The strategy probably just needs more time.NickAragua wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:27 amI still don't get it, how could you *not* win with that?
Too Late To Start Thinking About 2018?
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- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Black Lives Matter.
- LordMortis
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
A friend posted this on FB and I think it's a worthwhile thunk to this dyed in the shade urban ocean coastal donkey blue message board.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ana-216273
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ana-216273
- Holman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Obviously the party is picking candidates who aren't child molester *enough*.El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:28 amThe strategy probably just needs more time.NickAragua wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:27 amI still don't get it, how could you *not* win with that?
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
- Moliere
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
When The Federalist thinks you're a bad candidate maybe Joe Arpaio should reconsider his candidacy.
Like Moore, Arpaio is an underperformer. “America’s toughest sheriff” lost his last campaign in Maricopa County by nearly 10 percent, even as Donald Trump won the state by 3.5 percent. Arpaio managed only 531,674 votes, while Trump racked up 747,361 in the same county.
And like Moore, Arpaio has little respect for the law. Trump recently pardoned Arpaio after he was found guilty of criminal contempt of court. Arpaio had engaged in racially discriminatory immigration sweeps in which he was detaining Latinos without reasonable belief they were in this country illegally, and without the legal authority to police such civil status violations.
Arpaio certainly has fans who believe he was just stepping up to do the job the Obama administration refused to do. But there are at least two problems with this defense.
First, President Obama used a similar justification to pursue immigration policies Congress refused to enact. Officials cannot act outside their authority simply because they think there is a power vacuum. It seems unlikely that Arpaio’s supporters think it would be justified for a liberal sheriff to claim the powers of the EPA or the IRS because Democrats thought the Trump administration was not doing enough. Second, during the years when the Obama administration authorized Arpaio to enforce immigration law, he was bad at it, and it made him a worse sheriff overall.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Much more likely to hold for the 2018 elections, since it's a state constitutional decision.
Black Lives Matter.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Another Republican representative retires...
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, both the most powerful and endangered member of the New Jersey congressional delegation, announced Monday that he would not seek re-election.
Frelinghuysen, R-11th Dist., gave no reason for retiring. He joins Rep. Frank LoBiondo, R-2nd Dist., as New Jersey lawmakers not seeking another term in the House. Both were elected in the Republican landslide of 1994.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I can't imagine why a New Jersey Republican does not want to seek reelection in 2018. Who could guess?
Black Lives Matter.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Perhaps he should send a thank-you note to Christie.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
NJ-11 might have flipped on its own without a Trump out there. It was teetering as it became more diverse on its own. With Trump dragging everyone down it almost certainly will fall absent a miracle.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Oh yeah. I mean, that's why he's not running - he would have been doomed.
Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Yeah my comment was more that laying this at anyone but perhaps Trump's feet is probably wrong. I guess you could lay it on the Republican brand in general but the demographics in this district is a bigger factor. Trump won it by 1%. Romney won it by 5%. McCain by 10%. It has been sliding quickly into D hands no matter what. The major towns have become younger as some older millennials have moved into some of the bigger more urban cities like Morristown and to a lesser extent Madison.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Trump's a big part of the problem, though. He's unusually unpopular. In a way Trump and Ryan are both dragging each other down, as they've both wound up governing in a way that exacerbated each other's preexisting political problems. And Trump (by being such a Neanderthal) has probably contributed to the GOP's problem with educated and urban voters.malchior wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:07 pm Yeah my comment was more that laying this at anyone but perhaps Trump's feet is probably wrong. I guess you could lay it on the Republican brand in general but the demographics in this district is a bigger factor. Trump won it by 1%. Romney won it by 5%. McCain by 10%. It has been sliding quickly into D hands no matter what. The major towns have become younger as some older millennials have moved into some of the bigger more urban cities like Morristown and to a lesser extent Madison.
In other words, these districts would probably be a problem anyway, but had Trump been governing in a moderate way (and, say, had he opposed the SALT deduction limitation), they would be in a much better position in these districts than they are now.
Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Not disagreeing - more so I think this one is a poor case for fitting to the 'national model'. It has a lot of unique characteristics. I'm also kind of curious what level of crazy ends up running. We don't traditionally have too many nutters in NJ excluding MacArthur. That might prove to be something of an indicator about how the Republicans deal with their self-created disaster in purple-on-the-verge of full on blue states.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
One issue is that a main factor driving Republican retirements (Trump is unpopular and GOP generic ballot polling is in the shitter) is also going to make it hard to recruit good replacement candidates. Which is a recipe for running a bunch of fresh-faced nutballs.malchior wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:37 pm Not disagreeing - more so I think this one is a poor case for fitting to the 'national model'. It has a lot of unique characteristics. I'm also kind of curious what level of crazy ends up running. We don't traditionally have too many nutters in NJ excluding MacArthur. That might prove to be something of an indicator about how the Republicans deal with their self-created disaster in purple-on-the-verge of full on blue states.
Black Lives Matter.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Praise be unto the Lord. The Lord's internal pollsters are true in all things.
Black Lives Matter.
- Holman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
At last! An honest politician!
