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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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Jeff V
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:24 pm

Jaymann wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:54 pm
You would think as President he might get some elevated health care.
Not until he repeals and replaces Trumpdon'tCare.

Aside from the age, my concern is he would lack the energy to not only undo the damage Trump has done but put permanent controls in place to prevent another Trump down the line. Biden is like a Walmart Price Rollback if it was just rolling back to last month's price. Keep in mind, he failed twice as a younger, more vital man.

I suspect Biden's current popularity is entirely because he is the best known entity in a crowded field. I think this will be an election similar to 1992 when Bill Clinton started slow and built momentum through the primaries. We'll find out pretty quickly I think if Biden and/or Sanders can maintain a level of energy during an arduous primary process.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:25 pm

Jaymann wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:54 pm
You would think as President he might get some elevated health care.
Yes, but also added stress that's aged people who've been in the office.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:34 pm

Jaymann wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:54 pm
You would think as President he might get some elevated health care.
Sure, but it's not magic.

While dying in office is a factor. Becoming infirm of mind and/or body is much more likely, and possibly more problematic that dying, as far as the presidency is concerned.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by YellowKing » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:37 pm

CNN's analysis is that Biden's problem is money, not age.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:38 pm

Holman wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:22 pm


1) The Blue Wave of 2018 was driven by higher-than-expected turnout among the young.
Was it?

I mean, yes, voter turnout among the young dramatically jumped 10% from 2014. But turnout as a whole jumped 13.6% between 2014 and 2018, so I have trouble buying that that the increase in youth turnout *drove* the blue wave, though it certainly had an impact.

But yes, the youth vote is important, but so are all the other demographics. I don't, currently, see one figure that can unite them *all* strongly.
Last edited by Defiant on Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Grifman » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:42 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:24 pm
[
Aside from the age, my concern is he would lack the energy to not only undo the damage Trump has done but put permanent controls in place to prevent another Trump down the line.
That's impossible. As long as you let people vote, there will always be the possibility that they will elect bad, even terrible people as president. That's always the risk with democracy. You can even look at Athenian democracy, one of the first. Sometime they elected terrible leaders, sometimes they voted and approved terrible policies. It comes with the territory.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by YellowKing » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:41 pm

I think the controls in this instance would be making sure that when the next Trump is elected, he can't get away with some of the same shenanigans. IE - put protections on the checks and balances we thought were in place but were undermined by this presidency.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:43 pm

It's not about stopping drumpf at the polls, it's about stopping him in the seat. It is my understanding that new laws can put limits on the presidency that only congress can undo, which can help prevent a constant do/undo cycle every time there is a new president.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:30 pm

At lot of what's happening with Trump & McConnell is that they've run roughshod over limits that were never put into law.

The old norms held in part because politicians wanted to be seen as decent, wanted to be seen as representing all the people, and feared that breaking them would result in the same bad behavior against their own side as soon as the office changed hands.

Trump doesn't give a shit about the first two because he is utterly indecent and openly divisive, and he cares nothing about the third because he doesn't give a shit about anyone who isn't Donald Trump.

Our system is incredibly rickety in that it has always depended on politicians having, if not a sense of duty, at least a sense of shame.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V » Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:35 pm

YellowKing wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:37 pm
CNN's analysis is that Biden's problem is money, not age.
True (they rank Sanders ahead because of this) but also there is no historical record on which to base the effect of age on candidates this old this early in the process. I thought we were pushing it with Reagan and by his second term, he certainly had toys in the attic. If either of them make it to the nomination, they better pick a ringer for VEEP; I think that is the only way you diffuse the age issue in the general election.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:35 pm

Holman wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:30 pm
Our system is incredibly rickety in that it has always depended on politicians having, if not a sense of duty, at least a sense of shame.

Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:48 pm

Unagi wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:35 pm
Holman wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:30 pm
Our system is incredibly rickety in that it has always depended on politicians having, if not a sense of duty, at least a sense of shame.

Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?
Fun fact: McCarthy's lawyer was Roy Cohn.

Guess who was Trump's mentor in the world of dirty tricks?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis » Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:29 pm

AOC gets it right again when she plead to give to candidates and causes directly. You begin to understand why the GOP are terrified children when it comes to one freshman House member.

https://theintercept.com/2019/04/25/dcc ... democrats/
Young Democrats at 31 colleges across the country are boycotting the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee over its decision to cut off vendors working for primary challengers.

The Harvard College Democrats released a letter Wednesday calling for a national boycott of donations to the party’s House campaign arm, urging people instead to contribute to individual candidates until the DCCC reverses the rule. By Wednesday afternoon, 26 chapters of college Democrats from Spelman to Arizona State had signed the letter calling the policy “regressive” and “undemocratic.” By Thursday, 14 more joined, according to Hank Sparks, president of the Harvard College Democrats.

The DCCC released guidelines last month for vendors working the 2020 election cycle, requiring them to agree not to work with any candidates challenging Democratic incumbents. The committee has stood by the change even as progressive leaders met privately with Chair Cheri Bustos and slammed it. Former committee Chair Ben Ray Luján has distanced himself from the policy. And House Democrats — including Reps. Ted Lieu, former DCCC vice chair and current vice chair of House Democrats’ LGBT Equality caucus; Ayanna Pressley; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; Raul Grijalva; Joe Kennedy; Jahana Hayes — have voiced their opposition.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:02 pm

Biden has raised $6.3 in the first 24 hours of his campaign, which gives an answer to the lingering question of his fundraising ability, and puts him 200K over Beto and 400k over Sanders.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by YellowKing » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:06 pm

Is it legal for Biden to pick Obama as his VP? :D

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:16 pm




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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:27 pm

YellowKing wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:06 pm
Is it legal for Biden to pick Obama as his VP? :D
I would think so, for sure.
There would be a question of if he could actually succeed him though, so it would perhaps go to Nancy Pelosi.

Be fun to watch Republicans struggle with that situation, if it came up.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by pr0ner » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:33 pm

Here's a Kamala Harris HOT TAKE for you:

Hodor.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:43 pm

SMILE, You're on Candid Camera.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:46 pm

Unagi wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:27 pm
YellowKing wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:06 pm
Is it legal for Biden to pick Obama as his VP? :D
I would think so, for sure.
There would be a question of if he could actually succeed him though, so it would perhaps go to Nancy Pelosi.

Be fun to watch Republicans struggle with that situation, if it came up.
I would say probably no, but actually looking at the amendments it's a much vaguer thing. Per the 12th Amendment:
The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and all persons voted for as Vice-President and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate;

The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted;

The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.[a]

The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.[1]
And the 22nd amendment:
Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

Section 2. This Article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several states within seven years from the date of its submission to the states by the Congress.[2]
Obama's clearly constitutionally ineligible to be elected president (having been elected President twice already). But technically the 22nd amendment only prohibits people from being "elected" president more than twice, not from serving as president more than twice. So just going by the letter of the text, you could say that Obama could run as VP with someone else, have that person immediately resign after inauguration, and serve another full term.

But that seems plainly contrary to what the 22nd amendment is trying to do, and I wonder whether there's legislative history to that effect.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:57 pm

I would argue that Biden can pick Obama to be his VP if he wants, he just wouldn't actually be eligible to be VP, which would leave it to the Electoral College to pick a VP.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:00 pm

Unagi wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:27 pm
YellowKing wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:06 pm
Is it legal for Biden to pick Obama as his VP? :D
I would think so, for sure.
There would be a question of if he could actually succeed him though, so it would perhaps go to Nancy Pelosi.

