice - he approaches Obama-level good at a podium and he is whip smart but I do agree that he can appear inauthentic. Especially on tv.Captain Caveman wrote:I want to like him. But I've always found there to be something schmoozy, forced, and inauthentic about Booker.malchior wrote:I think anyone from NJ is tainted and his tenure as mayor of Newark is shaky at best.Isgrimnur wrote:Cory Booker 2020.
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker was trying to walk to the men’s bathroom Tuesday afternoon when about 30 immigration activists surrounded him to offer their thanks. Booker had just vowed to testify against Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, a longtime immigration hard-liner, at the attorney general nominee’s confirmation hearing — something no senator had ever done to a colleague.
...
But by Thursday, the story about Booker had flipped. The New Jersey senator and 12 other Senate Democrats had joined the bulk of the Republican caucus to kill a proposal aimed at lowering prescription drug prices. What made Booker’s vote all the more anguishing for the left is that the proposal won the backing of 13 Republican senators, and had a real chance of passing.
...
Booker has long faced criticism on the left for cultivating the elite financial ties that much of the Bernie Sanders wing despises. And while it’s true that his vote may have had more to do with the concentration of the pharmaceutical industry in his home state, it’s also only served to confirm some progressives’ suspicions that he’s too closely allied with corporate interests in the Democratic Party.
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The Sanders-Klobuchar proposal would have allowed Americans to buy prescription drugs from Canada, where they are significantly cheaper.
...
As Dylan Matthews explained at the Washington Post in 2013, the kind of amendment put forward by Sanders and Klobuchar was mostly symbolic — it would not have actually legalized prescription drug importation from Canada. But if passed, it would have signaled that there’s enough political support in the Senate for the idea, increasing the odds of some real action eventually being implemented.
...
In an email, Booker’s spokesperson cited concerns over the “safety standards” of the prescription drugs that would be coming in from Canada under the amendment. As both the New Republic and the Intercept have noted, that explanation is somewhat hard to believe — the drugs sold in Canada are often literally produced in America, and Canada doesn’t seem to have a particular problem with poisoned medicine.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Default
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
City, yes, country.... Well he's an old, white guy, so he would have done better than Hill. Still, there are people out there in Pennsyltucky that could no more vote Democrat than jam a thumb up their ass and fly themselves around like a model plane. It's not logical, it's tribal.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Isn't Biden loved in PA as well? I highly doubt Trump wins that state if Biden is the candidate.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Isgrimnur wrote:But by Thursday, the story about Booker had flipped. The New Jersey senator and 12 other Senate Democrats had joined the bulk of the Republican caucus to kill a proposal aimed at lowering prescription drug prices. What made Booker’s vote all the more anguishing for the left is that the proposal won the backing of 13 Republican senators, and had a real chance of passing.
The Progressive War on Cory Booker is Stupid
Not that it'll stop them from eating their own, they never can keep their eye on the ball.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Since Trump has established the most egregious lies are the most helpful, I fully expect the Dems to come out with a brand new "Guns -- FUCK YEAH!" platform aimed at flipping some goobers then making gun control their #1 priority once a new regime is in place.Default wrote:City, yes, country.... Well he's an old, white guy, so he would have done better than Hill. Still, there are people out there in Pennsyltucky that could no more vote Democrat than jam a thumb up their ass and fly themselves around like a model plane. It's not logical, it's tribal.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Isn't Biden loved in PA as well? I highly doubt Trump wins that state if Biden is the candidate.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Snopes on the Booker fallout
The vote was more symbolic than substantive. It was an amendment to a Senate budget resolution, which is a non-binding measure that doesn’t get signed by the president or become law. Rather, they set a framework for committee chairs to work within when deciding how to spend money.
So the measures shouldn’t be oversold as direct action.
"Simply put, if adopted by the Senate, the amendment would not have required the United States to begin importing drugs from Canada -- period, full stop," said Jeff Giertz, communications director for Booker. "It would have added language into the budget resolution that would have advised the Senate to spend money in a way that would result in this." "Giertz said that Booker supported the same goals, but wanted to see a framework for ensuring the safety of imported drugs included in the amendment."
