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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:33 am
I don't know if I agree that no one is enthusiastic/passionate about Biden - he did really, really well in.. was it South Carolina like five hundred years ago? in a very, very crowded field, and so while he was like my fourth or fifth choice, I don't like to assume my experience is true for everyone (he did have a lead during most of the primary). But what is true, that that tweet shows, is that even if not many people are enthusiastic about him, a lot of people like him and few really dislike him because he's a good person, including the different wings of the Democratic party (Sanders likes him, for example), and even some Republicans (in the past, anyway) have said he's a good person.
Yeah, there is a degree to which "Biden doesn't have strong supporters!" is a reflection of "Biden doesn't have strong supporters on twitter". He's especially strong among African-American voters (particularly older African American voters), for example.

But there's also a degree to which people are thinking of enthusiasm in only positive terms (how much people love candidate X) vs. negative terms (how much people hate candidate Y). Including both of those gives Biden a significant enthusiasm advantage.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:47 am
Defiant wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:33 am
I don't know if I agree that no one is enthusiastic/passionate about Biden - he did really, really well in.. was it South Carolina like five hundred years ago? in a very, very crowded field, and so while he was like my fourth or fifth choice, I don't like to assume my experience is true for everyone (he did have a lead during most of the primary). But what is true, that that tweet shows, is that even if not many people are enthusiastic about him, a lot of people like him and few really dislike him because he's a good person, including the different wings of the Democratic party (Sanders likes him, for example), and even some Republicans (in the past, anyway) have said he's a good person.
Yeah, there is a degree to which "Biden doesn't have strong supporters!" is a reflection of "Biden doesn't have strong supporters on twitter". He's especially strong among African-American voters (particularly older African American voters), for example.

But there's also a degree to which people are thinking of enthusiasm in only positive terms (how much people love candidate X) vs. negative terms (how much people hate candidate Y). Including both of those gives Biden a significant enthusiasm advantage.
I also think the left graph and right graphs are telling different stories. Left shows within their "committed" voting populations and the right shows overall across all voters. So on the right the enthusiastic for their candidate will be offset by enthusiasm for the opponent. That is pretty much modern American politics in a nutshell. What it says to me that even with someone as unsuitable as Trump, the opponent will more than likely still only get 'meh' overall ratings. That makes Obama an outlier tbh. He drove a lot of enthusiasm.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Jaymann »

Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Jaymann
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by malchior »

Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am
Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am
Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.
More than that, the electoral math is such that it's almost impossible to wind up with a scenario where Biden wins but the GOP retakes the House.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:22 am
More than that, the electoral math is such that it's almost impossible to wind up with a scenario where Biden wins but the GOP retakes the House.
2020 wrote: Challenge Accepted

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Jaymann »

malchior wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am
Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.
Can't they file with a minority?
Jaymann
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by malchior »

Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:56 am
malchior wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am
Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.
Can't they file with a minority?
They can try to introduce anything but they wouldn't even get to an impeachment inquiry without a majority.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Fireball »

Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:56 am
malchior wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am
Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.
Can't they file with a minority?
You can file anything you want as a member of Congress. But something like that won't be given even a courtesy committee hearing.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:56 am
malchior wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am
Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.
Can't they file with a minority?
They can submit Articles of Impeachment, but I think Pelosi could decide whether or not they come up for a vote or not. And even if they did come to a vote, with a Democratic majority there's zero chance of a successful vote to impeach Biden.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by noxiousdog »

Current Polling has Trump ahead of Biden in Texas by less than 1%. Interesting, while polling had Cruz way ahead, he only won by 2.6%. Not a single poll had it that close.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Emerson was close enough given the use of whole numbers.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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noxiousdog wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:33 pm
Current Polling has Trump ahead of Biden in Texas by less than 1%.
Don't tease me.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Zaxxon wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:47 pm
noxiousdog wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:33 pm
Current Polling has Trump ahead of Biden in Texas by less than 1%.
Don't tease me.
Texas doesn't matter. If Biden wins Texas (which he's got a shot at), then he'll be winning in enough other states that Texas won't be decisive. It would be great in terms of establishing the narrative of a Biden blowout that would serve as a cautionary tale to parties considering embracing Trump-like figures in the future, but not much in terms of who will be the next president.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Remus West »

