Russia influences election

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Maina03
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Maina03 »

Ok thank you for the spam
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LordMortis
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by LordMortis »

LOL
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Holman »

What happens if we teach the bots about bots?
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Smoove_B »

I was listening to my NYC-based communist radio this morning and heard a downright chilling interview with Malcolm Nance, author of The Plot to Destroy Democracy.
Nance exposes how Russia has supported the campaigns of right-wing extremists throughout both the U.S. and Europe to leverage an axis of autocracy, and how Putin's agencies have worked since 2010 to bring fringe candidate Donald Trump into elections.

Revelatory, insightful, and shocking, The Plot To Destroy Democracy puts a professional spy lens on Putin's plot and unravels it play-by-play. In the end, he provides a better understanding of why Putin's efforts are a serious threat to our national security and global alliances--in much more than one election--and a blistering indictment of Putin's puppet, President Donald J. Trump.
Not a puppet, etc... but we're boned. Basically what we're seeing now has been decades in the making and it's finally come to fruition after the various seeds planted began growing shortly after election of Obama. Nance's predictions were dire after the upcoming summit between Putin and Trump. I dind't leave his interview feeling hopeful for the future. His perspective was rather interesting (as a former member of the intelligence community) as he was able to frame things in terms of information and framing and how Putin's influence was spread in new and creative ways.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Smoove_B
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Smoove_B »

Another interview with Nance, courtesy of Salon:
We’re entering a very dangerous period in American history. It is terrifying. I was rereading my book last weekend, and I really had no idea that putting all of this together in one solid package would lead to the conclusion that there is, in fact, a plot. The Russians have a plan and a strategy. They have been executing the strategy for 15 years, by finding Donald Trump and building him up as a character and fostering his betrayal of the United States of America. They clearly set out to destroy American democracy and Donald Trump is the man to do it. We are, as of this November, on the cusp of possibly losing the American constitutional republic forever.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Kraken »

He is more optimistic than I am. He thinks we get one last chance to turn it around in November. I think it's already too late. I hope I'm wrong...he's better informed than I am, so that's hopeful.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Holman »

I feel like we need a concentrated public lesson in how capitalism just doesn't fucking work under autocratic rule.

Maybe what will save us is the 0.2%-1.0% getting their shit together to thwart the 0.1%.
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Re: Russia influences election

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Kraken wrote: Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:09 pm He is more optimistic than I am. He thinks we get one last chance to turn it around in November. I think it's already too late. I hope I'm wrong...he's better informed than I am, so that's hopeful.
No, we get a chance to delay it in November. We get a chance to turn it around two years from November, by electing leadership that are willing and able to weaken their own power by closing the loopholes he's used to bring us to this point.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by LordMortis »

Blackhawk wrote: Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:15 pm by electing leadership that are willing and able to weaken their own power by closing the loopholes he's used to bring us to this point.
Man, now that's a campaign I want to see. I want to know how they pull it off. If they can, I totally want to subscribe to their newsletter. Imagine a democractic candidate for president campaigning on such things while the republican party scream about government over reach and the death of the constitutionally limited republic under this president.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Holman »


NPR wrote:Dozens of Russian fake Twitter accounts posted real local news for months, building readership for future U.S. influence efforts https://n.pr/2zu8WZG
From the linked article:
The information operatives who worked out of the Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg did not stop at posing as American social media users or spreading false information from purported news sources, according to new details.

They also created a number of Twitter accounts that posed as sources for Americans' hometown headlines.

NPR has reviewed information connected with the investigation and found 48 such accounts. They have names such as @ElPasoTopNews, @MilwaukeeVoice, @CamdenCityNews and @Seattle_Post.
Another twist: These accounts apparently never spread misinformation. In fact, they posted real local news, serving as sleeper accounts building trust and readership for some future, unforeseen effort.

