The Former Trump Presidency Thread

[El Guapo]

No one gives a crap about a former president, not with regard to holding them accountable anyway. He's golden, whatever happens in 2020.

None have ever been jailed for Treason before. They will care. If only because being out of office won't remove his desire for the spotlight. Prison will.

OK, how about a gentleman's bet? The bet will only matter if he loses in 2020 (which I think he will, as my thinking is similar to El Guapo's in this regard). Within the first year talk of drumpf in anything but past tense will drop to near zero, and calls for investigation and/or prosecution will diminish until only a few pundits mention it in passing. This is my position.

We can meet again here a year after the election to discuss, if you are amiable.

I think this is one area where it would matter a lot which Democrat is President in this scenario. I think the odds that a Biden Administration prosecutes Trump is very low, close to zero. President Sanders...I think it closer to 50/50.

[GreenGoo]

I think this is one area where it would matter a lot which Democrat is President in this scenario. I think the odds that a Biden Administration prosecutes Trump is very low, close to zero. President Sanders...I think it closer to 50/50.

I think you're dreaming. Sanders will be too busy setting up his own whitewater to pay attention to has-beens.

[malchior]

Ultimately the "defeat Trump in 2020" approach is BY FAR the most likely to succeed in removing Trump. Trump is unpopular! He won in 2016 (despite getting 2 - 3 million fewer votes) because he was an outsider and because his opponent was even more unpopular. If they run someone who's mildly popular, or even mildly unpopular, that's probably ~ 60% chance of winning. What are the odds of convincing 67% of Senators, many of whom have to worry about winning a Republican primary dominated by MAGA voters, to vote to convict Trump?

If the only reason to impeach is to remove Trump, sure I'd agree. There are other reasons to do it though. It'll stick to him. Meaning this isn't a story of the day outrage that the news cycle will swallow. This will be a whirlwind they can't ignore. It'll be messy but that sort of is the point. If the Democrats can't make this story stick then fuck it - it is over. This is literally what the process was dreamt up for. The Democrats pretty much just have to lay out the Mueller report case for the public and it should be enough to justify it. On top, what else will they inevitably find when they have expedient access to documents? Financial documents/tax documents, etc. Probably a decent amount more. When they say they are afraid of the consequences of impeachment they are pretty much admitting they can't shoot fish in a barrel.

Another take away from impeachment is that they lay out these crimes and the Republicans refuse to convict. It puts the Republicans on the spot to justify that before a major election. How do you pass up that opportunity by itself. This is maddening. They have a slam dunk case for impeachment and they are worried about the Republican reaction? It is short-sighted - that would be a blessing in disguise.

That said, I am also inclined to your view that Democrats don't 'fight' enough, by which I mainly mean that they don't pull enough stunts. Maybe impeachment is the right way to go. But there are also other routes that they could take - I'm kind of intrigued by the option of House democrats making use of 'inherent' contempt powers to arrest people in defiance of their subpoenas. Or to shut down the legislative process to the maximum extent possible until legislation is adopted to address 2020 election security, and/or voting rights. I don't think the 'correct' stunt is obvious, but I do think that there is a compelling argument for doing more than they are currently doing.

Stunts are certainly useful. I am skeptical that they'll do it. The Republicans have been turning up the crazy steadily for 25 years or so and the Democrats have largely stuck to their guns about taking the high road. The safe road. I really want them to take the high road that involves fighting for what you believe in. This political pacifism has been a part of the disaster we now face.

[Smoove_B]

*stuff*

Exactly. The idea that everything is being pinned on a election when an election is how we got here in the first place is ridiculous. There's no way the GOP or President Trump should be able to skate into 2020 unchallenged in what they say and do (or what they're not saying or doing). The idea that their strategy is to just keep on truckin' unchallenged is unacceptable. Plus, there are absolutely people holding prayer vigils and hoping something happens to RGB so that this administration (with the help of McConnell) can nominate and appoint a third (!) Supreme Court Justice.

[El Guapo]

*stuff*

Exactly. The idea that everything is being pinned on a election when an election is how we got here in the first place is ridiculous. There's no way the GOP or President Trump should be able to skate into 2020 unchallenged in what they say and do (or what they're not saying or doing). The idea that their strategy is to just keep on truckin' unchallenged is unacceptable. Plus, there are absolutely people holding prayer vigils and hoping something happens to RGB so that this administration (with the help of McConnell) can nominate and appoint a third (!) Supreme Court Justice.

