Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:47 am**

Defiant wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:33 am I don't know if I agree that no one is enthusiastic/passionate about Biden - he did really, really well in.. was it South Carolina like five hundred years ago? in a very, very crowded field, and so while he was like my fourth or fifth choice, I don't like to assume my experience is true for everyone (he did have a lead during most of the primary). But what is true, that that tweet shows, is that even if not many people are enthusiastic about him, a lot of people like him and few really dislike him because he's a good person, including the different wings of the Democratic party (Sanders likes him, for example), and even some Republicans (in the past, anyway) have said he's a good person.

Yeah, there is a degree to which "Biden doesn't have strong supporters!" is a reflection of "Biden doesn't have strong supporters on twitter". He's especially strong among African-American voters (particularly older African American voters), for example.

But there's also a degree to which people are thinking of enthusiasm in only positive terms (how much people love candidate X) vs. negative terms (how much people hate candidate Y). Including both of those gives Biden a significant enthusiasm advantage.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:58 am**

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:47 am
Defiant wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:33 am I don't know if I agree that no one is enthusiastic/passionate about Biden - he did really, really well in.. was it South Carolina like five hundred years ago? in a very, very crowded field, and so while he was like my fourth or fifth choice, I don't like to assume my experience is true for everyone (he did have a lead during most of the primary). But what is true, that that tweet shows, is that even if not many people are enthusiastic about him, a lot of people like him and few really dislike him because he's a good person, including the different wings of the Democratic party (Sanders likes him, for example), and even some Republicans (in the past, anyway) have said he's a good person.
Yeah, there is a degree to which "Biden doesn't have strong supporters!" is a reflection of "Biden doesn't have strong supporters on twitter". He's especially strong among African-American voters (particularly older African American voters), for example.

But there's also a degree to which people are thinking of enthusiasm in only positive terms (how much people love candidate X) vs. negative terms (how much people hate candidate Y). Including both of those gives Biden a significant enthusiasm advantage.

I also think the left graph and right graphs are telling different stories. Left shows within their "committed" voting populations and the right shows overall across all voters. So on the right the enthusiastic for their candidate will be offset by enthusiasm for the opponent. That is pretty much modern American politics in a nutshell. What it says to me that even with someone as unsuitable as Trump, the opponent will more than likely still only get 'meh' overall ratings. That makes Obama an outlier tbh. He drove a lot of enthusiasm.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am**

Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am**

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.

Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:22 am**

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.

More than that, the electoral math is such that it's almost impossible to wind up with a scenario where Biden wins but the GOP retakes the House.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:25 am**

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:22 am More than that, the electoral math is such that it's almost impossible to wind up with a scenario where Biden wins but the GOP retakes the House.

2020 wrote: Challenge Accepted

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:56 am**

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.

Can't they file with a minority?

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:58 am**

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:56 am
malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.
Can't they file with a minority?

They can try to introduce anything but they wouldn't even get to an impeachment inquiry without a majority.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:59 am**

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:56 am
malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.
Can't they file with a minority?

You can file anything you want as a member of Congress. But something like that won't be given even a courtesy committee hearing.

Posted: **Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:59 am**

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:56 am
malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:20 am
Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 am Biden's reach across the aisle will last precisely as long as it takes the Republicans to file Articles of Impeachment for something something Ukraine.
Luckily the chances of that are really small. If the House flips then the United States almost certainly dies quickly.
Can't they file with a minority?

They can submit Articles of Impeachment, but I think Pelosi could decide whether or not they come up for a vote or not. And even if they did come to a vote, with a Democratic majority there's zero chance of a successful vote to impeach Biden.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:33 pm**

Current Polling has Trump ahead of Biden in Texas by less than 1%. Interesting, while polling had Cruz way ahead, he only won by 2.6%. Not a single poll had it that close.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:35 pm**

Emerson was close enough given the use of whole numbers.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:47 pm**

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:33 pm Current Polling has Trump ahead of Biden in Texas by less than 1%.

Don't tease me.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:01 pm**

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:47 pm
noxiousdog wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:33 pm Current Polling has Trump ahead of Biden in Texas by less than 1%.
Don't tease me.

