The Trump foreign policy thread

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malchior
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by malchior »

RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:43 am
Fitzy wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:20 am Huh? Right before WWII was the most prosperous time in US history... :doh:
The most prosperous time in US history was after WW2 (the 50s I believe is considered the start golden age of the US economy before it went into the shitter in the 1970s).
Do you mean when it started to become in equal? I'd argue the most prosperous time is now.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by RunningMn9 »

malchior wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:51 amDo you mean when it started to become in equal? I'd argue the most prosperous time is now.
No, I mean the most prosperous time, which is considered by economists as the Golden Age(tm) of the US economy. Average global economic growth during that period was around 4.8%, over a 20+ time period. That is well above what it is today.

OpEd:
It was the Golden Age of the U.S. economy, the quarter century between 1948 and 1973, when the U.S. reigned supreme, manufacturing flourished and the American middle class prospered.

During those 25 years, real GDP rose 169%, employment increased by 75% and manufacturing jobs by 30%, while per capita personal income almost doubled.

People of all incomes and education levels could live the American Dream and came to believe that being an American meant your children and grandchildren were almost guaranteed to be better off than you were.

It was, in retrospect, an impossible dream, which ended with the Arab oil embargo and the Great Inflation of the 1970s, followed by the deep recession of the early 1980s.
Now can't hold a candle to the post-war boom.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
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malchior
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by malchior »

Gotcha - from a growth perspective. I've seen prosperity defined several different ways. One being overall wealth which is at peak levels right now. If it was a measure of broad based wealth and growth it would definitely cover the period you highlighted. Though achieving 5% growth is practically impossible in a developed economy. That we got there at all is pretty amazing.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by GreenGoo »

stessier wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:33 am
Fitzy wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:20 am
Huh? Right before WWII was the most prosperous time in US history... :doh:
The years of the Great Depression are considered prosperous?
The decade preceding WWII was the great depression, which didn't end until the war economy kicked in. Not sure what fitzy is thinking here, but :doh: is right.

Today is not the 1950's (re: Rmn9's comment). Western economies are now truly global and interconnected. Trying to unhitch from the global economy almost guarantees a new depression.

Becoming isolationist is a sure way to reduce the US's standing in the world. All the work done post world war ii will be flushed down the toilet and a new age of US irrelevance will be ushered in.

In short, Putin wins.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by El Guapo »

It's kind of crazy to contemplate, but what are the odds that Trump withdraws the U.S. from NATO within a year? 50%? Higher?

Madness. Madness and stupidity.

I guess I'm assuming for this that Trump can withdraw the U.S. without congressional action, which I don't know. If Congress has to sign off then the odds go way down.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Smoove_B »

I wish I could remember where I was reading it exactly, but the author (or if I heard it on the radio) was making the case that really, what Trump is seemingly doing (trying to break away from NATO) is the culmination of 20+ years of a splinter movement in the GOP that has been angry that our EU allies haven't been (in their eyes) contributing to the Global War on Terror (tm) to the same degree as the American people. In their minds, they're freeloading off American "world police" activities and by breaking away from NATO we're no longer under any obligation to help them out "over there", i.e. screw them. It's not about economies, monies owed or even raw politics, it's a vengeful position based on their perceptions of all the military action to-date and how we're (in their eyes) still carrying the full burden of keeping members of the EU safe after 50+ years of a post WW2 environment.

I'm sure I'm mangling it a bit, but when you look at the bigger picture and how did it get to this point (with Trump acting as the mouthpiece), it definitely made more sense.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:01 pm It's kind of crazy to contemplate, but what are the odds that Trump withdraws the U.S. from NATO within a year? 50%? Higher?

Madness. Madness and stupidity.

