Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Jeff V
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V »

pr0ner wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 10:53 am
Jeff V wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 10:14 am Wonder if this changed his polling numbers. The last batch I saw a few days ago had him as the only top 10 Dem that projects to lose to Trump.
I think he's actually polling third in Iowa right now.
The poll I was referring to was Trump vs. Dem#___. Too early now to worry about it much, but it is a possible concern. Winning the battle doesn't help if he doesn't also win the war. Whoever wins the Dem nomination has to be able to reign in a good percentage of moderates, including some that are a little right of center. I'm wondering if the Fox News interview gained some traction for him -- perhaps some of the less-staunch homophobes on the right might concede he is likable and someone they could deal with.
Black Lives Matter
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The Meal
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by The Meal »

This feels like Mayor Pete's announcement of self to the world (sort of like Beto). Bigger things are in their future (probably not in 2020).
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
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rittchard
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by rittchard »

Jeff V wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 11:05 am
pr0ner wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 10:53 am
Jeff V wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 10:14 am Wonder if this changed his polling numbers. The last batch I saw a few days ago had him as the only top 10 Dem that projects to lose to Trump.
I think he's actually polling third in Iowa right now.
The poll I was referring to was Trump vs. Dem#___. Too early now to worry about it much, but it is a possible concern. Winning the battle doesn't help if he doesn't also win the war. Whoever wins the Dem nomination has to be able to reign in a good percentage of moderates, including some that are a little right of center. I'm wondering if the Fox News interview gained some traction for him -- perhaps some of the less-staunch homophobes on the right might conede he is likable and someone they could deal with.
I think that's what's happening, at least if you follow the limited sampling on Twitter. People are posting about how their lifetime Republican parents, etc are impressed with him. Not just because of the Fox thing, but certainly there more of those type of posts the last couple of days.

I honestly think he can beat Trump, but unfortunately I don't think he can win the nomination. IF by some miracle he did, though, the party would have to rally around him (as they will no likely do for any candidate), which means even his weakest areas (presently black voters) get shored up pretty quickly. But because of his small town and military background and the fact he's already been laying the groundwork, he can also pull in more conservative working class voters that Hilary didn't. He also stands to bring in a lot of younger/millennial voters that might not have voted otherwise. Women voters should also be a force this election due to the abortion issue, and while that should benefit any Democrat, I think he appeals strongly to women as well.
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Fireball
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Fireball »

Pete is an impressive guy. His surge in the polls seems to have ended. In my rolling average, he was at 1% two months ago, surged to 8% a month ago, and has tapered off to 5%.

In the last month, Biden has surged up 10%, Warren is up 3%, Beto is down 3%, Sanders is down 5% (yay!), Harris is flat.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by GreenGoo »

Pete sounds like an intelligent guy, quick on his feet, and somewhat charismatic. It helps that I like what he says. From the little I've seen I think he'd make a great president one day. I just don't think that day is 2020. Your country needs lots of qualified, intelligent, reasonable politicians for all sorts of roles. It takes more than a president to run a country.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

Fun thread:

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Sepiche
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Sepiche »

Just some simple popularity data driving it, but really interesting visualization of Drumpf's popularity with a slider to let you look at how his favorability has changed state by state over the last two years.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Latest numbers for Drumpf in the Rust Belt are near disastrous, and it only looks worse if you look at matchups between him and other Democrats in those states. Reportedly Drumpf's team is looking to expand the game into the southwest to make up for the loss of the Rust Belt, but he's not much better in the SW and immigration and tariffs are hurting him there even more than the Rust Belt.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Smoove_B »

I think Biden just made a mistake:
Joe Biden is breaking with many of his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination by maintaining support for a four-decade rule that prohibits paying for abortions with federal funds.

Biden’s campaign said in a statement that the former vice president is sticking with his long-standing backing of the 1976 Hyde Amendment, which has been routinely added to government funding bills and blocks federal medical programs from paying for abortions except in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the woman.
For those that aren't clear, the Hyde Amendment was used to block federal HIV funding during the 1980s and in theory it could be used to maintain a block Trump has enacted on federally-funded reproductive health programs - at least according to the policy people I follow.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant »

And while Biden would've been the only congressmember around to okay the original amendment, Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), as well as Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas), voted for a 2018 appropriations bill that contained similar language.
link
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Smoove_B
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Smoove_B »

That's some good detective work, Lou. I'm guessing we're about to hear a lot about "evolved positions". :think:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur »

I'm pretty sure that if that were a red line, no appropriations bill would ever get passed. The bill is 68,535 words.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Pyperkub »

Fireball wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 2:48 pm Pete is an impressive guy. His surge in the polls seems to have ended. In my rolling average, he was at 1% two months ago, surged to 8% a month ago, and has tapered off to 5%.

