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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Octavious »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:02 pm So SC passed its "State of Emergency" absentee voting bill, meaning that anyone can now vote absentee without needing an excuse. However, I'm a bit confused because the website list "in person" absentee voting as an option (steps listed in spoiler). Does that just mean early voting, which wasn't an option in SC before? If so, that's pretty nice and I am going to try to take advantage of that.
Spoiler:
In Person

Step 1: Visit your county voter registration office or extension office.

Begins Monday, October 5.
Ends 5:00 p.m., Monday, November 2.

Step 2: Complete an application.

Step 3. Cast your ballot.
I think you should wait for the debates to hear what platforms each party has.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Isgrimnur »

Politico
Joe Biden has pitched himself to voters as a “union man,” a son of Scranton, Pa., who respects the dignity of work and will defend organized labor if he wins the White House.

To rank-and-file members in some unions, especially the building trades, it doesn’t matter. They’re still firmly in Donald Trump’s camp.

Labor leaders have worked for months to sell their members on Biden, hoping to avoid a repeat of 2016 when Donald Trump outperformed among union members and won the White House. But despite a bevy of national union endorsements for Biden and years of what leaders call attacks on organized labor from the Trump administration, local officials in critical battleground states said support for Trump remains solid.

“We haven’t moved the needle here,” said Mike Knisley, executive secretary-treasurer with the Ohio State Building and Construction Trades Council, who estimated that about half of his members voted for Trump in 2016 and will do so again. “Even if given all the information that’s been put out there, all the facts — just pick an issue that the president has had his hands in — it doesn’t make a difference.”
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

I suppose it shouldn't be surprising anymore, but it's pretty amazing how open the Trump campaign is being about their plans to circumvent election results to stay in power.


Spoiler:
Republican sources tell @bartongellman the Trump campaign "is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority."
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

That's definitely terrifying. One thing I will say, though, is if the election results are showing something like Biden +5 in Wisconsin (which right now looks fairly likely) and Trump / the GOP have the WI legislature vote to give WI delegates to Trump, and it's decisive in the election, there are going to be HUGE and sustained protests. Maybe I'm naive, but the track record of mass sustained protests forcing the incumbent to leave is pretty good.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Unagi »

Plans to bypass election results ... if it was as blatant as that, I would like to think that would end in all out civil war.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by LordMortis »

Unagi wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:02 am I would like to think that would end in all out civil war.
If it's anything more that trumbluster because the Fucko in chief likes to Troll and his target audience likes him to troll then I agree. Short of that, it's the day I change my federal withholding to 0 and quit paying any federal taxes I can and go to jail for tax evasion. If my state buys in, then I quit paying all taxes while wishing I was as smart as all you'all who have an ex(pat)it plan. That's one direct way to achieve the last straw.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:50 am That's definitely terrifying. One thing I will say, though, is if the election results are showing something like Biden +5 in Wisconsin (which right now looks fairly likely) and Trump / the GOP have the WI legislature vote to give WI delegates to Trump, and it's decisive in the election, there are going to be HUGE and sustained protests. Maybe I'm naive, but the track record of mass sustained protests forcing the incumbent to leave is pretty good.
But what happens if Biden wins Wisconsin by 1 or 2%? There will likely be at least one critical state that Biden wins by a slim margin and undoubtedly Trump will do anything to try to override those results. How that plays out might determine whether we're still a democracy in 2021...
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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:15 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:50 am That's definitely terrifying. One thing I will say, though, is if the election results are showing something like Biden +5 in Wisconsin (which right now looks fairly likely) and Trump / the GOP have the WI legislature vote to give WI delegates to Trump, and it's decisive in the election, there are going to be HUGE and sustained protests. Maybe I'm naive, but the track record of mass sustained protests forcing the incumbent to leave is pretty good.
But what happens if Biden wins Wisconsin by 1 or 2%? There will likely be at least one critical state that Biden wins by a slim margin and undoubtedly Trump will do anything to try to override those results. How that plays out might determine whether we're still a democracy in 2021...
The scenario's not that different as long as the vote total shows Biden ahead (even if it's not by much), as that's the scenario where they'd be 'bypassing' the vote. There's another scenario (which in some ways I'm more worried about) where Trump's ahead on election night and he tries to get the vote counting shut down, as then he would have votes justifying him claiming a 'win' (even if continued counting would probably put Biden ahead).