Texas doesn't matter. If Biden wins Texas (which he's got a shot at), then he'll be winning in enough other states that Texas won't be decisive. It would be great in terms of establishing the narrative of a Biden blowout that would serve as a cautionary tale to parties considering embracing Trump-like figures in the future, but not much in terms of who will be the next president.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:13 pm**

Texas is important because if Biden wins but the Senate does not flip then the Turtle will simply spend four more years preventing anything from being done as a holding pattern to try again for full authoritarianism in 2024.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:17 pm**

El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:01 pm
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:47 pm
noxiousdog wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:33 pm Current Polling has Trump ahead of Biden in Texas by less than 1%.
Don't tease me.
Texas doesn't matter. If Biden wins Texas (which he's got a shot at), then he'll be winning in enough other states that Texas won't be decisive. It would be great in terms of establishing the narrative of a Biden blowout that would serve as a cautionary tale to parties considering embracing Trump-like figures in the future, but not much in terms of who will be the next president.

Texas matters because if Biden wins there, nothing else matters. We just said the same thing, but in different ways.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:18 pm**

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:13 pm Texas is important because if Biden wins but the Senate does not flip then the Turtle will simply spend four more years preventing anything from being done as a holding pattern to try again for full authoritarianism in 2024.

Oh yeah, I just meant that it's unimportant in terms of who will be the next president.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:47 pm**

Forcing the GOP to spend bigly to hold onto TX is a victory in itself.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:52 pm**

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:47 pm Forcing the GOP to spend bigly to hold onto TX is a victory in itself.

They couldn't rid themselves of that ass clown Cruz, though, so the stupid is strong there. Maybe enough covidiots will die and make a difference, though.

Posted: **Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:07 pm**

Is it possible to give an Emmy to political ads? Or Oscars - not sure which? I assume that they can win Cleos, at least?

Posted: **Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:57 am**

I believe they'd settle for winning some elections.

Posted: **Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:59 am**

El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:07 pm

Is it possible to give an Emmy to political ads? Or Oscars - not sure which? I assume that they can win Cleos, at least?

I mean the "unprecedented" part is certainly true in so many ways...

Posted: **Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:15 am**

The Cook Political Report posts an update, which shifts predictions of 20 House seats in the direction of Democrats

For the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance at gaining House seats as Republicans on a net basis.

Posted: **Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:23 am**

Holman wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 2:50 pm

Justin Amash calls it off.

Politico

Rep. Justin Amash, the Libertarian Michigan congressman who abandoned the Republican Party after calling for President Donald Trump’s impeachment, appeared to confirm reports Thursday that he would not seek reelection to Congress.

Posted: **Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:42 am**

Eliot Engel has lost his primary to Jamaal Bowman, signaling the end of Engel's time in Congress since 1989.

Posted: **Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:36 pm**

I’ve been getting emails from the Trump campaign asking me to donate lately. 3 so far. I just keep replying with “BIDEN 2020!”.

Posted: **Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am**

My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.

Posted: **Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 am**

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.

I know that in Pennsylvania ballots won't be sent out to voters until September.

Posted: **Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:39 am**

Holman wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.
I know that in Pennsylvania ballots won't be sent out to voters until September.

They're also doing mail in ballots for the Senate primary (Markey vs. Kennedy), which is Sept. 1st, so those ballots will have to get here sooner.

Posted: **Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:43 am**

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:39 am
Holman wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.
I know that in Pennsylvania ballots won't be sent out to voters until September.
They're also doing mail in ballots for the Senate primary (Markey vs. Kennedy), which is Sept. 1st, so those ballots will have to get here sooner.

Ah. Didn't know you were talking primary.

Posted: **Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:57 am**

Holman wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:43 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:39 am
Holman wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:04 am My wife and I received our mail in ballot applications, which were sent to us automatically. Mailed them in this morning - curious when the ballots will arrive.
I know that in Pennsylvania ballots won't be sent out to voters until September.
They're also doing mail in ballots for the Senate primary (Markey vs. Kennedy), which is Sept. 1st, so those ballots will have to get here sooner.
Ah. Didn't know you were talking primary.

Well, both - the application was for primary and general.

