Octopus Overlords

Holman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:46 pm Oh, hey, it looks like Michael Bloomburg is considering a presidential run to prevent the election of... Elizabeth Warren.

Billionaires will burn the country to the ground before they give *anything* back.

Man, a billionaire entering the race specifically to run against her would be such a political gift to Elizabeth Warren.

I agree with Rick here. It is sort of infuriating how bad the Democrats are at messaging. Instead with have Hunter Biden on tv pouring gas on the fire on the night of a Democratic debate. This is not the time for the Democratic party fractures to emerge to steal defeat again. This is also another massive strike against Biden. He and his campaign are resposnding in idiotic fashion to the Ukraine scandal.

I think Harry Reid said it best in a recent interview:

“I don't think he's intellectually a powerhouse, but I think he's basically a very, very smart man. No matter what the subject, any argument he involves himself in, it's on his terms. You're always arguing against him," said Reid, adding that Democratic candidates cannot underestimate Trump going forward.

If you engage Trump at his level, you had better damn well cross all your t's and dot all your i's. And even then, there's a good chance it will blow up in your face. Trump is a master at speaking to idiots.

Biden could be saturating free media with interviews and taking a personal fight to Trump while he's in the spotlight. Maybe he recognizes that he isn't good at speaking off-script and is avoiding a lot of "gotcha" opportunities, but a better politician would milk this for all it's worth.

Look at what's going on with the impeachment process. Trump has spun it so that Biden has been on the defensive since the story broke. Facts be damned. This is where he excels. I honestly can't think of an effective countermeasure to someone this bereft of integrity. Pointing that shortcoming out does absolutely nothing in the eyes of the GOP political machine and his base. And the constant barrage of outright and often outrageous lies drowns out any attempt at getting the truth to the independent voting sector.

I don't think Trump's a genius. I just think he's willing to do whatever it takes to win...even if it means we all lose. He will lie, cheat and harass to get what he wants. And if you stoop to his level, he'll just grab a shovel and dig deeper. I doubt he has any bottom at this point.

The way to stop tRump is to threaten his wealth. If you had a real threat to his wealth he would do whatever you wanted to preserve it.

It's really hard to win against people who don't play by the rules. The GOP is willing to flout the rules of conventional political warfare because they know their opponent won't do the same.

That said, all the energy Trump and Biden are expending against each other is fine by me. Let them beat each other up while Warren quietly takes the nomination.

hepcat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:15 pm Look at what's going on with the impeachment process. Trump has spun it so that Biden has been on the defensive since the story broke. Facts be damned. This is where he excels. I honestly can't think of an effective countermeasure to someone this bereft of integrity. Pointing that shortcoming out does absolutely nothing in the eyes of the GOP political machine and his base. And the constant barrage of outright and often outrageous lies drowns out any attempt at getting the truth to the independent voting sector.

How could we know? They are not even trying. It is.beyond pathetic.

I don't think Trump's a genius. I just think he's willing to do whatever it takes to win...even if it means we all lose. He will lie, cheat and harass to get what he wants. And if you stoop to his level, he'll just grab a shovel and dig deeper. I doubt he has any bottom at this point.

You dont have to stoop. You have to amplify the signal. Instead you have the idiotic Biden camp taking actions and making statements that look like they legitimize the lies. It is hard to believe that these guys are this incompetent but this has been a Democrat weakness for years. They are not as responsible for mess but they sure as hell own part of it with constant blunders like this.

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:55 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:15 pm Look at what's going on with the impeachment process. Trump has spun it so that Biden has been on the defensive since the story broke. Facts be damned. This is where he excels. I honestly can't think of an effective countermeasure to someone this bereft of integrity. Pointing that shortcoming out does absolutely nothing in the eyes of the GOP political machine and his base. And the constant barrage of outright and often outrageous lies drowns out any attempt at getting the truth to the independent voting sector.

How could we know? They are not even trying. It is.beyond pathetic.

They're trying. The entire impeachment process is proof of that.

he'll just grab a shovel and dig deeper. I doubt he has any bottom at this point

He's gonna bust hell wide open and make a crater.

At this point I would not bet against a Trump 2nd term.

At this point I wouldn't be willing to lay odds for anything. We no longer have precedent to look back on.

hepcat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:08 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:55 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:15 pm Look at what's going on with the impeachment process. Trump has spun it so that Biden has been on the defensive since the story broke. Facts be damned. This is where he excels. I honestly can't think of an effective countermeasure to someone this bereft of integrity. Pointing that shortcoming out does absolutely nothing in the eyes of the GOP political machine and his base. And the constant barrage of outright and often outrageous lies drowns out any attempt at getting the truth to the independent voting sector.

How could we know? They are not even trying. It is.beyond pathetic.

They're trying. The entire impeachment process is proof of that.

