Octopus Overlords

Max Peck wrote:Ne comptez pas vos poules jusqu'à leur éclosion.

Max Peck wrote:Ne comptez pas vos poules jusqu'à leur éclosion.

In European elections since Trump’s win, in fact, the trend has been for nationalist candidates to perform disappointingly. Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom faded badly down the stretch run in the Dutch general election and then underperformed its polls on election day last month. Meanwhile, Austria’s Norbert Hofer, of the Freedom Party of Austria, considerably underperformed his polls in a presidential re-vote last December. Trump isn’t popular in Europe, and his victory may have done candidates who emulate his rhetoric no favors.

There’s still some uncertainty about the outcome, however. Although the polls haven’t systematically underestimated nationalist and right-wing parties, they also haven’t been all that accurate in pinning down their support, having come in both high and low in different elections. In cases since 2012 where the right-wing party polled at 25 percent or more, the polls missed the party’s actual support by an average of 3.6 percent of the vote. That translates to a true margin of error (or 95 percent confidence interval) of about plus or minus 9 percentage points. And because any vote that Le Pen gets is one that Macron won’t get, the margin of error for the gap between Le Pen and Macron is twice as large, or about 18 percentage points.

An 18-point margin of error is huge! But it still isn’t enough when you’re 26 points behind, as Le Pen is against Macron. If Le Pen if can significantly narrow her deficit with Macron over the next two weeks, Macron’s supporters will have reason to worry. If she still trails by something like 26 points on election day, however, a Le Pen victory would be essentially unprecedented. She could beat her polls by as much as Trump and Brexit combined and still lose to Macron by almost 20 points.

Russian hackers are targeting the campaign of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, say security experts.

Phishing emails, malware and fake net domains were all being used as attack techniques, said Feike Hacquebord, from security company Trend Micro.

The attackers are believed to be part of the same group that targeted the US election.

Russia has denied that it is behind attacks aimed at Mr Macron.

In a report, Mr Hacquebord said the group behind the "aggressive" attacks was a collective of Russian hackers known widely as Fancy Bear, APT28 and Pawn Storm.

He said the group was using an extensive arsenal of high-tech con tricks to grab the login names, passwords and other credentials of staff aiding Mr Macron's bid to be the next French president.

baelthazar wrote:Yeah, its "Vive" in French.

Personally, I prefer her niece, Marion Marechal-Le Pen. Not politically, god no - they are a bunch of fascists. But she is pretty, so that is something.

Carpet_pissr wrote:

baelthazar wrote:Yeah, its "Vive" in French.

Personally, I prefer her niece, Marion Marechal-Le Pen. Not politically, god no - they are a bunch of fascists. But she is pretty, so that is something.

Pretty sure that's a poisonous plant she's grabbing there.

The results, released on Tuesday afternoon, showed that of more than 243,000 Mélenchon supporters who responded, 87,818 (36.1%) intended to spoil their vote, 84,682 (34.8%) planned to support Macron and 70,628 (29%) would not turn out for the second round. The figures suggest a total of 65% will not vote for Macron.

Carpet_pissr wrote:Confirmed: it's Oleander

I've got a few in my back yard, and while I've never had any problems with it, I sure wouldn't rub it like a fluffy kitty.

Holman wrote:In a totally coincidental replay of our elections, WikiLeaks just dumped a ton of the Macron campaign's emails out into the open.

What's crazy is that Le Pen hinted darkly that he should "expect bad news" a couple of days ago, similar to the way Trump surrogates said the same before the Podesta releases.

Weird, huh?

geezer wrote:I have trouble with the Wikileaks logic. I get that they think the establishment is corrupt, but I can't fathom why they think these ethnonationalist a-holes are preferable.

I am an auditor with over 2 decades of experience in one of the Big Three accounting firms. I have extensive experience examining large corporations that have subsidiaries around the world, including in tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands. In the course of my career, I have uncovered cases of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. I have also uncovered falsified documents. I was asked by an investigative reporter to confirm the authenticity of the documents linked to Emmanuel Macron below, and since these documents have been made public I am now releasing my findings. It is broken down by each element and in order from the creation of the parent company to bank account in the tax haven. It concludes with my recommendation that the French government obtain a warrant to conduct further investigations into Emmanuel Macron’s financial activities.

Rip wrote:http://gotnews.com/emmanuel-macrons-tax ... ents-real/

I am an auditor with over 2 decades of experience in one of the Big Three accounting firms. I have extensive experience examining large corporations that have subsidiaries around the world, including in tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands. In the course of my career, I have uncovered cases of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. I have also uncovered falsified documents. I was asked by an investigative reporter to confirm the authenticity of the documents linked to Emmanuel Macron below, and since these documents have been made public I am now releasing my findings. It is broken down by each element and in order from the creation of the parent company to bank account in the tax haven. It concludes with my recommendation that the French government obtain a warrant to conduct further investigations into Emmanuel Macron’s financial activities.

Rip wrote:http://gotnews.com/emmanuel-macrons-tax ... ents-real/

I am an auditor with over 2 decades of experience in one of the Big Three accounting firms. I have extensive experience examining large corporations that have subsidiaries around the world, including in tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands. In the course of my career, I have uncovered cases of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. I have also uncovered falsified documents. I was asked by an investigative reporter to confirm the authenticity of the documents linked to Emmanuel Macron below, and since these documents have been made public I am now releasing my findings. It is broken down by each element and in order from the creation of the parent company to bank account in the tax haven. It concludes with my recommendation that the French government obtain a warrant to conduct further investigations into Emmanuel Macron’s financial activities.

On Wednesday, hours before the beginning of a televised debate between Macron and Le Pen, Twitter bots spread rumors that Macron maintained offshore bank accounts. Le Pen then repeated the allegation in the debate, causing Macron to say that she was “subject to the diktats” of the Kremlin.

The exact contents of the documents leaked were not specified, although the campaign’s statement said real documents — such as emails from personal and professional accounts, contracts and accounting statements — were mixed in with false ones.

Unlike in the United States, campaigning in France comes to a hard stop a day before voters go to the polls. Candidates may not actively campaign in any way after the close of the campaign.

The disclosure of the documents just before the end of Friday means the Macron campaign will not be able to address the matter extensively Saturday.

Polls still give Macron, a former investment banker and Socialist finance minister, a considerable lead over Le Pen, at 63 percent to 37 percent of the vote.

Alefroth wrote:

Rip wrote:http://gotnews.com/emmanuel-macrons-tax ... ents-real/

I am an auditor with over 2 decades of experience in one of the Big Three accounting firms. I have extensive experience examining large corporations that have subsidiaries around the world, including in tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands. In the course of my career, I have uncovered cases of embezzlement, fraud, and tax evasion. I have also uncovered falsified documents. I was asked by an investigative reporter to confirm the authenticity of the documents linked to Emmanuel Macron below, and since these documents have been made public I am now releasing my findings. It is broken down by each element and in order from the creation of the parent company to bank account in the tax haven. It concludes with my recommendation that the French government obtain a warrant to conduct further investigations into Emmanuel Macron’s financial activities.

That makes him smart.

gbasden wrote:I'm just shocked that once again Rip is happy to align himself with Putin as long as the end goal is to elect a right wing nationalist. I'm sure MSD is happy as a clam as well. God damn, this is bizarro Earth.