The point is that nothing anyone can say or do will change the fact that everything rests on winning in 2020. We can impeach if we want, as apparently that by itself will mean that Trump is held "accountable", but the idea that that will result in his removal is pure fantasy. If you want to make the case that that will increase his chances of losing in 2020, that's plausible, but it's still the case that everything rests on 2020.

[gbasden]

It's what happens when you elect a white whale to the office of the presidency.

He's our Prince of Wails!

[GreenGoo]

Exactly. The idea that everything is being pinned on a election when an election is how we got here in the first place is ridiculous. T

Certain members have suggested that thinking about the next election is long term thinking. The next election is the very definition of short term thinking in politics. There is nothing shorter than wanting to win the next election.

Long term is the credibility and faith people have in the institutions of the USA. The Conway thing is just another example. She is behaving unethically and should be removed, says watchdog. You'er biased and this is political (and we'd fire you like we did with internal watchdogs, if we could) says this administration. And that's the end of it. But that isn't the end. This administration is setting awful precedent after precedent. That idea that these won't have future consequences in perpetuity is incredibly narrow thinking.

People already think politicians are corrupt. They ain't seen nothing yet. We'll see far worse unethical behaviour in our lifetimes than drumpf ever dreamed of doing. It's possible the public will care then, but probably not. New precedents, new standards and norms, shrug. Bilking the American public for personal gain will become the mainstream reason for becoming the president, and everyone will simply accept it, it'll be an unspoken truth because "it's always been like that". Except it hasn't always been like that, it's happening *now*, and people are too scared about losing the next election to do anything about it.

Trying to win an election is business as usual. Drumpf is strip mining the integrity of the office, and people are arguing business as usual is the best approach. Because no one else will ever behave as drumpf behaved. Once he's gone, problem solved.

[LordMortis]

People already think politicians are corrupt. They ain't seen nothing yet. We'll see far worse unethical behaviour in our lifetimes than drumpf ever dreamed of doing. It's possible the public will care then, but probably not. New precedents, new standards and norms, shrug. Bilking the American public for personal gain will become the mainstream reason for becoming the president, and everyone will simply accept it, it'll be an unspoken truth because "it's always been like that". Except it hasn't always been like that, it's happening *now*, and people are too scared about losing the next election to do anything about it.

I have to tell myself I'm too young to remember Nixon and wasn't alive for the segregated south or race riots or "white flight" or Kent State and that we got past all that and this hasn't reached the depths of every day then. Some days I have to tell myself that several times in a day.

[GreenGoo]

I have to tell myself I'm too young to remember Nixon and wasn't alive for the segregated south or race riots or "white flight" or Kent State and that we got past all that and this hasn't reached the depths of every day then. Some days I have to tell myself that several times in a day.

Sure, and every one of those examples was a major turning point for the US, because of what followed. What's following drumpf is business as usual. That said, every one of your examples is far worse than drumpf, and so required a major response from America. Here we are arguing whether drumpf requires a response at all. That's fine. I understand peoples' views on the matter, I just don't agree.

America will survive drumpf one way or another, but it will be diminished, the more so if his unethical behaviour is glossed over and/or ignored.

[malchior]

Trying to win an election is business as usual. Drumpf is strip mining the integrity of the office, and people are arguing business as usual is the best approach. Because no one else will ever behave as drumpf behaved. Once he's gone, problem solved.

Biden is literally saying he thinks the Republicans will go back to 'normal' after Trump is gone. What fucking la-la land does he live in? I also have to wonder what back to normal means. Is he talking obstructing every activity during the Administration he was Vice-President of? Not considering Supreme Court Justices? Or back to endless Benghazi or perhaps Swift Boat for Justice or the Brooks Brothers' Riot? WTF. I just don't get where anyone's heads are at anymore. I get being diplomatic but there are limits to credulity.

[LordMortis]

We already are diminished. 80 years of international good will and faith UScentric economic stability is now gone overshadowed, by arbitrary economic bullying of the last two years. You don't just hit the reset button on that. How can you?

[GreenGoo]

We already are diminished. 80 years of international good will and faith UScentric economic stability is now gone overshadowed, by arbitrary economic bullying of the last two years. You don't just hit the reset button on that. How can you?

No, but you can rebuild that good will and trust, over time. This becomes much easier if drumpf is a blip and the next several administrations work with the world in good faith. A significant portion of the American population seem to hate that goodwill and trust though, and rejoice in burning it to the ground. So...prognosis is uncertain.

