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Viva Le Pen

For discussion of religion and politics

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Captain Caveman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Captain Caveman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:31 pm

Macron-Le Pen runoff. He's up about 25 points in the head-to-head. Can Rip pull off the upset?

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 3:12 pm

Some of the other candidates and major figures associated with their parties have already begun to endorse Macron for the run-off.
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Max Peck
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Max Peck » Sun Apr 23, 2017 3:21 pm

Ne comptez pas vos poules jusqu'à leur éclosion.
There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Captain Caveman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Captain Caveman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 3:26 pm

Max Peck wrote:Ne comptez pas vos poules jusqu'à leur éclosion.
Google translate informs me that this is very good advice. Especially if Putin has some dirty tricks up his sleeve over the next two weeks.

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 3:44 pm

Max Peck wrote:Ne comptez pas vos poules jusqu'à leur éclosion.
Oui, c'est vrai. But it's a different electoral environment, and one not so completely riven by all-or-nothing partisanship.

The Conservative Fillon and the Socialist Hamon have already endorsed the centrist Macron. I don't know if the far-left Melenchon (who was rising fast in the polls) has done so yet, but he surely will. Minor candidates will do so as well.

Fillon endorsing Macron is like George W. Bush endorsing Barack Obama. France is that aware of what Le Pen means.
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Max Peck
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Max Peck » Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:25 pm

All things being equal, there are those who calculate that Macron has a 96.8% probability of prevailing against Le Pen. I have no information wrt the probability of all things being equal.
There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:31 pm

The projected numbers are interesting.

Macron won 23.8%, Le Pen won 21.7%.

The fastest-rising other candidate was the far-left Melenchon (19.2%), who seemed to be drawing most of his support from the fall of the Socialist Hamon, who got 6.5% today but has fallen 10 points in the past six weeks.

Had Hamon fallen a little faster, the run-off could easily have been centrist vs the far-left candidate.
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Max Peck
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Max Peck » Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:37 pm

Apparently Mélenchon is anti-EU/NATO (among other things), so it may not be a given that his followers will flock to Macron rather than Le Pen.
There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:58 pm

Ugh. Right. He seems to be declining to endorse, at least today.

Shades of Summer 2016 Bernie, although the French have only two weeks.
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Max Peck
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Max Peck » Sun Apr 23, 2017 5:48 pm

A lot can happen in two weeks, especially given that a Le Pen victory would be YUGELY beneficial for Russia.
There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:03 pm

Well, at least Macron's lead is increasing. I thought the numbers were already in, but the Paris results are still being reported. That's a lot of votes still to count, and he is dominating there.
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Max Peck
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Max Peck » Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:14 pm

Nate Silver opines on the Macron-Le Pen matchup: Marine Le Pen Is In A Much Deeper Hole Than Trump Ever Was
In European elections since Trump’s win, in fact, the trend has been for nationalist candidates to perform disappointingly. Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom faded badly down the stretch run in the Dutch general election and then underperformed its polls on election day last month. Meanwhile, Austria’s Norbert Hofer, of the Freedom Party of Austria, considerably underperformed his polls in a presidential re-vote last December. Trump isn’t popular in Europe, and his victory may have done candidates who emulate his rhetoric no favors.

There’s still some uncertainty about the outcome, however. Although the polls haven’t systematically underestimated nationalist and right-wing parties, they also haven’t been all that accurate in pinning down their support, having come in both high and low in different elections. In cases since 2012 where the right-wing party polled at 25 percent or more, the polls missed the party’s actual support by an average of 3.6 percent of the vote. That translates to a true margin of error (or 95 percent confidence interval) of about plus or minus 9 percentage points. And because any vote that Le Pen gets is one that Macron won’t get, the margin of error for the gap between Le Pen and Macron is twice as large, or about 18 percentage points.

An 18-point margin of error is huge! But it still isn’t enough when you’re 26 points behind, as Le Pen is against Macron. If Le Pen if can significantly narrow her deficit with Macron over the next two weeks, Macron’s supporters will have reason to worry. If she still trails by something like 26 points on election day, however, a Le Pen victory would be essentially unprecedented. She could beat her polls by as much as Trump and Brexit combined and still lose to Macron by almost 20 points.
All things being equal... :coffee:

This earlier tweet is a good tl;dr for the article. :) https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 1577854977
There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:29 pm

Another point I've seen is that the major French polls were right on the nose. They predicted Le Pen at 22, and that's where she is.

This means there were no "shy" Le Pen voters, and also no sudden bump from this week's shooting in Paris.
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em2nought
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by em2nought » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:10 pm

Almost time to put that tri-color filter on my facebook image. :mrgreen:
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hepcat
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by hepcat » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:50 pm

Le Pen may still win, so hold on until after the results are in.
I beat a camel to death with a monkey. Can I do that?
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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:23 pm

Rip, em2nought, Trump, Alex Jones, David Duke, Farage, Assange, Putin, and ISIS.

You can't say Le Pen's not a uniter.
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Max Peck
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Max Peck » Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:31 am

I am shocked -- *shocked* -- at this unexpected turn of events.