It’s important to know that every one of the 13 senators listed in the meme voted in favor of a separate amendment that did urge lower drug prices.
This other amendment effectively prevented the Senate from considering legislation that did not "as promised by (President-elect Donald Trump), lower drug prices, as certified by the Congressional Budget Office."
Like the other amendment, this did not pass -- it won only 47 votes in favor, with 51 against. But the fact that all 13 senators listed on the meme voted to support this amendment muddies the conclusion of the meme that they all "voted against cheaper medicines."
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• Booker: "I support the importation of prescription drugs as a key part of a strategy to help control the skyrocketing cost of medications. Any plan to allow the importation of prescription medications should also include consumer protections that ensure foreign drugs meet American safety standards. I opposed an amendment put forward last night that didn’t meet this test."
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Ugh, yeah, the Sanderista crowd on my Facebook feed was going nuts over Booker's vote on that. I think they're holding out for the Pure Divine Embodiment of Progressive Values for 2020.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
It's not *that* unrealistic. The conservative guys got their "Shrieking White-Hot Sphere of Pure Rage", after all.El Guapo wrote:Ugh, yeah, the Sanderista crowd on my Facebook feed was going nuts over Booker's vote on that. I think they're holding out for the Pure Divine Embodiment of Progressive Values for 2020.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
And they only had to give up most of their values to do so.NickAragua wrote:It's not *that* unrealistic. The conservative guys got their "Shrieking White-Hot Sphere of Pure Rage", after all.El Guapo wrote:Ugh, yeah, the Sanderista crowd on my Facebook feed was going nuts over Booker's vote on that. I think they're holding out for the Pure Divine Embodiment of Progressive Values for 2020.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
linkForty-three percent of voters are ready to vote for a nameless Democrat in 2020, while just over a third say they’ll vote for Trump.
But, in the fourth week of Trump’s presidency, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows that Democrats could be in trouble — and Trump could triumph — if they continue their lurch to the left.
Despite the public’s increasing misgivings about Trump’s behavior and tactics in the White House, he still beats Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in a hypothetical matchup, 42 percent to 36 percent — a fairly impressive margin for a less-than-popular president against the prominent senator.
Three and a half years to go, but still something to keep in mind.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
How many typical voters actually know who she is?
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
WaTimes
Ms. Warren is hindered by a lack of name recognition and enthusiasm, the poll indicates. While 37 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of the senator and 30 percent an unfavorable one, 18 percent of respondents say they have heard of her but are indifferent to her politics. Sixteen percent say they have never heard of her.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
I would think 84% is a fairly high name recognition, though.
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
I respect her work and positions (mostly aligned with my own), but she's probably perceived by typical Dem voters as MOTS/establishment. She will have many of the same problems that Hillary ran into I suspect.
I think we're going to have to pull another Barry out of the hat to truly energize the base.
I think we're going to have to pull another Barry out of the hat to truly energize the base.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
I think the base want establishment/MOTS and it's the progressives and youth that have pulled away. Warren is good for them. I think the establishment can't contain her and they will only support her if there is no establishment choice.Carpet_pissr wrote:I respect her work and positions (mostly aligned with my own), but she's probably perceived by typical Dem voters as MOTS/establishment. She will have many of the same problems that Hillary ran into I suspect.
I think we're going to have to pull another Barry out of the hat to truly energize the base.
That said, I think she will one problem Hillary had and that's sexism. Aside from that, it would take an openly DINO to actually pull votes away from the crazed right, which defeats the whole purpose.
I don't know if Warren is the best choice, but as much as I disagree with her on a lot of things, I could vote for her in conscience. I think she has the US best interest at heart and if she errs of the behalf of the working class and environment. My biggest fear with her is that I think there hills to die on hills not to die on and I'm not sure she believes the later. Even so, she is by far my favorite congressman.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
I don't think this is true. Warren is a progressive icon on the left. While she never endorsed Sanders, she pointedly did not endorse Clinton until the primary was just about over.Carpet_pissr wrote:I respect her work and positions (mostly aligned with my own), but she's probably perceived by typical Dem voters as MOTS/establishment. She will have many of the same problems that Hillary ran into I suspect.