I guess I'm assuming for this that Trump can withdraw the U.S. without congressional action, which I don't know. If Congress has to sign off then the odds go way down.
Unclear Constitutionally. It probably requires Congress is what I've seen mostly. That isn't comforting to me because Trump does whatever the fuck he wants and Congress averts its eyes since they are craven sacks of shit.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by El Guapo »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:03 pm I wish I could remember where I was reading it exactly, but the author (or if I heard it on the radio) was making the case that really, what Trump is seemingly doing (trying to break away from NATO) is the culmination of 20+ years of a splinter movement in the GOP that has been angry that our EU allies haven't been (in their eyes) contributing to the Global War on Terror (tm) to the same degree as the American people. In their minds, they're freeloading off American "world police" activities and by breaking away from NATO we're no longer under any obligation to help them out "over there", i.e. screw them. It's not about economies, monies owed or even raw politics, it's a vengeful position based on their perceptions of all the military action to-date and how we're (in their eyes) still carrying the full burden of keeping members of the EU safe after 50+ years of a post WW2 environment.

I'm sure I'm mangling it a bit, but when you look at the bigger picture and how did it get to this point (with Trump acting as the mouthpiece), it definitely made more sense.
He may be playing on that, but it makes the most sense when you view it as Trump the autocrat making nice with other autocrats and harping on and weakening democratic rivals.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Oh, Trump might have his own reasoning completely unrelated to the splinter GOP movement. However, seeing as how he's a super effective bully, they wind him up and aim it at the alliance members knowing full well he's going to undermine the relationship and dramatically increase the chances that they'll get the sweet release they've been wishing for after 20+ years.

Again, it's seemingly part of the greater narrative that he's as transparent as a window and easy to manipulate. It fits within the larger picture of his entire administration - that he's being used by any number of groups or individuals to further their interests. Domestic, foreign, corporate, religious - if they tell him what he wants to hear, they get to further their own agenda(s).
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malchior
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by malchior »

I'd agree with that theory if Trump hadn't started talk about how foreign governments take advantage of us nonsense back in the 80s. He has been fairly consistent on this point tbh. One of the few where he doesn't change his tune over time. It plays entirely into his sophomoric winner take all ethos.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by El Guapo »

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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Rip »

Holman wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:01 am
Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:41 am Right, Putin's stooge is mocking the EU for being unwilling to detach from the Russian oil/gas teet.

:lol:
You're not really that dense.

Trump is there to sow chaos, disrupt NATO, and throw a smokescreen over his own dealings with Putin. If he really thought Russia was a threat, wouldn't he at some point criticize Putin instead of constantly praising him while dumping on our allies?
If the EU saw him as a threat would they really be building a nice fat gas pipeline to fill up Putin's pocketbook? Just imagine the dirty deeds he will be capable of once the profits from that start rolling in. They talk a lot of Putin hate but at the end of the days they are still happy to send him bags of cash.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by LordMortis »

Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:38 pm If the EU saw him as a threat would they really be building a nice fat gas pipeline to fill up Putin's pocketbook? Just imagine the dirty deeds he will be capable of once the profits from that start rolling in. They talk a lot of Putin hate but at the end of the days they are still happy to send him bags of cash.
If the US saw Russia as such a threat would elect a president in their pocket? Send our over GOP senators? Make the SOS someone trying to open Russian oil fields for Exxon? Help them with technology to do that development? Drive international trade off US shores to Russian front doorstep by the tens of billions of dollars? Refuse to say anything negative about them while attacking our closest allies? Refuse to enforce embargos while creating tarriff for other countries and then chastise them for having Russia as a trading partner? I don't think US is capable of that kind of break down with the system of checks and balances that have held it together for 250 years.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Holman »

Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:38 pm
Holman wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:01 am
Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:41 am Right, Putin's stooge is mocking the EU for being unwilling to detach from the Russian oil/gas teet.

:lol:
You're not really that dense.

Trump is there to sow chaos, disrupt NATO, and throw a smokescreen over his own dealings with Putin. If he really thought Russia was a threat, wouldn't he at some point criticize Putin instead of constantly praising him while dumping on our allies?
If the EU saw him as a threat would they really be building a nice fat gas pipeline to fill up Putin's pocketbook? Just imagine the dirty deeds he will be capable of once the profits from that start rolling in. They talk a lot of Putin hate but at the end of the days they are still happy to send him bags of cash.
Yes, it would indeed be strange if the needs of a massive energy economy caused a nation to depend on resources from rivals without their best interests at heart. Good thing that could never happen to us.

