Too Late To Start Thinking About 2018?

[El Guapo]

Am I following this right that under Walker's reading (assuming that Wisconsin has elections every two years, as is common) if a state rep died on say 5/20/2016, that he could decline to call a special election and leave the seat vacant until the next time that seat comes up in an election? Like, until 2019 (most likely)?

[Remus West]

News flash shocking absolutely nobody - Walker is an asshole with no morals or ethics.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Am I following this right that under Walker's reading (assuming that Wisconsin has elections every two years, as is common) if a state rep died on say 5/20/2016, that he could decline to call a special election and leave the seat vacant until the next time that seat comes up in an election? Like, until 2019 (most likely)?

As far as I understand it, that's his (ridiculous) argument.

[El Guapo]

Basically Walker and WI Republicans are trying to pass a law to change election laws so that Walker does not need to call special elections.

What's extra bonkers about this is that these are incredibly red districts. So it's frustrating but I suppose also a good sign for 2018 voting that they're this scared of how the votes will go in these districts.

[Moliere]

The Real Romney

Mitt Romney is the heavy favorite to replace Orrin Hatch in the Senate. But he still has to win a Republican primary. And even in Utah, where Romney is treated as royalty, this means proving his conservative bona fides.

“For instance, I’m a deficit hawk,” Romney assured a group of Republican women on Monday. “That makes me more conservative than a lot of Republicans and a lot of Democrats. I’m also more of a hawk on immigration than even the president. My view was these DACA kids shouldn’t all be allowed to stay in the country legally.” He continued: “Now I will accept the president’s view on this, but for me, I draw the line and say, those who’ve come illegally should not be given a special path to citizenship.”

It’s tempting to treat this as simple pandering: another example of Mitt Romney saying whatever it takes to win support from conservative voters. This is, after all, the same Mitt Romney who embraced mandatory health coverage as governor of Massachusetts, before disavowing it on the campaign trail. And the same Romney whose vocal criticism of Donald Trump didn’t stop him from auditioning to be secretary of state. But far from opportunistic, Romney’s hard line against DACA recipients reflects one of his true, long-standing political commitments. On most issues, the former Massachusetts governor may have been unconvincing as a “severely conservative” Republican, but on immigration, he appears to be a sincere hawk.

[gilraen]

I'm not surprised, Romney was the original "self-deportation" guy during the 2012 election.

[El Guapo]

Walker gives up, will schedule special elections.

[tjg_marantz]

Walker gives up, will schedule special elections.

Nice

[El Guapo]

Loyalty to Trump is the dominant theme in GOP primaries.

It's a little depressing. It's going to be awhile before the GOP is a sane party again.

[Kraken]

Loyalty to Trump is the dominant theme in GOP primaries.

It's a little depressing. It's going to be awhile before the GOP is a sane party again.

OTOH, it makes our nemeses easy to identify. You don't need to know anything beyond "Trump supporter."

[Jaymann]

Loyalty to Trump is the dominant theme in GOP primaries.

It's a little depressing. It's going to be awhile before the GOP is a sane party again.

OTOH, it makes our nemeses easy to identify. You don't need to know anything beyond "Trump supporter."

Since the rats don't seem interested in deserting a sinking ship, we can only hope the likes of Cruz, Walker and Ryan go down in the flood.

[Holman]

Remember when the likes of Ryan and McConnell were going to discipline Trump and make him govern like a Republican? They were going to resist his erratic impulses and prove that the party values were bigger than the man.

That lasted, what, two weeks in 2017? Maybe three?

[Zarathud]

Shows you how much they really valued those conservative principles.

[El Guapo]

Shows you how much they really valued those conservative principles.

Well, the thing is that it does show that. They value super regressive tax cuts and deregulation. And they're getting that - Trump is implementing a super hardline conservative agenda. What they don't value is democratic process, competence, or decency.

[Holman]

Another bellwether special election last night, this one statewide in Wisconsin for a Supreme Court seat. While the candidates are technically unaligned, the race was understood as a Dem-Gop proxy war, and both ran as such.

The "Dem" won by 11%.

[Isgrimnur]

Another bellwether special election last night, this one statewide in Wisconsin for a Supreme Court seat. While the candidates are technically unaligned, the race was understood as a Dem-Gop proxy war, and both ran as such.

The "Dem" won by 11%.