I think we're going to have to pull another Barry out of the hat to truly energize the base.
There's a tendency as you get farther left to vacillate between anointing leaders as saviors one day, then quickly turning on them as soon as they make one decision that you disagree with, but she has a MUCH better standing with progressive democrats than Hillary ever did.
As for the poll of Warren vs. Trump, I wonder how other individual named democrats poll against Trump. I suspect that "unnamed democrat" will mostly prevail over any individual democrat, because one can imagine "unnamed democrat" however you like, whereas actual democrats have positions and flaws.
Black Lives Matter.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
You can find details of the poll linked to in the Politico article. Unnamed and Warren are the only scenarios they asked. You can see a lot of details on who votes for who.El Guapo wrote: As for the poll of Warren vs. Trump, I wonder how other individual named democrats poll against Trump. I suspect that "unnamed democrat" will mostly prevail over any individual democrat, because one can imagine "unnamed democrat" however you like, whereas actual democrats have positions and flaws.
For example, Unnamed democrats gets 87% of '16 Clinton voters Trump gets 71% of his previous voters. Warren pulls in only 75% of Clinton's supporters, while Trump manages to pull in 83% of his voters - so her inclusion actually drives up his support. (There's about 3-4% of previous voters that switch their votes in each of the above). You can take a look and see if you can find anything interesting.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
It makes sense that including Warren (or probably most named democrats) would drive up Trump's support among his voters. There are plenty of people who don't like Trump but who also dislike godless democrats.Defiant wrote:You can find details of the poll linked to in the Politico article. Unnamed and Warren are the only scenarios they asked. You can see a lot of details on who votes for who.El Guapo wrote: As for the poll of Warren vs. Trump, I wonder how other individual named democrats poll against Trump. I suspect that "unnamed democrat" will mostly prevail over any individual democrat, because one can imagine "unnamed democrat" however you like, whereas actual democrats have positions and flaws.
For example, Unnamed democrats gets 87% of '16 Clinton voters Trump gets 71% of his previous voters. Warren pulls in only 75% of Clinton's supporters, while Trump manages to pull in 83% of his voters - so her inclusion actually drives up his support. (There's about 3-4% of previous voters that switch their votes in each of the above). You can take a look and see if you can find anything interesting.
Black Lives Matter.
- LordMortis
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Especially progressive women godless religious freedom denying democrats with socialist agendas that would impose standards on free enterprise and place undo burden on the white working class to support pork and the welfare state.El Guapo wrote:It makes sense that including Warren (or probably most named democrats) would drive up Trump's support among his voters. There are plenty of people who don't like Trump but who also dislike godless democrats.
- gilraen
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
If you read the poll methodology, it's heavily weighted toward the South (over one-third of respondents).Defiant wrote:linkForty-three percent of voters are ready to vote for a nameless Democrat in 2020, while just over a third say they’ll vote for Trump.
But, in the fourth week of Trump’s presidency, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows that Democrats could be in trouble — and Trump could triumph — if they continue their lurch to the left.
Despite the public’s increasing misgivings about Trump’s behavior and tactics in the White House, he still beats Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in a hypothetical matchup, 42 percent to 36 percent — a fairly impressive margin for a less-than-popular president against the prominent senator.
Three and a half years to go, but still something to keep in mind.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Good find, I missed that, although that doesn't explain it all, since the poll doesn't show her that strong outside of the south. The poll does oversample liberals (they're about a third of the poll, but only about 25% overall). I'm thinking it might be education - about two thirds are less than a Bachelors degree, when 2016 exit polls show that to be about 50%.gilraen wrote: If you read the poll methodology, it's heavily weighted toward the South (over one-third of respondents).