"They set them up for a reason. And if at any given moment, they wanted to operationalize this network of what seemed to be local American news handles, they can significantly influence the narrative on a breaking news story," Schafer told NPR. "But now instead of just showing up online and flooding it with news sites, they have these accounts with two years of credible history."
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Toe »

Their strategy is still working well. On a local Nashville news station last night, their call-in poll indicated that 43% of people calling into the poll think that "Putin is a honest person". Jesus.
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Re: Russia influences election

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https://twitter.com/josephfcox/status/1 ... 9110345728

When against the odds the GOP holds the house in November, what's the recourse if evidence of shenanigans emerges?
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Chaz »

2020 elections?

Seriously, if the GOP holds both the House and Senate in the fall, there's a real good chance it's all over. There will be no investigation into anything, and any evidence that does manage to be uncovered will be passed off as sour grapes from the losing party. You can't find what you cover your eyes and go "LALALALALA" about, and if you don't know about it, there's nothing you have to do!
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Captain Caveman
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Captain Caveman »

Chaz wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:44 pm 2020 elections?

Seriously, if the GOP holds both the House and Senate in the fall, there's a real good chance it's all over. There will be no investigation into anything, and any evidence that does manage to be uncovered will be passed off as sour grapes from the losing party. You can't find what you cover your eyes and go "LALALALALA" about, and if you don't know about it, there's nothing you have to do!
Which means there's zero incentive to prevent Russia from assisting them, and if they do win, it doesn't matter if there's smoking gun evidence that their victory was a sham. They won't do anything about it.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by malchior »

Captain Caveman wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:36 pm
https://twitter.com/josephfcox/status/1 ... 9110345728

When against the odds the GOP holds the house in November, what's the recourse if evidence of shenanigans emerges?
First off I don't think you can ever underestimate the gerrymander - it is a big advantage. Second there is little practical recourse. The state election officials are more Republican than not and courts don't generally provide a timely response (absent SCOTUS level interference in State elections :roll: ). I guess the press can complain but let's be honest. They fucking suck. They still haven't figured out how to deal with Trump level disruption of norms after almost 2 years.
Captain Caveman wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:50 pm
Chaz wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:44 pm 2020 elections?

Seriously, if the GOP holds both the House and Senate in the fall, there's a real good chance it's all over. There will be no investigation into anything, and any evidence that does manage to be uncovered will be passed off as sour grapes from the losing party. You can't find what you cover your eyes and go "LALALALALA" about, and if you don't know about it, there's nothing you have to do!
Which means there's zero incentive to prevent Russia from assisting them, and if they do win, it doesn't matter if there's smoking gun evidence that their victory was a sham. They won't do anything about it.
Correct. There is a reason some of us looking further down the board are very skeptical that it isn't over already. And even if the Dems win the House in 2018, there are huge institutional problems that probably can't be solved. It is a good time for pessimism.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Captain Caveman
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Captain Caveman »

Let's imagine the most extreme version of this. The GOP retains the House and Senate, and subsequently incontrovertible evidence emerges that vote totals were altered to ensure this outcome. Would the GOP just deny, dissemble, cry "fake news", and let democracy end?
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by malchior »

Captain Caveman wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:53 pm Let's imagine the most extreme version of this. The GOP retains the House and Senate, and subsequently incontrovertible evidence emerges that vote totals were altered to ensure this outcome. Would the GOP just deny, dissemble, cry "fake news", and let democracy end?
No. Democracy will continue in a Russian sense. We'll go through the motions of elections but they won't matter - not that they matter much anyway. Even without electioneering that is the likely outcome anyway. As soon as the court is locked up expect that the 2020 census will be used to even further entrench the House advantage.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Remus West »

Captain Caveman wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:53 pm Let's imagine the most extreme version of this. The GOP retains the House and Senate, and subsequently incontrovertible evidence emerges that vote totals were altered to ensure this outcome. Would the GOP just deny, dissemble, cry "fake news", and let democracy end?
Given their actions the past two years I suspect a good portion of them are banking on just this.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
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Re: Russia influences election

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Captain Caveman wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:36 pm
https://twitter.com/josephfcox/status/1 ... 9110345728

When against the odds the GOP holds the house in November, what's the recourse if evidence of shenanigans emerges?
It sounds like it's a little unclear how many systems had this installed on them (and of those, how many are still functioning).

