Octopus Overlords

Defiant wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:33 am For anyone who wants to look at what to track tomorrow night, take a look at this, with both a pdf and spreadsheet version of notable things (elections, control of congress/state legislatures, referenda, etc) to track.

I'll add that to the dozen tabs making my eyes bleed as I am too anxious to blink on election night.

I'm going to be doing election protection / poll monitoring tomorrow in NH - specifically in Nashua. I did it in 2016 and was assigned to a "deplorable" area polling station, which was interesting (though Clinton lost by less than we were expecting there, which was good) - not sure what Nashua is like.

Hopefully this turns out better. I still have mild PTSD from when the reports started to come in during our drive back to MA.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:42 am...over the last ~2 years I've seen the masks come off and people around here are f'ing nuts...

It sounds like the plot to a horror movie. Aliens take over the earth, and only once they've installed their own leader do they reveal that they've been silently working among us all along as they unmask and shed their human skins.

I think the real opposition to bringing back the big "D" is that they can't put the masks back on. If they lose power, they've exposed who they are and can't take it back. You'll always know who the snake people are in your office, your neighborhood, and elsewhere. They know who they are isn't good, and they only revealed themselves because they had someone in charge who made them feel safe in being who they are.

I'm interested to see how tomorrow turns out.

Right now Trump is Gollum, happily eating fish in his cave and the Precious is safe. The election is the riddle, and the Democrats are Baggins. If they win anything and shift the balance, we're going to see him in full tilt for two years as he screams and rends himself over the loss of the Precious.

This cheery closing argument is a hint of our dystopian future if he gets his way.

Edit: I see Holman got there first in the voter fraud thread, but really it's such a despicable tweet it deserves to be cross-posted.

Paingod wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:22 pm I think the real opposition to bringing back the big "D" is that they can't put the masks back on. If they lose power, they've exposed who they are and can't take it back. You'll always know who the snake people are in your office, your neighborhood, and elsewhere. They know who they are isn't good, and they only revealed themselves because they had someone in charge who made them feel safe in being who they are.

It would almost be worth it if that were true.

Unfortunately there is no possible way that this is true. Not only do they not think they are bad people despite having zero empathy, they think left leaning people are bad people. Because their government and religious leaders tell them it's true, I guess?

Paingod wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:22 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:42 am...over the last ~2 years I've seen the masks come off and people around here are f'ing nuts...

It sounds like the plot to a horror movie. Aliens take over the earth, and only once they've installed their own leader do they reveal that they've been silently working among us all along as they unmask and shed their human skins.

I think the real opposition to bringing back the big "D" is that they can't put the masks back on. If they lose power, they've exposed who they are and can't take it back. You'll always know who the snake people are in your office, your neighborhood, and elsewhere. They know who they are isn't good, and they only revealed themselves because they had someone in charge who made them feel safe in being who they are.

Human history is replete with stories about those that convinced themselves that they weren't the bad guys once the tide turned.

Captain Caveman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:25 pm This cheery closing argument is a hint of our dystopian future if he gets his way.

You know what would help? Full military gear SWAT teams aiming rifles at the polling booths. Maybe with a trickle of sweat crawling down their faces, so you know they are under a lot of pressure and are serious.

Bam, fair and democratic election. Problem solved.

GreenGoo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:27 pm

Paingod wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:22 pm I think the real opposition to bringing back the big "D" is that they can't put the masks back on. If they lose power, they've exposed who they are and can't take it back. You'll always know who the snake people are in your office, your neighborhood, and elsewhere. They know who they are isn't good, and they only revealed themselves because they had someone in charge who made them feel safe in being who they are.

It would almost be worth it if that were true.

Unfortunately there is no possible way that this is true. Not only do they not think they are bad people despite having zero empathy, they think left leaning people are bad people. Because their government and religious leaders tell them it's true, I guess?

I suppose it was wishful thinking, and I agree completely.

Across the world over you can see people doing terrible things to each other and believing they're justified because their leadership/priests/gods tell them it's the right thing. They believe in their own righteousness so completely that anything else must be wrong. I don't think they can easily come back from that without breaking something inside themselves.

When I visited Austria in the early 90s we got to meet a number of men who had served during WWII for Nazi Germany every single one claimed ignorance of what had really been going on. All of them claimed they had been in belief that they were defending their nation in a noble cause. All of them also admitted they had been wrong and to the truth of what had been happening but felt their ignorance absolved them of guilt. I expect the same will happen here if we take that dark path.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:57 am I'm going to be doing election protection / poll monitoring tomorrow in NH - specifically in Nashua. I did it in 2016 and was assigned to a "deplorable" area polling station, which was interesting (though Clinton lost by less than we were expecting there, which was good) - not sure what Nashua is like.

Hopefully this turns out better. I still have mild PTSD from when the reports started to come in during our drive back to MA.

