The Trump foreign policy thread

[Smoove_B]

Trump is a huge fucking moron.

Let's spin the wheel and see what Trump had to say about this back in 2014, shall we?

[Max Peck]

Y'all knew this was going to happen sooner or later.

Trump plans to declare that Iran nuclear deal is not in the national interest

President Trump plans to announce next week that he will “decertify” the international nuclear deal with Iran, saying it is not in the national interest of the United States and kicking the issue to a reluctant Congress, people briefed on an emerging White House strategy for Iran said Thursday.

The move would mark the first step in a process that could eventually result in the resumption of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which would blow up a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear activities that the country reached in 2015 with the U.S. and five other nations.

Trump is expected to deliver a speech, tentatively scheduled for Oct. 12, laying out a larger strategy for confronting the nation it blames for terrorism and instability throughout the Middle East.

Under what is described as a tougher and more comprehensive approach, Trump would open the door to modifying the landmark 2015 agreement he has repeatedly bashed as a raw deal for the United States. But for now he would hold off on recommending that Congress reimpose sanctions on Iran that would abrogate the agreement, said four people familiar with aspects of the president’s thinking.

All cautioned that plans are not fully set and could change. The White House would not confirm plans for a speech or its contents. Trump faces an Oct. 15 deadline to report to Congress on whether Iran is complying with the agreement and whether he judges the deal to be in the U.S. national interest.

"Not in the national interest" sounds like they're not even going to pretend that Iran is not in compliance. What could go wrong?

[Defiant]

United States and Turkey mutually suspend visa services after Turkey arrested a US consulate employee in Istanbul.

[GreenGoo]

A Turkish citizen, just to clarify a little.

[malchior]

Y'all knew this was going to happen sooner or later.

Trump plans to declare that Iran nuclear deal is not in the national interest

President Trump plans to announce next week that he will “decertify” the international nuclear deal with Iran, saying it is not in the national interest of the United States and kicking the issue to a reluctant Congress, people briefed on an emerging White House strategy for Iran said Thursday.

The move would mark the first step in a process that could eventually result in the resumption of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which would blow up a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear activities that the country reached in 2015 with the U.S. and five other nations.

Trump is expected to deliver a speech, tentatively scheduled for Oct. 12, laying out a larger strategy for confronting the nation it blames for terrorism and instability throughout the Middle East.

Under what is described as a tougher and more comprehensive approach, Trump would open the door to modifying the landmark 2015 agreement he has repeatedly bashed as a raw deal for the United States. But for now he would hold off on recommending that Congress reimpose sanctions on Iran that would abrogate the agreement, said four people familiar with aspects of the president’s thinking.

All cautioned that plans are not fully set and could change. The White House would not confirm plans for a speech or its contents. Trump faces an Oct. 15 deadline to report to Congress on whether Iran is complying with the agreement and whether he judges the deal to be in the U.S. national interest.

"Not in the national interest" sounds like they're not even going to pretend that Iran is not in compliance. What could go wrong?

We further alienate our international partners. But trump don't care. It's a bad deal after all! (Not that he'd know a good deal if it fell into his tiny hands)

[Holman]

I'd love to hear a reporter or interviewer ask Trump to explain how the Iran Deal actually works. Or the GOP health care proposals. Or the Paris Agreement. Or anything, really.

Up until now, we've been able to assume that presidents know the basic details of policies they attack or support. With Trump we can have no such confidence at all, but decorum forbids test questions of the sort that now seem crucial.

[Kraken]

Y'all knew this was going to happen sooner or later.

Trump plans to declare that Iran nuclear deal is not in the national interest

President Trump plans to announce next week that he will “decertify” the international nuclear deal with Iran, saying it is not in the national interest of the United States and kicking the issue to a reluctant Congress, people briefed on an emerging White House strategy for Iran said Thursday.

The move would mark the first step in a process that could eventually result in the resumption of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which would blow up a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear activities that the country reached in 2015 with the U.S. and five other nations.

Trump is expected to deliver a speech, tentatively scheduled for Oct. 12, laying out a larger strategy for confronting the nation it blames for terrorism and instability throughout the Middle East.

Under what is described as a tougher and more comprehensive approach, Trump would open the door to modifying the landmark 2015 agreement he has repeatedly bashed as a raw deal for the United States. But for now he would hold off on recommending that Congress reimpose sanctions on Iran that would abrogate the agreement, said four people familiar with aspects of the president’s thinking.

All cautioned that plans are not fully set and could change. The White House would not confirm plans for a speech or its contents. Trump faces an Oct. 15 deadline to report to Congress on whether Iran is complying with the agreement and whether he judges the deal to be in the U.S. national interest.