I will say I'm not sure whether Republicans have enough control of enough states to do this. In Wisconsin they have a legislative majority but not a veto-proof majority, and the Democrats have the governorship. Similarly Democrats have the governorships in MI and PA. I don't think that Republicans have a veto-proof majority in NC, either.

I worry a lot about Florida. BUT if Biden wins MI, WI, and PA, then he's basically 99% won the election, and I don't *think* Republicans have enough power to override election results in any of them.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

Can the legislatures do that if the Governor is a Democrat?

The following battleground states have both the legislature and governor controlled by Republicans: AZ, FL, GA, IA, OH, TX.

If the legislatures alone can do it, that would add NC, MI, PA and WI.

Yeah, that's scary.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Re: the title of this thread, we (collectively, as a country), should have been thinking about the possibility of 2020 a looooong time ago, and put safeguards in place. Too bad we didn't have the foresight to see this coming, but this latest silliness by Pelosi is far too late of course. Not silly because I think the policies listed are silly, but silly because it has no chance of passing now in our current contentious state, and seems a bit like trying to bail water from the Titanic after it already started sinking.

It's still surprising to me just how fragile our democracy is and has been, given how much is based on "precedent" and an almost "gentleman's honor" kind of mentality. I guess it's also why I feel like throat punching someone when I see or hear the word "UNPRECEDENTED!!!#@" now when describing this trainwreck. Wow, REALLY? Well, surely it will all stop if we shout loudly how UNUSUAL this all is. :roll:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/2 ... ump-420355
Pelosi unveils Watergate-style anti-corruption reforms — tailored for the Trump era
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by YellowKing »

This bill is designed for a post-Trump era, they're just getting it on the table. It would have a good chance of passing under a Biden presidency, unless Republicans wish to NOT constrain his power. :D
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Zaxxon »

Defiant wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:47 pm Can the legislatures do that if the Governor is a Democrat?

The following battleground states have both the legislature and governor controlled by Republicans: AZ, FL, GA, IA, OH, TX.

If the legislatures alone can do it, that would add NC, MI, PA and WI.

Yeah, that's scary.
The Atlantic article above really should be read in full. It does address this, and much more. Terrifying start to finish.

We remain so, so fucked.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Gotta say, I've been very impressed with Bernie this cycle.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Holman »

No good deed goes unpunished.



As several have pointed out on Twitter, Bloomberg isn't paying anyone to vote. He's paying to give them the opportunity to vote.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Man, Bloomberg would love nothing more than to get investigated for this.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Unagi »

Why is that? I'm not following the pieces that are moving here.

When he said he was going to do this, I was going to say something like, "Sounds like something people will say is 'buying votes'..."
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Holman »

Unagi wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:29 pm Why is that? I'm not following the pieces that are moving here.

When he said he was going to do this, I was going to say something like, "Sounds like something people will say is 'buying votes'..."
It's not, though. It's more like paying for buses to carry people to the polls.

People with paid fines will be perfectly free to vote for the party that attempted to deny them the right. If they wish.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Unagi »

I have no idea how he selected his people.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Kraken »

Holman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:39 pm People with paid fines will be perfectly free to vote for the party that attempted to deny them the right. If they wish.
That's not so far-fetched; I've read that trump's a rock star among the prison population.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Jaymann »

Kraken wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:58 pm
Holman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:39 pm People with paid fines will be perfectly free to vote for the party that attempted to deny them the right. If they wish.
That's not so far-fetched; I've read that trump's a rock star among the prison population.
Stockholm Syndrome?
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

Holman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:39 pm
It's not, though. It's more like paying for buses to carry people to the polls.

People with paid fines will be perfectly free to vote for the party that attempted to deny them the right. If they wish.
Or not vote at all, if they so choose.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Unagi wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:29 pm Why is that? I'm not following the pieces that are moving here.

When he said he was going to do this, I was going to say something like, "Sounds like something people will say is 'buying votes'..."
Because there's no plausible criminal exposure for him, because he can easily afford the best lawyers, and because this would make him look great in the public eye - Trump lackeys going after him for paying off people's fines and allowing them to vote.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Kraken »

Jaymann wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:17 pm
Kraken wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:58 pm
Holman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:39 pm People with paid fines will be perfectly free to vote for the party that attempted to deny them the right. If they wish.
That's not so far-fetched; I've read that trump's a rock star among the prison population.
Stockholm Syndrome?
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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"they hate my guts"

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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When you're a transparent invertebrate trying to pass as human it's easy for people to hate you.

