The Former Trump Presidency Thread

[Skinypupy]

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the part of fiscal responsibility

The federal government’s annual budget deficit is set to widen significantly in the next few years, and is expected to top $1 trillion in 2020 despite healthy economic growth, according to new projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released Monday.

Enjoy that extra $1.50/paycheck everyone!

[Kraken]

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the part of fiscal responsibility

The federal government’s annual budget deficit is set to widen significantly in the next few years, and is expected to top $1 trillion in 2020 despite healthy economic growth, according to new projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released Monday.

Enjoy that extra $1.50/paycheck everyone!

It's even worse than it seems

The good stuff comes on page 88 of the report, under the benign-sounding “Alternative Assumptions about Fiscal Policy” section. This is where CBO cuts the crap—the crap in this case being current-law projections. To reach all of the figures I listed above, CBO followed the letter of the law. That means it assumed that all of the individual cuts from last year’s tax bill set to expire after 2025 actually will expire, and that when this current two-year budget expires, it won’t be replaced with another budget deal, and discretionary spending will collapse.

Though we can’t know the exact specifications of what it would look like, a deal will likely be struck by 2026 that prevents most of the individual tax cuts from expiring. And once the current spending agreement that lifted spending caps expires, Congress isn’t going to let both defense and non-defense discretionary spending fall by tens of billions of dollars—especially as the current numbers, even after the recent agreement’s boost, are historically low as a share of GDP.

If Congress made permanent most of the individual tax code changes, it would deprive the government of another $650 billion in revenue over the 2018 to 2028 window—nearly all of that taking place in the final three years. If Congress eliminates or indefinitely delays certain health care taxes that it delayed earlier in the year, that would mean another $324 billion in lost revenue. On the spending side, if Congress simply grew its most recent allocations at the rate of inflation through 2028, it would add another $1.7 trillion in spending to CBO’s baseline. All told, and with debt service incorporated, CBO’s alternative assumptions—i.e., its best stab at political reality—would add another $2.6 trillion to its ten-year deficit baseline. (And that includes a generous assumption that emergency spending for disasters, like hurricanes, will revert to its recent historic average after the current, particularly disaster-filled fiscal year ends. Fortunately there are no theories out there suggesting that changing climate patterns could lead to costlier disasters.)

This will all spike during the next recession, too.

The next time responsible adults gain control, they're going to face another huge cleanup job.

[Isgrimnur]

And, once again, the blame.

[Smoove_B]

Well, this is depressing if true:

Conservative blogger Erik Erickson is reporting that during his trip to Washington, D.C., he met up with an as-of-yet-unnamed Republican congressman, one who has publicly been very supportive of Donald Trump, and during their clandestine walk through the aisles of a grocery store outside of D.C. (they didn’t want to be seen), this Republican congressman absolutely went off on Trump and his disastrous leadership.

"I say a lot of shit on TV defending him, even over this. But honestly, I wish the motherf*cker would just go away. We're going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him. All his supporters will blame us for what we have or have not done, but he hasn't led.

If only there was some way you could...I don't know, support a group of people that would collectively speak up and possibly do something? Nah, you're probably right. Publicly support the man but behind the scenes panic over your own station. That seems like a much better course of action for a career politician. Also, F you and your complicit peers.

[RunningMn9]

The as-yet-unnamed Republican Congressman is right that he will be blamed. He just doesn't seem to understand WHY he's going to be blamed. It has to do with the "I support him on TV" part of the equation. Stop being a spineless piece of shit that is watching this dipshit drive our country off a cliff, and maybe people won't blame you for helping driving our country off a cliff?

[malchior]

This is like someone being part of the group that designed the atomic bomb - handing it to a bunch of amateurs - and then worrying that maybe they'll take the blame when the amateurs nuke something. Most of these guys have been along for the ride the whole time. The Republicans wanted power and control more than anything else so they sold their souls. We have to live with their arrogance and cruelty. They can go fuck themselves. I won't shed a tear for them. They deserve nothing.

[LordMortis]

He's not complaining about being blamed by you. He doesn't give a shit about you. He's complaining about that he will be blamed by the deplorables whose votes he his actively courting knowingly at the expense of the country whom he also knows he can't win over Trump who is acting at the expense of the country... No check that.... "who hasn't led this country."

Which is the perfect illustration of why the GOP needs to be dismantled, even if somehow inexplicably one or fiver or ten members somehow prove that they are different from the rest.

edit:

That was to RM9, which is to say he understands why he's being blamed he just doesn't understand that he concerned about being blamed by the wrong people whom are going to blame no matter what.

[Sepiche]

Well, this is depressing if true

It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a f**king idiot who thinks he's winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump.

[Paingod]

Well, this is depressing if true

You know having Mike as President would really piss off all the right people, too. They think they hate Trump. Mike is competent...

That's more and more becoming terrifying to me. Trump is an absolute tit, and a disgusting human being - but his own ineptitude has kept him from doing more harm. If Pence follows the same agenda but with savvy, it's not good for anyone not wearing his colors.