That said, you're not alone and the loonies are starting to come into power in other democracies as well. The US may well be the role model for the rest of the first world. So...that's fun to contemplate.

[Freyland]

Exactly. The idea that everything is being pinned on a election when an election is how we got here in the first place is ridiculous. T

Certain members have suggested that thinking about the next election is long term thinking. The next election is the very definition of short term thinking in politics. There is nothing shorter than wanting to win the next election.

Long term is the credibility and faith people have in the institutions of the USA. The Conway thing is just another example. She is behaving unethically and should be removed, says watchdog. You'er biased and this is political (and we'd fire you like we did with internal watchdogs, if we could) says this administration. And that's the end of it. But that isn't the end. This administration is setting awful precedent after precedent. That idea that these won't have future consequences in perpetuity is incredibly narrow thinking.

People already think politicians are corrupt. They ain't seen nothing yet. We'll see far worse unethical behaviour in our lifetimes than drumpf ever dreamed of doing. It's possible the public will care then, but probably not. New precedents, new standards and norms, shrug. Bilking the American public for personal gain will become the mainstream reason for becoming the president, and everyone will simply accept it, it'll be an unspoken truth because "it's always been like that". Except it hasn't always been like that, it's happening *now*, and people are too scared about losing the next election to do anything about it.

Trying to win an election is business as usual. Drumpf is strip mining the integrity of the office, and people are arguing business as usual is the best approach. Because no one else will ever behave as drumpf behaved. Once he's gone, problem solved.

[tjg_marantz]

That bitch fuck SS is leaving at the end of the month. May her toxicity follow her to the grave.

[GreenGoo]

She is certainly a blight. I too hope her behaviour has ramifications that follow her to the end of her days. Heavily implied are "negative" ramifications. I fear that positive ones will, due to like minded people.

[LawBeefaroni]

She is certainly a blight. I too hope her behaviour has ramifications that follow her to the end of her days. Heavily implied are "negative" ramifications. I fear that positive ones will, due to like minded people.

She will have to live with herself. That's punishment enough.

And I don't mean she has to live with a guilty conscience or anything like that. I mean she literally has to be around herself 24-7.

[GreenGoo]

Lucrative cushy jobs can go a long way in making a person tolerant, even (especially?) of themselves.

Self loathing is a thing. I hope it becomes her thing.

I realize this is not what you meant. I'm saying it anyway.

[Holman]

No one gives a crap about a former president, not with regard to holding them accountable anyway. He's golden, whatever happens in 2020.

None have ever been jailed for Treason before. They will care. If only because being out of office won't remove his desire for the spotlight. Prison will.

OK, how about a gentleman's bet? The bet will only matter if he loses in 2020 (which I think he will, as my thinking is similar to El Guapo's in this regard). Within the first year talk of drumpf in anything but past tense will drop to near zero, and calls for investigation and/or prosecution will diminish until only a few pundits mention it in passing. This is my position.

We can meet again here a year after the election to discuss, if you are amiable.

I don't think Trump or DonJr or the rest will be tried for treason or anything like it.

But SDNY prosecutors are licking their chops for a chance at Trumpian financial crimes. There are whole careers to be made there.

[LawBeefaroni]

Lucrative cushy jobs can go a long way in making a person tolerant, even (especially?) of themselves.

Self loathing is a thing. I hope it becomes her thing.

I realize this is not what you meant. I'm saying it anyway.

To paraphrase a great public defender, "She is Sarah Sanders. This is her crime, it is also her punishment.'

[GreenGoo]

But SDNY prosecutors are licking their chops for a chance at Trumpian financial crimes. There are whole careers to be made there.

Far enough. If those investigations contain transgressions specifically related to his presidency I lose the bet. If they are just "drumpf is a criminal" then it doesn't count (for the bet). The investigations have to find evidence specific to his presidency in someway. We already know that he's a shyster and the drumpf organization is almost certainly involved in many crimes, such as money laundering.

[Holman]

[Grifman]

Exactly. The idea that everything is being pinned on a election when an election is how we got here in the first place is ridiculous. T

Certain members have suggested that thinking about the next election is long term thinking. The next election is the very definition of short term thinking in politics. There is nothing shorter than wanting to win the next election.

Long term is the credibility and faith people have in the institutions of the USA. The Conway thing is just another example. She is behaving unethically and should be removed, says watchdog. You'er biased and this is political (and we'd fire you like we did with internal watchdogs, if we could) says this administration. And that's the end of it. But that isn't the end. This administration is setting awful precedent after precedent. That idea that these won't have future consequences in perpetuity is incredibly narrow thinking.

