Octopus Overlords

coopasonic wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:22 pm Could Texas go blue for Beto? I know we elected Cruz and that still kind of hurts but I don't know how much benefit a candidate gets across the aisle from their home state. Red states don't get any bigger than Texas (electorally speaking, sorry Alaska).

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:22 pm I wonder if the Leans R for Florida is taking into account the 100,000 felons that had their right to vote restored?

Defiant wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:22 pm I wonder if the Leans R for Florida is taking into account the 100,000 felons that had their right to vote restored?

I think that's one million?

Defiant wrote:

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:22 pm I wonder if the Leans R for Florida is taking into account the 100,000 felons that had their right to vote restored?

I think that's one million?

Jaymann wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:12 pm Interesting that the only recent voter fraud was a Republican...

em2nought wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:21 am Restoring felons voting rights sucks for us here in Florida. Our national cemeteries have really been filling up down here too so that's even more democrat voters.

Holman wrote:Just to be nit-picky, that wasn't even voter fraud. It was election fraud.

JOHN HICKENLOOPER

Who is he?
Hickenlooper was the governor of Colorado until January, and previously held the most Colorado trifecta of jobs imaginable: mayor of Denver, geologist, and brewery owner.

Is he running?
Yes. Hickenlooper launched his campaign on March 4.

Why does he want to run?
Hickenlooper brands himself as an effective manager and deal maker who has governed effectively in a purple state while still staying progressive. He’s said he thinks the Democratic field could be too focused on grievance and not enough on policy.

Who wants him to run?
Hard to say. Hickenlooper’s aw-shucks pragmatism plays well with pundits, but he doesn’t have much of a national profile at this point.

Can he win the nomination?
Maybe, but Hickenlooper might be too business-friendly (and just plain friendly) to succeed in this primary.

I’ve come to realize that I’m less interested in talking than doing. And I have concluded that, for now, the best way for me to help our country is by rolling up my sleeves and continuing to get work done.

Here’s one way I’ll do that. In 2011, following the failure of cap and trade legislation in Congress, I teamed up with the Sierra Club on a campaign called Beyond Coal. By organizing and mobilizing communities affected by the harmful pollution of coal-fired power plants, we have helped close more than half the nation’s plants — 285 out of 530 — and replaced them with cleaner and cheaper energy. That was the single biggest reason the U.S. has been able to reduce its carbon footprint by 11 percent — and cut deaths from coal power plants from 13,000 to 3,000.

Now, I will take the next big steps. First, I will expand my support for the Beyond Coal campaign so that we can retire every single coal-fired power plant over the next 11 years. That’s not a pipe dream. We can do it. And second, I will launch a new, even more ambitious phase of the campaign — Beyond Carbon: a grassroots effort to begin moving America as quickly as possible away from oil and gas and toward a 100 percent clean energy economy.

At the heart of Beyond Carbon is the conviction that, as the science has made clear, every year matters. The idea of a Green New Deal — first suggested by the columnist Tom Friedman more than a decade ago — stands no chance of passage in the Senate over the next two years. But Mother Nature does not wait on our political calendar, and neither can we.

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:17 pm Interesting early analysis:

As it stands, the state of the economy next year remains unknowable, as does the identity of Trump’s challenger (Trump himself remains very likely to be the GOP nominee, although there’s always the possibility that someone else may ultimately be the candidate). So what’s there to say about the Electoral College right now?

A lot, actually.

Take a look at Map 1. Over the past five presidential elections, states and districts containing 374 of the nation’s 538 electoral votes (70%) have voted the same way in each election. Map 1 shows the recent history of Electoral College voting, with places containing 195 electoral votes consistently voting Democratic this century and those containing 179 electoral votes consistently voting Republican. That may even understate the inelasticity of the current Electoral College alignment:

The Safe Republican electoral votes (125)
The Leans Republican electoral votes (123)

The Safe Democratic electoral votes (183)
The Leans and Likely Democratic states (61)...

