Too Late To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Fitzy
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Fitzy »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:13 am

I believe that it has majority support in a lot of states *now*. But it hasn't really entered the public consciousness all that much, and more importantly hasn't been the subject of sustained attack yet. Once it gets into the partisan woodshed, the support is going to drop precipitously (mainly because support from GOP aligned voters is likely to drop to minimal levels).

I am sure that it makes sense for some Democrats (maybe even most) to run on Medicare for all in 2018. But the closer it comes to a real proposal that could be passed, the lower its support is going to get.
That was pretty much what I thought. Also, the longer it takes to implement the more support will diminish. The more complex it is, the more misinformation will work and I can't imagine it being a simple solution.
Fireball wrote: Tue Jul 24, 2018 12:36 pm
The main obstacle to a Medicare for All program is that people with employer-provided coverage generally really, really like it. A better solution that moving everyone to Medicare might be what the Center for American Progress has proposed: moving everyone *without employer coverage* to Medicare.
Other than the bad pun, that seems like a program I'd support, at first glance anyway. I think Americans like options, at least I do :D . Give people options beyond the government and support will come around. Eventually. I liked the ACA because it tried to use market forces as a mechanism. Not so much because I believe in the mystical, all-powerful market, but because it should have garnered support across the board. With that in place it could have been tweaked and modified as needed, cost reduction measures implemented and it could have been something good for the country. But with Republicans being nimrods on it, that never happened. Now people are starting to support it more and just in time to see it diminished. :(

Offering Medicare to more people, even as an option to buy for businesses and people otherwise able to afford their own would seem to work in a similar manner. The government doesn't have to control everything, but just enough to control costs and ensure everyone has the healthcare they need. If nothing else, if the Democrats brought it up as legislation, maybe the Republican position would default back to the ACA (Republicans: Medicare for all is socialism, we have a perfectly good system in the ACA!)and give it needed fixes until a more universal solution would be supported. I do think the country will get there, I just happen to think a significant number of us are too stubborn to jump straight to it. :D
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by msteelers »

So that's where Harry Enten ended up. I was wondering why he hasn't been on the 538 podcast.
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LordMortis
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis »

Not too early at all.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 889581002/
Absentee voters have until 2 p.m. Saturday to apply to receive an absentee ballot by mail and 4 p.m. Monday to request an absentee ballot in person. Absentee ballots requested in person Monday must be filled out in the clerk’s office.

The Secretary of State office must receive all absentee ballots by 8 p.m. on Tuesday election day.

“At this point, we encourage people who haven’t already obtained their ballot to go in person to the clerk’s office and vote the ballot there to ensure it doesn’t arrive too late to be counted,” said Secretary of State spokesman Fred Woodhams
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Don't buy this theory, but it is entertaining:

‘The president doesn’t give a damn’: MSNBC panel says Trump wants GOP to lose in 2018 so he can win in 2020
“There is no rational explanation — even from an irrational president — for him to demand a shutdown of the federal government, in a midterm election in less than 100 days, unless he wants to help elect Democrats,” he said.
Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele agreed with Israel’s analysis and said that Trump was essentially throwing his own party under the bus to make life easier for his reelection campaign in two years.

“The president doesn’t really give a damn about this legislative process,” he said. “The better foil for him, coming out of 2018, is to spend the next 18 months haranguing against Nancy Pelosi.”
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman »

Yeah, it seems unlikely that Trump wants to give Democrats the power to call hearings and subpoena testimony.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis »

Defiant wrote: Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:04 am
“The better foil for him, coming out of 2018, is to spend the next 18 months haranguing against Nancy Pelosi.”
I can't believe he'd intentionally risk losing any part of the process that could see him removed from any portion of his wealth or power base. Even so this is absolutely true. If there is not enough congressional change to hold him down, his absolute best bet for an honest re-election is to square off against Pelosi, like he did against Clinton. Pelosi is despised by those that elected Trump and is exactly the dsitraction he needs to keep making his electorate keep looking the other way.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Kraken »

Tyrants thrive on enemies. So much better if he doesn't have to gin them up.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:03 am Tyrants thrive on enemies. So much better if he doesn't have to gin them up.
They don't need actual power, though. They just need to be lurking in the shadows, threatening to destroy the tyrant's hard work if he ever looses his grip on power even slightly.

He doesn't want them to have actual power, though. The shit that will turn up when and if Democrats get subpoena power will be a 'yuge problem for him.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Isgrimnur »

CNBC
Rep. Diane Black lost the hotly contested Tennessee GOP gubernatorial primary this Thursday, making her the fifth House Republican this election cycle to lose a primary for statewide office.
...
Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita both failed to clinch the Republican nomination in Indiana's Senate race. West Virginia Rep. Evan Jenkins lost to state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in his bid to face Democratic incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin this November. Republican Rep. Raul Labrador lost his gubernatorial primary in Idaho.