Russian hackers 'target' presidential candidate Macron
Russian hackers are targeting the campaign of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, say security experts.

Phishing emails, malware and fake net domains were all being used as attack techniques, said Feike Hacquebord, from security company Trend Micro.

The attackers are believed to be part of the same group that targeted the US election.

Russia has denied that it is behind attacks aimed at Mr Macron.

In a report, Mr Hacquebord said the group behind the "aggressive" attacks was a collective of Russian hackers known widely as Fancy Bear, APT28 and Pawn Storm.

He said the group was using an extensive arsenal of high-tech con tricks to grab the login names, passwords and other credentials of staff aiding Mr Macron's bid to be the next French president.
I presume that Le Pen's campaign is reknowned for it's air-tight cybersecurity measures.
There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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stessier
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by stessier » Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:43 am

I think she said her son was on the case.
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
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Jaymann
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Jaymann » Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:14 am

Le Pen gets Le Pwned.
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Carpet_pissr
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Carpet_pissr » Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:24 am

baelthazar wrote:Yeah, its "Vive" in French.

Personally, I prefer her niece, Marion Marechal-Le Pen. Not politically, god no - they are a bunch of fascists. But she is pretty, so that is something.

Image
Pretty sure that's a poisonous plant she's grabbing there.

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Ralph-Wiggum
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Ralph-Wiggum » Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:46 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:
baelthazar wrote:Yeah, its "Vive" in French.

Personally, I prefer her niece, Marion Marechal-Le Pen. Not politically, god no - they are a bunch of fascists. But she is pretty, so that is something.

Image
Pretty sure that's a poisonous plant she's grabbing there.
That's just part one of the Le Pen plan to reduce immigration...

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Carpet_pissr
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Viva Le Pen

Post by Carpet_pissr » Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:29 pm

Confirmed: it's Oleander

I've got a few in my back yard, and while I've never had any problems with it, I sure wouldn't rub it like a fluffy kitty.

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Defiant
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Defiant » Tue May 02, 2017 6:59 pm

The results, released on Tuesday afternoon, showed that of more than 243,000 Mélenchon supporters who responded, 87,818 (36.1%) intended to spoil their vote, 84,682 (34.8%) planned to support Macron and 70,628 (29%) would not turn out for the second round. The figures suggest a total of 65% will not vote for Macron.
link

Doesn't sound like a scientifically conducted poll, however, so take it with a big grain of salt.

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em2nought
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by em2nought » Wed May 03, 2017 2:34 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:Confirmed: it's Oleander

I've got a few in my back yard, and while I've never had any problems with it, I sure wouldn't rub it like a fluffy kitty.
Oleander tends to get spider nests on it, so I definitely wouldn't wub it like a fluffy kitty. :wink:
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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Fri May 05, 2017 7:54 pm

In a totally coincidental replay of our elections, WikiLeaks just dumped a ton of the Macron campaign's emails out into the open.

What's crazy is that Le Pen hinted darkly that he should "expect bad news" a couple of days ago, similar to the way Trump surrogates said the same before the Podesta releases.

Weird, huh?
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geezer
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by geezer » Fri May 05, 2017 9:10 pm

Holman wrote:In a totally coincidental replay of our elections, WikiLeaks just dumped a ton of the Macron campaign's emails out into the open.

What's crazy is that Le Pen hinted darkly that he should "expect bad news" a couple of days ago, similar to the way Trump surrogates said the same before the Podesta releases.

Weird, huh?
I have trouble with the Wikileaks logic. I get that they think the establishment is corrupt, but I can't fathom why they think these ethnonationalist a-holes are preferable.

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Fri May 05, 2017 9:26 pm

geezer wrote:I have trouble with the Wikileaks logic. I get that they think the establishment is corrupt, but I can't fathom why they think these ethnonationalist a-holes are preferable.
WikiLeaks is aligned with Moscow, plain and simple, as they have been ever since Assange achieved full control of the organization a few years ago.

Nationalist/Far-Right parties across Europe are funded by Russia either because they support Russian aspirations in exchange or because they stand to weaken the EU and NATO. Putin wants a new European order that looks to Moscow rather than Washington and traditional Western politics. Authority and oligarchy appeal to amoral politicos like Le Pen and Farage; the racism is intended to win over disaffected whites.

Trumpism is just the American Lite version of this. In Eastern Europe, dissenters are already being jailed and even killed for standing up to it.

Fascism works. That's why we have to stop it.
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Rip » Fri May 05, 2017 10:18 pm

http://gotnews.com/emmanuel-macrons-tax ... ents-real/
I am an auditor with over 2 decades of experience in one of the Big Three accounting firms. I have extensive experience examining large corporations that have subsidiaries around the world, including in tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands. In the course of my career, I have uncovered cases of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. I have also uncovered falsified documents. I was asked by an investigative reporter to confirm the authenticity of the documents linked to Emmanuel Macron below, and since these documents have been made public I am now releasing my findings. It is broken down by each element and in order from the creation of the parent company to bank account in the tax haven. It concludes with my recommendation that the French government obtain a warrant to conduct further investigations into Emmanuel Macron’s financial activities.