[Blackhawk]

Pence won't be doing it with Congress in his pocket.

[YellowKing]

I'm not worried about Pence. Yeah, I don't agree with his policies, but they're right-wing evangelical policies that we've lived through before. Pence would follow the rule of law (because if he didn't, Jesus would punish him). He'd respect our institutions and their boundaries. He wouldn't go to war with the media and intelligence community. Long story short, I don't see Pence as an evil mastermind. I think he's just a Bible-thumper who would lean that way politically but otherwise would be pretty boring.

And we need boring.

Put it this way - Pence would know what he's doing, but how is that any different from any other Republican president before Trump? And with Trump's stank on him and hampered by Congress...yeah I'll take Pence all week long and twice on Sundays. (Because Sunday is the Lord's day!)

[Isgrimnur]

So he's Lawful Evil instead of Chaotic Stupid?

[LordMortis]

I'm not worried about Pence. Yeah, I don't agree with his policies, but they're right-wing evangelical policies that we've lived through before. Pence would follow the rule of law (because if he didn't, Jesus would punish him). He'd respect our institutions and their boundaries. He wouldn't go to war with the media and intelligence community. Long story short, I don't see Pence as an evil mastermind. I think he's just a Bible-thumper who would lean that way politically but otherwise would be pretty boring.

And we need boring.

Put it this way - Pence would know what he's doing, but how is that any different from any other Republican president before Trump? And with Trump's stank on him and hampered by Congress...yeah I'll take Pence all week long and twice on Sundays. (Because Sunday is the Lord's day!)

To date Pence has never struck me as being in the pocket hostile foreign interests or attempting to line his own pockets with graft while attacking the entire economy of the US or openly encouraging lovers of bigoted fascism, conspiracy theorists, and Armageddon Calvinists who ironically think they're chosen vessels of God's will in this end of times to MAGA with no regard for anything but... really I'm not sure what. I don't get what Trump is getting from all of this.

He does strike me as someone who would diplomatically tell you to show compassion while shoving the knife in, as someone who would institutionalize bigotry that should be dying in the name Jesus but then what do we have now?

He seems like someone who loves the country even if I can't stand sin....

I've been wrong before.

[Remus West]

At best Pence has turned a blind eye to Trump's misdeeds. Alone that would disqualify him as anything other than scum to me. Given the things he did as Gov he is much worse. Given the retirement of Ryan I'd love to see both pieces of Congress flipped and then both Trump and Pence impeached - albeit with impeccable evidence of wrongdoing (plenty of that regarding Trump already but I'd want it on Pence too before endorsing his impeachment).

[Pyperkub]

Republican Congressman speaking with Erick Erickson (RedState/Never Trumper "Conservative"):

I'll probably lose too and won't have to put up with that sh*t." He won't lose. His district is very Republican.

What's the problem, though? Well, get ready…

"It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a f**king idiot who thinks he's winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump. I listen to your podcast and heard you hate it too. What an overrated piece of sh*t movie. Can you believe it beat the Shawshank Redemption?"

The Congressman goes on:

"I say a lot of shit on TV defending him, even over this. But honestly, I wish the motherf*cker would just go away. We're going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him. All his supporters will blame us for what we have or have not done, but he hasn't led. He wakes up in the morning, sh*ts all over Twitter, sh*ts all over us, sh*ts all over his staff, then hits golf balls. F*ck him. Of course, I can't say that in public or I'd get run out of town."

[Blackhawk]

Sure he's scum. I've been putting up with Pence for 17 years now. He almost wrecked Indy with his anti-gay bullshit.

But while he may implement policies I despise, he'll do so without completely destroying the underlying infrastructure of the government (at least no more than the GOP norm.) He is also less likely to have a dementia fit and start challenging random world leaders to hand measuring contests, calling foreign dignitaries third-grade playground names, and ignoring experts as to the impact of his choices and getting involved in a land trade war in Asia.

We would suffer under Pence, but we could recover after Pence.

[noxiousdog]

Republican Congressman speaking with Erick Erickson (RedState/Never Trumper "Conservative"):

Be sure to read the comments. They like to eat their young.

[malchior]

“Trump just took a giant step towards actual welfare reform”

Spoiler:

I'm pretty sure it involved executive action that humiliates individual dignity and worsens the problem because Republicans roll that way nowadays. However I'll admit to not knowing if that is actually true, it is just a reasonably safe starting assumption.

[Isgrimnur]

It calls for a strengthened work requirement for able-bodied adults, building off the requirement established in the 1996 bipartisan welfare reform that requires able-bodied adults on food stamps to work, train or volunteer for at least 20 hours per week.

Despite evidence that work requirements work — cutting time spent on welfare in half, doubling incomes and moving adults into over 600 diverse industries — the Obama administration approved waivers for those requirements in most states, citing high unemployment and severe job shortages.

It's almost as if we were in a recession and jobs weren't just hanging from trees.

And I'm sure there won't be any politicization of the determination of "able-bodied".