Republican Reps. Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Robert Pittenger of North Carolina, meanwhile, both lost their primary reelection bids.

Black, who had a shot at becoming Tennessee's first female governor, had forfeited the powerful Budget Committee chair position in the House in her bid for governorship.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Kraken »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:11 am
Kraken wrote: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:03 am Tyrants thrive on enemies. So much better if he doesn't have to gin them up.
They don't need actual power, though. They just need to be lurking in the shadows, threatening to destroy the tyrant's hard work if he ever looses his grip on power even slightly.

He doesn't want them to have actual power, though. The shit that will turn up when and if Democrats get subpoena power will be a 'yuge problem for him.
Only if his minions lose the Senate. Starting impeachment in the House only makes his base more rabid, and he only needs his base as long as it stays rabid.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Morally, evidence of serious crime would make impeachment the right thing to do even if GOP senate power made it a dead end.

Politically, it would stoke the Deplorable base, but it would also peel away Independents.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Man, it would be great if the NC GOP loses its supermajority this fall.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Well I fully intend to do my part to make that happen. The shadiness of politics used to at least be hidden under the covers. Now it's just laid bare. "We're corrupt, and we're going to do everything we can to screw the other party and remain in power. And we don't give a damn how we hurt the public to do it."

The problem is we've reached the point where the public is just as complicit in rabid partisanship as the politicians. There's no fallout from being evil if your voters fully support that evil.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis »

YellowKing wrote: Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:48 am The problem is we've reached the point where ... There's no fallout from being evil....
Ding!
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach de-facto led President Donald Trump's voter fraud commission. He's a provocative, self-styled champion of election integrity — dogged by allegations of links to white nationalists and opposed by civil rights groups who see him as pursuing thinly veiled voter suppression.

The day before the primary, President Trump tweeted an endorsement for Kobach, "he will be a GREAT Governor and has my full & total Endorsement! Strong on Crime, Border & Military."
Trump Endorses Kobach For Kansas Governor Over Republican Incumbent
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Unsurprising, since voter suppression is critical to making the GOP's grip on power permanent.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis »

Don't let Shri win the primary tomorrow over a split between El-Sayed and Whitmer
Don't let Shri win the primary tomorrow over a split between El-Sayed and Whitmer
Don't let Shri win the primary tomorrow over a split between El-Sayed and Whitmer
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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LordMortis wrote: Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:23 pm Don't let Shri win the primary tomorrow over a split between El-Sayed and Whitmer
Don't let Shri win the primary tomorrow over a split between El-Sayed and Whitmer
Don't let Shri win the primary tomorrow over a split between El-Sayed and Whitmer
Not gonna happen.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis »

Z-Corn wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:38 am Not gonna happen.
Let Z-Corn be right
Let Z-Corn be right
Let Z-Corn be right


I'm hating this primary. I don't think El-Sayed can win the general in this state. Shri is basically a small time Trump pretending to be a democrat. Whitmer may as well be micro for Clinton. And then you have the Republicans who only qualify as worse than Shri because he's on the Democratic ticket, though I think for a second, Shri will keep the state GOP in check any better than Snyder did (who actually did keep the party from running the state in to the ground even if he was on the wrong side far far far too many times). Given the 2016 election, this primary is actually causing me a lot of anxiety. I don't see a win coming out of this. How does it come down to these things? Avoiding the bad bad bad outcomes is exactly why I started getting vested in primaries and now, here we are.

Was having a crisis of conscience and thought maybe my best bet was to look for the least offensive republicans running for senate and governor (there are no GOP contests for the rest of the offices) and... Nope. Not a one.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant »

A bunch of tweets:













(He later updated it to only 3 districts that the Democrats aren't fielding a candidate)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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I think this evening is OH-12 special election evening. Who else is excited??
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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El Guapo wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:57 am I think this evening is OH-12 special election evening. Who else is excited??
Dave Wasserman seems to be hyped.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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El Guapo wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:57 am I think this evening is OH-12 special election evening. Who else is excited??
Nothing more exciting than a special election for a seat that will last a few months and will get a rerun in three months (other than the race for a seat that will last a few months before the district gets redistricted before a rerun happens that happened in one of the last special elections)

Image

Spoiler:
OK, I am excited, cause elections always excite me, but still, having that seat in congress probably won't mean a thing for the next few months....
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman »

I think the excitement is in measuring the blue shift of the vote. Normally it would be so safely red that no one outside would notice the election.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:24 am
El Guapo wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:57 am I think this evening is OH-12 special election evening. Who else is excited??
Nothing more exciting than a special election for a seat that will last a few months and will get a rerun in three months (other than the race for a seat that will last a few months before the district gets redistricted before a rerun happens that happened in one of the last special elections)

Image

Spoiler:
OK, I am excited, cause elections always excite me, but still, having that seat in congress probably won't mean a thing for the next few months....
Yeah, it's not super important. The main things are that winning now probably boosts the chances of holding the seat in the fall, and a win might help demoralize / panic Republicans.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Holman wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:33 pm I think the excitement is in measuring the blue shift of the vote. Normally it would be so safely red that no one outside would notice the election.
According to Silver, at this point in the cycle, other measurements are more useful. It also won't have as much effect as earlier special elections, as it won't result in more R retirements, or motivate strong Democratic candidates to run.