I regret missing the Soros bus to NH this year. We Massholes are left out of the blue wave because we don't have any Republicans to throw out of congress. Voting in NH is more satisfying.

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:01 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:57 am I'm going to be doing election protection / poll monitoring tomorrow in NH - specifically in Nashua. I did it in 2016 and was assigned to a "deplorable" area polling station, which was interesting (though Clinton lost by less than we were expecting there, which was good) - not sure what Nashua is like.

Hopefully this turns out better. I still have mild PTSD from when the reports started to come in during our drive back to MA.

I regret missing the Soros bus to NH this year. We Massholes are left out of the blue wave because we don't have any Republicans to throw out of congress. Voting in NH is more satisfying.

I think you can still get a partial Soros check for helping to coordinate the routing of illegal immigrant voters to NH.

This LOL moment brought to you by the GOP



They burned that bridge to the ground over the last two years, putting out the fire with gasoline. I am resentful for it more than they can possibly begin to understand much less admit. I find every single ad the GOP throw at me right now to be intolerable (even though it's the fucking democrats texting me 20+ times a day). Like I'm wearing Roddy Piper glasses.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:26 pm even though it's the fucking democrats texting me 20+ times a day

Dear Well Intentioned Democrats,

I understand that I live in a red state with a close election and you feel very strongly about doing your part to defeat Drumpf, but my voice mail only holds so many calls, and the scores of you that have texted and left messages over the last week are wasting your time with me as I have been prepared to vote in this election seemingly all my life.

Thanks.

Sabato's Crystal Ball:

Our ratings changes leave 229 seats at least leaning to the Democrats and 206 at least leaning to the Republicans, so we are expecting the Democrats to pick up more than 30 seats (our precise ratings now show Democrats netting 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need). We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats, and we don’t think readers should be stunned if things go haywire for Democrats tomorrow night. That said, it may be just as likely — or even more likely — that we’re understating the Democrats in the House. Many of our sources on both sides seemed to think the Democratic tally would be more like +35 to 40 (or potentially even higher) when we checked in with them over the weekend.

Because of the bad map Democrats faced this year, the GOP picking up seats always seemed like a possibility, even a strong possibility. Our final ratings reaffirm this potential; we have 52 Senate seats at least leaning to the Republicans, and 48 at least leaning to the Democrats. If that happened, the GOP would net a seat.

The reasonable range of outcomes in the Senate still seems fairly wide, with a bigger GOP gain possible, or no gain at all or even a Democratic gain. The Democrats still essentially have no path to the majority without winning one of these three states: North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas, and the Republicans retain what appear to be edges in all three.

Right now, the Republicans hold 33 governorships, the Democrats just 16, and an independent, Bill Walker holds Alaska. Our ratings suggest the Democrats could net 10 governorships, while the GOP could lose nine (we favor Republicans to pick up Alaska, which throws off the net change statistic a little bit). That does not include Georgia, where we are maintaining a unique “Toss-up/Leans Runoff” rating in anticipation of a possible runoff on Dec. 4 if neither major party candidate gets a majority.

Think I'm going to go offline (no news or social media) from tonight to wednesday morning. Two years ago, I made the mistake of checking the news tuesday evening, and as a result, didn't get a single minute of sleep. I'm sure our great leader will text me if he declares martial law or whatever.

Not sure if my plan will work (I might still wind up way too wired up to sleep). But it's worth a shot.

You are stronger than me. I predict that I'll consume way too much news and analysis, leading to inevitable over-interpretation of exit polls and likely existential despair.

Captain Caveman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:04 pm You are stronger than me. I predict that I'll consume way too much news and analysis, leading to inevitable over-interpretation of exit polls and likely existential despair.

I have the existential despair already. At this point, I just need to live long enough to impart to my children how to best kill people for canned beans.

NickAragua wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:52 pm Think I'm going to go offline (no news or social media) from tonight to wednesday morning. Two years ago, I made the mistake of checking the news tuesday evening, and as a result, didn't get a single minute of sleep. I'm sure our great leader will text me if he declares martial law or whatever.

Not sure if my plan will work (I might still wind up way too wired up to sleep). But it's worth a shot.

Same plan here. Mindless video games and Netflix for me.

Read this article with interviews of voters in Idaho: political divide

There appear to be rationale, normal people that look at the president and see a great leader who tells it like it is, does what he says he will do, and has great policies as evidenced by the current economic prosperity. The president is a substance over style guy, so it's easy to ignore his style when his substance is so awesome. He's just counter-punching anyway. It's not his fault, it's everyone else's who attack him.

Glad I could contribute to everyone's morale.

Good luck, America.