Texas is important because if Biden wins but the Senate does not flip then the Turtle will simply spend four more years preventing anything from being done as a holding pattern to try again for full authoritarianism in 2024.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Zaxxon »

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:01 pm
Zaxxon wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:47 pm
noxiousdog wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:33 pm
Current Polling has Trump ahead of Biden in Texas by less than 1%.
Don't tease me.
Texas doesn't matter. If Biden wins Texas (which he's got a shot at), then he'll be winning in enough other states that Texas won't be decisive. It would be great in terms of establishing the narrative of a Biden blowout that would serve as a cautionary tale to parties considering embracing Trump-like figures in the future, but not much in terms of who will be the next president.
Texas matters because if Biden wins there, nothing else matters. We just said the same thing, but in different ways. :)

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Remus West wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:13 pm
Texas is important because if Biden wins but the Senate does not flip then the Turtle will simply spend four more years preventing anything from being done as a holding pattern to try again for full authoritarianism in 2024.
Oh yeah, I just meant that it's unimportant in terms of who will be the next president.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Kraken »

Forcing the GOP to spend bigly to hold onto TX is a victory in itself.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Jeff V »

Kraken wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:47 pm
Forcing the GOP to spend bigly to hold onto TX is a victory in itself.
They couldn't rid themselves of that ass clown Cruz, though, so the stupid is strong there. Maybe enough covidiots will die and make a difference, though.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Is it possible to give an Emmy to political ads? Or Oscars - not sure which? I assume that they can win Cleos, at least?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Max Peck »

I believe they'd settle for winning some elections.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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El Guapo wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:07 pm


Is it possible to give an Emmy to political ads? Or Oscars - not sure which? I assume that they can win Cleos, at least?
I mean the "unprecedented" part is certainly true in so many ways...
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

The Cook Political Report posts an update, which shifts predictions of 20 House seats in the direction of Democrats
For the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance at gaining House seats as Republicans on a net basis.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Isgrimnur »

Holman wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 2:50 pm


Justin Amash calls it off.
Politico
Rep. Justin Amash, the Libertarian Michigan congressman who abandoned the Republican Party after calling for President Donald Trump’s impeachment, appeared to confirm reports Thursday that he would not seek reelection to Congress.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Eliot Engel has lost his primary to Jamaal Bowman, signaling the end of Engel's time in Congress since 1989.
Hodor.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by hepcat »

I’ve been getting emails from the Trump campaign asking me to donate lately. 3 so far. I just keep replying with “BIDEN 2020!”.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am
My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.
I know that in Pennsylvania ballots won't be sent out to voters until September.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 am
El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am
My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.
I know that in Pennsylvania ballots won't be sent out to voters until September.
They're also doing mail in ballots for the Senate primary (Markey vs. Kennedy), which is Sept. 1st, so those ballots will have to get here sooner.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:39 am
Holman wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 am
El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am
My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.
I know that in Pennsylvania ballots won't be sent out to voters until September.
They're also doing mail in ballots for the Senate primary (Markey vs. Kennedy), which is Sept. 1st, so those ballots will have to get here sooner.
Ah. Didn't know you were talking primary.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:43 am
El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:39 am
Holman wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 am
El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am
My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.
I know that in Pennsylvania ballots won't be sent out to voters until September.
They're also doing mail in ballots for the Senate primary (Markey vs. Kennedy), which is Sept. 1st, so those ballots will have to get here sooner.
Ah. Didn't know you were talking primary.
Well, both - the application was for primary and general.

