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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:52 pm

coopasonic wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:22 pm
Could Texas go blue for Beto? I know we elected Cruz and that still kind of hurts but I don't know how much benefit a candidate gets across the aisle from their home state. Red states don't get any bigger than Texas (electorally speaking, sorry Alaska).
I think Democrats will have an outside shot at TX in 2020, and Beto might help around the margins, but either way it's likely to be a long shot. I'm also skeptical that Texas would be the tipping point state - I tend to think that if the Democratic nominee is winning TX, they're probably also winning AZ, and quite possibly FL already.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Ralph-Wiggum » Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:22 pm

I wonder if the Leans R for Florida is taking into account the 100,000 felons that had their right to vote restored?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:22 pm
I wonder if the Leans R for Florida is taking into account the 100,000 felons that had their right to vote restored?
I think that's one million?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:19 pm

Defiant wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:07 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:22 pm
I wonder if the Leans R for Florida is taking into account the 100,000 felons that had their right to vote restored?
I think that's one million?
News I've seen puts it at close to 1.5 million.

That's significant. Florida has about 16 million voting-age citizens, and generally fewer than 75% of those vote.

1.5 million former felons is big, especially as I'd guess that having your franchise restored is a major incentive to exercise it.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Ralph-Wiggum » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:17 am

Defiant wrote:
Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:22 pm
I wonder if the Leans R for Florida is taking into account the 100,000 felons that had their right to vote restored?
I think that's one million?
Even better!

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by em2nought » Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:21 am

Restoring felons voting rights sucks for us here in Florida. Our national cemeteries have really been filling up down here too so that's even more democrat voters. :cry:

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by hepcat » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:49 am

Ha, good one! You've impressed Mark Harris and he wants you to run his next election campaign! Do you have a car and enough room to harvest a couple thousand votes? As a Republican, he won't pay you more than minimum wage for each vote though. :mrgreen:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jaymann » Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:12 pm

Interesting that the only recent voter fraud was a Republican...
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:12 pm

Jaymann wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:12 pm
Interesting that the only recent voter fraud was a Republican...
Just to be nit-picky, that wasn't even voter fraud. It was election fraud.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Remus West » Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:02 pm

em2nought wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:21 am
Restoring felons voting rights sucks for us here in Florida. Our national cemeteries have really been filling up down here too so that's even more democrat voters. :cry:

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Better gun control might help the rate at which those cemeteries fill slow down considerably.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by YellowKing » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:53 pm

Holman wrote:Just to be nit-picky, that wasn't even voter fraud. It was election fraud.
That's actually a very important distinction, because we've already seen Mitch McConnell try to conflate the two. The GOP wants you to not know the difference so that they can refer to the NC case as a real example of "voter fraud" that would justify their sham voter fraud policies - even though it's a completely different issue.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:58 am


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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:20 pm

Whomever runs Hillary Clinton's Twitter account continues to kill it. We need to get that person to run for President.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:39 pm

FiveThirtyEight has released a 2020 endorsement tracker, that tracks how many endorsement each candidate has, and how much power those endorsement has (more high profile endorsers having more weight in their endorsements), to see if a consensus emerges among the party elites.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:53 pm

Saw a couple of punditty tweets today reinforcing the observation that 2019/2020 Biden is visibly older and less compelling than 2008-2016 "meme Biden."

Biden should pick someone to endorse and go to bat for them. I suspect he'll play a kingmaker role in this primary.

(His most likely choice is Beto O'Rourke, who is probably the most classically Obama/Biden Democrat in the pack.)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:38 am

Here's a fun cheat sheet on 30 or so candidates and potential candidates so far, from the Atlantic. The format looks like this:
JOHN HICKENLOOPER

Who is he?
Hickenlooper was the governor of Colorado until January, and previously held the most Colorado trifecta of jobs imaginable: mayor of Denver, geologist, and brewery owner.

Is he running?
Yes. Hickenlooper launched his campaign on March 4.

Why does he want to run?
Hickenlooper brands himself as an effective manager and deal maker who has governed effectively in a purple state while still staying progressive. He’s said he thinks the Democratic field could be too focused on grievance and not enough on policy.

Who wants him to run?
Hard to say. Hickenlooper’s aw-shucks pragmatism plays well with pundits, but he doesn’t have much of a national profile at this point.

Can he win the nomination?
Maybe, but Hickenlooper might be too business-friendly (and just plain friendly) to succeed in this primary.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:19 am

Michael Bloomberg has written an editorial to announce that he won't be running, and what his plans will be:
I’ve come to realize that I’m less interested in talking than doing. And I have concluded that, for now, the best way for me to help our country is by rolling up my sleeves and continuing to get work done.