But, by all means, measure the blue shift. I'll no doubt be doing the same thing, tonight. ;)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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LordMortis wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:56 am
Z-Corn wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:38 am Not gonna happen.
Let Z-Corn be right
Let Z-Corn be right
Let Z-Corn be right
I think Shri is too inexperienced and foreign for Michigan voters, even Dems. Plus those allegations of shenanigans with the radio station just came out.
El-Sayed is too Muslim, even for Dems.
It'll be Whitmer.
I'd be happy if El-Sayed got it but I won't be mad if Whitmer gets it.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman »

OH-12 is neck-and-neck. With 89% reporting, the Republican leads by about 1,000 votes out of 178,000.

This was supposed to be an utterly safe GOP district. The story of the night is that Dem turnout is significantly up and Republican turnout is significantly down.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Holman wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:54 pm OH-12 is neck-and-neck. With 89% reporting, the Republican leads by about 1,000 votes out of 178,000.

This was supposed to be an utterly safe GOP district. The story of the night is that Dem turnout is significantly up and Republican turnout is significantly down.
We may not know for sure for a few days, but it looks like the Republican is squeaking it out. Avoids the bad headlines of a loss, but another bad omen for the GOP.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman »

It looks like the Republican has won (not counting all the provisionals and etc) by less than 1%.


Trump wrote:When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good. After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in Nov.
I love how he uses early voting to imply that this absolutely solid-red district was an uphill climb for the GOP until he swept in and saved the day.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Z-Corn wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:31 pm I think Shri is too inexperienced and foreign for Michigan voters, even Dems. Plus those allegations of shenanigans with the radio station just came out.
El-Sayed is too Muslim, even for Dems.
It'll be Whitmer.
I'd be happy if El-Sayed got it but I won't be mad if Whitmer gets it.
And now the next step is for Shutte to lose and then hold my nose until the next cycle. Sad that my next assumed congress person only polled 32% of the Democractic vote in a wide open field. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. The first Muslim congresswoman... That's going to send sparks into Congress, at least...
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:10 am
Z-Corn wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:31 pm I think Shri is too inexperienced and foreign for Michigan voters, even Dems. Plus those allegations of shenanigans with the radio station just came out.
El-Sayed is too Muslim, even for Dems.
It'll be Whitmer.
I'd be happy if El-Sayed got it but I won't be mad if Whitmer gets it.
And now the next step is for Shutte to lose and then hold my nose until the next cycle. Sad that my next assumed congress person only polled 32% of the Democractic vote in a wide open field. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. The first Muslim congresswoman... That's going to send sparks into Congress, at least...
How many candidates? 32% isn't bad for a huge field.

But regardless, yet another reason to support ranked choice voting.
Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:47 am
LordMortis wrote: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:10 am
Z-Corn wrote: Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:31 pm I think Shri is too inexperienced and foreign for Michigan voters, even Dems. Plus those allegations of shenanigans with the radio station just came out.
El-Sayed is too Muslim, even for Dems.
It'll be Whitmer.
I'd be happy if El-Sayed got it but I won't be mad if Whitmer gets it.
And now the next step is for Shutte to lose and then hold my nose until the next cycle. Sad that my next assumed congress person only polled 32% of the Democractic vote in a wide open field. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. The first Muslim congresswoman... That's going to send sparks into Congress, at least...
How many candidates? 32% isn't bad for a huge field.

But regardless, yet another reason to support ranked choice voting.
33%!

Rashida Tlaib 28,645 33.2%
Brenda Jones 25,183 29.2
Bill Wild 12,132 14.0
Coleman Young II 10,375 12.0
Ian Conyers 5,453 6.3
Shanelle Jackson 4,600 5.3
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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FWIW in OH-12, Nate Silver's saying that there's a decent chance that provisional ballots pull O'Connor (D) within the automatic recount threshold (0.5% or less) of Balderson (R). Though the odds of the recount changing anything are pretty slim. O'Connor has not yet conceded.

Meanwhile in Kansas, Kobach has a slight lead over Colyer in the GOP primary for governor, though all votes have not yet been counted and it seems reasonably likely that Colyer will pull ahead of Kobach before the votes are certified.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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The Green Party: Putting the Special in Special Elections
Green Party candidate Joe Manchik picked up 1,127 votes [...] Manchik ... described himself as a descendent of aliens from the Pleiades star cluster.
In a March interview, Manchik couldn't recall the URL for his campaign website, remembering only when the interviewer prompted him and adding a confusing string of slashes and dashes at the end. Watch the awkward moment below
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