Anyway, also made me appreciate living in a sane state, where the response to the coronavirus includes automatic mail in ballot applications plus extended early voting. Which is not unique to Massachusetts, but it's not the universal response.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:57 am
Anyway, also made me appreciate living in a sane state, where the response to the coronavirus includes automatic mail in ballot applications plus extended early voting. Which is not unique to Massachusetts, but it's not the universal response.
It's a start, but you can aspire to eventually reach Colorado level, where everyone just gets an actual ballot in the mail. It's rather insane that in 2020 this isn't just how it works everywhere.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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stessier wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:52 am
I applied to be a county poll manager today (they have a number of openings). If I'm turned down for that for whatever reason, I'll apply to be just a poll worker. Most of these positions are historically filled by retired people in my area, so this is my attempt to make sure we have as many polling places as possible open in November. My wife and I discussed the likely health risks given our area is already the hottest spot in our state and think this is one of those times that it's worth it.
Got a survey today making sure I was available to work and attend the in person training sessions. Should hear back in about 3 weeks. In person training is sometime between 9/8 and 10/24. The election is 11/3, so they might be cutting it a bit close at the end there.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:03 pm
stessier wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:52 am
I applied to be a county poll manager today (they have a number of openings). If I'm turned down for that for whatever reason, I'll apply to be just a poll worker. Most of these positions are historically filled by retired people in my area, so this is my attempt to make sure we have as many polling places as possible open in November. My wife and I discussed the likely health risks given our area is already the hottest spot in our state and think this is one of those times that it's worth it.
Got a survey today making sure I was available to work and attend the in person training sessions. Should hear back in about 3 weeks. In person training is sometime between 9/8 and 10/24. The election is 11/3, so they might be cutting it a bit close at the end there.
Kudos to you for doing this.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

Because the primary isn't going to end without some drama...
A revolt is brewing among Bernie Sanders delegates three weeks from the Democratic National Convention.

More than 360 delegates, most of whom back Sanders, have signed on to a pledge to vote against the Democratic Party’s platform if it does not include support for "Medicare for All," the petition’s organizers told POLITICO. They argue that single-payer health care is an urgent priority amid a worldwide pandemic and the biggest unemployment crisis since the Great Depression.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/2 ... yer-381972

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Zaxxon »

Defiant wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:57 am
They argue that single-payer health care is an urgent priority amid a worldwide pandemic and the biggest unemployment crisis since the Great Depression, and they would like to reduce their chances of seeing M4A implemented by raising the odds of a Trump re-election.
FTFT.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by malchior »

I'm not familiar with this aspect of the DNC. If they vote against the platform...wouldn't the platform still get adopted? Or are they trying to show unanimity?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Remus West »

Have I mentioned how much I HATE the majority of Bernie supporters? They sit here during a time when the Dems need desperately to project strength and unity against a party and man who seem to be openly working towards the end of Democracy in America and they want to cause problems because their bread isn't buttered properly.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by YellowKing »

Remus West wrote:Have I mentioned how much I HATE the majority of Bernie supporters?
Yeah I have a buddy that is in his early 20s that was a die-hard Bernie supporter, and he spends a lot of time trashing Biden on Facebook. I'm not sure to what end. And I'm not talking "Biden's not progressive enough" type trashing, but more like "Biden is a sexual predator" type stuff.

I've made the argument to him multiple times that getting Trump out of office is more important than any progressive agenda at the moment, and it just falls on deaf ears. It's seemingly like he'd rather the entire country burn to the ground than put in someone who isn't as progressive as he is. To me that's the ultimate cutting off your nose to spite your face, but whatever.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by malchior »

Remus West wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:07 am
Have I mentioned how much I HATE the majority of Bernie supporters? They sit here during a time when the Dems need desperately to project strength and unity against a party and man who seem to be openly working towards the end of Democracy in America and they want to cause problems because their bread isn't buttered properly.
I mostly agree but major healthcare reform is very, very popular. And it isn't unreasonable that they don't trust the centrists on this anymore after 10 years of the ACA.

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