In the last month, Biden has surged up 10%, Warren is up 3%, Beto is down 3%, Sanders is down 5% (yay!), Harris is flat.
Hey Fireball - got any insight as to which campaign/candidate may have the best ground game in place? Saw some reports that Harris was ramping up in Iowa, but behind the curve, and I was wondering what your impressions are?

Thanks!
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur »

WaPo
In a dramatic reversal, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said Thursday he no longer supports a ban on federal funding for abortions, known as the Hyde Amendment, a move he announced after a day of sharp criticism from campaign rivals and key Democratic interest groups.

The former vice president announced the change during a speech at the Democratic National Committee’s African American Leadership Council summit in Atlanta, telling the crowd that, in an environment where the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion is under attack in Republican-held states, he could no longer support a policy that limits funding.

“We’ve seen state after state including Georgia passing extreme laws,” Biden said. “It’s clear that these folks are going to stop at nothing to get rid of Roe.”

“Circumstances have changed,” he said.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken »

Mike Gravel is running for president! Or, at least, a couple of teenagers are running him, via Twitter. Are they trolling us? Using him? What's his agenda? Who the hell is Mike Gravel again, anyway?

It's complicated, interesting, and more insightful than you might think. Here's a taste:
As offensive as leftists found Trump’s policies, his style was arguably better suited to the age. Unconcerned with authenticity, he ran his campaign from an infinite present, declaring himself a really rich guy, who was also somehow a regular guy, who was also somehow a powerful guy, who was also somehow a foe to the elites. Like Twitter, his campaign was nimble and stupid — rejecting coherence in favor of noise. His frequent and flagrant transgressions of truth seemed sort of like a joke you could be in on. Williams and Oks were depressed that he won, but they had to admit that his new type of lie seemed somehow more compelling than Clinton’s endless marketing exercise.

If establishment politicians are all phony, and Twitter discourse is a compelling fantasy, then perhaps the main success of @MikeGravel is merging these two false conceits into one real one. In an online world where everything is understood to be a performance, @MikeGravel looks us squarely in the eye and admits, “Every politician is just a bunch of kids in a trench coat — so why not make them actual kids?” Instead of pretending a politician is a person, with verifiable personal beliefs, @MikeGravel reveals the kids inside the coat, enumerates them, suggests that we become one by donating a dollar. Instead of being gamed by the system, we are invited to game it ourselves.
...
“Trump was the first postmodern politician,” Williams says. “I like to think Gravel is the second.”
Oks sent an email to Gravel.

Three hours later, the former senator called back: “Absolutely not,” he said. “Do you know how old I am?”

Undeterred, the Teens kept calling for a week. On the night they finally persuaded him, it was raining, Williams said. They got Gravel on the phone and said something like, “Look, Mr. Gravel, you have not been in politics for a while, and we’re a lot younger than you. We were barely conscious when you were running in 2008, but what you said then, on that debate stage, you got no respect. You barely polled above 1 percent. Today, that is where the left is.”

They told him about Democratic Socialism and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the leftist energy on Twitter. They told him about podcasts and “Chapo Trap House.” By then, there was thunder and lightning outside; the Saw Mill Parkway was flooded. Oks recalled telling Gravel: “You don’t have to decide to run, but let us make an exploratory committee for you. Let us go online and start going at it, and see if people like it.”

Gravel remained skeptical — very, very skeptical — but bit by bit, they could sense that he might cave. “Eventually we wrote him a memo,” Oks said, taking a sip of his fourth and final Coke.

“He’s definitely of the memo era,” Williams said, claiming he first heard the word on “The West Wing.” “He asked us if we could fax it to him!”

After Gravel read the memo, he agreed.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Fireball »

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:28 pm
Fireball wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 2:48 pm Pete is an impressive guy. His surge in the polls seems to have ended. In my rolling average, he was at 1% two months ago, surged to 8% a month ago, and has tapered off to 5%.

In the last month, Biden has surged up 10%, Warren is up 3%, Beto is down 3%, Sanders is down 5% (yay!), Harris is flat.
Hey Fireball - got any insight as to which campaign/candidate may have the best ground game in place? Saw some reports that Harris was ramping up in Iowa, but behind the curve, and I was wondering what your impressions are?

Thanks!
In terms of Iowa, the general consensus is that Warren hired like 3 or 4 of the 5 best people to have on your team in that state. Nationally, you've got solid teams around Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, and good people with a couple of the others.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)
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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Fireball wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:02 am
Pyperkub wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:28 pm
Fireball wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 2:48 pm Pete is an impressive guy. His surge in the polls seems to have ended. In my rolling average, he was at 1% two months ago, surged to 8% a month ago, and has tapered off to 5%.

