Too Late To Start Thinking About 2018?

[YellowKing]

I'm really hoping that the polls are not capturing a contingent of "unknowns" that are going to swing hard left in the same way that unknowns handed Trump the presidency.

In other words, is it possible the polls (which are already very favorable to Democrats) are under-representing the wave?

Just anecdotally I know a lot of Trump voters or those who did not vote at all who are very much regretting their decision. They're likely to turn out for the opportunity to correct their mistake.

[stessier]

I know I live in a red state, but I've seen no evidence at all of flagging support for Trump. If the election were held today in SC, I'd be shocked if he didn't do better than he did in 2016.

[El Guapo]

I know I live in a red state, but I've seen no evidence at all of flagging support for Trump. If the election were held today in SC, I'd be shocked if he didn't do better than he did in 2016.

Yeah, but to be fair, South Carolina has a long history of political insanity. It's kind of its thing. It was for secession decades before it was cool, for example.

[Defiant]

In terms of the governor races, I haven't looked at it in a long while (in part because there's nothing like 538's congressional models for the governor's races yet, and other than maybe 2 or 3 races, they really haven't been hitting the news media much), but from what I remember a couple of months ago, there were maybe around 10 competitive races, almost all of them currently held by Republicans.

[stessier]

I know I live in a red state, but I've seen no evidence at all of flagging support for Trump. If the election were held today in SC, I'd be shocked if he didn't do better than he did in 2016.

Yeah, but to be fair, South Carolina has a long history of political insanity. It's kind of its thing. It was for secession decades before it was cool, for example.

Ah...I guess I'm surrounded by trendsetters then. Yay?

[El Guapo]

In terms of the governor races, I haven't looked at it in a long while (in part because there's nothing like 538's congressional models for the governor's races yet, and other than maybe 2 or 3 races, they really haven't been hitting the news media much), but from what I remember a couple of months ago, there were maybe around 10 competitive races, almost all of them currently held by Republicans.

Democrats are likely to gain a material number of governorships. In large part that's a factor of it being kind of like a reverse Senate map - they're overwhelming states with current Republican governors, which by definition means there are very limited pickup opportunities for Republicans.

Here are the current RCP views.

2 "likely dem" (1R incumbent, 1D)
7 "leans dem" (4D, 3R)
8 "tossups" (7R, 1D)
1 "leans Rep" (1R incumbent)
6 "likely Rep" (5 R, 1 independent (AK)).

[El Guapo]

So if you give the "leans/likely" to the side that's leading, and divide the tossups 50/50, Democrats would gain 7 governorships. Though given the current political environment, I think it's more likely that Democrats would do at least one or two pickups better than that.

[Archinerd]

I know I live in a red state, but I've seen no evidence at all of flagging support for Trump. If the election were held today in SC, I'd be shocked if he didn't do better than he did in 2016.

Try telling your neighbors that all the hurricanes you've been getting are God's Wrath for continuing to support the Anti-Christ. In a way, it's kind of true considering his position on climate change.

[Jeff V]

I know I live in a red state, but I've seen no evidence at all of flagging support for Trump. If the election were held today in SC, I'd be shocked if he didn't do better than he did in 2016.

Yeah, but to be fair, South Carolina has a long history of political insanity. It's kind of its thing. It was for secession decades before it was cool, for example.

Ah...I guess I'm surrounded by trendsetters then. Yay?

You're just lucky Lincoln didn't hold a grudge. He should have demoted SC to the status of US Territory...had he done so, you'd be experiencing all the same clout enjoyed by Guam.

[Isgrimnur]

Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.

[Jeff V]

Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.

Just as long as it's irrelevant, I'm ok with that.

[YellowKing]

Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.

No offense to South Carolina, but I don't want none of that.

[El Guapo]

Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.

No offense to South Carolina, but I don't want none of that.

Congratulations on being the sane Carolina.

Though you're going to need to oust your state GOP leaders if you want to retain that title.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.