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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Alefroth » Fri May 05, 2017 10:22 pm

Rip wrote:http://gotnews.com/emmanuel-macrons-tax ... ents-real/
I am an auditor with over 2 decades of experience in one of the Big Three accounting firms. I have extensive experience examining large corporations that have subsidiaries around the world, including in tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands. In the course of my career, I have uncovered cases of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. I have also uncovered falsified documents. I was asked by an investigative reporter to confirm the authenticity of the documents linked to Emmanuel Macron below, and since these documents have been made public I am now releasing my findings. It is broken down by each element and in order from the creation of the parent company to bank account in the tax haven. It concludes with my recommendation that the French government obtain a warrant to conduct further investigations into Emmanuel Macron’s financial activities.
That makes him smart.

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Fri May 05, 2017 10:32 pm

Rip wrote:http://gotnews.com/emmanuel-macrons-tax ... ents-real/
I am an auditor with over 2 decades of experience in one of the Big Three accounting firms. I have extensive experience examining large corporations that have subsidiaries around the world, including in tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands. In the course of my career, I have uncovered cases of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. I have also uncovered falsified documents. I was asked by an investigative reporter to confirm the authenticity of the documents linked to Emmanuel Macron below, and since these documents have been made public I am now releasing my findings. It is broken down by each element and in order from the creation of the parent company to bank account in the tax haven. It concludes with my recommendation that the French government obtain a warrant to conduct further investigations into Emmanuel Macron’s financial activities.
Gotnews.com? Really? Charles Johnson's site?

Was InfoWars down or something?
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Max Peck
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Max Peck » Fri May 05, 2017 11:23 pm

The timing of the dump is exquisite, given the French campaign regulations.
On Wednesday, hours before the beginning of a televised debate between Macron and Le Pen, Twitter bots spread rumors that Macron maintained offshore bank accounts. Le Pen then repeated the allegation in the debate, causing Macron to say that she was “subject to the diktats” of the Kremlin.

The exact contents of the documents leaked were not specified, although the campaign’s statement said real documents — such as emails from personal and professional accounts, contracts and accounting statements — were mixed in with false ones.

Unlike in the United States, campaigning in France comes to a hard stop a day before voters go to the polls. Candidates may not actively campaign in any way after the close of the campaign.

The disclosure of the documents just before the end of Friday means the Macron campaign will not be able to address the matter extensively Saturday.

Polls still give Macron, a former investment banker and Socialist finance minister, a considerable lead over Le Pen, at 63 percent to 37 percent of the vote.
As always, remember that the Russians have been caught leaking modified documents on more than one occasion in the past.
There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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gbasden
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by gbasden » Fri May 05, 2017 11:46 pm

I'm just shocked that once again Rip is happy to align himself with Putin as long as the end goal is to elect a right wing nationalist. I'm sure MSD is happy as a clam as well. God damn, this is bizarro Earth.

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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Zarathud » Sat May 06, 2017 12:23 am

Alefroth wrote:
Rip wrote:http://gotnews.com/emmanuel-macrons-tax ... ents-real/
I am an auditor with over 2 decades of experience in one of the Big Three accounting firms. I have extensive experience examining large corporations that have subsidiaries around the world, including in tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands. In the course of my career, I have uncovered cases of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. I have also uncovered falsified documents. I was asked by an investigative reporter to confirm the authenticity of the documents linked to Emmanuel Macron below, and since these documents have been made public I am now releasing my findings. It is broken down by each element and in order from the creation of the parent company to bank account in the tax haven. It concludes with my recommendation that the French government obtain a warrant to conduct further investigations into Emmanuel Macron’s financial activities.
That makes him smart.
It makes him paid to testify, but not enough to do so by publicly staking his reputation on the conclusion (if this is even a real person). You cannot audit, investigate or confirm the authenticity of these documents in two days.
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Alefroth
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Alefroth » Sat May 06, 2017 3:05 am

I was referring to Macron and paraphrasing Trump.

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sat May 06, 2017 7:44 am

gbasden wrote:I'm just shocked that once again Rip is happy to align himself with Putin as long as the end goal is to elect a right wing nationalist. I'm sure MSD is happy as a clam as well. God damn, this is bizarro Earth.
Not a puppet!

You're the puppet!

Vous êtes la marionnette!
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Max Peck
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Max Peck » Sat May 06, 2017 9:46 am

At least Le Pen isn't a puppet. She's just straight-up bought and paid for.
There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by em2nought » Sun May 07, 2017 1:24 pm

Turnout is sharply down, guess the lazy libs figured they had it in the bag and didn't bother to vote, hopefully for France. :wink: Maybe they'll be able to take this flag down finally. :wink: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39833831
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Sepiche » Sun May 07, 2017 2:01 pm

Ha! Wasn't even close.

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Holman
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by Holman » Sun May 07, 2017 2:03 pm

Enlarge Image
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em2nought
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Re: Viva Le Pen

Post by em2nought » Sun May 07, 2017 2:10 pm

Lazy nationalists? Somebody must have rigged this election, I blame Elbonia. :wink:
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