I do not disagree that is something but there are multiple theatres to this war. They had a gift horse land in their lap. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be waging war elsewhere. Also I dont know how much credit they get for finally getting a spine to pursue impeachment considering what they were handed.

My comments are more towards what they are doing with the information they are learning. The Republicans are carpet bombing the sky with disinformation and the Democrat answer is to lean into it? It is pure weakness and lack of imagination.

I tried to watch some of the debates but couldn't stand it. All they do is try to squeeze in stuff thats me me me. I did this so im a good person I saw this and Im a good person. Yawn. Sorry lost interest. I hate politics. Its all talking points and bullet points. No substance.

For me it is hard to treat this clown car seriously. Tom Steyer is basically there because he is a billionaire. Tulsi is dropping Trump talking points. Many of these folks have no chance but are stealing air time from someone who matters. We desperately need focus and unamity of voice and that is months away at a critical time. Worse one of them is going to say something stupid and take the focus off Trump.

It also makes me cringe to watch these guys beating each other up when I'd literally vote for one of their podiums over Trump.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:30 pm It also makes me cringe to watch these guys beating each other up when I'd literally vote for one of their podiums over Trump.

This debate is especially hard to watch because there are too many candidates on stage and the moderators are trying to create dramatic personal conflicts rather than pursue policy questions.

eh, I don't mind so much when they vigorously go after each other. There's a lot of time before Nov. 2020; the impact of a hard attack in October 2019 is low, as compared with the benefit of seeing how a potential nominee responds to aggressive attacks.

There are too many people, though; a debate with the top 5 or 6 candidates in the polls would be way more useful.

Ya felt like there should be 5. Might as well even remove Bernie at this point with age and health issues.

I just dont think America is smart enough to vote Trump out instead of in.

Daehawk wrote:I just dont think America is smart enough to vote Trump out instead of in.

It's not a question of smartness, it's a question of motivation. If every person who currently gives Trump a negative approval would get off their ass and vote, the Dems would have an overwhelmingly lopsided victory even if Trump's entire base showed up.

Lest we forget, 3 million more people in this country voted for Hillary than Trump. We have the numbers.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:30 pm It also makes me cringe to watch these guys beating each other up when I'd literally vote for one of their podiums over Trump.

You understand that they're competing with one another for a shot at the brass ring, right? It's a wonder we don't see more sharp elbows than we do. Unity comes after the primaries...we hope.

I would vote for anybody on that stage over Trump...even the ones who shouldn't have been on that stage. During one of the breaks I checked off the portraits at the bottom of the screen, and came up with six that I want to hear more from.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:55 pm

Daehawk wrote:I just dont think America is smart enough to vote Trump out instead of in.

It's not a question of smartness, it's a question of motivation. If every person who currently gives Trump a negative approval would get off their ass and vote, the Dems would have an overwhelmingly lopsided victory even if Trump's entire base showed up.

Lest we forget, 3 million more people in this country voted for Hillary than Trump. We have the numbers.

Well, it's also a question of the electoral authorities in a number of red states intentionally putting up barriers to keep Democratic voters from voting.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:44 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:55 pm

Daehawk wrote:I just dont think America is smart enough to vote Trump out instead of in.

It's not a question of smartness, it's a question of motivation. If every person who currently gives Trump a negative approval would get off their ass and vote, the Dems would have an overwhelmingly lopsided victory even if Trump's entire base showed up.

Lest we forget, 3 million more people in this country voted for Hillary than Trump. We have the numbers.

Well, it's also a question of the electoral authorities in a number of red states intentionally putting up barriers to keep Democratic voters from voting.

It’s also that annoying thing, the Electoral College. I’m tired of hearing people talk about 3 million more votes. The Dems could get 10 million more motivated votes from CA and NYC and it wouldn’t make a bit of difference.

Ugh.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib to endorse Bernie Sanders for president:

The backing of three of the four "squad" members, with Ocasio-Cortez expected to formally announce her endorsement at a Sanders rally Saturday in New York City, is a welcome boost for the Sanders campaign, which has gone to great lengths to win over voters of color and create the kind of diverse coalition that mostly eluded it in 2016. Whether their support will sway progressive voters, who according to recent polls have been drifting toward Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, is less clear.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:41 am Ugh.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib to endorse Bernie Sanders for president:

The backing of three of the four "squad" members, with Ocasio-Cortez expected to formally announce her endorsement at a Sanders rally Saturday in New York City, is a welcome boost for the Sanders campaign, which has gone to great lengths to win over voters of color and create the kind of diverse coalition that mostly eluded it in 2016. Whether their support will sway progressive voters, who according to recent polls have been drifting toward Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, is less clear.

Yeah. Ugh is right.

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:17 pm

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:30 pm It also makes me cringe to watch these guys beating each other up when I'd literally vote for one of their podiums over Trump.