No offense to South Carolina, but I don't want none of that.

+1, except for the "no offense" part.

Congratulations on being the sane Carolina.

Though you're going to need to oust your state GOP leaders if you want to retain that title.

When the politics in North Carolina are considered the sane ones, you're in bad shape.

[YellowKing]

I got my voter info pamphlet today and the legislature is already trying to sneak in a voter ID amendment on the ballot. The crazy thing is not only does the amendment NOT specify what forms of ID will be acceptable, but they also provided no cost estimates to taxpayers. It's literally just an open ended blank check for them to pass whatever form of voter suppression they want.

They're also trying to sneak in some bullshit thing to limit the governor's power to appoint judges, where the legislature would come up with two nominees that he could pick from. Clearly designed to prevent Cooper from placing any Democratic judges on the bench.

The final bit of chicanery is something to curtail some current bipartisan panel from 9 members to 8, and remove all non-affiliated (independents) from the panel. Again, clearly designed to give the current majority the upper hand.

Of course, all these are hidden among other amendments that ordinary NCers will totally get behind - more rights for victims of violent crime and an amendment to protect hunting and fishing. I'm sure the goal is to get voters to blindly just mark check check check all the way down the list.

Again folks, THIS set of fools is what drove me from the Republican party. PRE-Trump. If MSD wants to know why I went "to the dark side," then go read up on all the shady shit they've been doing to the people of North Carolina. And I say shady as if they're actually trying to hide it. They're not.

[Apollo]

I know I live in a red state, but I've seen no evidence at all of flagging support for Trump. If the election were held today in SC, I'd be shocked if he didn't do better than he did in 2016.

It's the same way here in Alabama.

[Defiant]

Trump's net approval rating has dropped in every state. His approval has dropped in every state with the exception of Alabama and West Virginia (where it's the same number), but more of the change, I think, has to do with people who were undecided before but now disapprove of Trump.

[El Guapo]

As the tweet says, who knows about the impact of this sort of thing these days. Though with (from what I've seen) Nelson with a growing lead of late, even a small hit from this would be problematic for Scott.

[Defiant]

[YellowKing]

In more NC news, remember those six amendments on the ballot this year, most of which are shady?

3 of the 6 had to be reworded due to their language being unconstitutional. Yeah, that's right - half of the amendments on the ballot are "do-overs" after getting their wrists slapped the first time.

[Defiant]

(No, I have not turned into a spam bot)

Spoiler:

It's like a constructive version of rick-rolling

[Holman]

Spoiler:

It's like a constructive version of rick-rolling

I've seen the same thing with "Kim has finally decided to divorce Kanye!!"

[Daehawk]

Im starting to worry about midterms as people are seemingly starting to forget all trump and the GOP's stupidity. Ive seen signs that thing may not be a wave after all. Even Cruz might win. Scary.

[Holman]

Even Cruz might win.

Stay focused. You're talking about Texas.

That a liberal Dem could win a Texas senate seat was always a long shot, but the fact that he has a red-meat right-winger like Cruz fighting for his political life means *everything* for local down-ballot races. This is the future.

[Daehawk]

If I had some Photoshop skills Id take that pic from Starship Troopers where all the soldiers have the brainbug pulled out. Id label the soldiers Dems and put Trump's wig on the brainbug and label it Trump. Then Id have NPH doing his thing yelling "It's afraid!!!!!"

[Max Peck]

If you're expecting Beto O'Rourke to beat Ted Cruz, expect to be disappointed. The story is that O'Rourke made it a race when it should be a GOP cakewalk, not that he has much of a chance to win.

Edit: What Holman said...

[Kraken]

Spoiler:

It's like a constructive version of rick-rolling

I've seen the same thing with "Kim has finally decided to divorce Kanye!!"

Huh. North Korea has same-sex marriage? You learn something new every day.