So, there would be a couple potential avenues of recourse. The main one would probably be the Secretary of State for the state(s) in which there is evidence of sheninigans - they are generally charged with overseeing their state's elections, and are required to certify the vote. If there were questions about the integrity of the vote, they would have authority to investigate, and in theory to not certify the vote. I imagine state AGs and state governors may also have some relevant election oversight authority as well. In states where some or all of those entities are controlled by Republicans, I don't have a *ton* of confidence that they would be overly interested in looking under the hood in such a situation, but that's going to vary a lot by how partisan the relevant official is, and how compelling the evidence of irregularity is. If I were trying to orchestrate changing votes, I would definitely (as part of the targeting decision) want to do some research into the oversight officials in particular states.

Also, I assume the FEC has some authority here (hobbled though that agency is), and a losing candidate could presumably file a lawsuit.

The big worry is jurisdictions that produce no paper trail / records. Where there's a paper record, it's easy enough, if questions arise about tabulation, to just compare the vote totals with the paper votes. Where there's no record, there's not much more that they can do than just have the questionable machines themselves retabulate. Presumably the machines themselves could be examined, but I assume there's some chance that the tampering / hacking could be hidden. There are 5 states (Georgia, Delaware, Louisiana, New Jersey and South Carolina) that produce no paper records in any of their elections, and 300 counties in eight other states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas) that do the same.

The good news, such as it is, is that it seems like the potential hackable targets are significantly narrowed by a few factors. You'd want to target races where:

(1) There is no easily checkable paper trail;
(2) The relevant elections supervisory authorities are Republicans, and in particular reliably partisan Republicans;
(3) The polling average going into election day is within a normal polling error or two;

There are going to be jurisdictions that satisfy those, but probably not in HUGE numbers. Combined with other GOP advantages (gerrymandering, etc.) it could be decisive, and it worries me a fair amount, but it wouldn't a slam dunk operation.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Kraken »

Hell yeah they will. Conservatives of conscience have already retired or fled the party. Those who threw in with Trump are already complicit.

Mueller's findings are the last wild card, and it's a weak one. Trump can't shut down the investigation in the wake of yesterday's fiasco, but it can only carry any weight in Congress. Public opinion and peaceful demonstrations clearly don't matter.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Fitzy »

While I think it is raining, I don't see the sky falling in yet. I don't think the majority of our country would capitulate the Republic to get their way nor do I think a strong enough minority exists to enforce their will on the majority through outright tyranny.

But it's easier (note, not easy) to prevent the issue from ever becoming that serious. For example, if we would get off our lazy asses and start talking to our neighbors. Not screaming at them, not accusing them of horrific crimes, but actually talking to them. Empathize with them, learn about their needs and desires, and ultimately convince enough that Trump is a big threat that needs neutering and the only way that happens is removing Republicans. Right now, that means voting in Democrats no matter how repugnant the thought. Get a big enough blue wave and Trump's power is limited.

Or, we can yell at them, tell them they are useless people who will never amount to anything, that they are destroying the country by being such horrible people, call them traitors to the country, deplorable, Nazis, whatever the latest thing is. I'm sure that will work too.

That said, should the election be directly manipulated throw illegal vote counting, hacking, or other methods not specified, there are numerous remedies in local, state and federal law.

Assuming those don't work however it always comes down to what we are willing to accept.

John Milton:
The power of kings and magistrates is nothing else, but what is only derivative, transferred and committed to them in trust from the people, to the common good of them all, in whom the power yet remains fundamentally, and cannot be taken from them, without a violation of their natural birthright.


And of course we already have the blueprint if needed.
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
Would we have the will? :confusion-shrug:

Much better to start making friends with conservatives and swing the election I'd say.
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Re: Russia influences election

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I talked to a friend who voted for Trump the other day.