You understand that they're competing with one another for a shot at the brass ring, right? It's a wonder we don't see more sharp elbows than we do. Unity comes after the primaries...we hope.

I would vote for anybody on that stage over Trump...even the ones who shouldn't have been on that stage. During one of the breaks I checked off the portraits at the bottom of the screen, and came up with six that I want to hear more from.

You'd even vote for Tulsi Gabbard, who's likely in the bag for Putin?

pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:47 am

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:17 pm

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:30 pm It also makes me cringe to watch these guys beating each other up when I'd literally vote for one of their podiums over Trump.

You understand that they're competing with one another for a shot at the brass ring, right? It's a wonder we don't see more sharp elbows than we do. Unity comes after the primaries...we hope.

I would vote for anybody on that stage over Trump...even the ones who shouldn't have been on that stage. During one of the breaks I checked off the portraits at the bottom of the screen, and came up with six that I want to hear more from.

You'd even vote for Tulsi Gabbard, who's likely in the bag for Putin?

"Likely in the bag" is better than "definitely in the bag," so yes, I would.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:46 am

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:41 am Ugh.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib to endorse Bernie Sanders for president:

The backing of three of the four "squad" members, with Ocasio-Cortez expected to formally announce her endorsement at a Sanders rally Saturday in New York City, is a welcome boost for the Sanders campaign, which has gone to great lengths to win over voters of color and create the kind of diverse coalition that mostly eluded it in 2016. Whether their support will sway progressive voters, who according to recent polls have been drifting toward Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, is less clear.

Yeah. Ugh is right.

I mean, this is what we would've expected, right? Only question would be him or Warren.

I think this is slightly good news for Biden, because it would be great for him if Sanders gained a couple points at Warren's expense, but I doubt the overall impact of this is going to be significant.

...and yet, if they endorsed Warren it might have been enough to stop this circus and let the (D) party start focusing on unity behind a single candidate instead of the pot-shots we saw last night that only serve to weaken the overall effort. Bernie Sanders 2020? Really? Joe Biden 2020? Really? Bernie literally had a heart attack last week and listening to Joe Biden talk is like hearing your well-intentioned uncle speak at Thanksgiving. He's not racist, but his entirety of life experiences is from a bygone era. All his stories have you wondering if he's 10 words away from referring to someone as "that colored boy" or saying something cringe-worthy about a woman. As stated by others, the (D) party could nominate a chimp and I'm going to vote (D), but they're really going out of their way here to make this as difficult as possible.

But this will all be forgotten once the real battle is waged. Presumably Bernie will back the eventual ticket.

Dems killing themselves yet again. We have nothing in this race Im afraid. Might as well tattoo red MAGA caps on your heads now. Art of the Dictator is coming.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:02 am

pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:46 am

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:41 am Ugh.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib to endorse Bernie Sanders for president:

The backing of three of the four "squad" members, with Ocasio-Cortez expected to formally announce her endorsement at a Sanders rally Saturday in New York City, is a welcome boost for the Sanders campaign, which has gone to great lengths to win over voters of color and create the kind of diverse coalition that mostly eluded it in 2016. Whether their support will sway progressive voters, who according to recent polls have been drifting toward Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, is less clear.

Yeah. Ugh is right.

I mean, this is what we would've expected, right? Only question would be him or Warren.

I think this is slightly good news for Biden, because it would be great for him if Sanders gained a couple points at Warren's expense, but I doubt the overall impact of this is going to be significant.

It would have been awful for Biden or Warren had they garnered the support of the "squad". Trump and the GOP has worked overtime to push the narrative that they are socialists out to destroy America at any cost. While their support wouldn't have made a lick of difference to the majority of the GOP/Trump supporters out there, it might make a fence sitter think twice.

Essentially, I think their support has sealed Sander's fate. He's out, in my opinion.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:11 am But this will all be forgotten once the real battle is waged. Presumably Bernie will back the eventual ticket.

Yeah, but I worry about a repeat of 2016, where Bernie drags things out long after the outcome is clear, and leans somewhat into 'rigging' allegations, leading his more ardent supporters to disrupt the convention and refuse to play ball.

Kurth wrote:It’s also that annoying thing, the Electoral College. I’m tired of hearing people talk about 3 million more votes. The Dems could get 10 million more motivated votes from CA and NYC and it wouldn’t make a bit of difference.

Turnout is turnout. Clinton lost her key states by mere thousands of votes. The point stands - if the 40% of voting-age population who didn't vote in 2016 would vote in 2020, Trump would be a non-issue.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:35 pm

Kurth wrote:It’s also that annoying thing, the Electoral College. I’m tired of hearing people talk about 3 million more votes. The Dems could get 10 million more motivated votes from CA and NYC and it wouldn’t make a bit of difference.