In the last month, Biden has surged up 10%, Warren is up 3%, Beto is down 3%, Sanders is down 5% (yay!), Harris is flat.
Hey Fireball - got any insight as to which campaign/candidate may have the best ground game in place? Saw some reports that Harris was ramping up in Iowa, but behind the curve, and I was wondering what your impressions are?

Thanks!
In terms of Iowa, the general consensus is that Warren hired like 3 or 4 of the 5 best people to have on your team in that state. Nationally, you've got solid teams around Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, and good people with a couple of the others.
Would you say that there are fine people on all sides?
Black Lives Matter.
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Fireball
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Fireball »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:09 am
Fireball wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:02 am
Pyperkub wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:28 pm
Fireball wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 2:48 pm Pete is an impressive guy. His surge in the polls seems to have ended. In my rolling average, he was at 1% two months ago, surged to 8% a month ago, and has tapered off to 5%.

In the last month, Biden has surged up 10%, Warren is up 3%, Beto is down 3%, Sanders is down 5% (yay!), Harris is flat.
Hey Fireball - got any insight as to which campaign/candidate may have the best ground game in place? Saw some reports that Harris was ramping up in Iowa, but behind the curve, and I was wondering what your impressions are?

Thanks!
In terms of Iowa, the general consensus is that Warren hired like 3 or 4 of the 5 best people to have on your team in that state. Nationally, you've got solid teams around Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, and good people with a couple of the others.
Would you say that there are fine people on all sides?
I would not.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »



Nice.
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Z-Corn
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Z-Corn »

Amash just recently left the Freedom Caucus that he helped form.

He's got the courage of his convictions, I'll give him that.
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Holman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

He seems to be on the way to being primaried out. His right-wing challenger leads by 16 points.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis »

Z-Corn wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:29 pm He's got the courage of his convictions, I'll give him that.
A hearty +1. I don't agree with a lot of what he subscribes to but I'd sit at the table with him and I'd respect him. I've never seen anything to lead me to believe his walk isn't honest and thought out nor that his highest ambition isn't to serve the Union.
Holman wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:36 pm He seems to be on the way to being primaried out. His right-wing challenger leads by 16 points.
I haven't kept up but assuming it's true, how very sad. I keep hoping. I keep seeing bright spots. Then I see you say this. My poor state. My poor nation.
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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

LordMortis wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:39 pm
Z-Corn wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:29 pm He's got the courage of his convictions, I'll give him that.
A hearty +1. I don't agree with a lot of what he subscribes to but I'd sit at the table with him and I'd respect him. I've never seen anything to lead me to believe his walk isn't honest and thought out nor that his highest ambition isn't to serve the Union.
Holman wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:36 pm He seems to be on the way to being primaried out. His right-wing challenger leads by 16 points.
I haven't kept up but assuming it's true, how very sad. I keep hoping. I keep seeing bright spots. Then I see you say this. My poor state. My poor nation.
One of the many problems we have is that due to the primary system representatives / senators are accountable not only to the electorate of their state, but also to the primary electorate of their party in their state. And at the moment the GOP primary electorate is completely fucking bonkers.
Black Lives Matter.
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LordMortis
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis »

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:06 pm One of the many problems we have is that due to the primary system representatives / senators are accountable not only to the electorate of their state, but also to the primary electorate of their party in their state. And at the moment the GOP primary electorate is completely fucking bonkers.
And having read a bit since Holman's post, the suggestion is also that Trump is working with the RNC to oust him and the DeVos pulled their backing for him, switching from funding to funding attacks. All of that means little to me. Amash is a gold bit of circuitry in the refuse of the GOP. If they pick him out after showing him such faith then what's left of me finding empathy and even a tiny bit of respect for claims "small government" republicans gets snuffed. It's hard to both respect him and want to see the GOP burnt to the ground. I guess him losing would reduce that conflict.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Remus West »

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:36 pm He seems to be on the way to being primaried out. His right-wing challenger leads by 16 points.
That 16 point lead is amoung Republicans. Michigan is an open primary State. I haven't seen numbers of how he polls within the general population but I
to assume he gains a lot from non-RW nutjobs being counted.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis »

Remus West wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:23 pm
Holman wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:36 pm He seems to be on the way to being primaried out. His right-wing challenger leads by 16 points.
That 16 point lead is amoung Republicans. Michigan is an open primary State. I haven't seen numbers of how he polls within the general population but I
to assume he gains a lot from non-RW nutjobs being counted.
It's open in that you can vote in any primary but you can't vote in multiple primaries. So if you are part of his district and not GOP, you'd only be voting for GOP primaries. That's not a bad option (and one I would jump on) but it's something you would have to think of doing.
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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Democratic debate 'groups' announced. 20 candidates qualified for the first debate, so they split them at random between two nights:

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant »

Warren's the only one of the top 5 to be in the second group, which could give her more potential to do well (if more focus is on her, or if the other candidates seem minor by comparison), but I would think more people are likely to watch the first group than the second group.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:19 pm Warren's the only one of the top 5 to be in the second group, which could give her more potential to do well (if more focus is on her, or if the other candidates seem minor by comparison), but I would think more people are likely to watch the first group than the second group.
Yeah, I would think that she and the other people near but behind Biden would want to be in Biden's group, as they want to position themselves to benefit if/when Biden's support collapses.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Any explanation for how these groups were determined? Seems odd for Warren to be grouped in the first section considering she seems to be consistently polling in 2nd or 3rd.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:29 pm Any explanation for how these groups were determined? Seems odd for Warren to be grouped in the first section considering she seems to be consistently polling in 2nd or 3rd.
They were randomly drawn.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:37 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:29 pm Any explanation for how these groups were determined? Seems odd for Warren to be grouped in the first section considering she seems to be consistently polling in 2nd or 3rd.
They were randomly drawn.
FWIW I do think that the RNC 2016 approach (divide them by polling, so creating a varsity and JV debate) makes more sense than the DNC's "random draw" approach. Those that the polls suggest are the public's current first choices should be side by side so that the public can compare them to each other.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by rittchard »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:39 pm
Defiant wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:37 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:29 pm Any explanation for how these groups were determined? Seems odd for Warren to be grouped in the first section considering she seems to be consistently polling in 2nd or 3rd.
They were randomly drawn.
FWIW I do think that the RNC 2016 approach (divide them by polling, so creating a varsity and JV debate) makes more sense than the DNC's "random draw" approach. Those that the polls suggest are the public's current first choices should be side by side so that the public can compare them to each other.
I agree - although if they did it purely like that, the first night would essentially be of zero interest. I believe it wasn't 100% random, though. I think they did split into higher and lower polling groups and then did the random draw from there.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant »

Sanders is desperate.



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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

Defiant wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:18 am Sanders is desperate.
Yeah. This is why Democrats hate Sanders. There was a *lot* of conspiracy-mongering during 2016, and Sanders never disavowed any of it. He even allowed his California delegates to enter the *convention* believing that he could still be the nominee.

I saw one or two polls recently where Warren has passed Sanders in the 18-34 age demo, which is the only strength he ever had. If that holds, he's done, and he'd better get his ass out of the way.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis »

Defiant wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:18 am

He's making my 2016 support of him in the primaries in to a source of shame. Equating Warren with Corporate Democrats against progressive law making is flat out insane. How can you possibly make the leap and make it against the one senator who supported your bid? And do it at a time Oligarch republicans are burning down the rule of law? After you couldn't beat HRC it became time to sit down. Showing your insanity like this not only embarrasses you, it embarrasses the people who stood in your corner.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Smoove_B »

I'm still unclear regarding his party affiliation. He seems to be trying to use the Democratic party as a way to horn in on the popularity of our bi-partisan insanity (knowing an Independent candidate is DOA) but I never got the sense he's truly a card-carrying member.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am I'm still unclear regarding his party affiliation. He seems to be trying to use the Democratic party as a way to horn in on the popularity of our bi-partisan insanity (knowing an Independent candidate is DOA) but I never got the sense he's truly a card-carrying member.
He's not and I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with pretending to have the best interests of the country in mind when to stroke your ego while you do more harm than good. (Note I am not a card carrying member so making card carrying a thing is a problem for me)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

LordMortis wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:38 am
Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am I'm still unclear regarding his party affiliation. He seems to be trying to use the Democratic party as a way to horn in on the popularity of our bi-partisan insanity (knowing an Independent candidate is DOA) but I never got the sense he's truly a card-carrying member.
He's not and I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with pretending to have the best interests of the country in mind when to stroke your ego while you do more harm than good. (Note I am not a card carrying member so making card carrying a thing is a problem for me)
Yeah, but it's absurd of him to complain that the party apparatus doesn't support him when he's not even willing to call himself a member.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:17 am
LordMortis wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:38 am
Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am I'm still unclear regarding his party affiliation. He seems to be trying to use the Democratic party as a way to horn in on the popularity of our bi-partisan insanity (knowing an Independent candidate is DOA) but I never got the sense he's truly a card-carrying member.
He's not and I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with pretending to have the best interests of the country in mind when to stroke your ego while you do more harm than good. (Note I am not a card carrying member so making card carrying a thing is a problem for me)
Yeah, but it's absurd of him to complain that the party apparatus doesn't support him when he's not even willing to call himself a member.
It's also kind of bizarre because it wouldn't take much to make nice with the party. Basically claim victory - "since 2016 the party has adopted many / most of my positions, so now we're good."
Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant »

Ironically....

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