Here’s one way I’ll do that. In 2011, following the failure of cap and trade legislation in Congress, I teamed up with the Sierra Club on a campaign called Beyond Coal. By organizing and mobilizing communities affected by the harmful pollution of coal-fired power plants, we have helped close more than half the nation’s plants — 285 out of 530 — and replaced them with cleaner and cheaper energy. That was the single biggest reason the U.S. has been able to reduce its carbon footprint by 11 percent — and cut deaths from coal power plants from 13,000 to 3,000.

Now, I will take the next big steps. First, I will expand my support for the Beyond Coal campaign so that we can retire every single coal-fired power plant over the next 11 years. That’s not a pipe dream. We can do it. And second, I will launch a new, even more ambitious phase of the campaign — Beyond Carbon: a grassroots effort to begin moving America as quickly as possible away from oil and gas and toward a 100 percent clean energy economy.

At the heart of Beyond Carbon is the conviction that, as the science has made clear, every year matters. The idea of a Green New Deal — first suggested by the columnist Tom Friedman more than a decade ago — stands no chance of passage in the Senate over the next two years. But Mother Nature does not wait on our political calendar, and neither can we.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by stessier » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:44 am

I've never heard of those campaigns but I like where his head is at.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Fireball » Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:53 pm

Pyperkub wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:17 pm
Interesting early analysis:
As it stands, the state of the economy next year remains unknowable, as does the identity of Trump’s challenger (Trump himself remains very likely to be the GOP nominee, although there’s always the possibility that someone else may ultimately be the candidate). So what’s there to say about the Electoral College right now?

A lot, actually.

Take a look at Map 1. Over the past five presidential elections, states and districts containing 374 of the nation’s 538 electoral votes (70%) have voted the same way in each election. Map 1 shows the recent history of Electoral College voting, with places containing 195 electoral votes consistently voting Democratic this century and those containing 179 electoral votes consistently voting Republican. That may even understate the inelasticity of the current Electoral College alignment:
Image

Image
The Safe Republican electoral votes (125)
The Leans Republican electoral votes (123)

The Safe Democratic electoral votes (183)
The Leans and Likely Democratic states (61)...

...The Toss-ups (46)

We close with the final 46 electoral votes, the Toss-ups. They come from four states — Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — as well as one congressional district, Nebraska’s Second, which is based in Omaha. Clinton carried New Hampshire by less than half a point in 2016; Trump won the rest, by less than a point in the case of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and by 3.5 points in Arizona. If it seems like we’re splitting hairs by rating Michigan as Leans Democratic and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as Toss-ups, we have to admit that we are. But Trump’s margin in the latter two were a tiny bit bigger than his margin in Michigan, and we think the Democrats’ path to victory in Michigan is more solvable based just on slightly better turnout, whereas the Democrats may have a little more persuasion work to do in the other two former “Blue Wall” states. Also, Democrats have generally done a little bit better in Michigan than in the other two over the past couple of decades.

Aside from Florida, which I would list as a toss-up because of the new voters, these maps seem reasonable to me. They identify the key swing states accurately, and the "leaning" states other than Florida all strike me as accurate assessments of states that are slightly favored to go to one party or the other but aren't out of reach.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:27 pm

Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by tjg_marantz » Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:22 pm

El Guapo wrote:Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.
He was my pick. I'm out.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by The Meal » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:21 pm

He was among the group I like as well. Sort of bummed.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:49 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:27 pm
Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.
Apparently the Atlantic is keeping their cheat sheet updated.

SHERROD BROWN

Who is he?
By statute, I am required to mention the senator from Ohio’s tousled hair, rumpled appearance, and gravelly voice.

Is he running?
No. Brown told the Youngstown Vindicator on March 7 that he will not run.

Why did he want to run?
Brown’s campaign would have focused on workers and inequality. He’s somewhat akin to Bernie Sanders, but his progressivism is of the midwestern, organized-labor variety.

Who wanted him to run?
Leftist Democrats who thought Sanders is too old and Elizabeth Warren too weak a candidate; lots of dudes in union halls in Northeast Ohio.

Could he have won the nomination?
Possibly.

What else do we know?
Like Warren, Brown has a very good dog.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:28 am

tjg_marantz wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:22 pm
El Guapo wrote:Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.
He was my pick. I'm out.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Max Peck » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:46 am

Jeff V wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:28 am
tjg_marantz wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:22 pm
El Guapo wrote:Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.
He was my pick. I'm out.

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Wait....when were you ever in? VOTER FRAUD! Build the fence! Build the fence! Stop Canadians from infiltrating our election! :horse:
I thought he was referring to the who-will-lose-to-Trump betting pool.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Lagom Lite » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am

Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:35 am

Lagom Lite wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am
Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.
eh, he's not really the front-runner yet, let along "by some margin". Current polling generally has Biden in front by a fair amount. Although Biden hasn't declared yet - if he ultimately doesn't, then that will obviously change things.

