Too Late To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Kraken »

All the Russians have to do is spread doubt. We'll supply the chaos.

I'd think that Putin would prefer the paralysis and conflict that will come with a D House, but he might be confident that he's better off letting a solid-R government keep undermining democracy.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis »

Thank goodness. Though I guess that means there will be no (public) owning the mess he was the largest peddler in creating. Now that he's had control and made an absolute shitshow, he can back to throwing stones and pretend he has the better plan.

As much as I want him to be accountable for being the POS he is, at the same time, I'd love to also hear McConnell is retiring and would have the same torch bearing ambivalence.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by TheMix »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:00 amtorch bearing ambivalence
Off topic, but I love that phrase. :D

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Smoove_B »

Defiant wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:43 am Paul Ryan not seeking reelection
Why would he? In addition to the GOP going down in flames, he managed to achieve his college-bro dream of taking healthcare from the poors. F Paul Ryan and F his idiotic idea of governance.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

Another retirement:

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »



Also, there's a special election in Arizona tomorrow. I'm not expecting the Democrat to win, but if the Republican only wins by high single digits, it would be inline with the previous Democratic over performance (of about ~17%) that we've seen in the special elections.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

538 guide to the AZ-8 special election tonight.

It's even more conservative than the PA district that Conor Lamb won, so for the Democrat to win here it would have to be the second biggest swing in federal special elections (after the AL Senate race), and the Republican candidate is not even an accused child molester this time, so it will definitely be an uphill battle. So just making it tight would be a great sign (although probably won't be covered as such in most articles).
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »



Does dbt live in Arizona? :wink:

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

Defiant wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:28 pm Don't count on the Millenials to save us.

Voter Turnout Stands At About 29 Percent In City For Illinois Primary
Turnout among millennial voters was the lowest, at only 3 percent.

Voters between 54-74 had the highest turnout of 42 percent.


More data to show that their turnout is low (just like it was for previous generations of youngsters)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:59 pm
Defiant wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:28 pm Don't count on the Millenials to save us.

Voter Turnout Stands At About 29 Percent In City For Illinois Primary
Turnout among millennial voters was the lowest, at only 3 percent.

Voters between 54-74 had the highest turnout of 42 percent.


More data to show that their turnout is low (just like it was for previous generations of youngsters)
That's not the turnout rate (for the PA district) though, right? It's the share of the electorate. It wouldn't be shocking if the % of people in that district who are 18 - 29 are fairly low.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:17 pm

That's not the turnout rate (for the PA district) though, right? It's the share of the electorate. It wouldn't be shocking if the % of people in that district who are 18 - 29 are fairly low.
Yeah, it's not, but it looks like 20-29 year olds are ~13.9% of the adults in the district (so, lets assume ~15% with 18 and 19 year olds). Which means anyone who is 30+ is at least ~2.7x more likely to have voted than someone under 30.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:29 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:17 pm

That's not the turnout rate (for the PA district) though, right? It's the share of the electorate. It wouldn't be shocking if the % of people in that district who are 18 - 29 are fairly low.
Yeah, it's not, but it looks like 20-29 year olds are ~13.9% of the adults in the district (so, lets assume ~15% with 18 and 19 year olds). Which means anyone who is 30+ is at least ~2.7x more likely to have voted than someone under 30.
So probably around a 40% turnout rate for the youth? Given the national turnout rate overall, especially in special elections, that doesn't strike me as especially terrible. I mean, it should be higher, but all turnout rates should be higher. But then, even aside from voter suppression, we tend not to make voting especially easy in general.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

FWIW in AZ-8 Lesko (R) currently leads 53 - 47. Which if it holds up, would be one of those Republican victories that foretell apocalyptic defeat in November (since this is otherwise something like an R+25 district).
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Apparently only 92 of the GOP's current 240 seats are more Republican than AZ-8.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:26 pm
So probably around a 40% turnout rate for the youth?
No. Back of the envelope calculations tell me that their turnout was ~12.9%, compared to about an average of 34.8% for the rest of the population (although that number no doubt goes up gradually, with the turnout among 30 year olds probably being close to that of 20 year olds, and those of 60 year olds being far higher.)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:27 pm FWIW in AZ-8 Lesko (R) currently leads 53 - 47. Which if it holds up, would be one of those Republican victories that foretell apocalyptic defeat in November (since this is otherwise something like an R+25 district).
Yeah, It represents a 19 point swing according to Nate Silver, and Nate Cohn points out that Republicans can't point to any easy excuses

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:38 pm Apparently only 92 of the GOP's current 240 seats are more Republican than AZ-8.
It probably depends on how you're measuring it. Fivethirtyeight, for example, uses the past two presidential results (75% 2016 and 25% 2012), and different standards might produce a somewhat different ordering (especially since there were some changes between Trump and previous Republican in some districts.) But yes, this should be terrifying to
a lot of Republicans.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:40 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:26 pm
So probably around a 40% turnout rate for the youth?
No. Back of the envelope calculations tell me that their turnout was ~12.9%, compared to about an average of 34.8% for the rest of the population (although that number no doubt goes up gradually, with the turnout among 30 year olds probably being close to that of 20 year olds, and those of 60 year olds being far higher.)
? Mind spelling out the math there? You said that 20 - 29 year olds are 13.9% of the adults, and estimated that adding in 18 and 19 year olds gets you to 15%. If 6% of the electorate was 18 - 29, isn't turnout 6/15 = 40%?

