The Former Trump Presidency Thread

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:29 am

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:25 am Yes, it's important to keep perspective. The last time we saw the DOW at this value was 2019. It's hardly a crash.

We haven't even wiped out the fantasy 20% gain of 2019 yet. But we're just about there. The thing is, once it wipes out 20% gain of 2019, we revert right into the losses in 2018.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:35 am

If you go with a 8-9% stock market average rate of return we are now below the historical average so it looks like the market has over-corrected a bit. We went from slightly overbought to now slightly oversold (relatively speaking). Once this settles out this likely is going to be a good investment environment. The speed of the change is the unexpected part IMO.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:36 am

LordMortis wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:29 am
noxiousdog wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:25 am Yes, it's important to keep perspective. The last time we saw the DOW at this value was 2019. It's hardly a crash.
We haven't even wiped out the fantasy 20% gain of 2019 yet. But we're just about there. The thing is, once it wipes out 20% gain of 2019, we revert right into the losses in 2018.

Nearly all of 2018 is better than nearly all of 2017. Picking a particular spot in time is a fools errand. It just drives you crazy. Look at a ten year chart. You'll see dips and peaks. At the time they look super important. In hindsight, not so much.

It's certainly noteworthy, but it's not panic levels and it's not unexpected.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:41 am

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:36 am Nearly all of 2018 is better than nearly all of 2017. Picking a particular spot in time is a fools errand. It just drives you crazy. Look at a ten year chart. You'll see dips and peaks. At the time they look super important. In hindsight, not so much.

It's certainly noteworthy, but it's not panic levels and it's not unexpected.

Agreed. I'm just following your flow. Ever since 2010 or so, we've been on a crazy upturn. It's hard for me to figure anything in historical context. I can only guess at the now.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:17 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:35 am If you go with a 8-9% stock market average rate of return we are now below the historical average so it looks like the market has over-corrected a bit. We went from slightly overbought to now slightly oversold (relatively speaking). Once this settles out this likely is going to be a good investment environment. The speed of the change is the unexpected part IMO.

I use the S&P and by my calculations, we still have about 100 points to drop before we get to the trendline.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:39 pm

stessier wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:17 pm
malchior wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:35 am If you go with a 8-9% stock market average rate of return we are now below the historical average so it looks like the market has over-corrected a bit. We went from slightly overbought to now slightly oversold (relatively speaking). Once this settles out this likely is going to be a good investment environment. The speed of the change is the unexpected part IMO.
I use the S&P and by my calculations, we still have about 100 points to drop before we get to the trendline.

Depends on your start date. I use S&P as well and peg to the end of the slightly post-Carter recession right before Volker induced his recession to break the inflation fever. That is the beginning in my opinion of the modern era of finance. Still it isn't hard science. Just a bit of an indicator

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:29 pm

+5% move in the DOW today. This is a totally healthy marketplace.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:20 pm

Mexico is absolutely not paying for the wall, btw.

If you don't know, Daniel Dale is the account to follow for coverage and assessment of all Trump public appearances.

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:31 pm

So many thing wrong.... Doesn't know what impeach means. Quid Pro Quo. ok technically maybe a yes, but nothing illegal... Unlike what he did as President.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:43 am

Isn't he saying that he should have been impeached?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:46 pm

Trump has harassed the Fed into exhausting nearly all its stimulus ability before we have had a contraction in the business cycle. The next downturn is going to be essentially uncontrolled. They made an emergency 50 bps cut and the market dropped 2.5%.

The Federal Reserve is cutting but must further ease and, most importantly, come into line with other countries/competitors. We are not playing on a level field. Not fair to USA. It is finally time for the Federal Reserve to LEAD. More easing and cutting!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:41 pm

So a "level playing field" means identical monetary policy? The fuck is he talking about?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:46 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:41 pm So a "level playing field" means identical monetary policy? The fuck is he talking about?

Something...something...rich people have it very hard. Maybe he heard about getting paid to borrow money and wants in on that racket.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:48 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:46 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:41 pm So a "level playing field" means identical monetary policy? The fuck is he talking about?
Something...something...rich people have it very hard. Maybe he heard about getting paid to borrow money and wants in on that racket.

"Dark-skinned people are trying to take advantage of you again, but I am trying to stop them."

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:47 pm

Have I mentioned that we're fucked?

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:06 pm

10-year Treasury yield dipped under 1% for the first time.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:11 am

More evidence that Trump understands nothing about macroeconomics.

Part of American Hegemony has been our ability to set global monetary policy and fund our deficit by the Federal Reserve. A level playing field would lead to surrendering our privileged economic role. No ability for the U.S. to sustain low interest rates which push 10-year Treasury borrowing costs to less than 1%.

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:21 am

does Trump ever refer (in speeches or comments or whatever) to US citizens who don't support him? ever? or does he pretend over half the country doesn't exist?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:38 am

hitbyambulance wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:21 am does Trump ever refer (in speeches or comments or whatever) to US citizens who don't support him? ever? or does he pretend over half the country doesn't exist?

I think he honestly believes polls showing a lack of support are fake news. If you lie often enough, you begin to believe the world you are painting is the real thing.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:39 am

Also, any folks that don't support him wouldn't be true Americans. Not worth worrying about them.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:43 am

Zaxxon wrote:Also, any folks that don't support him wouldn't be true Americans. Not worth worrying about them.