"Not in the national interest" sounds like they're not even going to pretend that Iran is not in compliance. What could go wrong?

We further alienate our international partners. But trump don't care. It's a bad deal after all! (Not that he'd know a good deal if it fell into his tiny hands)

There are what, 5 or 6 other signatories (including Iran)? They're not going to tear up a successful deal just because the US took its marbles and went home. Same deal with the Paris accords. The rest of the world will go on, and we will become a pariah state that nobody trusts.

[malchior]

There are what, 5 or 6 other signatories (including Iran)? They're not going to tear up a successful deal just because the US took its marbles and went home. Same deal with the Paris accords. The rest of the world will go on, and we will become a pariah state that nobody trusts.

Here is one talk about what might happen. If the US imposes sanctions on them again then it could all fall apart. Or it might not. Whatever the case - it'd be a crisis. And we can be reasonably assured that Trump will then make it worse.

[Max Peck]

Keep in mind that Trump isn't actually tearing up the treaty; he's weaseling out and handing the problem off to Congress.

President Trump is expected to “decertify” the Iran nuclear deal this week. The move might seem like the start of a conflict with Tehran, but it really would just force members of Congress to duke it out over the merits of the deal and decide whether they are willing to rip it apart.

It might be a Goldilocks strategy on Trump’s part: an effort to reap the political benefits of rejecting the agreement without incurring the diplomatic costs of actually unraveling it. But in the end, it could well leave Trump and the GOP Congress further damaged for not delivering on their campaign promises.

Certification is mandated by U.S. law and is not part of the terms of the agreement itself, so all a presidential decertification does is trigger a 60-day period in which Congress could vote to reimpose sanctions on Iran. Since the U.S. committed to sanctions relief as part of the agreement, reimposing them would likely be seen as a breach of the deal. The Iranians would then decide whether or not to stay in.

In other words, instead of pulling out of the deal outright — which Trump has the authority to do at any time — he would punt the issue to Congress. And Congress is very unlikely to reimpose tough sanctions. So Trump would be setting up yet another high-risk venture for Republican leaders, who would struggle to pass the kind of deal-killing legislation the GOP has made a centerpiece of its agenda.

Leadership!

No, wait, "!Leadership" seems more apt. #CodemonkeyJokes

[Max Peck]

Meanwhile, the Saudis are hedging their bet.

King Salman of Saudi Arabia, accompanied by an entourage of 1,500 people, traveled to Moscow last week for meetings with President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials. Discussions about oil prices in advance of an OPEC summit next month topped the agenda, but officials also planned to hold talks about various conflicts in the Middle East. The Saudi monarchy and Russian kleptocracy’s shared love of pomp and opulence were on full display as Moscow feted the kingdom’s delegation and tried to pursue deeper ties. As a retired Russian diplomat told Al-Monitor, “The Saudis have the money, which the Russians need. But the Saudis need the Russians to stop what they see as a strengthening Iran, and Russians just can’t deliver it—at least not to the extent the Saudis would want it.”

The clearest sign of Saudi-Russian cooperation was a preliminary arms deal reached on Thursday, in which Saudi Arabia would purchase anti-tank missiles and Russia’s S-400 air-defense system. (Russia has deployed the surface-to-air missiles to Syria, and Turkey has also expressed interest in also buying the system.) Saudi Arabia is double dipping on defensive weapons systems. Last week, while Salman was still in Moscow, the U.S. State Department gave the greenlight for the sale of $15 billion in THAAD missile interceptors.

Saudi Arabia is clearly exploring its options for diversifying its potential weapons suppliers. It is not walking away from the United States, but Riyadh recognizes that the relationship is fraught. The Qatar crisis hasn’t helped, and the Trump administration’s response has been difficult to decipher. U.S. defense planners said last Friday that U.S. troops would be scaling back their involvement in joint military exercises with the Gulf states over concerns about tensions on the peninsula. "We are opting out of some military exercises out of respect for the concept of inclusiveness and shared regional interests,” a spokesman for Central Command told the Associated Press. The Gulf states made clear for months that they wanted to shore up ties with the United States after disagreements with the Obama administration strained ties, and things looked positive during Trump’s visit to the Gulf in May, but this probably isn’t what they had in mind.