Though I realize now that I was taking electorate as a reference to people who voted, whereas it may just mean "people eligible to vote". But then I don't see any information in there about youth turnout if that's the case.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:51 pm
Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:40 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:26 pm
So probably around a 40% turnout rate for the youth?
No. Back of the envelope calculations tell me that their turnout was ~12.9%, compared to about an average of 34.8% for the rest of the population (although that number no doubt goes up gradually, with the turnout among 30 year olds probably being close to that of 20 year olds, and those of 60 year olds being far higher.)
? Mind spelling out the math there? You said that 20 - 29 year olds are 13.9% of the adults, and estimated that adding in 18 and 19 year olds gets you to 15%. If 6% of the electorate was 18 - 29, isn't turnout 6/15 = 40%?

Though I realize now that I was taking electorate as a reference to people who voted, whereas it may just mean "people eligible to vote". But then I don't see any information in there about youth turnout if that's the case.
The way the tweet is using it, electorate is indeed referring to those who voted. So if, say, six young people voted and 94 people who were older than 30 voted, then young people would still be 6% of the electorate, but their turnout would be a lot less than 1% (for that matter, so would those who were 30+). I did the math to reflect the actual number of people who voted.

(According to my estimate, about 12,730 youngsters voted out of a total of approximately 106,459 youngsters in the district - I estimated that by figuring out 6% of the total vote for the election and 15% of the total pop).
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

I do have to wonder about using Alabama. On the one hand, it might be a special case, because Roy Moore was a pretty bad candidate (although that alone doesn't explain the outcome). On the other hand, all the other elections are house elections while this was statewide, so should they be looking at the district level results of the race and counting each of them separately?
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman »

Defiant wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:27 am I do have to wonder about using Alabama. On the one hand, it might be a special case, because Roy Moore was a pretty bad candidate (although that alone doesn't explain the outcome). On the other hand, all the other elections are house elections while this was statewide, so should they be looking at the district level results of the race and counting each of them separately?
AL has seven congressional districts, and I don't think any of them shifted R for Roy Moore--just some more than others. Breaking them out would give you more granularity, but half your list would be the Moore race.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:07 am
Defiant wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:27 am I do have to wonder about using Alabama. On the one hand, it might be a special case, because Roy Moore was a pretty bad candidate (although that alone doesn't explain the outcome). On the other hand, all the other elections are house elections while this was statewide, so should they be looking at the district level results of the race and counting each of them separately?
AL has seven congressional districts, and I don't think any of them shifted R for Roy Moore--just some more than others. Breaking them out would give you more granularity, but half your list would be the Moore race.
Also the race was already showing a large shift towards Jones before the assault allegations surface - Moore was maybe up mid-single digits. If you want you can knock a few points off the Alabama result, but it's not going to change the average much.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by em2nought »

Stay frosty my friends. :wink:
‘Blue Wave’ Fizzles as AP Declares Republican Winner of Arizona Special Congressional Election

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government ... -election/
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman »

Yes, a 19-point D swing between evenly matched candidates in a dark-red district definitely shows that the Republicans have nothing to worry about.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

Holman wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:07 am
Defiant wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:27 am I do have to wonder about using Alabama. On the one hand, it might be a special case, because Roy Moore was a pretty bad candidate (although that alone doesn't explain the outcome). On the other hand, all the other elections are house elections while this was statewide, so should they be looking at the district level results of the race and counting each of them separately?
AL has seven congressional districts, and I don't think any of them shifted R for Roy Moore--just some more than others. Breaking them out would give you more granularity, but half your list would be the Moore race.
You wouldn't need to break them out (you could adjust the average without it). And given that the size of the race was seven times as big (with a lot more potential voters and actual voters), it should have a lot more data in it than other elections.

But still, you're right - the Moore race was highly unusual, which makes the data more dubious. If it were a generic race I'd probably be more willing to do so, although even then, it is biasing it towards a particular type of environment (a deep red southern state).
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo »

Somehow those 12 million illegals weren't able to pull it off. The international Jewish conspiracy needs to cough up more dough if they are going to take sheriff Joe's state!
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Just start screen-capping all these "Blue Wave Fizzles" remarks and save them for November.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Because politics is no less longer about being right or wrong. It's about sticking it to the other side.