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
- Sepiche
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Sims 3 and signature unclear.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Grasshopper (2013)
Billboard Advertising Costs
- In my home city of Boston (Go Sox!), bulletins range from $11,000 - $23,000 per 4 weeks.
- In sunny San Diego, bulletins range from $8,400 - $15,000 per 4 weeks.
- In Midwestern Milwaukee, bulletins range from $3,000 - $4,000 per 4 weeks.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Jaymann
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Apparently in Missouri you can get three for $2,500 per month.
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
Black Lives Matter
]==(:::::::::::::>
Black Lives Matter
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I don't know, but that is both hilarious and awesome. I would gladly pay (as a group, obviously) for something like that to counter the Lindsey Grahams, Trey Gowdys and Joe "You Lie!" Wilsons around here.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
He has his own Twitter:
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Pennsylvania Lawmaker Hopes to Impeach Justices Who Rejected Gerrymandered Map.
I strongly doubt that this is going to go anywhere, but shows how unhinged the GOP is these days.
I strongly doubt that this is going to go anywhere, but shows how unhinged the GOP is these days.
Black Lives Matter.
- Sepiche
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Yeah, my wife's been following him for a while. He's pretty entertaining.
- pr0ner
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- Remus West
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
and the Lord sayeth "thou shall not even pay lip service to separation any longer" Trump 2.0.18And the sovereigns in this issue are God, the people, and the legislature — in that order.”
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Speaking of Missouri and 2018 elections - Democrat just beat out the Republican for a state House seat in a special election (HD97).
Trump carried that district in 2016 by 28 points.
Trump carried that district in 2016 by 28 points.
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- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Scott Walker is outright refusing to call special elections for state Senate vacancies for the rest of the year, waiting until 2019 general elections. Presumably out of fear of those seats flipping.
Black Lives Matter.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Cue the lawsuits.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
There is something DEEPLY wrong with the GOP. From Gorsuch...to this nonsense...to Scarnati in PA refusing to obey the gerrymandering result in PA. They are in outright political revolt and the media still is treating it like it is just partisan bickering. This is deeply dangerous lawless behavior. I can't help but wonder when people will wake up to this.Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:27 amCue the lawsuits.
- Remus West
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
This is the part that infuriates me. It has been going on for years and is a huge reason why people do not trust the media and we end up with folks turning to Trump. Had the media been calling the Republicans out for their idiocy during the Obama administration this would have come to a head well before the election and people would have had a chance to wake up to the reality of our current situation.malchior wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:31 amThere is something DEEPLY wrong with the GOP. From Gorsuch...to this nonsense...to Scarnati in PA refusing to obey the gerrymandering result in PA. They are in outright political revolt and the media still is treating it like it is just partisan bickering. This is deeply dangerous lawless behavior. I can't help but wonder when people will wake up to this.Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:27 amCue the lawsuits.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I'm a little concerned that Republicans have significantly closed in the generic balloting over the past month. The 538 average has closed from being somewhere around D+11 to somewhere around D+6 at the moment. Still very, very likely that democrats will "win" the popular vote, such as it is, but since the common wisdom is that Democrats need to win by 6 - 8ish to have a good shot at retaking the House...that's troubling.
Still early, though, and the Missouri special elections are a good sign.
Still early, though, and the Missouri special elections are a good sign.
Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I think it is too early to worry. The American people are pretty much amnesiacs politically so I don't know if we can predict anything with certainty this far out. That said it still looks fairly good and they'll likely get a 2 or 3 seat swing in PA alone which helps the +5 math some.
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- Moliere
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Trump endorses Romney. Given Trump's track record it doesn't look good for Romney's campaign.
Romney's response is typical, but all the tweets that follow are worth reading. Plenty of past tweets between these two.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
- gilraen
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Democrats flip another district in a Kentucky special election:
Early Tuesday evening, Democrat Linda Belcher was pronounced the winner of the special election in Kentucky’s House District 49, a seat that Donald Trump carried by a 72-23 margin in 2016 and that went 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
- Pyperkub
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Revenge of the Soccer Moms?
The protagonists of the trends we report on are mainly college-educated suburban white women. We tell their stories not because college-educated white women are the most Democratic slice of the electorate (they aren’t) or because they are the most progressive voices within the Democratic Party (they aren’t) or because they have a special claim to lead the left moving forward (they don’t: nor do they pretend to). Rather, what we report here is that it is among these college-educated, middle-aged women in the suburbs that political practices have most changed under Trump. If your question is how the panorama of political possibility has shifted since November 2016, your story needs to begin here...
...Democratic Party officials seem notably less sophisticated about how organizing works. Nancy Reynolds, the retired librarian, worked throughout the fall of 2017 with a tight network of women (their partnership forged on a chartered bus to the January 2017 Women’s March) to coordinate phone canvassing and door-knocking across Hampton Township. They elected three Democrats to a five-person township council that had been all-Republican as long as anyone could remember
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- GreenGoo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Ho-Lee Sheee-t.gilraen wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:38 am Democrats flip another district in a Kentucky special election:Early Tuesday evening, Democrat Linda Belcher was pronounced the winner of the special election in Kentucky’s House District 49, a seat that Donald Trump carried by a 72-23 margin in 2016 and that went 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012.