Too Late To Start Thinking About 2018?

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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

NickAragua wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:27 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:23 am
Holman wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:13 am Dems just won a state-level special election in a Wisconsin district they haven't held in 20 years.

In 2016 Trump won it by 17 points and the R incumbent by 26. Last night the Dem won it by 9.
Wow. Even in light of other special election results, a 26 or 35 point swing (depending on your comparison point) is pretty incredible.

Was there anything special about the candidates? Did the GOP use their tried-and-true "run a child molester" strategy?
I still don't get it, how could you *not* win with that?
The strategy probably just needs more time.
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LordMortis
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis »

A friend posted this on FB and I think it's a worthwhile thunk to this dyed in the shade urban ocean coastal donkey blue message board.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ana-216273
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:28 am
NickAragua wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:27 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:23 am
Holman wrote: Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:13 am Dems just won a state-level special election in a Wisconsin district they haven't held in 20 years.

In 2016 Trump won it by 17 points and the R incumbent by 26. Last night the Dem won it by 9.
Wow. Even in light of other special election results, a 26 or 35 point swing (depending on your comparison point) is pretty incredible.

Was there anything special about the candidates? Did the GOP use their tried-and-true "run a child molester" strategy?
I still don't get it, how could you *not* win with that?
The strategy probably just needs more time.
Obviously the party is picking candidates who aren't child molester *enough*.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Moliere »

When The Federalist thinks you're a bad candidate maybe Joe Arpaio should reconsider his candidacy.
Like Moore, Arpaio is an underperformer. “America’s toughest sheriff” lost his last campaign in Maricopa County by nearly 10 percent, even as Donald Trump won the state by 3.5 percent. Arpaio managed only 531,674 votes, while Trump racked up 747,361 in the same county.

And like Moore, Arpaio has little respect for the law. Trump recently pardoned Arpaio after he was found guilty of criminal contempt of court. Arpaio had engaged in racially discriminatory immigration sweeps in which he was detaining Latinos without reasonable belief they were in this country illegally, and without the legal authority to police such civil status violations.

Arpaio certainly has fans who believe he was just stepping up to do the job the Obama administration refused to do. But there are at least two problems with this defense.

First, President Obama used a similar justification to pursue immigration policies Congress refused to enact. Officials cannot act outside their authority simply because they think there is a power vacuum. It seems unlikely that Arpaio’s supporters think it would be justified for a liberal sheriff to claim the powers of the EPA or the IRS because Democrats thought the Trump administration was not doing enough. Second, during the years when the Obama administration authorized Arpaio to enforce immigration law, he was bad at it, and it made him a worse sheriff overall.
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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Much more likely to hold for the 2018 elections, since it's a state constitutional decision.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

Another Republican representative retires...

Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, both the most powerful and endangered member of the New Jersey congressional delegation, announced Monday that he would not seek re-election.

Frelinghuysen, R-11th Dist., gave no reason for retiring. He joins Rep. Frank LoBiondo, R-2nd Dist., as New Jersey lawmakers not seeking another term in the House. Both were elected in the Republican landslide of 1994.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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I can't imagine why a New Jersey Republican does not want to seek reelection in 2018. Who could guess?
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Isgrimnur »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:21 pm I can't imagine why a New Jersey Republican does not want to seek reelection in 2018. Who could guess?
Perhaps he should send a thank-you note to Christie.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:48 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:21 pm I can't imagine why a New Jersey Republican does not want to seek reelection in 2018. Who could guess?
Perhaps he should send a thank-you note to Christie.
And to Paul Ryan and Trump.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by malchior »

NJ-11 might have flipped on its own without a Trump out there. It was teetering as it became more diverse on its own. With Trump dragging everyone down it almost certainly will fall absent a miracle.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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malchior wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:07 pm NJ-11 might have flipped on its own without a Trump out there. It was teetering as it became more diverse on its own. With Trump dragging everyone down it almost certainly will fall absent a miracle.
Oh yeah. I mean, that's why he's not running - he would have been doomed.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by malchior »

