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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »



Sort of good news and quietly sad at the same time. I'm just gonna attribute his gain in position to Trump. And I suppose it's eminently reasonable to excuse extramarital sexting when the candidate's opponent is facilitating the misrule of a president who is an outright sexual predator.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Scraper »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:12 am

Sort of good news and quietly sad at the same time. I'm just gonna attribute his gain in position to Trump. And I suppose it's eminently reasonable to excuse extramarital sexting when the candidate's opponent is facilitating the misrule of a president who is an outright sexual predator.
Exactly. The Republicans have officially given up on trying to be the moral authority under Trump and so how can they honestly expect a sexting scandal to move the needle one way or another at this point.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by YellowKing »

That's good news. While I certainly am not a fan of Cal Cunningham sexting women other than his wife, it pales in comparison to what a lot of other GOP politicians have done. And I was absolutely convinced it was going to hurt him since I've learned never to underestimate the amount of hypocrisy people are capable of.
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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

YellowKing wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:33 am That's good news. While I certainly am not a fan of Cal Cunningham sexting women other than his wife, it pales in comparison to what a lot of other GOP politicians have done. And I was absolutely convinced it was going to hurt him since I've learned never to underestimate the amount of hypocrisy people are capable of.
FWIW's 538's model gives Cunningham a 66% chance of winning currently (actually higher than Gideon in Maine, who is at 62% currently).

Though I'm more worried about voting conditions in NC than in ME.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Grifman »

Cook Political projecting 7 seat Democratic gain in Senate:

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

YellowKing wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:33 am That's good news. While I certainly am not a fan of Cal Cunningham sexting women other than his wife, it pales in comparison to what a lot of other GOP politicians have done. And I was absolutely convinced it was going to hurt him since I've learned never to underestimate the amount of hypocrisy people are capable of.
Apparently having an affair is sort of the norm for Democratic senators from NC...
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Grifman »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:23 am
YellowKing wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:33 am That's good news. While I certainly am not a fan of Cal Cunningham sexting women other than his wife, it pales in comparison to what a lot of other GOP politicians have done. And I was absolutely convinced it was going to hurt him since I've learned never to underestimate the amount of hypocrisy people are capable of.
Apparently having an affair is sort of the norm for Democratic senators from NC...
Yeah, first thing I thought, "Dummy, did you not learn anything from John Edwards!" :doh:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by RunningMn9 »

Grifman wrote:Cook Political projecting 7 seat Democratic gain in Senate:

I think that is being misread. The projection is a gain between 2 and 7 seats. I don’t think they were projecting +2 and are now projecting +7.

A seven seat gain in the Senate would be an apocalypse level event in this election and would almost certainly come alongside a Biden tidal wave.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

RunningMn9 wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:53 pm
Grifman wrote:Cook Political projecting 7 seat Democratic gain in Senate:

I think that is being misread. The projection is a gain between 2 and 7 seats. I don’t think they were projecting +2 and are now projecting +7.

A seven seat gain in the Senate would be an apocalypse level event in this election and would almost certainly come alongside a Biden tidal wave.
No, I think he's reading that right.

"We are also increasing our current Senate projection from a gain of 2 to 7 seats for Democrats "

I read that as: We are increasing out projection from a projected gain of 2 to a projected gain of 7 seats.

It especially fits in with the second sentence. A 51-49 senate would be a net gain of 4 seats for Democrats, and it sounds like Republicans would be very lucky to have only lost a net 4 seats.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by stessier »

RunningMn9 wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:53 pm
Grifman wrote:Cook Political projecting 7 seat Democratic gain in Senate:

I think that is being misread. The projection is a gain between 2 and 7 seats. I don’t think they were projecting +2 and are now projecting +7.

A seven seat gain in the Senate would be an apocalypse level event in this election and would almost certainly come alongside a Biden tidal wave.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

:doh:

Well bad on her for writing a poorly written tweet :P
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by RunningMn9 »

Defiant wrote::doh:

Well bad on her for writing a poorly written tweet :P
Yeah, it was clearly written poorly.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by El Guapo »

To be clear, though, a 7 seat democratic gain isn't far out scenario. 538's model gives about a 19% chance that the Democrats pick up that many seats *or more* (including a 0.1% chance of a 13 seat gain!).

Bear in mind that the Democrat is now narrowly favored in Iowa, for example.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by LordMortis »

RunningMn9 wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:24 pm it was clearly written poorly.
That is a statement of beauty.