Defiant wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:11 pm

That hit a little too close to home.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:12 pm

NickAragua wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:52 pm Think I'm going to go offline (no news or social media) from tonight to wednesday morning. Two years ago, I made the mistake of checking the news tuesday evening, and as a result, didn't get a single minute of sleep. I'm sure our great leader will text me if he declares martial law or whatever.

Not sure if my plan will work (I might still wind up way too wired up to sleep). But it's worth a shot.

Same plan here. Mindless video games and Netflix for me.

I'll probably be watching House of Cards... close enough.

I'm going to try to avoid it for a couple hours after the polls close, because it's useless and stressful to pore over preliminary returns and whatnot. I don't think I can avoid checking later than 10 pm or 11 pm, though, when I expect / hope that we should have a pretty good sense of control of the House. The NY Times app on my phone is going to buzz me at a few points as well, I imagine.

Going to kind of amazing if the Senate winds up at 50-50 with a MS run-off pending, though.

I don't feel proud of it, but for some reason I like making a day of voting and watching all the coverage.

Vote in the morning and then spend the afternoon gaming and watching the news. In general I watch the news much less than I did before the rise of Drumpf, but I still feel the draw to keep the news on on election days.

We have our regularly scheduled game night tomorrow, and I'm kind of glad for the diversion. The only cringey thing is one of the guys is a Trump die-hard, so I'm hoping he's not constantly checking his phone and making smarmy comments all evening.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:07 pm We have our regularly scheduled game night tomorrow, and I'm kind of glad for the diversion. The only cringey thing is one of the guys is a Trump die-hard, so I'm hoping he's not constantly checking his phone and making smarmy comments all evening.

Declare it a politics-free zone, with game repercussions if he doesn't comply.

Well, this is promising, FWIW.



Also, for Beto fans here, while Beto's probably going to lose per polls, the good news (such as it is) is that there hasn't been a lot of polling on the race *lately*, so if a lot of people are breaking late in Beto's direction (Breaking Beto, if you will), then the polling average may be outdated.



He's probably still going to lose, but there's hope.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:26 pm This LOL moment brought to you by the GOP



They burned that bridge to the ground over the last two years, putting out the fire with gasoline. I am resentful for it more than they can possibly begin to understand much less admit. I find every single ad the GOP throw at me right now to be intolerable (even though it's the fucking democrats texting me 20+ times a day). Like I'm wearing Roddy Piper glasses.

Stupid Republicans somehow got my number today and sent me several texts telling me to vote "No on 2". I'd send back a text telling them to kiss my dirty ass**** right after I finish a wet dump but I'm sure its automated and I'd just be wasting my time.

Remus West wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:48 pm Stupid Republicans somehow got my number today and sent me several texts telling me to vote "No on 2". I'd send back a text telling them to kiss my dirty ass**** right after I finish a wet dump but I'm sure its automated and I'd just be wasting my time.

The DeVos "You don't need to read Prop 2, just vote 'no' and save the tax payers money, it'll fix our roads and schools and medical" is some of the most offensive by means of being disingenuous bullshit I've heard. Like I said, I feel like I'm wearing Roddy Piper glasses right now. My blood boil with every GOP message because every single one is a lie. And this the top of the list lie. Ignore the party, vote the person, when the party is made of people goose step the party line to expand the power of the party uber alles.

...And walking away cause I need to...

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:28 pmHe's probably still going to lose, but there's hope.

Beto's real ambition is 2020 anyway most likely. He showed he could speak persuasively, show vision, and fund-raise effectively while stealing entire chapters from Bernie's playbook. He has an outside chance of winning in Texas. That is impressive considering the strong voter suppression mechanisms in place there in support of Republicans. Many see a shining star there. He just needs to build a nation-wise awareness which is no small feat obviously.

I’ll be covering local elections on the radio, same place I was in 2016. I don’t think I’ll forget the sickening feeling when I realized on-air that Clinton was going to lose FL. The early returns in the Democratic stronghold of St Lucie County came back with a very narrow Clinton lead. I knew she was in trouble. Then the first wave of Election Day results poured in, and Trump actually took a lead. That’s when I knew she lost the state. I had a mini-internal meltdown, but couldn’t express any of it. That was a hard night.

I’m hoping for a much better result this year, but fearing the worst.

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:59 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:28 pmHe's probably still going to lose, but there's hope.

Beto's real ambition is 2020 anyway most likely. He showed he could speak persuasively, show vision, and fund-raise effectively while stealing entire chapters from Bernie's playbook. He has an outside chance of winning in Texas. That is impressive considering the strong voter suppression mechanisms in place there in support of Republicans. Many see a shining star there. He just needs to build a nation-wise awareness which is no small feat obviously.

eh, I doubt it. If he's a losing candidate going into 2020, he has no real shot at beating all of Biden / Sanders / Warren / Booker / Harris / etc. He might have a shot at the VP slot, but that's about it.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:14 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:59 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:28 pmHe's probably still going to lose, but there's hope.

