Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:12 pm
That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/
For sure, but Kurth's invocation of the Bernie Bros implied to me that he was concerned that people wouldn't vote for the eventual nominee. It think it's entirely fair that people fight in the primaries for the candidate that appeals to them the most, but once the nominee is decided I can't imagine setting that aside and voting for whoever that is. I'd be a lot less black and white if we didn't have the orange monstrosity on the throne, but there is almost nobody I wouldn't vote for over him. Tulsi Gabbard is pushing it, though.El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:53 pmTo be fair, "Laura Seay" seems to be saying that she won't vote for Buttigieg in the primary, not that she wouldn't vote for him over Trump.gbasden wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:46 pmI don't get it either. There are a bunch of Democratic candidates that I'm not super thrilled with for various reasons. Barring massive head trauma, I will vote for any of them over Trump in a heartbeat whether they are my first choice or 27th.Kurth wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:03 am
Yep. People here seem to think that this is just part of the normal primary go-around. Fine. But I thought we all pretty much agreed that we're far removed from "normal" in our politics these days. Yet, I see the way Dems have treated their own aspiring candidates, and I am really concerned the Dem primary is going to become a total shit-show. Buttigieg appears to be a promising candidate. He has inspired people to get behind him, and he's been taking off in the polls. Yet he's being savaged by the left because his "progressive" credentials aren't quite progressive enough.
I feel like we're in for Attack of the Bernie Bros, Part II. Except this time it's going to include Warren's supporters, and maybe other factions. That does not appear to me to be a recipe for success against Trump.
I think I'll drive a spike through my head if the Dems end up giving us 4 more years of Trump because they can't get their shit together.
This worked for the Republican Party, until it created Trump.Kurth wrote:But it is beyond me that, for some, because a candidate doesn't check the most progressive box on that one issue, they are precluded from further consideration.
They're called valid criticisms when they're true. It's up to the listener to decide whether those criticisms hold sway or not. I'm constantly bombarded here in Canada by both left and right wing media about the sainthood/antichrist nature of Trudeau. 90% I dismiss out of hand as pure spin propaganda. As long as the base facts are true, good enough. Even if they are accompanied by outrageous conclusions that don't reasonably follow those facts.
Links to quick survey.Some personal news: After six years on the national desk, I’ll be covering the 2020 presidential campaign for @latimes, focusing on features and investigations. And I want to try something a little different! Tell me how you think I should cover the race:
Well, that tweet is pretty prescient as the whole incarcerated felons voting issue is quickly gaining steam. This tweet links to an AP article about the issue.
Quick Google says 2.2 million.GreenGoo wrote:Just how many freakin' Americans are in jail that they can impact census numbers enough to change political power?
Yeah, but unless they're all in Orange County in California, it shouldn't make any difference, census-wise, no?YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:59 pmQuick Google says 2.2 million.GreenGoo wrote:Just how many freakin' Americans are in jail that they can impact census numbers enough to change political power?
They should be treated like college students and be able to absentee vote at their home location. Imagine the impact on Chicago elections.GreenGoo wrote:Yeah, but unless they're all in Orange County in California, it shouldn't make any difference, census-wise, no?YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:59 pmQuick Google says 2.2 million.GreenGoo wrote:Just how many freakin' Americans are in jail that they can impact census numbers enough to change political power?
It's my understanding that a disproportionate number of for-profit prisons are in red states. Their headcount helps those states in various ways (including the census), as long as they can't vote. Do we presume that they would go overwhelmingly blue? Because that would be awkward for those states.GreenGoo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:02 pmYeah, but unless they're all in Orange County in California, it shouldn't make any difference, census-wise, no?YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:59 pmQuick Google says 2.2 million.GreenGoo wrote:Just how many freakin' Americans are in jail that they can impact census numbers enough to change political power?
This thread a) mentions the headcount in red states thing and b) that they would likely vote Democratic.Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:57 amIt's my understanding that a disproportionate number of for-profit prisons are in red states. Their headcount helps those states in various ways (including the census), as long as they can't vote. Do we presume that they would go overwhelmingly blue? Because that would be awkward for those states.GreenGoo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:02 pmYeah, but unless they're all in Orange County in California, it shouldn't make any difference, census-wise, no?YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:59 pmQuick Google says 2.2 million.GreenGoo wrote:Just how many freakin' Americans are in jail that they can impact census numbers enough to change political power?
I imagined and came up with nothing. Or do you think incarcerated gang-bangers would totally go Republican if they could? Would the entire prison population matter at all? It seems like one thing most would have in common is lack of any sort of civic pride that normally inspires people to vote.
A fairer arrangement would be for only certain crimes to cost you your franchise, just as different crimes carry different penalties. Likewise, prisoners should not count towards the population of their district but towards the population of their prior residence (although you could let them choose to register their residence as the district of the prison if they wish).
Prisoner's earn solitary confinement for being exceptionally violent, or sometimes for their own protection. Generally this has little to do with the offense they have been convicted of.
Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, a moderate who has made his appeal to working-class voters who deserted the Democrats in 2016 a key part of his political identity, launched a bid for the White House on Thursday as the party’s instant frontrunner.