NYMag

What was generally expected to be another close Wisconsin barn-burner of an election turned into a romp, as progressive circuit county judge Rebecca Dallet easily defeated conservative circuit court judge Michael Screnock for a spot on the state’s Supreme Court. At the time of this writing, Dallet was winning by a landslide 56/44 margin, with nearly half the votes counted. As the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel noted: “It was the first time in 23 years that a liberal candidate who wasn’t an incumbent won a seat on the high court.”

Dallot’s win, which gives her a ten-year term, reduces the conservative majority on the Supreme Court to a spare 4-3 margin. (It also means six of the seven justices are women).

[Isgrimnur]

And the lone guy:

is not seeking reelection after his term ends.

in July of this year.

[El Guapo]

Scott Walker's freakin' out, man.



He warned you guys about the dangers of holding elections this year.

[YellowKing]

Yeah it's the left that is motivated by anger and hatred.

[LordMortis]

Yeah it's the left that is motivated by anger and hatred.

They are now. They are angry and hate what the GOP is doing to the country, to the people of the US, to our governance, to our covenant with the land we live in, to the world, and to the US relationship to it.

I can't say I blame them or that the gatosredswamp is one of optimism or a positive story.

[Moliere]

The Head-Spinning Possibilities in Arizona if John McCain Leaves the Senate

The Washington Post reports this week that the uncertainty around McCain, who has been absent from the Senate since December, has “set off a flurry of hushed conversations and concerns” inside the Republican Party, particularly about whom Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey should appoint as McCain’s successor if the need arises. “The problem,” as one unnamed Republican put it, is that there is no “logical” or “obvious” choice among the party’s rank-and-file. Ducey is up for re-election himself, and if he is looking only for an interim replacement, two relatively safe names jump out: McCain’s wife, Cindy, and former U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl. But neither is seen as an ideal candidate to hold the seat long-term.

The bigger question, then, is not whom Ducey would appoint to fill McCain’s seat, but instead whom voters would select if they have the chance. And that’s where things get complicated—not just in a still-hypothetical special election but also in the heavily watched regular Senate election in November.

Under the most common reading of the state’s election laws, if McCain leaves the Senate before May 30, the ensuing special election would follow the same schedule as a regular midterm one: Party primaries would be held in August, and then the race would be decided on Nov. 6. But if McCain were to leave after May 30, his appointed successor would most likely get a free ride until 2020. Given the way the current political winds are blowing, both nationally and in Arizona, the two parties’ electoral preferences are clear even if neither will say them aloud for obvious reasons: Republicans would rather defend the seat in 2020; Democrats would prefer to expand the battleground map this fall.

[El Guapo]

The Head-Spinning Possibilities in Arizona if John McCain Leaves the Senate

The Washington Post reports this week that the uncertainty around McCain, who has been absent from the Senate since December, has “set off a flurry of hushed conversations and concerns” inside the Republican Party, particularly about whom Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey should appoint as McCain’s successor if the need arises. “The problem,” as one unnamed Republican put it, is that there is no “logical” or “obvious” choice among the party’s rank-and-file. Ducey is up for re-election himself, and if he is looking only for an interim replacement, two relatively safe names jump out: McCain’s wife, Cindy, and former U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl. But neither is seen as an ideal candidate to hold the seat long-term.

The bigger question, then, is not whom Ducey would appoint to fill McCain’s seat, but instead whom voters would select if they have the chance. And that’s where things get complicated—not just in a still-hypothetical special election but also in the heavily watched regular Senate election in November.

Under the most common reading of the state’s election laws, if McCain leaves the Senate before May 30, the ensuing special election would follow the same schedule as a regular midterm one: Party primaries would be held in August, and then the race would be decided on Nov. 6. But if McCain were to leave after May 30, his appointed successor would most likely get a free ride until 2020. Given the way the current political winds are blowing, both nationally and in Arizona, the two parties’ electoral preferences are clear even if neither will say them aloud for obvious reasons: Republicans would rather defend the seat in 2020; Democrats would prefer to expand the battleground map this fall.

Kind of seems like McCain has a ton of leverage to essentially handpick his successor. A second Arizona race would *dramatically* increase the odds that the Democrats take the senate in 2018. If he's at all capable of staying until June 1, the sky's the limit in terms of what the GOP would agree to give him in exchange for doing so.

[Holman]

The Head-Spinning Possibilities in Arizona if John McCain Leaves the Senate

The Washington Post reports this week that the uncertainty around McCain, who has been absent from the Senate since December, has “set off a flurry of hushed conversations and concerns” inside the Republican Party, particularly about whom Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey should appoint as McCain’s successor if the need arises. “The problem,” as one unnamed Republican put it, is that there is no “logical” or “obvious” choice among the party’s rank-and-file. Ducey is up for re-election himself, and if he is looking only for an interim replacement, two relatively safe names jump out: McCain’s wife, Cindy, and former U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl. But neither is seen as an ideal candidate to hold the seat long-term.