Beto's real ambition is 2020 anyway most likely. He showed he could speak persuasively, show vision, and fund-raise effectively while stealing entire chapters from Bernie's playbook. He has an outside chance of winning in Texas. That is impressive considering the strong voter suppression mechanisms in place there in support of Republicans. Many see a shining star there. He just needs to build a nation-wise awareness which is no small feat obviously.

eh, I doubt it. If he's a losing candidate going into 2020, he has no real shot at beating all of Biden / Sanders / Warren / Booker / Harris / etc. He might have a shot at the VP slot, but that's about it.

Losing candidate? He will have barely lost in Texas. Anyway, I was not handicapping his chances. I said that was likely his true ambition. If he wins in Texas he'll definitely be running. If a narrow loss, I think we will see him feeling things out. Still, he fund-raised $70 Million dollars from small donors. We shall see.

Edit: Might as well handicap a little - for fun. He beats Booker and Harris I suspect based on fundraising ability. Biden definitely has an edge on him. I think he takes Sanders based on being a partial but realistic replacement. Beto captures the youth and small fundraising enthusiasm. Warren is a darling of some and has a hardcore following but I suspect won't have the legs based on "like-ability". Too early to really say but that is my quick dirty handicapping.

Beto is young. He can bide his time while the current front-runners age out of the field, then be well positioned to emerge in 2028. He will probably have held some high-profile committee assignments by then if the party is grooming him.

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:19 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:14 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:59 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:28 pmHe's probably still going to lose, but there's hope.

Beto's real ambition is 2020 anyway most likely. He showed he could speak persuasively, show vision, and fund-raise effectively while stealing entire chapters from Bernie's playbook. He has an outside chance of winning in Texas. That is impressive considering the strong voter suppression mechanisms in place there in support of Republicans. Many see a shining star there. He just needs to build a nation-wise awareness which is no small feat obviously.

eh, I doubt it. If he's a losing candidate going into 2020, he has no real shot at beating all of Biden / Sanders / Warren / Booker / Harris / etc. He might have a shot at the VP slot, but that's about it.

Losing candidate? He will have barely lost in Texas. Anyway, I was not handicapping his chances. I said that was likely his true ambition. If he wins in Texas he'll definitely be running. If a narrow loss, I think we will see him feeling things out. Still, he fund-raised $70 Million dollars from small donors. We shall see.

I don't think he'll run either way. If he loses, he has no shot. If he wins, he's still a super long shot, plus Democrats will be loathe to give up having a Senate seat in Texas over the next six years. I think he'll wait for 2024 or 2028.

Holman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:23 pm Beto is young. He can bide his time while the current front-runners age out of the field, then be well positioned to emerge in 2028. He will probably have held some high-profile committee assignments by then if the party is grooming him.

I agree but also Biden will be 77. 77! I don't know how that plays.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:14 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:59 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:28 pmHe's probably still going to lose, but there's hope.

Beto's real ambition is 2020 anyway most likely. He showed he could speak persuasively, show vision, and fund-raise effectively while stealing entire chapters from Bernie's playbook. He has an outside chance of winning in Texas. That is impressive considering the strong voter suppression mechanisms in place there in support of Republicans. Many see a shining star there. He just needs to build a nation-wise awareness which is no small feat obviously.

eh, I doubt it. If he's a losing candidate going into 2020, he has no real shot at beating all of Biden / Sanders / Warren / Booker / Harris / etc. He might have a shot at the VP slot, but that's about it.

While I like the guy, it's ludicrous to be talking about 2020. Why not nominate Santa, I like him too.

GreenGoo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:12 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:14 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:59 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:28 pmHe's probably still going to lose, but there's hope.

Beto's real ambition is 2020 anyway most likely. He showed he could speak persuasively, show vision, and fund-raise effectively while stealing entire chapters from Bernie's playbook. He has an outside chance of winning in Texas. That is impressive considering the strong voter suppression mechanisms in place there in support of Republicans. Many see a shining star there. He just needs to build a nation-wise awareness which is no small feat obviously.

eh, I doubt it. If he's a losing candidate going into 2020, he has no real shot at beating all of Biden / Sanders / Warren / Booker / Harris / etc. He might have a shot at the VP slot, but that's about it.

While I like the guy, but it's ludicrous to be talking about 2020. Why not nominate Santa, I like him too.

Santa is not a natural-born citizen of the United States.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:14 pm Santa is not a natural-born citizen of the United States.

Yes he is, and I'll fight anyone who says otherwise.

GreenGoo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:14 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:14 pm Santa is not a natural-born citizen of the United States.

Yes he is, and I'll fight anyone who says otherwise.

Ok, let's meet behind the benches in the school yard after school tomorrow.