[Pyperkub]

OH, and we are apparently fighting with Saudi Arabia (and Al Qaeda) in Yemen:

In March 2015, the United States introduced its armed forces into the Saudi regime’s war against an uprising of Yemen’s Houthis, a rebel group that rapidly took control of Yemen’s capital, Sana, and eventually most of the country’s cities, by allying with forces loyal to an ousted former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. But the Shiite Houthi rebels are in no way connected to the Sunni extremists of Al Qaeda or the Islamic State, which the United States has been going after across the globe under the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001. American participation in the war in Yemen is not covered by that authorization.

Al Qaeda has been referred to by The Associated Press as a “de facto ally” of Saudi Arabia and its coalition in their shared battle against the Houthis. This raises the question: Whom are we actually supporting in Yemen?

[Grifman]

Keep in mind that Trump isn't actually tearing up the treaty;

This.

Everything I read said that there was a tacit agreement between Obama and the Republicans. He wanted the agreement and they did also, Knowing it was the best option and not liking the alternative to it, most likely war. But the Repubs knew their base would not like it. So they set up the vote so that two thirds of the Senate had to vote against it (which the Repubs knew they could not get) to overturn it. So everyone got what they wanted - Obama got the agreement, while the Repubs got to vote against it to mollify their base.

Now the Repubs in the Senate have to make a real choice since Trump has cowardly punted to them. I would say this is going to be "interesting" except the stakes are so high.

[Max Peck]

Haley says U.S. to stay in Iran nuclear deal 'right now'

The United States for the time being will stay in an international nuclear deal with Iran, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said on Sunday, adding that the Trump administration wanted to weigh a “proportionate” response to Tehran’s actions on the world stage.

“I think right now, you’re going to see us stay in the deal, because what our hope is that we can improve the situation, and that’s the goal,” Haley said referring to what she said were Iran’s ballistic missile tests, international arms sales and state-sponsored terrorism.

Haley, interviewed on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” also said the reason the United States was looking closely at the Iran nuclear deal is because of escalating tensions over North Korea’s nuclear weapons development. “What we’re saying now with Iran is don’t let it become the next North Korea.”

On Friday, Trump refused to formally certify that Iran was meeting the requirements of a 2015 international deal aimed at monitoring and controlling that country’s nuclear program.

The U.S. Congress now has 60 days to decide whether to reimpose economic sanctions on Tehran that were lifted under the deal.

In her “Meet the Press” interview, Haley said, however, “We’re not saying they’re in breach of the agreement.”

Why do I get the feeling that Haley is positioning herself as Tillerson's replacement?

[Defiant]

In case you missed it, Trump took to Twitter over the weekend to slam CNN International, claiming that the news outlet reflected poorly on the United States, and delivered fake news to other nations. “The outside world does not see the truth from them!” Trump added.

Since Trump told the international community to dismiss the reporting of CNN International, it looks like some are already taking heed. Libyan media is now questioning the authenticity of a bombshell report by CNNi that revealed refugees being bought and sold as slaves in Libya.

As reporter Jenan Moussa noted while translating the Libyan article, it stated that “legal steps could start to sue” CNNi for its reporting following Trump’s tweet

https://www.mediaite.com/online/libyan- ... -in-tweet/

[Daehawk]

Im lost now days.

Does trump cry fake news all the time because he is crazy, to hide the real facts, or because he actually believes its fake and is just stupid?

[Defiant]

Does trump cry fake news all the time because he is crazy, to hide the real facts, or because he actually believes its fake and is just stupid?

Yes.

[Max Peck]

Trump's Jerusalem calls spark warnings from Arab leaders

Arab leaders have warned US President Donald Trump that moving the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem could have dangerous repercussions.

Mr Trump phoned several regional leaders on Tuesday to tell them he intended to move it from Tel Aviv.

Saudi Arabia's King Salman told the US leader that any such move would provoke Muslims around the world.

The calls came amid speculation that Mr Trump could recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital on Wednesday.

He is scheduled to deliver remarks and White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said he was "pretty solid" in his thinking on the issue.

The city's fate is one of the thorniest issues between Israel and the Palestinians.

If Washington recognises Jerusalem as Israel's capital, it would be the first country to do so since the foundation of the state in 1948.

[Kraken]

Yeah, that's gonna cause a shitstorm tomorrow...and all just to throw more red meat to his base. Another story said that the Pentagon is positioning troops for rapid deployment to our most vulnerable embassies, so I'm sure there's nothing to worry about.

[Smoove_B]

Now that Bannon is gone, who's acting as Wormtongue? In the same way that I don't believe for five seconds Trump is interested in (or knows about) the resizing of national monuments, who is whispering to him that moving the American embassy is something that needs to be done. Not only right now, but at all? I know he was blathering about this during the campaign, but is this really a core GOP belief? I plead total ignorance on the issue.