The bigger question, then, is not whom Ducey would appoint to fill McCain’s seat, but instead whom voters would select if they have the chance. And that’s where things get complicated—not just in a still-hypothetical special election but also in the heavily watched regular Senate election in November.

Under the most common reading of the state’s election laws, if McCain leaves the Senate before May 30, the ensuing special election would follow the same schedule as a regular midterm one: Party primaries would be held in August, and then the race would be decided on Nov. 6. But if McCain were to leave after May 30, his appointed successor would most likely get a free ride until 2020. Given the way the current political winds are blowing, both nationally and in Arizona, the two parties’ electoral preferences are clear even if neither will say them aloud for obvious reasons: Republicans would rather defend the seat in 2020; Democrats would prefer to expand the battleground map this fall.

Kind of seems like McCain has a ton of leverage to essentially handpick his successor. A second Arizona race would *dramatically* increase the odds that the Democrats take the senate in 2018. If he's at all capable of staying until June 1, the sky's the limit in terms of what the GOP would agree to give him in exchange for doing so.

If McCain died this morning, Mitch McConnell would establish a rule by which his moldering corpse is still technically serving until June 1 as long as it is propped in his chair.

[Defiant]

A new poll shows Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn trailing former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen by double digits in the 2018 Senate race.

http://www.businessinsider.com/tennesse ... sen-2018-4

It's only one poll, of course, but the only other poll I could find for this race was from like 4 months ago and gave Bredesen a five point lead.

If this race ends up being competitive (or the Democrat keeps maintaining a lead), it ups the Democrats chances of winning the Senate a lot, I think.

[El Guapo]

A new poll shows Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn trailing former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen by double digits in the 2018 Senate race.

http://www.businessinsider.com/tennesse ... sen-2018-4

It's only one poll, of course, but the only other poll I could find for this race was from like 4 months ago and gave Bredesen a five point lead.

If this race ends up being competitive (or the Democrat keeps maintaining a lead), it ups the Democrats chances of winning the Senate a lot, I think.

Yeah, in terms of red state "offense" options, Tennessee seems the most promising (which is kind of funny, because Texas / Beto O'Rourke is the one getting all the attention among Democratic activists). Tennessee is a more red (and Trump has a better approval rating there) than Texas, but being a popular former governor is a huge advantage.

Democrats *should* win in Nevada and Arizona, and NV + AZ + TN would put them at 52 seats. They have to defend something ridiculous like 10 red states, though that's at least *possible* in a 2018 environment. Being able to lose one of those 10 is huge, as going 100% is going to be tough.

[Isgrimnur]

From inside Texas, I wouldn't pin your hopes on Beto. He's going hard on the gun control angle. In Texas.

[El Guapo]

From inside Texas, I wouldn't pin your hopes on Beto. He's going hard on the gun control angle. In Texas.

Has he come out against cowboy hats and things being unusually large yet? Also, does he favor or oppose messing with Texas?

[Ralph-Wiggum]

And what's his opinion on Pace Picante Sauce?

[LordMortis]

I'm reading on social media that the Teamsters Union and the Teacher's Union in Oklahoma have joined together and its totally not in the fake news. I'm not a fan of unions but that really does sound like part of the heart of a bright red state turning purple and rejecting "the virtue of selfishness" with the notion that we are a better people for having a symbiosis with each other and we do not exist to pull ourselves up by our own bootstraps.

[Isgrimnur]

I'm not a fan of unions

Are you a fan of corporate abuse and exploitation of workers? Because that's what unions were created in response to.

As with all human endeavors, there are good and bad examples of both types of players, but the playing field has been tilted against workers on the macro scale for the entirety of humanity.

[LordMortis]

Are you a fan of corporate abuse and exploitation of workers? Because that's what unions were created in response to.

What they were created for and how they are being used today and how effective they are for their stated goals are different things.

OtOH, what they were created for is quickly becoming more and more important again, which make me sad, and it probably why I'm softening on them and directly impacts my personal purple having a bluish shade over the last decade.

[Holman]

America's middle class came into being with labor unions, and it will die with them.

[Jeff V]

America's middle class came into being with labor unions, and it will die with them.