Yeah my comment was more that laying this at anyone but perhaps Trump's feet is probably wrong. I guess you could lay it on the Republican brand in general but the demographics in this district is a bigger factor. Trump won it by 1%. Romney won it by 5%. McCain by 10%. It has been sliding quickly into D hands no matter what. The major towns have become younger as some older millennials have moved into some of the bigger more urban cities like Morristown and to a lesser extent Madison.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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malchior wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:07 pm Yeah my comment was more that laying this at anyone but perhaps Trump's feet is probably wrong. I guess you could lay it on the Republican brand in general but the demographics in this district is a bigger factor. Trump won it by 1%. Romney won it by 5%. McCain by 10%. It has been sliding quickly into D hands no matter what. The major towns have become younger as some older millennials have moved into some of the bigger more urban cities like Morristown and to a lesser extent Madison.
Trump's a big part of the problem, though. He's unusually unpopular. In a way Trump and Ryan are both dragging each other down, as they've both wound up governing in a way that exacerbated each other's preexisting political problems. And Trump (by being such a Neanderthal) has probably contributed to the GOP's problem with educated and urban voters.

In other words, these districts would probably be a problem anyway, but had Trump been governing in a moderate way (and, say, had he opposed the SALT deduction limitation), they would be in a much better position in these districts than they are now.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by malchior »

Not disagreeing - more so I think this one is a poor case for fitting to the 'national model'. It has a lot of unique characteristics. I'm also kind of curious what level of crazy ends up running. We don't traditionally have too many nutters in NJ excluding MacArthur. That might prove to be something of an indicator about how the Republicans deal with their self-created disaster in purple-on-the-verge of full on blue states.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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malchior wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:37 pm Not disagreeing - more so I think this one is a poor case for fitting to the 'national model'. It has a lot of unique characteristics. I'm also kind of curious what level of crazy ends up running. We don't traditionally have too many nutters in NJ excluding MacArthur. That might prove to be something of an indicator about how the Republicans deal with their self-created disaster in purple-on-the-verge of full on blue states.
One issue is that a main factor driving Republican retirements (Trump is unpopular and GOP generic ballot polling is in the shitter) is also going to make it hard to recruit good replacement candidates. Which is a recipe for running a bunch of fresh-faced nutballs.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Praise be unto the Lord. The Lord's internal pollsters are true in all things.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman »

At last! An honest politician!
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Enlarge Image
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Sepiche wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:00 pm Enlarge Image
Who has the money for these glorious things?
Sims 3 and signature unclear.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Grasshopper (2013)
Billboard Advertising Costs
  • In my home city of Boston (Go Sox!), bulletins range from $11,000 - $23,000 per 4 weeks.
  • In sunny San Diego, bulletins range from $8,400 - $15,000 per 4 weeks.
  • In Midwestern Milwaukee, bulletins range from $3,000 - $4,000 per 4 weeks.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Apparently in Missouri you can get three for $2,500 per month.
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:28 am
Sepiche wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:00 pm Enlarge Image
Who has the money for these glorious things?
I don't know, but that is both hilarious and awesome. I would gladly pay (as a group, obviously) for something like that to counter the Lindsey Grahams, Trey Gowdys and Joe "You Lie!" Wilsons around here.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Isgrimnur »

He has his own Twitter:

It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Pennsylvania Lawmaker Hopes to Impeach Justices Who Rejected Gerrymandered Map.

I strongly doubt that this is going to go anywhere, but shows how unhinged the GOP is these days.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Yeah, my wife's been following him for a while. He's pretty entertaining.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Jaymann wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:32 am Apparently in Missouri you can get three for $2,500 per month.
I see what you did there.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Remus West »

And the sovereigns in this issue are God, the people, and the legislature — in that order.”
and the Lord sayeth "thou shall not even pay lip service to separation any longer" Trump 2.0.18
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by gilraen »

Speaking of Missouri and 2018 elections - Democrat just beat out the Republican for a state House seat in a special election (HD97).

Trump carried that district in 2016 by 28 points.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

gilraen wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:35 pm Speaking of Missouri and 2018 elections - Democrat just beat out the Republican for a state House seat in a special election (HD97).

Trump carried that district in 2016 by 28 points.
Scott Walker is outright refusing to call special elections for state Senate vacancies for the rest of the year, waiting until 2019 general elections. Presumably out of fear of those seats flipping.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Isgrimnur »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:33 am
gilraen wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:35 pm Speaking of Missouri and 2018 elections - Democrat just beat out the Republican for a state House seat in a special election (HD97).