[RunningMn9]

They’re done stiggin’it to you. Time to start stiggin’it to those Muslim savages.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Max Peck]

Now that Bannon is gone, who's acting as Wormtongue? In the same way that I don't believe for five seconds Trump is interested in (or knows about) the resizing of national monuments, who is whispering to him that moving the American embassy is something that needs to be done. Not only right now, but at all? I know he was blathering about this during the campaign, but is this really a core GOP belief? I plead total ignorance on the issue.

Kushner is Trump's man for all things Israel, last I heard.

It'll be interesting to see if this pushes any of America's Arab allies further into the Russian sphere of influence. Turkey is obviously already well on its way, and the Saudis have been hedging their bets this year by cutting some arms deals with Moscow already in parallel with their purchases from the USA.

[Kurth]

I really can't see why he'd relocate our embassy to Jerusalem at this time except with the aim of provoking a terrorist attack to create (1) distraction and (2) support for his immigration policies.

[Daehawk]

Theres something off about Kushner. Im starting to have this weird thought that he is actually a woman. Ya has kids with Ivana...but reminds me of Boys Dont Cry. Girl or not something is not right. Its hinky

[Holman]

Now that Bannon is gone, who's acting as Wormtongue? In the same way that I don't believe for five seconds Trump is interested in (or knows about) the resizing of national monuments, who is whispering to him that moving the American embassy is something that needs to be done. Not only right now, but at all? I know he was blathering about this during the campaign, but is this really a core GOP belief? I plead total ignorance on the issue.

Obama expanded monument lands, so they're on the list of things to undo.

Moving the embassy to Israel has been a long-term dream of Middle-east hardliners and Evangelicals alike. It's got terrific narrative value, so he looks like a hero even if there are clashes and people die.

[LawBeefaroni]

I really can't see why he'd relocate our embassy to Jerusalem at this time except with the aim of provoking a terrorist attack to create (1) distraction and (2) support for his immigration policies.

The only purpose is to incite a reaction.


Prepare to be bombarded by footage of scary olive skinned people burning flags. Some recycled footage from decades past if it's not crazy enough on Friday.

Perfect justification to further the cause of fanatical nationalism and ignorant isolationism.

[Paingod]

Does trump cry fake news all the time because he is crazy, to hide the real facts, or because he actually believes its fake and is just stupid?

Yes.

More and more I feel like we're watching a racist and spiteful Zaphod Beeblebrox run our country.

[Isgrimnur]

Does trump cry fake news all the time because he is crazy, to hide the real facts, or because he actually believes its fake and is just stupid?

Yes.

More and more I feel like we're watching a racist and spiteful Zaphod Beeblebrox run our country.

The President is very much a figurehead - he wields no real power whatsoever. He is apparently chosen by the government, but the qualities he is required to display are not those of leadership but those of finely judged outrage. For this reason the President is always a controversial choice, always an infuriating but fascinating character. His job is not to wield power but to draw attention away from it.

An orange sash is what the President of the Galaxy traditionally wears.

On those criteria Zaphod Beeblebrox is one of the most successful Presidents the Galaxy has ever had. He spent two of his ten Presidential years in prison for fraud. Very very few people realize that the President and the Government have virtually no power at all, and of these very few people only six know whence ultimate political power is wielded. Most of the others secretly believe that the ultimate decision-making process is handled by a computer. They couldn't be more wrong.

[Defiant]

I imagine Trump is trying to fulfill his promise of moving the embassy to Jerusalem and sore up support among some of his voters. And it's not like it's that shocking of a move - Congress overwhelmingly called for the move decades ago, and every major presidential candidate for office has called for it during their campaigns.

And it could be done in such a way that it wouldn't be anywhere near as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Move it to West Jerusalem, which is within the Green Line, is clearly Israeli territory (as it has been since the '48 war) and has never been up for negotiation, and do it carefully and methodically and it could be done fairly smoothly (there would probably be an increase in violence indistinguishable from the regularly scheduled "cycle of violence"). Given that this is Trump, though, it would probably be moved to the lobby of a new Trump Hotel located right in the middle of the Temple Mount.

[milo]

It'll be interesting to see if this pushes any of America's Arab allies further into the Russian sphere of influence.

I don't see why it would.

[malchior]

The Russian position is slightly different - West Jerusalem to Isreal and East Jerusalem to Palestine. That difference is pretty meaningful to some though.

[Sepiche]

I guess this means Jared isn't going to be able to bring about Mideast peace after all.