Interesting to see you taking the line that Putin isn't a real threat, though. It's kind of a reset.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Fitzy »

stessier wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:33 am
Fitzy wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:20 am
GreenGoo wrote: Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:29 pm Prior to WWII the us was isolationist. That's not ancient history. It's not hard to imagine a US huddled in on itself. What *is* hard to imagine is a prosperous US huddled in on itself.
Huh? Right before WWII was the most prosperous time in US history... :doh:
The years of the Great Depression are considered prosperous?
RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:43 am
The most prosperous time in US history was after WW2 (the 50s I believe is considered the start golden age of the US economy before it went into the shitter in the 1970s).
GreenGoo wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:55 pm
Not sure what fitzy is thinking here, but :doh: is right.
It was a joke people! It sounded better in my head than in text, but I thought it would be obvious. :oops:
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Flew right over my head.

Well done.

My apologies for missing it. :D
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:01 pm It's kind of crazy to contemplate, but what are the odds that Trump withdraws the U.S. from NATO within a year? 50%? Higher?
Some of us have been contemplating this possibility for a couple of years. And when I mean us, I include you.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Holman wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:51 pm

Interesting to see you taking the line that Putin isn't a real threat, though. It's kind of a reset.
It seems every time rip opens his mouth these days it's to try to stop people from looking at the man behind the curtain.

With the preponderance of evidence that there is a man behind the curtain, his trolling has gone from annoying to disquieting.

But hey, at least he's polite about it.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:31 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:01 pm It's kind of crazy to contemplate, but what are the odds that Trump withdraws the U.S. from NATO within a year? 50%? Higher?
Some of us have been contemplating this possibility for a couple of years. And when I mean us, I include you.
Man, those guys seem pretty sharp - we should listen to them.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Rip »

Holman wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:51 pm
Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:38 pm
Holman wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:01 am
Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:41 am Right, Putin's stooge is mocking the EU for being unwilling to detach from the Russian oil/gas teet.

:lol:
You're not really that dense.

Trump is there to sow chaos, disrupt NATO, and throw a smokescreen over his own dealings with Putin. If he really thought Russia was a threat, wouldn't he at some point criticize Putin instead of constantly praising him while dumping on our allies?
If the EU saw him as a threat would they really be building a nice fat gas pipeline to fill up Putin's pocketbook? Just imagine the dirty deeds he will be capable of once the profits from that start rolling in. They talk a lot of Putin hate but at the end of the days they are still happy to send him bags of cash.
Yes, it would indeed be strange if the needs of a massive energy economy caused a nation to depend on resources from rivals without their best interests at heart. Good thing that could never happen to us.

Interesting to see you taking the line that Putin isn't a real threat, though. It's kind of a reset.
I think I have covered this. I see him as a much bigger threat than most of you. I would be all for military action and/or full on blocking of trade. Unfortunately your "friends" in Europe are more than happy to do business with him no matter what and don't have the stomach for actual military action against him. They hold way more cards to use against him than we do, short of military action.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by GreenGoo »

The US has done nearly 10 billion in trade with Russia in the first 6 months of 2018.

Physician, heal thy self.

EU's trade with Russia dropped by more than 40% over the last 6 years, in part due to sanctions.

Not every problem is a nail, Mr. Military intervention.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Holman »

Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:17 pm I think I have covered this. I see him as a much bigger threat than most of you. I would be all for military action and/or full on blocking of trade. Unfortunately your "friends" in Europe are more than happy to do business with him no matter what and don't have the stomach for actual military action against him. They hold way more cards to use against him than we do, short of military action.
Putin's threat isn't primarily military. NATO countries (even excluding the US) definitely outspend him. He can't invade Germany.

The danger is that he will be allowed to nibble away at more corners like Crimea, something he can do much more easily if he has a US president basically endorsing his ambitions.