Hey you're either inside the wall, or outside the wall!

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:15 am

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:39 am Also, any folks that don't support him wouldn't be true Americans. Not worth worrying about them.

Well, to his son, they're not even human.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:02 pm

Hey, I know - let's publish rule updates on Super Tuesday and hope that no one notices:

Yesterday the Trump administration issued a supplemental notice to a draft rule long feared by many in the public health and scientific communities as a major disruption to science-based policy as we know it. Purported to be about transparency at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the proposal—in reality—would prevent the EPA from using the best available science to protect public health and the environment, as its mission holds.

Bullet point summary:

The EPA’s use of science will be even more severely restricted
The restrictions are more complicated and confusing, but still limit science
The goal of the rule is to question the science
The administration doesn’t know the difference between the EPA and the CDC
The administrator still has broad authority to decide when the rule applies

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:28 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:47 pm Have I mentioned that we're fucked?

For the record, you have, which makes this all your fault. Thanks a bunch.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:09 pm

The market swings up almost 4% just before the closing bell. Why the media says? Biden doing well on Super Tuesday. That causality sounds super scientific. I mean they just about that time announced he won...checks...MAINE! By...a...point! A *yuge* win in a critical state.

Luckily for civilization that fuels Trump's claims that Bernie being ahead was tanking the market. It wasn't China shutting down for a month. Or the business community essentially bunkering up killing the airlines. Or expected slack demand for consumer products. It was all Bernie maybe winning in 9 months.

This is such a stupid timeline.

With less than half an hour to go in the trading day, the Dow rallied more than 1,000 points. Stocks are rebounding sharply from yesterday's losses, helped by Joe Biden's wins on Super Tuesday.

Biden is considered a more market-friendly contender for the Democratic nomination, compared with Bernie Sanders.

The Dow was last up 1,050 points, or 4.1%, while the broader S&P 500 rallied 3.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 3.3%.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:33 pm

Wrong reason for the up move. Maybe it's the positive effect from the coronavirus.

Trump says there's a "positive impact" to the worldwide coronavirus outbreak because people are "staying in our country" and are "shopping and using our hotels in this country."

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:01 pm

JFC. Of course he mentions hotels. Of course.

Is this the part of the story/simulation that I hope the new coronavirus has a sense of dramatic irony? Like...a really awesome way to end the story that's been unfolding for the last 3+ years? Is that wrong? That's probably wrong.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:24 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:01 pm JFC. Of course he mentions hotels. Of course.

Jesus fried for our sins.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:29 pm

On that theme...

Trump is wearing campaign merch during his visit to areas of Tennessee delimitated by tornadoes

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:56 pm

Smoove_B wrote:On that theme...

Trump is wearing campaign merch during his visit to areas of Tennessee delimitated by tornadoes

Didn't they replace E Pluribus Unum with MAGA on the presidential seal yet?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:05 pm

Smoove_B wrote:delimitated by tornadoes

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:16 pm

At least they weren't decimated.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:45 pm

Hey man, I just quote the covfefe so people that can't see Tweets can participate.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:28 pm

Mulvaney finally out - Mark Meadows in as Chief of Staff

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:05 pm

Changing your Chief of Staff during a National Health Emergency is stupid. Which is of course why Trump is clearing out the unreliables.

Z-Corn · Post by **Z-Corn** » Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:59 am

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:45 pm Hey man, I just quote the covfefe so people that can't see Tweets can participate.

And it is appreciated!

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:34 pm

NYT: Erik Prince Recruits Ex-Spies to Help Infiltrate Liberal Groups

Erik Prince, the security contractor with close ties to the Trump administration, has in recent years helped recruit former American and British spies for secretive intelligence-gathering operations that included infiltrating Democratic congressional campaigns, labor organizations and other groups considered hostile to the Trump agenda, according to interviews and documents.

One of the former spies, an ex-MI6 officer named Richard Seddon, helped run a 2017 operation to copy files and record conversations in a Michigan office of the American Federation of Teachers, one of the largest teachers’ unions in the nation. Mr. Seddon directed an undercover operative to secretly tape the union’s local leaders and try to gather information that could be made public to damage the organization, documents show.

Using a different alias the next year, the same undercover operative infiltrated the congressional campaign of Abigail Spanberger, then a former C.I.A. officer who went on to win an important House seat in Virginia as a Democrat. The campaign discovered the operative and fired her.

Both operations were run by Project Veritas, a conservative group that has gained attention using hidden cameras and microphones for sting operations on news organizations, Democratic politicians and liberal advocacy groups.

The above is just the tip of the iceberg. Trump has gone full Nixon here. There's very little we can assume Trump won't do to secure his position.

Also, fucking Project Veritas? Our only hope is that Trump's most loyal minions are ridiculous assclowns.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:43 pm

That's way beyond Nixon, but I can't resist mentioning another parallel: Nixon cheated to steal an election he was already going to win anyway, and so is Trump.

I'm sure all campaigns have moles in their opponents' operations, but actual spies with actual Bond gear is some next-level shit.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:45 pm

In case anyone didn't know by now, Erik Prince is Betsy Devos' brother.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:57 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:45 pm In case anyone didn't know by now, Erik Prince is Betsy Devos' brother.

And an absolutely vile piece of shit, although that kinda goes without saying in that family.