I disagree. There are a lot of sectors largely not represented by unions ever populated by middle class workers that do load-bearing tasks for corporations. Jack them around and they can be in for a world of hurt (think IT workers in particular).

Unions will continue to be important for government workers because those workers (including teachers) are not subject to the same market conditions that to a large extent protect non-union middle class workers in the general workforce. And I'm sure you'll still see them around in certain trades where they rule with an iron fist (ie, Teamsters, Electricians, etc.) They are, however, increasingly irrelevant at best in retail, service and manufacturing industries or any other riding on razor-thin margins. Outsourcing or automation becomes a better option at some point.

I think you need to pretty much look at the path members of a particular union are following to determine who is marching into a dead end. It's certainly not all of them. Union membership over all has been declining, though, and that leads to an overall decline in the middle class since many vocations that used to pay well for are no longer needed, and there are fewer lucrative options for those with a HS or less education.

[Holman]

An audience member asked Romney if he would give the same scathing speech about Trump today that he did before the election. "I look forward. I'm not going to look backward," Romney said.

Profile in courage.

[LordMortis]

How can be a shot across the bow if Trump said yesterday we already lost? Presumably as evidence of how good that war was and easy to win... or something.

[pr0ner]

Scott Walker's freakin' out, man.



He warned you guys about the dangers of holding elections this year.

One wonders what he thinks about Paul Nehlen in his own very state, who is the textbook definition of a candidate driven by anger and hatred.

[Defiant]

Green Party puts Dem seat at risk in Montana

Democrats are fighting to keep the Montana Green Party from fielding a candidate in the race against Sen. Jon Tester (D).

They suspect a GOP firm is behind the petition drive, and have filed a complaint with the Montana Commissioner of Political Practices alleging that a Nevada-based GOP firm violated state law by failing to report its spending on behalf of the Green Party.

The Montana Democratic Party says at least two of the signature gatherers identified themselves in social media postings as employees of Advanced Micro Targeting, a political consulting firm in Nevada that usually works with Republicans. Six of the 13 signature gatherers for the Green Party effort live in states other than Montana.

“The evidence suggests that the Republican-linked Nevada firm Advanced Micro Targeting, which has a history of shoddy and unethical petition-gathering practices, was behind this effort,” Nancy Keenan, the executive director of the Montana Democratic Party, said in a statement.

[LordMortis]

Who's running on the idea of impeachment? Republicans

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... spartandhp

They should concerned but while they scream about it the rest of know.

Polls show most voters are not supportive of impeachment at the moment, but if Mr. Trump were to fire the White House special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, the country would become about evenly divided on the question.

Though I must admit I'm mortified that we would be evenly split.

“If impeachment becomes a political tool instead of the end result of a credible investigation, then you are as guilty as Trump, in some ways, of taking a hammer blow to institutions,” said David Axelrod, former President Barack Obama’s onetime chief strategist, adding that it would also create risks in swing districts. “To say I’m for impeachment come hell or high water is to promise chaos.”

Amen.

In Mueller we trust and we'll live with what he finds until 2020 if doesn't get the dirt. If Mueller's corrupt, then I'll probably never know and DJT is better conman than I give him credit for.

[El Guapo]

Who's running on the idea of impeachment? Republicans

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... spartandhp

They should concerned but while they scream about it the rest of know.

Polls show most voters are not supportive of impeachment at the moment, but if Mr. Trump were to fire the White House special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, the country would become about evenly divided on the question.

Though I must admit I'm mortified that we would be evenly split.

“If impeachment becomes a political tool instead of the end result of a credible investigation, then you are as guilty as Trump, in some ways, of taking a hammer blow to institutions,” said David Axelrod, former President Barack Obama’s onetime chief strategist, adding that it would also create risks in swing districts. “To say I’m for impeachment come hell or high water is to promise chaos.”

Amen.

In Mueller we trust and we'll live with what he finds until 2020 if doesn't get the dirt. If Mueller's corrupt, then I'll probably never know and DJT is better conman than I give him credit for.

I agree with Axelrod in principle, but I do also think that there are defensible grounds for impeachment now. That said, as a political matter I think "if you elect us we will impeach Trump" would be a foolish message. Rather, the better message is "Congress is letting Trump run unchecked. If we are elected we will hold him accountable, and if investigations turn up impeachable evidence then we will act."

[El Guapo]

How Russia Could Steal the Midterms

Scary 538 hypothetical about what it would look like if Russia is actively planning on subverting election day 2018. Which seems plausible - I hope it's not true, but it seems decently likely that Russian hackers are doing things like messing with voter registration records.