Be fun to watch Republicans struggle with that situation, if it came up.
It would be up to the courts. Snopes

Being a throwback to the Clinton/Obama establishment is already Biden's main liability, though, so he will want to distance himself from Obama. As one pundit said, if voters had wanted a third Obama term they would have elected Clinton.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:04 pm

When did Obama and Clinton become Clinton/Obama? Obama had flaws and Obama had very fine aspects. I don't tie any of them to Clinton.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jaymann » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:15 pm

Defiant wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:57 pm
I would argue that Biden can pick Obama to be his VP if he wants, he just wouldn't actually be eligible to be VP, which would leave it to the Electoral College to pick a VP.
It might be worth it just to see msduncan lose his mind.
Jaymann
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:32 pm



Oof.

Maybe Biden is running for Bill Clinton's third term?


Ah, wait. That quote was from 2010.

Still something to address, but the world has moved on.

Even I was against legalization not too long before that.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:13 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:04 pm
When did Obama and Clinton become Clinton/Obama? Obama had flaws and Obama had very fine aspects. I don't tie any of them to Clinton.
I was referring to Bill; today's D establishment runs back to him. Obama governed in the same centrist, compromising, (wanna-be) bipartisan mode, at least until the GOP made it abundantly obvious that they would not cooperate on anything in any way.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:14 pm

Kraken wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:13 pm
least until the GOP made it abundantly obvious that they would not cooperate on anything in any way.
Wasn't that his first inauguration day?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:19 pm

Jaymann wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:15 pm
Defiant wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:57 pm
I would argue that Biden can pick Obama to be his VP if he wants, he just wouldn't actually be eligible to be VP, which would leave it to the Electoral College to pick a VP.
It might be worth it just to see msduncan lose his mind.
Why would Michelle Obama be ineligible to be VEEP? :?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:36 pm

Kraken wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:00 pm
Being a throwback to the Clinton/Obama establishment is already Biden's main liability, though, so he will want to distance himself from Obama. As one pundit said, if voters had wanted a third Obama term they would have elected Clinton.
Well... I don't know if that's 100% transferable (I feel the Clinton Hate was large, and if people could run for 3 terms, Obama would have creamed Trump).


But, yes- The connections to Biden -> Obama -> Clinton are certainly one of his main liabilities.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:48 pm

Kraken wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:00 pm
Snopes
That doesn't really address it though, IMO.

One could argue that the VP could simply be denied the (3rd Term/succession) when and if it ever came to that (he didn't fit the requirements). To deny him the position of Vice President can NOT be defended. Can he also not be appointed as the Secretary of Education?

If we look at the line of sucession, are we to pressume that any 2 term president can NOT obtain any of these roles? :


Speaker of the House of Representatives
President pro tempore of the Senate
Secretary of State
Secretary of the Treasury
Secretary of Defense
Attorney General
Secretary of the Interior
Secretary of Agriculture
Secretary of Commerce
Secretary of Labor
Secretary of Health and Human Services
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
Secretary of Transportation
Secretary of Energy
Secretary of Education
Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Secretary of Homeland Security



To prove the point: Could Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be denighed the role of Speaker of the House, because it is in the line of succession? No. We would deal with her ability to take on the role of President if it ever came to it.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:14 pm

Defiant wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:57 pm
I would argue that Biden can pick Obama to be his VP if he wants, he just wouldn't actually be eligible to be VP, which would leave it to the Electoral College to pick a VP.
Why not? What makes him ineligible to be VP?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:31 pm

Unagi wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:48 pm
Kraken wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:00 pm
Snopes
That doesn't really address it though, IMO.

One could argue that the VP could simply be denied the (3rd Term/succession) when and if it ever came to that (he didn't fit the requirements). To deny him the position of Vice President can NOT be defended. Can he also not be appointed as the Secretary of Education?

If we look at the line of sucession, are we to pressume that any 2 term president can NOT obtain any of these roles? :


Speaker of the House of Representatives
President pro tempore of the Senate
Secretary of State
Secretary of the Treasury
Secretary of Defense
Attorney General
Secretary of the Interior
Secretary of Agriculture
Secretary of Commerce
Secretary of Labor
Secretary of Health and Human Services
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
Secretary of Transportation
Secretary of Energy
Secretary of Education
Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Secretary of Homeland Security



To prove the point: Could Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be denighed the role of Speaker of the House, because it is in the line of succession? No. We would deal with her ability to take on the role of President if it ever came to it.
The Constitution isn't a computer program or an RPG rulebook covering every possibility; edge cases are up to the courts to interpret in the spirit of the law, and no one knows how they would rule if (e.g.) Obama were elected Speaker of the House and then the POTUS and VP fell under a train.