Turnout is turnout. Clinton lost her key states by mere thousands of votes. The point stands - if the 40% of voting-age population who didn't vote in 2016 would vote in 2020, Trump would be a non-issue.

Presumably the Dems will do a better job targeting their campaigning efforts. They don't need to rally that entire 40% (unless I suppose they are trying to pitch a shut-out and flip even the reddest of the redneck Magamonkey states); they only need to energize a few percent of the apathetic undecideds. It would also be helpful for them combine dog-whistle campaign adds with early/absentee voting propaganda as the election draws near, particularly in foul-weather swing states where environmental conditions could demotivate people from leaving their homes on election day.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:11 am But this will all be forgotten once the real battle is waged. Presumably Bernie will back the eventual ticket.

It was presumed he would back Clinton too but his half-assed "endorsement" (along with the kerfluffle regarding the debates) caused a good portion of his supporters to stay home. I even know a few of the more idiotic ones that voted tRump.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:35 pm
Turnout is turnout. Clinton lost her key states by mere thousands of votes. The point stands - if the 40% of voting-age population who didn't vote in 2016 would vote in 2020, Trump would be a non-issue.

It would help if they all voted, but I imagine that it would bump up the democratic candidate a few points, probably not enough to make Trump a non-issue. Plenty of non-voters support Trump.

hepcat wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:21 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:02 am

pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:46 am

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:41 am Ugh.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib to endorse Bernie Sanders for president:

The backing of three of the four "squad" members, with Ocasio-Cortez expected to formally announce her endorsement at a Sanders rally Saturday in New York City, is a welcome boost for the Sanders campaign, which has gone to great lengths to win over voters of color and create the kind of diverse coalition that mostly eluded it in 2016. Whether their support will sway progressive voters, who according to recent polls have been drifting toward Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, is less clear.

Yeah. Ugh is right.

I mean, this is what we would've expected, right? Only question would be him or Warren.

I think this is slightly good news for Biden, because it would be great for him if Sanders gained a couple points at Warren's expense, but I doubt the overall impact of this is going to be significant.

It would have been awful for Biden or Warren had they garnered the support of the "squad". Trump and the GOP has worked overtime to push the narrative that they are socialists out to destroy America at any cost. While their support wouldn't have made a lick of difference to the majority of the GOP/Trump supporters out there, it might make a fence sitter think twice.

Essentially, I think their support has sealed Sander's fate. He's out, in my opinion.

It's becoming apparent that Warren will be the standard-bearer for the progressive wing. The moderate wing's champion is not yet evident; Joe's holding on, but he's wobbly, and this morning's reports say that he's nearly out of money. And after each faction lines up behind one candidate, neither one is going to take down the other before the primaries. Those of you wishing they would just be nice to each other are in for a disappointment. Democracy is a competition, and (in the US, at least) it takes a long time. Seems like forever, sometimes.

One of the biggest predictors of voting behavior is education. Educated people vote in high numbers, and more so as they mature past college. Less-educated people vote less, often because they're so low-information that they don't even know how to register or because they're overworked enough not to pay attention to the news. Those are high barriers to behavior.

My wife and I do a lot of door-to-door canvassing at election time, and the people who give us the "I don't vote"/"I don't care"/"They're all crooks" line are invariably (if my discerning eye can be trusted) uneducated.

Dems win when turnout (even turnout on both sides) among typical voters is high. Barring special circumstances, 2020 looks to be one of those elections.

Kraken wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:48 pm

It's becoming apparent that Warren will be the standard-bearer for the progressive wing. The moderate wing's champion is not yet evident; Joe's holding on, but he's wobbly, and this morning's reports say that he's nearly out of money. And after each faction lines up behind one candidate, neither one is going to take down the other before the primaries. Those of you wishing they would just be nice to each other are in for a disappointment. Democracy is a competition, and (in the US, at least) it takes a long time. Seems like forever, sometimes.

Biden is not wobbly.

To a first approximation, though, Biden’s numbers have been quite steady. Other than a post-announcement bounce, when he briefly surged to near 40 percent, he’s been somewhere between 26 percent and 32 percent in the RCP average for literally the entire campaign:

There's actually a non-trivial number of parallels between Trump in the 2016 GOP primary and Biden in the Democratic 2020 primary, in that the media / pundits assume that his support is weak, and talk about that as if his support is falling, without really addressing steady support numbers in polling. Not to compare to two overall, but just in terms of the media dynamic.

At this point I think it's pretty clear that Biden is the moderate wing candidate unless and until he completely implodes. Klobuchar seems to be getting a lot of attention post-debate, so we'll see if she makes any gains (which would likely come at Biden's expense), but I'd be shocked if Biden wasn't the clear moderate wing candidate at least through the early primary states.