I will say that Sanders is someone who may well benefit from a crowded field, because he seems to have a significant floor of support and energetic supporters.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by coopasonic » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:41 am

Bernie was an exciting alternative to Hillary. I think he is a lot less exciting compared to some of the options we have in contention this time around.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Exodor » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:41 am

Lagom Lite wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am
I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.
In a normal (non-Trump) year Gabbard as VP would be enough to get me looking at a third party candidate.

In 2020 voting against Trump outweighs all other considerations - but Gabbard would be a tough pill to swallow. She's awful.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by geezer » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:43 am

El Guapo wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:35 am
Lagom Lite wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am
Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.
eh, he's not really the front-runner yet, let along "by some margin". Current polling generally has Biden in front by a fair amount. Although Biden hasn't declared yet - if he ultimately doesn't, then that will obviously change things.

I will say that Sanders is someone who may well benefit from a crowded field, because he seems to have a significant floor of support and energetic supporters.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Lagom Lite » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:43 am

El Guapo wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:35 am
Lagom Lite wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am
Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.
eh, he's not really the front-runner yet, let along "by some margin". Current polling generally has Biden in front by a fair amount. Although Biden hasn't declared yet - if he ultimately doesn't, then that will obviously change things.

I will say that Sanders is someone who may well benefit from a crowded field, because he seems to have a significant floor of support and energetic supporters.
As you say, Biden hasn't announced yet.

One more point: Bernie managed to raise more than 6 million dollars from small donations in the first day, and amass one million volunteers across the country within the first week. Pretty impressive.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by ImLawBoy » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:59 am

I'll eat my hat if Bernie is the nominee.

(Note: My hat is made of delicious meats and cheeses, so there's that silver lining at least.)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:03 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:43 am
El Guapo wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:35 am
Lagom Lite wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am
Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.
eh, he's not really the front-runner yet, let along "by some margin". Current polling generally has Biden in front by a fair amount. Although Biden hasn't declared yet - if he ultimately doesn't, then that will obviously change things.

I will say that Sanders is someone who may well benefit from a crowded field, because he seems to have a significant floor of support and energetic supporters.
As you say, Biden hasn't announced yet.

One more point: Bernie managed to raise more than 6 million dollars from small donations in the first day, and amass one million volunteers across the country within the first week. Pretty impressive.
But: (1) Biden is very likely to run; and (2) even if it doesn't, there's still not much basis for assuming that Sanders would be the front-runner. Biden and Sanders are pretty different, so my guess is that most of Biden's support would migrate to non-Sanders candidates in that eventuality.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:05 pm

Exodor wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:41 am
Lagom Lite wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am
I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.
In a normal (non-Trump) year Gabbard as VP would be enough to get me looking at a third party candidate.

In 2020 voting against Trump outweighs all other considerations - but Gabbard would be a tough pill to swallow. She's awful.
Yeah. he wouldn't pick Gabbard.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by ImLawBoy » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:07 pm

I see Sanders as a high floor, low ceiling candidate. While he's wildly popular among his supporters, he's also very polarizing. I suspect he (and Biden) is high in the polls right now largely based on name recognition. As things proceed, other candidates will gain momentum. As candidates drop out, I suspect their support will go largely to non-Sanders candidates (although he'll certainly get some of them).
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pm

I worry about Sanders' demonstrated incapacity for compromise and team playing.

In 2016, after he lost, you could see him gritting his teeth every time he grudgingly voiced support for HRC. Maybe he thought she was a sure win and that he could play on his popularity to push her Left, but that just will not fly this time.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:14 pm

Holman wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pm
I worry about Sanders' demonstrated incapacity for compromise and team playing.
It takes two to tango. Show me any evidence that the GOP is open to cooperating with any D government.

This flawed assumption is the achilles heel of the centrist position.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:18 pm

Kraken wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:14 pm
Holman wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pm
I worry about Sanders' demonstrated incapacity for compromise and team playing.
It takes two to tango. Show me any evidence that the GOP is open to cooperating with any D government.

This flawed assumption is the achilles heel of the centrist position.
I worry about his incapacity for compromise and team playing within the Democratic party (among other concerns I have about him).
Last edited by Defiant on Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:30 pm

Defiant wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:18 pm
Kraken wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:14 pm
Holman wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pm
I worry about Sanders' demonstrated incapacity for compromise and team playing.
It takes two to tango. Show me any evidence that the GOP is open to cooperating with any D government.

This flawed assumption is the achilles heel of the centrist position.
I worry about his incapacity for compromise and team playing within the Democratic party (among other concerns I have about him).
Yeah, I was talking about Sanders' willingness to back any nominee other than himself.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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