People already think politicians are corrupt. They ain't seen nothing yet. We'll see far worse unethical behaviour in our lifetimes than drumpf ever dreamed of doing. It's possible the public will care then, but probably not. New precedents, new standards and norms, shrug. Bilking the American public for personal gain will become the mainstream reason for becoming the president, and everyone will simply accept it, it'll be an unspoken truth because "it's always been like that". Except it hasn't always been like that, it's happening *now*, and people are too scared about losing the next election to do anything about it.

Trying to win an election is business as usual. Drumpf is strip mining the integrity of the office, and people are arguing business as usual is the best approach. Because no one else will ever behave as drumpf behaved. Once he's gone, problem solved.

And your solution is an impeachment process that will fail, and we will still need an election to fix things.

The problem, sadly, is not just Trump - he is the symptom. As you noted, he was elected. And there are still 90% of Republicans who support him. The problem is that a significant proportion of voters support, even revel in Trump and his stupidities. Impeachment won't fix that, an election won't fix that - I don't know really how we fix that. That is the long term problem - not the next election, not impeachment - the fact that a significant proportion of American voters - roughly around 40% - don't really care about our constitutional and institutional norms being violated every single day.

So don't talk "long term" until you have a fix for that - short of that, every thing is tactical and short term.

[GreenGoo]

Your solution is to do nothing. Those who do nothing do not dictate the terms. They watch from the sidelines.

If it's any consolation, you can "I told you so" all you want afterward.

[YellowKing]

I think you fix the problem of the GOP flouting the rule of law by holding them accountable. Otherwise, you're just empowering them to go further and further.

[Grifman]

Your solution is to do nothing. Those who do nothing do not dictate the terms. They watch from the sidelines.

If it's any consolation, you can "I told you so" all you want afterward.

Duh, my solution is to win the election.

Your solution is not a solution because impeachment won't result in Trump leaving office - effectively "doing nothing". If the goal is getting Trump out of office, then you've got nothing. I'm not sure how you can tell me "I told you so" since your "solution" doesn't actually solve anything.

[Grifman]

I think you fix the problem of the GOP flouting the rule of law by holding them accountable. Otherwise, you're just empowering them to go further and further.

Great idea, but how do you hold them accountable? That takes voters and elections. I don't see a wave of discontented voters removing large numbers of Republicans from office any time soon, do you?

[GreenGoo]

I think you fix the problem of the GOP flouting the rule of law by holding them accountable. Otherwise, you're just empowering them to go further and further.

The counter argument I've heard on the board is that a failed impeachment does not hold anyone accountable. Some people feel an impeachment that stalls in the Senate is still accomplishing something. Others do not. Some feel a failed impeachment increases drumpf's chances in 2020. Others aren't so sure. Some feel the best course of action is to win an election, which I can only assume is something they had no intention of doing until drumpf came along, otherwise why suggest it as a course of action at all? Like suggesting the best way to stay alive from a gunshot wound is to keep breathing.

Everything anti-impeachment people believe will happen may in fact happen. I *still* think there is value in a stalled impeachment process even if it results in drumpf staying in the WH in 2020. I agree with your assessment, YK.

Too much Realpolitik and you risk losing sight of what's right in attempts to be successful. Too much Realpolitik and you wind up as the GOP. Too much Realpolitik and the constitution becomes a hindrance, rather than a cornerstone.

[Zaxxon]

If the goal is getting Trump out of office, then you've got nothing.

More than one goal here.

[malchior]

Your solution is to do nothing. Those who do nothing do not dictate the terms. They watch from the sidelines.

If it's any consolation, you can "I told you so" all you want afterward.

Duh, my solution is to win the election.

Your solution is not a solution because impeachment won't result in Trump leaving office - effectively "doing nothing". If the goal is getting Trump out of office, then you've got nothing.

Impeachment is not doing nothing. As many people have said - ask Bill Clinton if impeachment was nothing to him. *One* goal is to get him out of office but the bigger picture demands that the Democrats use what diminishing power they have to do what they can. They have sat on their hands for too long and not fighting is the surest way to lose that election too.

[wonderpug]

If impeachment now changes nothing, but impeachment next year helps the election year, wouldn't you want to wait until next year?

[GreenGoo]

Great idea, but how do you hold them accountable? That takes voters and elections. I don't see a wave of discontented voters removing large numbers of Republicans from office any time soon, do you?