Also, as written in shorthand, I see "from a gain of 2 to 7" as way of saying from a gain of 2 to a gain of 7. Ironically, if that were written as a long hand statement as part of a larger examination, I would have mentally changed it "to a gain of 2 to 7" and interpret the meaning as intended, even though she's using the wrong preposition, implying she is about to state the previous projection rather than the revised projection. I think I need more drugs.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by stessier »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:25 pm To be clear, though, a 7 seat democratic gain isn't far out scenario. 538's model gives about a 19% chance that the Democrats pick up that many seats *or more* (including a 0.1% chance of a 13 seat gain!).
For comparison, that is only 4% more than they give for Trump winning.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by noxiousdog »

If MJ Hager beats Cornyn in Texas, it will be the end of the Republican party. She has no business in the Senate at this point in her career. When she ran for a House seat, I would welcomed her in an instant. I donated to that campaign even though it's not my district and I'm doing so for her Senate campaign too.

I'm voting for her, but if I had any real other option, I would take it. She's way too inexperienced and her spam in my email box makes me cringe every time I see it. I can't imagine that's what's even keeping it close?

This is classic poor planning by the Democratic primary. Someone should have convinced Beto not to run for president, but instead to get that Senate seat.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Holman »

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:43 pm Someone should have convinced Beto not to run for president, but instead to get that Senate seat.
Beto running for president as a young senator could be JFK. Same for Buttigieg.

Heck, we could have two JFKs back to back. How awesome would that be?
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

I can't imagine Beto being able to do as well in the Senate race as he did in '18 after his politically idiotic comments about getting rid of guns and taxing churches.
Last edited by Defiant on Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by LordMortis »

Someone should have convinced Beto not to run for president,
:cry: I never got to vote for him. Biden is what is but I would have felt exceptionally good being able to vote for Beto in the primary.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

To step away from the US for a moment, the Prime Minister of New Zealand won reelection in a landslide and a majority of seats in the Parliament, their best showing for 50 years, in the aftermath of their successful handling of Covid.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Defiant wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:05 am To step away from the US for a moment, the Prime Minister of New Zealand won reelection in a landslide and a majority of seats in the Parliament, their best showing for 50 years, in the aftermath of their successful handling of Covid.
It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

So apparently, AOC suggested that people vote for Biden in the Working Family line (a progressive third party in New York that largely mirrors the Democratic candidates).

The thing is, AOC isn't on the Working Family line herself. And that's because she didn't get enough signatures on her petition, falling short of the 15 required.

That's not a typo.
The 15 required signatures were a result of an executive order signed by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo as a result of the coronavirus pandemic; the governor reduced the number of petitions required to make the ballot for political contests this year.

To secure a spot on the Working Families Party line, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez needed 14.58 signatures, which the Board of Elections rounded up to 15; Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s campaign submitted 14, and one was knocked out.
Oops

Not a big deal, but mildly amusing.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Ænima »

Defiant wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:05 am To step away from the US for a moment, the Prime Minister of New Zealand won reelection in a landslide and a majority of seats in the Parliament, their best showing for 50 years, in the aftermath of their successful handling of Covid.
It was also her compassion during the Christchurch massacre along with the swift action on gun laws that added to her popularity. I think she would have been re-elected without COVID, but her handling of it certainly made Labour's victory a slam dunk.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Jeff V »

Skinypupy wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:59 am It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.
Is that because the rest of his administration was so pristine the Democrats would have been hard pressed to find another issue?

When shooting for the big prize, always aim at the largest target. Right now it's Covid.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Defiant »

Skinypupy wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:59 am
Defiant wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:05 am To step away from the US for a moment, the Prime Minister of New Zealand won reelection in a landslide and a majority of seats in the Parliament, their best showing for 50 years, in the aftermath of their successful handling of Covid.
It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.
I think for him to be cruising to reelection, he would have had to have a competent response (along the lines of Germany, say), and that's something that all the evidence suggests Trump would have been incapable of.

I think for a slightly competent response, it would be a close race (I could envision either being ahead in such a scenario)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Skinypupy »

Jeff V wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:34 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:59 am It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.
Is that because the rest of his administration was so pristine the Democrats would have been hard pressed to find another issue?
I think a quarter million+ dead Americans are a little tougher to brush aside than his typical corruption and vileness.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

Post by Jeff V »

Skinypupy wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:07 pm
Jeff V wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:34 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:59 am It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.
Is that because the rest of his administration was so pristine the Democrats would have been hard pressed to find another issue?
I think a quarter million+ dead Americans are a little tougher to brush aside than his typical corruption and vileness.
No doubt, and that's why it's the proverbial elephant in the room. But still, his level of vileness and corruption was not typical, it was spectacularly egregious. There would have been many viable avenues for the donkeys to stampede.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Ossoff currently has a slim lead. Perdue fleeing the final debate can't be a good look for him.

It's possible that (If Ossoff wins this and Warnock wins the special election, as he might) Georgia will suddenly have two Dem senators.

Oh, and definitely watch the video in the first tweet above. You can actually see Perdue's soul leaving his body as Ossoff eviscerates him on healthcare.
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