The idea of stripping citizenship or rights of citizenship is a pretty scary one in general, so we should be extremely careful with it. I tend to support letting prisoners vote as long as that's logistically feasible for that reason. But in some ways losing voting rights for some type of offenses (beyond a felony / misdemeanor line) but not others is scarier than a blanket loss, because it would seem to make that a punishment specific to that offense (also raising more constitutional issues), further implying that there are specific people who don't deserve to vote, and providing for a process for stripping people of the right to vote based upon specific acts.Holman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:59 amA fairer arrangement would be for only certain crimes to cost you your franchise, just as different crimes carry different penalties. Likewise, prisoners should not count towards the population of their district but towards the population of their prior residence (although you could let them choose to register their residence as the district of the prison if they wish).
Saying every prisoner must lose their vote regardless of their offense is like saying every prisoner should be in solitary confinement regardless of their offense.
I'm not totally sure what the logical defense is of letting ex-felons vote but not letting current felons vote, unless it's too logistically cumbersome to let current felons vote (which seems unlikely - wouldn't seem too burdensome to bring a few voting machines into a prison).
Probably the argument about being rehabilitated for having served your time and therefore reentering society vs. currently facing the punishment for one's misdeeds? That's where I would fall on this issue.El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:50 amI'm not totally sure what the logical defense is of letting ex-felons vote but not letting current felons vote, unless it's too logistically cumbersome to let current felons vote (which seems unlikely - wouldn't seem too burdensome to bring a few voting machines into a prison).
Candidate campaigning in penitentiary wrote:"Vote for me you fine miscreants and I will shut this place down and set you all free! Free I say! Down with the unjust laws that put you here - we should all have the freedom to shoot in the face those who don't bend to our will, to rape those wouldn't give it up when asked nicely, to make an honest living selling meth to children! THEY call it financial fraud, I call it "stupid old people who give it away on foolish ideas!" If they are going to be so careless, why not let us have it? Financial fraud my ass! A vote for me is a vote for freedom!
and exactly zero votes from the non-incarcerated crowd gets them not elected.Jeff V wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:58 am How could that possibly go wrong?
Candidate campaigning in penitentiary wrote:"Vote for me you fine miscreants and I will shut this place down and set you all free! Free I say! Down with the unjust laws that put you here - we should all have the freedom to shoot in the face those who don't bend to our will, to rape those wouldn't give it up when asked nicely, to make an honest living selling meth to children! THEY call it financial fraud, I call it "stupid old people who give it away on foolish ideas!" If they are going to be so careless, why not let us have it? Financial fraud my ass! A vote for me is a vote for freedom!
That implies that everyone in prison is there because of unjust laws, and I reject that premise. People in prison shouldn 't be allowed to vote - that's part of the cost of their violation of the law. I have no problem with them voting after release.
I'm in favor of Biden for a couple of reasons:
You weren't paying attention during the Trump election, did you? People cast votes that were essentially in favor of all sorts of reprehensible things just to hear the tweet of their dog whistle at the same time.Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:01 pm and exactly zero votes from the non-incarcerated crowd gets them not elected.
Yeah, that makes some sense. I tend to take the main argument for felon disenfranchisement as being "someone who would commit a felony is not someone we want to be part of our democracy", and on that I tend not to see a huge distinction between current and former inmates (though you are right that the latter have gone through some rehabilitation, at least in theory).pr0ner wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:52 amProbably the argument about being rehabilitated for having served your time and therefore reentering society vs. currently facing the punishment for one's misdeeds? That's where I would fall on this issue.El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:50 amI'm not totally sure what the logical defense is of letting ex-felons vote but not letting current felons vote, unless it's too logistically cumbersome to let current felons vote (which seems unlikely - wouldn't seem too burdensome to bring a few voting machines into a prison).
I think the polls have shown that he does fine with African Americans and Women, but doesn't have as much appeal among the young.
I agree with the first part. The second part doesn't have to be true, unless it's enshrined in your constitution or something?
According to the Social Security Administration life expectancy calculator, he's got a 50/50 shot of making it to 87. Considering he's in way better than average health (for a 76 year old) now, I'd guess that puts him a lot better than a 25% chance to die in office.
I'm up for a Biden-Harris ticket. IMHO, we need some CA blood in the WH.Defiant wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:19 pm I can see Biden being a one-term President with the goal of repairing our institutions and restoring our country, and I would be happy to vote for him in the general if he were the Democratic nominee, but...
I think the polls have shown that he does fine with African Americans and Women, but doesn't have as much appeal among the young.
I think his biggest drawback is age. Given his age, there's like a 25-30% chance he'll be dead by the end of his first term. Also, there's a significant risk of Alzheimer's at his age.
These are two important points.Defiant wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:19 pm I think the polls have shown that he does fine with African Americans and Women, but doesn't have as much appeal among the young.
I think his biggest drawback is age. Given his age, there's like a 25-30% chance he'll be dead by the end of his first term. Also, there's a significant risk of Alzheimer's at his age.