It's a marathon, not a sprint. It took decades to get this way. No one is going to wake up one morning with all the problems magically solved, and that shouldn't be the criteria demanded otherwise do nothing.

Shining a spotlight on the cockroaches so everyone can see what they are doing is the least that should be done. That it won't sway diehards is a given. What would? The spotlight is being shone even without impeachment, but an impeachment process would be even more illuminating, imo. The details that would reach the press would be another grain of sand on the scale. Putting those grains on the scale is better than not putting those grains on. One day a single grain might tip the balance. Doing nothing is guaranteed not to do so.

I don't understand the argument that things are so bad that it's best to do nothing unless you can solve it all in one fell swoop.

[GreenGoo]

If impeachment now changes nothing, but impeachment next year helps the election year, wouldn't you want to wait until next year?

Sure. Who determines whether that's true or not? If impeachment in 2021 brings down the entire GOP infrastructure, I'd prefer that. It has been pointed out that there is a lot of common wisdom and assumptions being made that are based on little but speculation, but are being put forth as rock solid fact.

In any case, my arguments for impeachment are there to counter arguments against impeachment. I don't need impeachment today, but when I hear arguments against *ever* impeaching, I have an opinion on that.

If Pelosi wants to bide her time, gather her forces, and strike when she feels the time is right, have at it. She's the career politician, not me.

[Holman]

The impeachment process make Trump's crimes headline news for months and months.

He has worked so hard at these crimes. At least give him this.

You'd be shocked by how many Americans still believe Mueller exonerated him.

[GreenGoo]

The impeachment process make Trump's crimes headline news for months and months.

He has worked so hard at these crimes. At least give him this.

You'd be shocked by how many Americans still believe Mueller exonerated him.

But it's doomed to failure.

But it won't change anyone's mind.

But the election.

[malchior]

Too much Realpolitik and you risk losing sight of what's right in attempts to be successful. Too much Realpolitik and you wind up as the GOP. Too much Realpolitik and the constitution becomes a hindrance, rather than a cornerstone.

I see it a little differently. It is ConventionalWisdomTik except if 25 years have shown us anything it is that the Democrats are abysmal at the grand strategy level. In effect, their sense of Conventional Wisdom continuously leads them into dead ends. Look back over the last 25 years and compare GOP 'achievements' to Dem achievements. The GOP track record has been awful in the sense that they misled us into a disastrous war in Iraq and presided over a financial meltdown. They lie, they steal elections, they suppress the vote, they partner up with dictators, etc. And yet STILL RUN THE BOARD. They control many states, they control the Senate, they have the Supreme Court, and they often have the Presidency.

The Dems have essentially a handful of landmark achievements in that time - the biggest being the ACA and that was partially rolled back already. Much of Obama's agenda has been rolled back. And that is because they can't message, they don't fight, and they dick around. We are seeing it now. Pinning hopes on the election is a reasonable conventional wisdom sort of thing to do but as you said that is short-term thinking. What happens if they lose? What is their long-term strategy to get power back? They don't have one. And what is the GOP doing? They control the census and are obfuscating what is clearly another attempt to tilt the field. This is why they win and the Dems lose. Until the Dems put up a fight and start winning...the nation will slowly but surely continue its slide into autocracy.

If impeachment now changes nothing, but impeachment next year helps the election year, wouldn't you want to wait until next year?

Sure - except they won't do it. The conventional wisdom will be the election is too close and they are *sure* to win it. This is Hillary all over again.

[GreenGoo]

Maybe, but the Dems had a black president for 2 successive terms less than 4 years ago, and the ACA (something the Reps were highly motivated to stop) became a thing during that time.

The idea that Dems are bad at this and the GOP is great is another false reality that everyone "just knows" is true. While it's true that the Reps have their victories, a lot (I won't say all) are from cheating in one form or another, gerrymandering and such. That the Dems *still* regularly succeed in the face of this is a testament if not to the Dem leadership themselves, then to the American people. I'm not saying they don't screw up. They do. Losing the SCOTUS seat was pure bungling, and it is going to cost the American people for years to come.

Drumpf LOST the popular vote. Less people wanted him as president than his opponent. He has only gotten less popular, even amongst republican voters. He may win in 2020. We'll see. I'm for shining that light in the meantime.

[Blackhawk]

A lot of the argument stems from the fact that people are after two different ends: Some want the soonest possible end to the Trump Presidency, and nothing else matters. Others consider maintaining the office of President to be more important. For the prior goal, impeachment is a waste of time and accomplishes nothing, and fear that it may be counterproductive. For the latter, impeachment is the best tool available to avoid showing the rest of history that political convenience makes the President free from reaction to criminal activity.