:sigh:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by pr0ner »

Holman wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:48 am Yes, a 19-point D swing between evenly matched candidates in a dark-red district definitely shows that the Republicans have nothing to worry about.
Sadly, em2nought's point is definitely how a lot on the far right are viewing last night's AZ result.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by em2nought »

pr0ner wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:54 am Sadly, em2nought's point is definitely how a lot on the far right are viewing last night's AZ result.
Shouldn't be a point of sadness for y'all. Should mean that our eyes are closed as much as yours were in Nov 2016 when Trump walked off with the electoral college.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by pr0ner »

Two things:

1) I'm not a liberal. I don't like Trump because of what he and his cronies have done to totally wreck what was left of the Republican party.

2) Your argument is terrible, and 2016 data off the back of a terribly run Clinton campaign (and other missteps elsewhere) does not reflect what's going on in 2018.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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pr0ner wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:54 am
Holman wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:48 am Yes, a 19-point D swing between evenly matched candidates in a dark-red district definitely shows that the Republicans have nothing to worry about.
Sadly, em2nought's point is definitely how a lot on the far right are viewing last night's AZ result.

What else are they going to say? Everything about it other than that it was a win is pretty grim, so GOP partisans are going to hammer home the "Republican win" part and ignore literally everything else.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

Defiant wrote: Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:56 am
A new poll shows Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn trailing former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen by double digits in the 2018 Senate race.
http://www.businessinsider.com/tennesse ... sen-2018-4

It's only one poll, of course, but the only other poll I could find for this race was from like 4 months ago and gave Bredesen a five point lead.

If this race ends up being competitive (or the Democrat keeps maintaining a lead), it ups the Democrats chances of winning the Senate a lot, I think.

And now a third poll: Tennessee poll: Democrat Phil Bredesen holds narrow lead over Republican Marsha Blackburn in U.S. Senate race
The April Mason-Dixon Tennessee poll shows Bredesen has 46 percent voter support statewide, while Blackburn comes in at 43 percent. Eleven percent are undecided.
Blackburn's support is stronger among men, white voters and Republicans, though 12 percent of Republicans showed support for Democrat Bredesen. Bredesen has more support among women, voters under the age of 50, black voters, Democrats and independents. Only 4 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Republican Blackburn.

Both candidates have relatively equal recognition, but Bredesen has an 8 percent higher favorability. This is despite Blackburn having received endorsements from both President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence on Twitter.
FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings gives Mason-Dixon a 1% bias towards Republicans.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by YellowKing »

I highly doubt "weak candidate" alone can account for double digit swings, particularly in red states.

By the same token, I agree with Bill Kristol somewhat in that I don't think people are voting for the Democratic agenda as much as they are voting against the Republican one.

We've reached a point where we no longer vote for the candidate who agrees with our ideas. We vote for the candidate whose ideas we have conformed to.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

YellowKing wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:21 pm I highly doubt "weak candidate" alone can account for double digit swings, particularly in red states.

By the same token, I agree with Bill Kristol somewhat in that I don't think people are voting for the Democratic agenda as much as they are voting against the Republican one.

We've reached a point where we no longer vote for the candidate who agrees with our ideas. We vote for the candidate whose ideas we have conformed to.
The whole "weak candidate" thing in general is kind of silly and subjective. Mostly people define weak candidates retroactively - they lost, therefore they were a weak candidate. For partisans it also has the effect of taking the party and its role off the hook.

Like, Martha Coakley is a prototypical "weak candidate". She definitely didn't light up a room, but at the same time if she runs the exact same race that she did only in 2008 rather than 2010, then she's probably now a two-term Senator looking ahead to an easy reelection campaign in 2020.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by malchior »

pr0ner wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:54 amSadly, em2nought's point is definitely how a lot on the far right are viewing last night's AZ result.
This isn't sad in my book. Reasons for those idiots to not turnout are welcome.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:28 pm
The whole "weak candidate" thing in general is kind of silly and subjective. Mostly people define weak candidates retroactively - they lost, therefore they were a weak candidate. For partisans it also has the effect of taking the party and its role off the hook.

Like, Martha Coakley is a prototypical "weak candidate". She definitely didn't light up a room, but at the same time if she runs the exact same race that she did only in 2008 rather than 2010, then she's probably now a two-term Senator looking ahead to an easy reelection campaign in 2020.
Sure, some of it is luck, like which year your election is in, but there are concrete (and possibly quantifiable) things that you can point to. What kind of campaign do they run? Are they proactive? Do they try to appeal to various different constituencies? Do they open a dialogue with community leaders? Are they responsive to their constituents? Are they knowledgeable on the issues, and know which issues to prioritize? Do they think on their feat and thus are able to give good responses to questions? Do they have charisma? Are they a good speaker? And so on.
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