...The Toss-ups (46)

We close with the final 46 electoral votes, the Toss-ups. They come from four states — Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — as well as one congressional district, Nebraska’s Second, which is based in Omaha. Clinton carried New Hampshire by less than half a point in 2016; Trump won the rest, by less than a point in the case of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and by 3.5 points in Arizona. If it seems like we’re splitting hairs by rating Michigan as Leans Democratic and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as Toss-ups, we have to admit that we are. But Trump’s margin in the latter two were a tiny bit bigger than his margin in Michigan, and we think the Democrats’ path to victory in Michigan is more solvable based just on slightly better turnout, whereas the Democrats may have a little more persuasion work to do in the other two former “Blue Wall” states. Also, Democrats have generally done a little bit better in Michigan than in the other two over the past couple of decades.

El Guapo wrote:Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:27 pm Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.

tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:22 pm

El Guapo wrote:Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.

He was my pick. I'm out.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5010 using Tapatalk

Jeff V wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:28 am

tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:22 pm

El Guapo wrote:Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has announced that he is NOT running.

He was my pick. I'm out.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5010 using Tapatalk

Wait....when were you ever in? VOTER FRAUD! Build the fence! Build the fence! Stop Canadians from infiltrating our election!

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:35 am

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.

eh, he's not really the front-runner yet, let along "by some margin". Current polling generally has Biden in front by a fair amount. Although Biden hasn't declared yet - if he ultimately doesn't, then that will obviously change things.

I will say that Sanders is someone who may well benefit from a crowded field, because he seems to have a significant floor of support and energetic supporters.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:35 am

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.

eh, he's not really the front-runner yet, let along "by some margin". Current polling generally has Biden in front by a fair amount. Although Biden hasn't declared yet - if he ultimately doesn't, then that will obviously change things.

I will say that Sanders is someone who may well benefit from a crowded field, because he seems to have a significant floor of support and energetic supporters.

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:43 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:35 am

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am Looks to me like Bernie is the front runner by some margin, due to his ability to mobilize voters. It wouldn't matter so much in a European country with high voter turnout, but in the US which has relatively low voter turnout it makes a big difference with someone who can energize independents, and potential new voters (young people, even Trump voters seem to favor Bernie over other Dem candidates).

I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.

eh, he's not really the front-runner yet, let along "by some margin". Current polling generally has Biden in front by a fair amount. Although Biden hasn't declared yet - if he ultimately doesn't, then that will obviously change things.

I will say that Sanders is someone who may well benefit from a crowded field, because he seems to have a significant floor of support and energetic supporters.

As you say, Biden hasn't announced yet.

One more point: Bernie managed to raise more than 6 million dollars from small donations in the first day, and amass one million volunteers across the country within the first week. Pretty impressive.

Exodor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:41 am

Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:26 am I agree his pick for VP is going to be very relevant, due to his age. He's said he prefers a woman to be his running mate. My bet is Tulsi Gabbard.

In a normal (non-Trump) year Gabbard as VP would be enough to get me looking at a third party candidate.

In 2020 voting against Trump outweighs all other considerations - but Gabbard would be a tough pill to swallow. She's awful.

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pm I worry about Sanders' demonstrated incapacity for compromise and team playing.

Kraken wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:14 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pm I worry about Sanders' demonstrated incapacity for compromise and team playing.

It takes two to tango. Show me any evidence that the GOP is open to cooperating with any D government.

This flawed assumption is the achilles heel of the centrist position.

Defiant wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:18 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:14 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:35 pm I worry about Sanders' demonstrated incapacity for compromise and team playing.

It takes two to tango. Show me any evidence that the GOP is open to cooperating with any D government.

This flawed assumption is the achilles heel of the centrist position.

I worry about his incapacity for compromise and team playing within the Democratic party (among other concerns I have about him).