The even greater danger is Putin's information-warfare, his funding of fascism, and his undermining of advanced democracies worldwide. This threat is clear to every US ally, to our own intelligence agencies, and to one of our political parties. Only Republicans turn a blind eye to it, and Trump denies it while hoping to benefit further from it.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

CNBC
U.S. President Donald Trump told NATO leaders on Wednesday they should increase their defence spending to 4 percent of their country's economic output, double the group's current goal of two percent.

NATO allies shrugged off the demand as part and parcel of Trump's brash push for allies to spend more on their own defence at a summit in Brussels, with a quip from the alliance's chief that it should aim to meet its goal before reaching further.

"We should first get to 2 pct," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, adding that eight of the 29 allies were meeting that target, while others had a plan to do - turning a leaf on years of defence budget cuts.

Striking a strident tone at the summit, Trump's aspirational target of 4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) was above the United States own spending on defence.

The United States, the world's biggest military power, spent some 3.57 percent on defence last year, according to NATO figures.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Rip »

GreenGoo wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:41 pm The US has done nearly 10 billion in trade with Russia in the first 6 months of 2018.

Physician, heal thy self.

EU's trade with Russia dropped by more than 40% over the last 6 years, in part due to sanctions.

Not every problem is a nail, Mr. Military intervention.
$10B is nothing, Germany does twice that all by itself. Despite having a fifth of the GDP.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Rip »

Holman wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:12 pm
Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:17 pm I think I have covered this. I see him as a much bigger threat than most of you. I would be all for military action and/or full on blocking of trade. Unfortunately your "friends" in Europe are more than happy to do business with him no matter what and don't have the stomach for actual military action against him. They hold way more cards to use against him than we do, short of military action.
Putin's threat isn't primarily military. NATO countries (even excluding the US) definitely outspend him. He can't invade Germany.

The danger is that he will be allowed to nibble away at more corners like Crimea, something he can do much more easily if he has a US president basically endorsing his ambitions.

The even greater danger is Putin's information-warfare, his funding of fascism, and his undermining of advanced democracies worldwide. This threat is clear to every US ally, to our own intelligence agencies, and to one of our political parties. Only Republicans turn a blind eye to it, and Trump denies it while hoping to benefit further from it.
You vastly underestimate Russia's military power. Russia has nearly 16,000 tanks, the entire EU has less than 7000. They have 6000 self-propelled guns, EU has around 2300. Nearly 4000 MLRSs(multiple rocket launchers), EU has about 1000. The only real advantage of substance the EU is in aircraft. Of course those use a lot of fuel......
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by GreenGoo »

That's why starving NK and Russia to death is the appropriate response, not full scale war.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:10 pm
GreenGoo wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:41 pm The US has done nearly 10 billion in trade with Russia in the first 6 months of 2018.

Physician, heal thy self.

EU's trade with Russia dropped by more than 40% over the last 6 years, in part due to sanctions.

Not every problem is a nail, Mr. Military intervention.
$10B is nothing, Germany does twice that all by itself. Despite having a fifth of the GDP.
You're whining that Germany does trade with nearby Russia while you're own country with less economic pressure and less geographic proximity does the same.

We know why Germany trades with Russia. Why does the us? Insatiable desire for matryoshka dolls?

The key is to know things then have an opinion, not have an opinion then find things that make it right.

Get your own trade in order before you start managing other economically successful countries.

You're not very good at this, and that's coming from someone who's admittedly terrible at it.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Rip »

GreenGoo wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:38 pm That's why starving NK and Russia to death is the appropriate response, not full scale war.
Yea, I'm sure that the money from that huge pipeline of gas is going to set them right on the path to starving.

The pipeline is right there along with causing election discord in Putin's plan.

https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2 ... wer-000460

Image
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Double post or something.
Last edited by GreenGoo on Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Trade is down 40%.

Trade that was reduced at the behest of US leadership.