The main issue is the information bubble. The guy basically just watched fox news and other stuff. When I explained to him in detail what was happening on the border regarding kids being put into camps, he admitted that, at the end of the day, the orange turd bears responsibility. We also came to an agreement that the tariff war is stupid and won't help the economy at all. I told him to read more Reuters, Economist and Wall Street Journal, and less Fox News.

Unfortunately, this guy lives in Massachusetts, same as me, so it doesn't really matter whether I convince him to skip voting R next election or not. However, it *is* theoretically possible to convince somebody of a different point of view. You just have to have been close friends with them for 25+ years.
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Re: Russia influences election

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NickAragua wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:12 pm I talked to a friend who voted for Trump the other day.

The main issue is the information bubble. The guy basically just watched fox news and other stuff. When I explained to him in detail what was happening on the border regarding kids being put into camps, he admitted that, at the end of the day, the orange turd bears responsibility. We also came to an agreement that the tariff war is stupid and won't help the economy at all. I told him to read more Reuters, Economist and Wall Street Journal, and less Fox News.

Unfortunately, this guy lives in Massachusetts, same as me, so it doesn't really matter whether I convince him to skip voting R next election or not. However, it *is* theoretically possible to convince somebody of a different point of view. You just have to have been close friends with them for 25+ years.
You may think he's come around, but you'll never know what he does once inside the voting booth.
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Re: Russia influences election

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We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
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Re: Russia influences election

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Fitzy wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:50 pm I don't think the majority of our country would capitulate the Republic to get their way nor do I think a strong enough minority exists to enforce their will on the majority through outright tyranny.
I don't think the majority of our country would know what half of those words actually mean, let alone the implications of them.
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Re: Russia influences election

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Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
:obscene-drinkingcheers:

This is how it's done. Also try to convince them to call their Congress(wo)men.
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Re: Russia influences election

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Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:15 pm You may think he's come around, but you'll never know what he does once inside the voting booth.
I wasn't really counting on it. My point is that talking to someone you've known for a long time is different than talking to some random person where the only thing you know about them is that they voted for a guy whose goal appears to be to take the country apart.
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Re: Russia influences election

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Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
You sure about that? That merely outnumbering them in numbers and/or votes will do the job?
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Holman »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:01 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
You sure about that? That merely outnumbering them in numbers and/or votes will do the job?
This is our last or second-to-last chance at that. That means it's everything.

Ignore the Deplorables. Let them die off. The key is persuading young people and decent Americans to outvote them.

If we let the idea that "the system is rigged and voting is dead" take hold, we've done the voting suppressors' work for them.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:01 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
You sure about that? That merely outnumbering them in numbers and/or votes will do the job?
It doesn't but out numbering them in numbers by pulling in most of the nonvoting public in to their civic duty to vote (hopefully for something better than where we're at and where we're headed to) surely will.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/v ... -elections
Estimates show more than 58 percent of eligible voters went to the polls during the 2016 election, nearly breaking even with the turnout rate set during the last presidential election in 2012, even as the final tallies in states like California continue to be calculated, according to statistics collected by the U.S. Elections Project.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Alefroth »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:01 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
You sure about that? That merely outnumbering them in numbers and/or votes will do the job?
I hope so. If it doesn't, then we've got problems that aren't going to be solved by converting any number of them.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:23 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:01 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
You sure about that? That merely outnumbering them in numbers and/or votes will do the job?
I hope so. If it doesn't, then we've got problems that aren't going to be solved by converting any number of them.
Hope is not a valid strategy. I mean I hope so too but I'm not going to bet it all on hope. We need to use all our options, including voting, but also trying to influence those that blindly suppport this fiasco.

And then we need contingencies in the event that it's already too late.


The two biggest votes in the last few years were manipulated by Russia. They're only getting better.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Fitzy »

Blackhawk wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:27 pm
Fitzy wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:50 pm I don't think the majority of our country would capitulate the Republic to get their way nor do I think a strong enough minority exists to enforce their will on the majority through outright tyranny.
I don't think the majority of our country would know what half of those words actually mean, let alone the implications of them.
:lol:
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Alefroth »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:36 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:23 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:01 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
You sure about that? That merely outnumbering them in numbers and/or votes will do the job?
I hope so. If it doesn't, then we've got problems that aren't going to be solved by converting any number of them.
Hope is not a valid strategy. I mean I hope so too but I'm not going to bet it all on hope. We need to use all our options, including voting, but also trying to influence those that blindly suppport this fiasco.