[El Guapo]

Beto's got a shot, but not a great one - probably like 20% - 25%. Wouldn't be crazy for him to win, but it's unlikely. Kind of mirrors the Democrats chances in the Senate more generally - they've got a shot (and it's a little crazy that they do, given the Senate map), but the main action is in the House.

[coopasonic]

I'm going to vote for Beto as many times as it takes... I mean assuming it only takes one. If it takes more than that... well, I'm too... scared for prison.

[Defiant]

BTW, the 538 model for the Governors races is up

[El Guapo]

BTW, the 538 model for the Governors races is up

I'm not totally sure which states have R incumbents not running for re-election, but looks to be roughly at least half a dozen or so Democratic governorship pickups at this point.

[Defiant]

What I would like to know (and this would also require knowing how the state legislatures will turn out) is how this will affect the effort to prevent and undo gerrymandering after the next census. One good thing is that Democrats will likely have governorships in almost half the states, and overall will have them in larger states (that therefore have more districts) than Republicans.

[El Guapo]

What I would like to know (and this would also require knowing how the state legislatures will turn out) is how this will affect the effort to prevent and undo gerrymandering after the next census. One good thing is that Democrats will likely have governorships in almost half the states, and overall will have them in larger states (that therefore have more districts) than Republicans.

With the exception of the 1 or 2 states that have commissions running the redistricting (thinking of Arizona here), getting the governorship would mean that the Democrats in that state could at least veto a map that they didn't like (assuming for the moment that Republicans don't have a veto-proof majority in the relevant state). Obviously if the Democrats also control the legislature (probably not many states, but probably a few) then they would be in total control of the redistricting.

[Defiant]

Found details:

https://ballotpedia.org/State-by-state_ ... procedures

Six states have independent commissions, seven states only have one district, and the other 37 have the legislatures do it. In 35 of those 37 the Governor can veto (NC and CT don't allow vetoing)

[Paingod]

BTW, the 538 model for the Governors races is up

I'm not totally sure which states have R incumbents not running for re-election, but looks to be roughly at least half a dozen or so Democratic governorship pickups at this point.

That's cool. I didn't know until now that Maine's Mills v Moody fight wasn't even close. I see Moody signs everywhere, and few Mills. I live in a very rural area. LePage - a royal asshole and small Trump in his own ways - is on his way out, and I've heard that Moody is his Mini-Me. Pass on that.

[Defiant]

In the Gubernatorial race in Alaska, the independent incumbent is suspending his campaign and endorsing the Democrat.

[Holman]

Rick Scott, Envy of the World!!



This is the second or third time that Trump has declared a GOP candidate to be the best in the world while warning that the Dem will "destroy the state."

"Next Venezuela" is a nice touch. I look forward to seeing state governments nationalize their industries and begin imprisoning opponents.

[Carpet_pissr]

Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.

No offense to South Carolina, but I don't want none of that.

Likewise.

[Defiant]

In order to vote, these people have to get the hell out of dodge.

Access to the ballot box in November will be more difficult for some people in Dodge City, where Hispanics now make up 60 percent of its population and have remade an iconic Wild West town that once was the destination of cowboys and buffalo hunters who frequented the Long Branch Saloon.

At a time when many rural towns are slowly dying, the arrival of two massive meatpacking plants boosted Dodge City’s economy and transformed its demographics as immigrants from Mexico and other countries flooded in to fill those jobs.

But the city located 160 miles (257 kilometers) west of Wichita has only one polling site for its 27,000 residents. Since 2002, the lone site was at the civic center just blocks from the local country club — in the wealthy, white part of town. For this November’s election, local officials have moved it outside the city limits to a facility more than a mile from the nearest bus stop, citing road construction that blocked the previous site.

[GreenGoo]

I would so love to see busloads of voters pile out early at the voting station, creating a backlog a mile long. If that prevents wealthy people from voting, they would only have themselves to blame.

The look of wealthy white males standing impatiently in line behind thousands of not wealthy white males would be an epic photo-op.