[Daehawk]

[Pyperkub]

It calls for a strengthened work requirement for able-bodied adults, building off the requirement established in the 1996 bipartisan welfare reform that requires able-bodied adults on food stamps to work, train or volunteer for at least 20 hours per week.

Despite evidence that work requirements work — cutting time spent on welfare in half, doubling incomes and moving adults into over 600 diverse industries — the Obama administration approved waivers for those requirements in most states, citing high unemployment and severe job shortages.

It's almost as if we were in a recession and jobs weren't just hanging from trees.

And I'm sure there won't be any politicization of the determination of "able-bodied".

And yet Mar-A-Lago still needs 70 H2B visas...

[LawBeefaroni]

Ever been in a D&D campaign with a cringe-worthy roleplayer? I have and I hear their voice when reading Trump's tweets.

[Kraken]

When I see "Gas Killing Animal" all I can think of is farts. I wonder why this seems to resonate so deeply with a man who has no capacity for empathy, especially if (as I read yesterday) this is Assad's 8th gas attack since Trump blew up a runway a year ago.

[YellowKing]

This attack happens to be politically expedient. I fully expect a Syria campaign to be used as cover for the Rosenstein firing.

[pr0ner]

There really are Tweets for every occasion.

[Holman]

The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

[malchior]

The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

The GOP at its "finest".

[LordMortis]

If he is deep state, he must be very deep state indeed if Clinton's democrats are on record as against him as they are...

[gilraen]

The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

The GOP at its "finest".

Comey's book sales will go through the roof (if they wouldn't already).

Apparently Trumpsters learned nothing from their "Fire and Fury" experience.

[hepcat]

They learned how to spell collusion.

[Pyperkub]

The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

The GOP at its "finest".

Comey's book sales will go through the roof (if they wouldn't already).

Apparently Trumpsters learned nothing from their "Fire and Fury" experience.

I'm thinking that if Kelly resigns/is fired from the admin, his book would do even more business...

[Alefroth]

The RNC has launched a propaganda site to undermine James Comey before the release of his memoir next week: LyinComey

The GOP at its "finest".

Risky move putting Democrats' criticism of Comey out there, as the base is programmed to think whatever the opposite is of a liberal's view.

[LordMortis]

Risky move putting Democrats' criticism of Comey out there, as the base is programmed to think whatever the opposite is of a liberal's view.

The Deep State had just finished watching The Princess Bride but didn't realize that Donald Trump's party had spend the last five years building an immunity to iocade power.

[Paingod]

Comey's book sales will go through the roof (if they wouldn't already).

I am sorely tempted to buy this, but am pretty sure I know 98% of what I'd be interested in already and will catch the other 2% in the news the day after the book's release. If I buy it, it's to spite Trump and pad the pockets of someone he screwed.

[noxiousdog]

Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

[Defiant]

Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

Is there a tl/dr version?

[Pyperkub]

Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

Some interesting stuff, but he completely sidestepped the 1 trillion dollar question:

DUBNER: Between the tax act and the new budget, there’s a lot of spending going on. I’m curious: What happened to the old G.O.P. fiscal conservative reputation?

HASSETT: Well, I think that the president rightly prioritized a couple of major problems in his first year. And if you look at what’s happened to the Defense Department, that you could argue that it’s in a similar, difficult state and requires a lot of spending — if you look at the percentage of airplanes that can’t fly because they don’t have the parts, and so on. And so I think that in the first year it makes sense to prioritize, given that there’s only so much time on the legislative calendar to get things done. But I’ve written extensively over my career on the positive economic effects of fiscal consolidation, and that means that in the end, in the medium- and long-term, that deficits do matter a lot. And to the extent that growth disappoints, then pursuing some kind of long-run consolidation is something that will be inevitable. It’d just be a question of which administration will have to do it.

[noxiousdog]

Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

Is there a tl/dr version?

[synopsis]
The corporate tax cut was desired by Obama too, though not as significant of a cut.
Republicans prevented the President from aiming tax cuts toward the lower and middle class.
The president will read and pay attention to charts. He is not a pushover and asks good questions. He will change his mind if backed up with data. He believes strongly in the wisdom of crowds.
By lowering the corporate tax cut, you are disincentivizing moving money offshore.
Hassett thinks low growth is not a foregone conclusion. Dubner concurs there is a lot of debate.
Hassett argues that Economic Opportunity Zones are effectively the opposite of the Double Irish. Instead of sending money overseas, it can be directed to distressed communities.

Many designs in the tax cut are long term beneficial, so can't fairly be measured until 10 years have elapsed.

Hassett: It’s my belief we’re just back to normal, and the growth rate — so our growth-rate forecast for the next 10 years is below the median Economic Report of the President forecast, but significantly above the low-growth pessimistic outlook of the Obama administration in their last four years.
[/synopsis]

[Zarathud]

They learned how to spell collusion.

They had help.

[malchior]

So....Comey's book has an account of Trump asking Comey to look into the Pee tape to 'disprove it'...ahem. It's real.