And then we need contingencies in the event that it's already too late.


The two biggest votes in the last few years were manipulated by Russia. They're only getting better.
If outnumbering them doesn't work, is outnumbering them more going to make a difference?

I agree we need contingencies, but I don't know what those might be.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Fitzy »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:17 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:36 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:23 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:01 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
You sure about that? That merely outnumbering them in numbers and/or votes will do the job?
I hope so. If it doesn't, then we've got problems that aren't going to be solved by converting any number of them.
Hope is not a valid strategy. I mean I hope so too but I'm not going to bet it all on hope. We need to use all our options, including voting, but also trying to influence those that blindly suppport this fiasco.

And then we need contingencies in the event that it's already too late.


The two biggest votes in the last few years were manipulated by Russia. They're only getting better.
If outnumbering them doesn't work, is outnumbering them more going to make a difference?

I agree we need contingencies, but I don't know what those might be.
Have you ever played Tropico? When an election for El Presidente comes up and the final poll shows you are down 48-52, it’s very easy to nudge the voting and win. After all, the Tropicans love you and the voting should reflect that reality.

If you’re down 35-65 cheating becomes impossible.
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Alefroth »

Fitzy wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:37 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:17 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:36 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:23 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:01 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:16 pm We don't need to change deplorables, we just need to get off our lazy asses and vote in enough numbers that they don't matter. We outnumber them, we just need to use that.
You sure about that? That merely outnumbering them in numbers and/or votes will do the job?
I hope so. If it doesn't, then we've got problems that aren't going to be solved by converting any number of them.
Hope is not a valid strategy. I mean I hope so too but I'm not going to bet it all on hope. We need to use all our options, including voting, but also trying to influence those that blindly suppport this fiasco.

And then we need contingencies in the event that it's already too late.


The two biggest votes in the last few years were manipulated by Russia. They're only getting better.
If outnumbering them doesn't work, is outnumbering them more going to make a difference?

I agree we need contingencies, but I don't know what those might be.
Have you ever played Tropico? When an election for El Presidente comes up and the final poll shows you are down 48-52, it’s very easy to nudge the voting and win. After all, the Tropicans love you and the voting should reflect that reality.

If you’re down 35-65 cheating becomes impossible.
If we get lazy democrats to vote, we'll be way beyond 48-52. That's my point, we don't need to convert deplorables to win. In my opinion, swaying democrats that didn't vote is much lower hanging fruit than converting deplorables.
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Holman
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Holman »

AFAIK (and my wife is very active and semi-professional in these efforts at the local and state level), Democratic activists this year are aimed at getting non-voting likely Dems to vote rather than changing the minds of Trump supporters.

Of course this might be different in communities that have seen a lot of switch from Obama to Trump, but Philadelphia and the suburbs are entirely about raising the numbers of Dems.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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LawBeefaroni
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I think that's all putting too much weight on not voting Democrats. The biggest problem is the assumption that they outnumber non-voting "deplorable" and Republicans. Because they'll turn out too.


It's not like "if we do this, we will surely win.". It's like "if we do this, there's a chance that we win." But don't count on it.
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Grifman
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by Grifman »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:40 pm I think that's all putting too much weight on not voting Democrats. The biggest problem is the assumption that they outnumber non-voting "deplorable" and Republicans. Because they'll turn out too.
Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans. If both parties turn out non-voters at the same rate, Democrats will take that every day of the week.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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em2nought
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Re: Russia influences election

Post by em2nought »

I hope we dump those weak NATO allies and form a new alliance with the Ruskies. After all, they were good enough for FDR even after a purge. :roll:

Not a bot I am. :wink:
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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