Trump carried that district in 2016 by 28 points.
Scott Walker is outright refusing to call special elections for state Senate vacancies for the rest of the year, waiting until 2019 general elections. Presumably out of fear of those seats flipping.
Cue the lawsuits.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by malchior »

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:27 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:33 am
gilraen wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:35 pm Speaking of Missouri and 2018 elections - Democrat just beat out the Republican for a state House seat in a special election (HD97).

Trump carried that district in 2016 by 28 points.
Scott Walker is outright refusing to call special elections for state Senate vacancies for the rest of the year, waiting until 2019 general elections. Presumably out of fear of those seats flipping.
Cue the lawsuits.
There is something DEEPLY wrong with the GOP. From Gorsuch...to this nonsense...to Scarnati in PA refusing to obey the gerrymandering result in PA. They are in outright political revolt and the media still is treating it like it is just partisan bickering. This is deeply dangerous lawless behavior. I can't help but wonder when people will wake up to this.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Remus West »

malchior wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:31 am
Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:27 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:33 am
gilraen wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:35 pm Speaking of Missouri and 2018 elections - Democrat just beat out the Republican for a state House seat in a special election (HD97).

Trump carried that district in 2016 by 28 points.
Scott Walker is outright refusing to call special elections for state Senate vacancies for the rest of the year, waiting until 2019 general elections. Presumably out of fear of those seats flipping.
Cue the lawsuits.
There is something DEEPLY wrong with the GOP. From Gorsuch...to this nonsense...to Scarnati in PA refusing to obey the gerrymandering result in PA. They are in outright political revolt and the media still is treating it like it is just partisan bickering. This is deeply dangerous lawless behavior. I can't help but wonder when people will wake up to this.
This is the part that infuriates me. It has been going on for years and is a huge reason why people do not trust the media and we end up with folks turning to Trump. Had the media been calling the Republicans out for their idiocy during the Obama administration this would have come to a head well before the election and people would have had a chance to wake up to the reality of our current situation.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

I'm a little concerned that Republicans have significantly closed in the generic balloting over the past month. The 538 average has closed from being somewhere around D+11 to somewhere around D+6 at the moment. Still very, very likely that democrats will "win" the popular vote, such as it is, but since the common wisdom is that Democrats need to win by 6 - 8ish to have a good shot at retaking the House...that's troubling.

Still early, though, and the Missouri special elections are a good sign.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by malchior »

I think it is too early to worry. The American people are pretty much amnesiacs politically so I don't know if we can predict anything with certainty this far out. That said it still looks fairly good and they'll likely get a 2 or 3 seat swing in PA alone which helps the +5 math some.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

New PA congressional map
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Moliere »



Trump endorses Romney. Given Trump's track record it doesn't look good for Romney's campaign.



Romney's response is typical, but all the tweets that follow are worth reading. Plenty of past tweets between these two. :pop:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by gilraen »

Democrats flip another district in a Kentucky special election:
Early Tuesday evening, Democrat Linda Belcher was pronounced the winner of the special election in Kentucky’s House District 49, a seat that Donald Trump carried by a 72-23 margin in 2016 and that went 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Pyperkub »

Revenge of the Soccer Moms?
The protagonists of the trends we report on are mainly college-educated suburban white women. We tell their stories not because college-educated white women are the most Democratic slice of the electorate (they aren’t) or because they are the most progressive voices within the Democratic Party (they aren’t) or because they have a special claim to lead the left moving forward (they don’t: nor do they pretend to). Rather, what we report here is that it is among these college-educated, middle-aged women in the suburbs that political practices have most changed under Trump. If your question is how the panorama of political possibility has shifted since November 2016, your story needs to begin here...

...Democratic Party officials seem notably less sophisticated about how organizing works. Nancy Reynolds, the retired librarian, worked throughout the fall of 2017 with a tight network of women (their partnership forged on a chartered bus to the January 2017 Women’s March) to coordinate phone canvassing and door-knocking across Hampton Township. They elected three Democrats to a five-person township council that had been all-Republican as long as anyone could remember
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo »

gilraen wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:38 am Democrats flip another district in a Kentucky special election:
Early Tuesday evening, Democrat Linda Belcher was pronounced the winner of the special election in Kentucky’s House District 49, a seat that Donald Trump carried by a 72-23 margin in 2016 and that went 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Ho-Lee Sheee-t.
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