Different goals, and people are arguing which tool they should use as if they were rooting for the same outcome.

[malchior]

Maybe, but the Dems had a black president for 2 successive terms less than 4 years ago, and the ACA (something the Reps were highly motivated to stop) became a thing during that time.

The idea that Dems are bad at this and the GOP is great is another false reality that everyone "just knows" is true. While it's true that the Reps have their victories, a lot (I won't say all) are from cheating in one form or another, gerrymandering and such. That the Dems *still* regularly succeed in the face of this is a testament if not to the Dem leadership themselves, then to the American people. I'm not saying they don't screw up. They do. Losing the SCOTUS seat was pure bungling, and it is going to cost the American people for years to come.

Drumpf LOST the popular vote. Less people wanted him as president than his opponent. He has only gotten less popular, even amongst republican voters. He may win in 2020. We'll see. I'm for shining that light in the meantime.

You completely missed my point. It isn't conventional wisdom that the Dems have been getting smoked. It a fact of the outcomes. I'll expand on the post above. If you were to survey the bench - an increasing amount of judges are GOP nominated. Recently more and more ideological and unqualified. The GOP was able to steal a Supreme Court nominee with hardly a protest...because Hillary would obviously win. Know what the GOP did with that? They used it as rallying cry to their base. Because they know how to fucking win.

Major legislative victories by the Democrats for change? Few and again to put a finer point on it; their landmark achievement ACA has had a major structural piece hacked off. It is at risk of failing over time. Heck I would give them credit for a major compromise legislative victort as a win but those pretty much don't exist either.

In short, it has been the GOP way or the highway for decades now pretty much at both the national and state levels. When the GOP didn't have the Presidency they fought tooth and nail against any Democrat led change. When the GOP have the Presidency they steamroll through their changes. As we talked about yesterday - they lack the ability to effectively stage 'stunts' or message in a way that resonates with the public. The Dems have been utterly ineffective against them for some time now. Trump losing the popular vote? Who cares. In 2 years he attacked 70+ years of post-WW2 governance, the rule of law, Presidential norms, and the free press. And the Democrat response is to hope they win the next election? Beyond pathetic. I can't put that squarely at the feet of the Democrats. That'd be completely unfair but they certainly contributed by being pretty damn ineffective and not having a cohesive strategy to oppose the GOP.

[El Guapo]

The impeachment process make Trump's crimes headline news for months and months.

He has worked so hard at these crimes. At least give him this.

You'd be shocked by how many Americans still believe Mueller exonerated him.

But it's doomed to failure.

But it won't change anyone's mind.

But the election.

Let me ask this. The House votes to impeach in (say) November 2019 to impeach, on essentially a party-line vote (Amash also votes yes, maybe half a dozen democrats in red districts vote no). The Senate holds an impeachment trial in December, which McConnell streamlines to the maximum extent possible. Late December, the Senate votes 54-46 to acquit (54 no / acquit votes, 46 convict votes) - all Republicans vote no, joined by Manchin.

What's the next step of the plan after that? Or is it mission accomplished at that point?

[malchior]

The Senate holds an impeachment trial in December, which McConnell streamlines to the maximum extent possible.

While the Senate sets the rules - I don't think McConnell would be able to change the exist procedures all that much. He is the evil master so perhaps he would but still Roberts would preside over the Trial. The process as laid out isn't especially quick and in the end the way to oppose this is to do as much damage as possible during the impeachment inquiries. Again make it obvious how bad Trump is. If the Senate refuses to be non-partisan make them pay a price for it.

Late December, the Senate votes 54-46 to acquit (54 no / acquit votes, 46 convict votes) - all Republicans vote no, joined by Manchin.

On the basis of the Mueller report alone you might have a couple of flips. If you do more damage, do you get a couple more? Maybe. To realistically handicap it, a devastating discovery of impeachable acts beyond the Mueller report might get you a 10% chance of a removal. About the same odds as Trump winning...which is better than 0.

What's the next step of the plan after that? Or is it mission accomplished at that point?

You go after every vulnerable Republican Senator for that vote. You use it as an opportunity to steal their seat out under them. You use that evidence all year to hammer away at Trump and his whole shoddy administration. They should continue to fight. The nation is likely on the line at this point. My only hope is that Pelosi is dragging her feet to get this closer to the election but I also fear they'll do what they always do and avoid the righteous fight in front of them.