I really do wish that pouring money like that into an election could unseat the bottom feeder glued to the chair. Of course, that would cut both ways... but you'd have to be deeply unpopular with many groups for that kind of funding to materialize... so you probably earned it.
2020 has been the longest century in recent history, and we're still not done with it.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Unagi »

Yeah, it's not like there is money pouring in to 'save him'...

Alas, He'll probably still squeak by.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Well, that's a helpful reminder - chipped in a bit for Harrison.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Alefroth »

So it's okay when Lindsey raises the most money in an SC senate race, but not that Black guy.

Republicans complaining about money in politics is rich.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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I would not be surprised if Graham is on the donor list for Harrison. There's probably a lot of self-loathing going on there.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Unagi »

Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:57 pm So it's okay when Lindsey raises the most money in an SC senate race, but not that Black guy.

Republicans complaining about money in politics is rich.
I assume he’s specifically upset that people outside the state are behind a lot of the money.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by malchior »

Unagi wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:17 pm
Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:57 pm So it's okay when Lindsey raises the most money in an SC senate race, but not that Black guy.

Republicans complaining about money in politics is rich.
I assume he’s specifically upset that people outside the state are behind a lot of the money.
Sure but it shows how big a hypocrite he is. How much of his money comes from in state? Anyway, that's rhetorical but it's clear when Republicans are on the losing side of their own bullshit they whine and snivel. It'd be amusing if they weren't so disastrous.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Zaxxon »

malchior wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:29 pm
Unagi wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:17 pm
Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:57 pm So it's okay when Lindsey raises the most money in an SC senate race, but not that Black guy.

Republicans complaining about money in politics is rich.
I assume he’s specifically upset that people outside the state are behind a lot of the money.
Sure but it shows how big a hypocrite he is. How much of his money comes from in state? Anyway, that's rhetorical but it's clear when Republicans are on the losing side of their own bullshit they whine and snivel. It'd be amusing if they weren't so disastrous.
Republicans' entire electoral strategy relies on a minority from outside the most populous areas imposing their will on the majority. I don't want to hear about 'outside' influence from Repubs.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Carpet_pissr »

With all the doom and gloom, I was happy to see this on 538 (especially the recount % chance), even though I am trying hard not to get too wrapped up in the data and statistics.

Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College 11 in 100

The election hinges on a recount
Candidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states 5 in 100

Not sure why they don't just use 11%, or 5%, but whatever.

Trump wins in a landslide (winning pop vote by double digit margin)
<1 in 100

Biden wins in a landslide
30 in 100

This, on the other hand, is not great. Was really hoping to see a better shot for Harrison (though I suspect if polls were done today, we would see that uptick).

Image
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by LordMortis »

Out of state money for the GOP flood so much money into the Michigan GOP election every cycle it's unreal. The worst was when the money was flooding to fight for Gerrymandering and against mail in voting (and cried foul when out of state money started coming in to fight against gerrymandering and for the no question absentee ballots). I don't agree with so much out of state influence but we are so past broken at this point, I'm tempted to just start throwing money in to Kentucky politics.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Alefroth »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:21 pm Image
Why do they have a Deluxe model?
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:21 pm Image
Why do they have a Deluxe model?
They have a few different models. The basic (I think 'lite') just looks at polls. The other models (including I believe Deluxe) include fundamentals (including the general partisan lean of the state) and predictions by experts (e.g., Cook Report), as I gather those have been shown to be generally predictive of the outcome. In general my understanding is that as you get closer to the election, the weight of the fundamentals gets reduced in favor of giving more weight to the current polls.

So basically I think the deluxe is assuming that the race will probably move towards Graham in the polls in part because SC is such a Republican state. BUT if that fails to show up in the polls over time then Harrison's odds in the deluxe model should go up.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:21 pm

Not sure why they don't just use 11%, or 5%, but whatever.
I suspect it has something to do with the general public often not understanding probability and percentages. Not that I think everyone will understand this either.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Alefroth »

I see, so it's a different model, not necessarily a superior one.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by malchior »

Alefroth wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:05 pm I see, so it's a different model, not necessarily a superior one.
Yup - if you were to look under the hood it would potentially be different sets of data and/or different predictive algorithms.
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