Anyway, also made me appreciate living in a sane state, where the response to the coronavirus includes automatic mail in ballot applications plus extended early voting. Which is not unique to Massachusetts, but it's not the universal response.

Posted: **Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:00 pm**

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:57 amAnyway, also made me appreciate living in a sane state, where the response to the coronavirus includes automatic mail in ballot applications plus extended early voting. Which is not unique to Massachusetts, but it's not the universal response.

It's a start, but you can aspire to eventually reach Colorado level, where everyone just gets an actual ballot in the mail. It's rather insane that in 2020 this isn't just how it works everywhere.

Posted: **Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:03 pm**

stessier wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:52 am I applied to be a county poll manager today (they have a number of openings). If I'm turned down for that for whatever reason, I'll apply to be just a poll worker. Most of these positions are historically filled by retired people in my area, so this is my attempt to make sure we have as many polling places as possible open in November. My wife and I discussed the likely health risks given our area is already the hottest spot in our state and think this is one of those times that it's worth it.

Got a survey today making sure I was available to work and attend the in person training sessions. Should hear back in about 3 weeks. In person training is sometime between 9/8 and 10/24. The election is 11/3, so they might be cutting it a bit close at the end there.

Posted: **Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:17 pm**

stessier wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:03 pm
stessier wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:52 am I applied to be a county poll manager today (they have a number of openings). If I'm turned down for that for whatever reason, I'll apply to be just a poll worker. Most of these positions are historically filled by retired people in my area, so this is my attempt to make sure we have as many polling places as possible open in November. My wife and I discussed the likely health risks given our area is already the hottest spot in our state and think this is one of those times that it's worth it.
Got a survey today making sure I was available to work and attend the in person training sessions. Should hear back in about 3 weeks. In person training is sometime between 9/8 and 10/24. The election is 11/3, so they might be cutting it a bit close at the end there.

Kudos to you for doing this.

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:57 am**

Because the primary isn't going to end without some drama...

A revolt is brewing among Bernie Sanders delegates three weeks from the Democratic National Convention.

More than 360 delegates, most of whom back Sanders, have signed on to a pledge to vote against the Democratic Party’s platform if it does not include support for "Medicare for All," the petition’s organizers told POLITICO. They argue that single-payer health care is an urgent priority amid a worldwide pandemic and the biggest unemployment crisis since the Great Depression.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/2 ... yer-381972

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:00 am**

Defiant wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:57 amThey argue that single-payer health care is an urgent priority amid a worldwide pandemic and the biggest unemployment crisis since the Great Depression, and they would like to reduce their chances of seeing M4A implemented by raising the odds of a Trump re-election.

FTFT.

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:03 am**

I'm not familiar with this aspect of the DNC. If they vote against the platform...wouldn't the platform still get adopted? Or are they trying to show unanimity?

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:07 am**

Have I mentioned how much I HATE the majority of Bernie supporters? They sit here during a time when the Dems need desperately to project strength and unity against a party and man who seem to be openly working towards the end of Democracy in America and they want to cause problems because their bread isn't buttered properly.

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:24 am**

Remus West wrote:Have I mentioned how much I HATE the majority of Bernie supporters?

Yeah I have a buddy that is in his early 20s that was a die-hard Bernie supporter, and he spends a lot of time trashing Biden on Facebook. I'm not sure to what end. And I'm not talking "Biden's not progressive enough" type trashing, but more like "Biden is a sexual predator" type stuff.

I've made the argument to him multiple times that getting Trump out of office is more important than any progressive agenda at the moment, and it just falls on deaf ears. It's seemingly like he'd rather the entire country burn to the ground than put in someone who isn't as progressive as he is. To me that's the ultimate cutting off your nose to spite your face, but whatever.

Posted: **Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:28 am**

Remus West wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:07 am Have I mentioned how much I HATE the majority of Bernie supporters? They sit here during a time when the Dems need desperately to project strength and unity against a party and man who seem to be openly working towards the end of Democracy in America and they want to cause problems because their bread isn't buttered properly.

I mostly agree but major healthcare reform is very, very popular. And it isn't unreasonable that they don't trust the centrists on this anymore after 10 years of the ACA.

Octopus Overlords

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