It isn't the EU keeping them afloat.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Holman »


North Atlantic Council @NATO's highest political body is now in emergency session after @realDonaldTrump threatens "grave consequences" and effective #US pull-out from alliance if allies do not immediately meet higher spending targets. @POLITICOEurope
He's trying to do it. This is what Putin paid for.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Holman »

Remember the relaxed, carefree days of 2017 when we thought Trump just aimed to ride the gravy train instead of destroy the West?
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Holman »

Rip wrote: Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:10 pm
You vastly underestimate Russia's military power. Russia has nearly 16,000 tanks, the entire EU has less than 7000. They have 6000 self-propelled guns, EU has around 2300. Nearly 4000 MLRSs(multiple rocket launchers), EU has about 1000. The only real advantage of substance the EU is in aircraft. Of course those use a lot of fuel......
Most of Russia's tank force is inactive, and most of it is outdated. Putting aside the new Armata (of which they have less than 100, and which apparently has major teething problems), they have a couple of thousand T-90s, and the rest are 70's/80s era technology. Putin's conventional force is hamstrung by all kinds of difficulties, logistical and even social. That's why he has invested so heavily in unconventional warfare.

But I'm not going to debate this when the most immediate single threat to NATO and European peace is the president you voted for.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by LordMortis »

Can we MiExit to become part of Ontario? Trump hates Detroit automotive anyway. We can shut Kentucky Truck and the likes move production to plenty of Oshawa or Ontario assembly and the like. He can keep Grand Rapids and they're Trump loving asses. Everyone's happy... That is if Canada will have us.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by malchior »

Excellent summation!

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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Holman »

Trump claimed at his presser that everyone in NATO agreed to pay more and on a swifter schedule because he is tough and whipped them into shape. His enablers on the Right are calling it a huge win for the US. (A huge win... against NATO. Let that sink in.)

Of course NATO heads are already denying that there has been any change to previously agreed funding schedules, and inside sources are lining up to describe Trump's behavior and policy ignorance to every journalist in Europe.

The win is Putin's. Trump has broken the US's once-ironclad commitment to NATO and the West, making it clear that he sees it as a purely transactional relationship rather than an alliance of enlightened democracies. That's something that can't be walked back. That line is crossed forever.

Meanwhile Trump is already making friendly noises about Putin, hinting that it's time to turn the page on Crimea sanctions and suggesting that election interference is (despite the findings of every Western intelligence agency) just a he-said/she-said issue.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by malchior »

Holman wrote: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:43 am The win is Putin's. Trump has broken the US's once-ironclad commitment to NATO and the West, making it clear that he sees it as a purely transactional relationship rather than an alliance of enlightened democracies. That's something that can't be walked back. That line is crossed forever.
Trump is transactional and I these folks know that well. I think the line we crossed was that they are seeing a President of the United States that is completely unhinged. Worse millions of voters pulled a lever for this idiot. And Congress aside from a useless show of support has avoided restraining his worst impulses. They surely weren't placated by that vote this week.

Moreover, they may have come to understand our political dysfunction. Better than our own citizens no doubt. And that it is trending towards more dysfunction so if they do end up increasing spending it'd be as much a function of that as this 'negotiating' bullshit. We are now both an ally and becoming a possible threat. And multiple NATO meetings and face-to-face meetings have now reinforced that.
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

John Kelly’s reaction wasn’t about Trump’s comments on Germany, he just hates breakfast pastries!
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by malchior »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:14 am John Kelly’s reaction wasn’t about Trump’s comments on Germany, he just hates breakfast pastries!
There are potentially serious undertones there. Why did they do announce this? Are they petty? Lying about his true reaction? General craziness? And/or to show that Kelly is on the outs? Who the fuck knows. It's Trump-land!
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Re: The Trump foreign policy thread

Post by Fitzy »

LordMortis wrote: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:19 am Can we MiExit to become part of Ontario? Trump hates Detroit automotive anyway. We can shut Kentucky Truck and the likes move production to plenty of Oshawa or Ontario assembly and the like. He can keep Grand Rapids and they're Trump loving asses. Everyone's happy... That is if Canada will have us.
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