Not only that, but no one knows what would happen if the Supreme Court said No to something and the POTUS did it anyway. What enforcement power does the Supreme Court have?

What would happen if Congress impeached the president and removed him office and he refused to accept it? We have no idea. It has never been tested.

Our system is rickety as hell. It depends on most people up and down the chain being sincerely devoted to the good of the nation. If they're not, there's no back-up power. At this point in the thought experiment we're about two steps from the most lurid NRA fantasies of insurrection and civil war.

Civil society is hard because some people are bad. Our only hope is that enough people are good. A decent society would devote maximum resources to making/educating/encouraging/supporting people to be as good as possible, even the ones who start with disadvantages, but that doesn't appear to be what America is about these days.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:41 pm

My point is this...

If AOC could be elected as the Speaker of the House, then Obama could be slates/elected as the VP.

There is nothing to stop that.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:33 pm

I foresee the media and America giving us (and I'm even willing to give in to) an 'Establishment Old White Dem' (Biden) vs. 'the New-GOP Incumbent' (Trump).
As much as I'd LOVE to see Buttigieg, O’Rourke , Gillibrand, Booker, Sanders (in that order).


Honestly - I am sure most folks who once voted for Obama are currently of a like mind: who ever the hell comes out of the Democratic Primary is My Guy/Gal.

I imagine there are some portion of 'Let's give Trump a chance' / Hillary-Haters willing to abandon their previous vote for Trump so as NOT to double-down on what is now Trump's legacy.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:33 pm

Unagi wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:41 pm
My point is this...

If AOC could be elected as the Speaker of the House, then Obama could be slates/elected as the VP.

There is nothing to stop that.
In purely practical terms, choosing a former two-term president as your VP hands your opponent a powerful argument against you. The airtime spent debating the What-Ifs comes out of the arguments you'd rather be making.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:39 pm

Holman wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:33 pm
Unagi wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:41 pm
My point is this...

If AOC could be elected as the Speaker of the House, then Obama could be slates/elected as the VP.

There is nothing to stop that.
In purely practical terms, choosing a former two-term president as your VP hands your opponent a powerful argument against you. The airtime spent debating the What-Ifs comes out of the arguments you'd rather be making.
Right, and my remark to that effect (I mean, you still have the point that it has it's baggage) is that you totally conceed the fact that your VP nominee waves their claim to the throne. No biggie... There is a long line of succession... Perhaps it could even be a new trend. The VP is an Old President that could never actually take the helm and hence the Congress is actually really a heartbeat away from the presidency.


/shooting from the hip here a bit.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:41 pm

Buttigieg/Carter 2020. Do it!!
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:52 pm

Holman wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:41 pm
Buttigieg/Carter 2020. Do it!!
Well, if someone really wants to write such fan fiction, here's a picture you can use with it:

Image

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:02 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:14 pm
Kraken wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:13 pm
least until the GOP made it abundantly obvious that they would not cooperate on anything in any way.
Wasn't that his first inauguration day?
He didn't wake up until the end of his first term. It was sad to watch.
Holman wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:41 pm
Buttigieg/Carter 2020. Do it!!
:lol: IDK how the courts would rule if Biden really did name Obama as his running mate, but I guarantee you there'd be penalty flags all over the field.

To help counteract his negatives, Biden needs to name a young, nonwhite progressive. Preferably female.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Unagi » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:17 pm

Defiant wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:52 pm
Well, if someone really wants to write such fan fiction, here's a picture you can use with it:
Enlarge Image
That looks easily lasso-able too, for any background.

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