[malchior]

I guess this means Jared isn't going to be able to bring about Mideast peace after all.

True that - this is a set up to back out the door after setting the room on fire. 'Oh the room is on fire? How did this happen? Gotta go' Cue: *SCOOBY DOO RUNNING IN THE AIR' animation.

[El Guapo]

I guess this means Jared isn't going to be able to bring about Mideast peace after all.

No no no. Trump said that the move is going to help advance the peace process. So we're all set.

[Max Peck]

It'll be interesting to see if this pushes any of America's Arab allies further into the Russian sphere of influence.

I don't see why it would.

Maybe because countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already been sidling up to Russia this year (check out the arms deals they've been making). If America's stock goes down in the region, Russia is willing and able to take advantage of the opening.

[Defiant]

I'm skeptical that the Saudis would be so invested in this particular issue as to change their foreign policy so dramatically.

In a mysterious trip last month, Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, traveled to Saudi Arabia’s capital for consultations with the hard-charging crown prince about President Trump’s plans for Middle East peace.

The Palestinians would not be given East Jerusalem as their capital and there would be no right of return for Palestinian refugees and their descendants.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/03/worl ... -plan.html

[tjg_marantz]

Oh shit. LoL

[Rip]

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... ic/547688/

President Trump was correct when he said Wednesday that recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is “nothing more nor less than a recognition of reality—it is also the right thing to do.” In fact, the U.S. decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is 68 years overdue.

Jerusalem was established as the capital of the newly independent state of Israel on December 13, 1949. This was Jerusalem west of the ceasefire line delineated at the end of the war for Israel’s independence, later to be known as the pre-1967 line. This part of Jerusalem included Jewish residential neighborhoods built in preceding decades. There was nothing holy about this part of Jerusalem. By the end of the war the holy and ancient sites were actually east of the ceasefire line: the entire Old City, including the sites holiest to the Jewish people. The Temple Mount, the Wailing Wall, and the Jewish Quarter all came under Jordanian control, and Jews were denied access to these sites.

The United States recognized the State of Israel upon its independence, so it should have been straightforward for the U.S. to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and to establish its embassy there. If anything, it is the Jordanian annexation of the Old City and the way Jews were denied access that should have led to international consternation (it didn’t).

Why didn’t the U.S. and all other countries recognize residential, non-holy, west-of-the-armistice-line Jerusalem as Israel’s capital? At the time the U.S. was still attached to an idea, proposed in the United Nations partition resolution of 1947, that the vast area of greater Jerusalem (including residential neighborhoods) as well as Bethlehem should be a “Corpus Separatum,” a separate area that would be governed by the international community.

This fiction never existed anywhere but on paper. It never existed because the Arabs rejected the partition proposal and started a war to prevent it from being realized. When they lost that war, Jerusalem west of the armistice line became Israel’s, and Jerusalem east of the line came under Jordanian occupation and entered an extended period of disputed claims. So the U.S., while recognizing Israel within the armistice lines, chose a policy that held the status of Israel’s capital hostage to a fiction that never had a chance of existing.

[Max Peck]

I thought Trump had punted this issue, but apparently my metaphor was all wrong -- it's not so much a football as it is a hot potato.

U.S. Congress to let Iran deadline pass, leave decision to Trump

The U.S. Congress will allow a deadline on re-imposing sanctions on Iran to pass this week, congressional and White House aides said on Tuesday, leaving a pact between world powers and Tehran intact at least temporarily.

In October, Trump declined to certify that Iran was complying with the nuclear agreement reached among Tehran, the United States and others in 2015. His decision triggered a 60-day window for Congress to decide whether to bring back sanctions on Iran.

Congressional leaders have announced no plans to introduce a resolution to re-impose sanctions before Wednesday’s deadline and aides say lawmakers will let the deadline pass without action.

By doing that, Congress passes the ball back to Trump, who must decide in mid-January if he wants to continue to waive energy sanctions on Iran.

Trump’s failure to do so would blow apart the deal, a course opposed by European allies, Russia and China, the other parties to the accord, under which Iran got sanctions relief in return for curbing its nuclear ambitions.

[Defiant]

Trump Threatens to End American Aid: ‘We’re Watching Those Votes’ at the U.N.

President Trump threatened on Wednesday to cut off American aid to any country that votes in favor of a resolution at the United Nations General Assembly denouncing his recent decision to formally recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

True to form, Trump manages to fuck up. As much as I support moving the embassy and recognizing Jerusalem as the capital, this is not the way to do this.

[LordMortis]

That's the art of the deal, Russian Mafia style.