The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Isgrimnur]

Found it.

WaPo reporting.

[hepcat]

it looks like we are in a no win place. Either pursue "investigations" and Trump grandstands about the "endless" investigations, open an impeachment inquiry that leads to Trump playing the aggrieved party, or do nothing and Trump wins there too. Mostly because the American people are asleep at the wheel. Talk about depressing.

There's also the option to not play into Trump's game, let Biden work his magic with blue collar America (which he's already doing), concentrate on the message that the Dems want to be the adults in the room, point out the problems that Trump has gotten himself into in the Middle East and with the tariffs, and get into a much better position for 2020.

[malchior]

Found it.

WaPo reporting.

One read is that people are essentially buying the Barr/Trump interpretation of the report effectively. What we are seeing is a pretty big failure at a societal level. The fractures and core rot that led to Trump's election are only worsening. The media still hasn't figured out how to avoid being a megaphone for misinformation. The public still is gullible as ever. The system is paralyzed to react. We are in the middle of a full failure state.

[malchior]

There's also the option to not play into Trump's game, let Biden work his magic with blue collar America (which he's already doing), concentrate on the message that the Dems want to be the adults in the room, point out the problems that Trump has gotten himself into in the Middle East and with the tariffs, and get into a much better position for 2020.

I unfortunately don't think it is possible to not play Trump's game. The media largely is blowing oxygen into the engine of Trump's game at all times. Heck...the horse race coverage is already starting up despite everything we saw in 2016.

However, I agree Biden and a few other folks could get the blue collar vote back again. They are going to have a tough time walking the lines they need to. And it remains to be seen how large the effect will be simply a side effect of the damage Trump is inflicting on them economically. Perhaps any reasonable Democrat candidate will be able to win over a good number of them.

As an aside, I don't believe in the 'being adults' angle. Americans largely don't give a damn. Otherwise, this shit would have stopped long ago.

[hepcat]

I actually do think more and more people are getting tired of juvenile, reality tv antics from this douchebag. Not enough to make a difference yet, but I'm hoping it becomes a groundswell.

[Kurth]

But again - is impeachment and acquittal holding the President accountable? It just seems like impeachment plans are mostly a mix of "he deserves it" along with a hope and a prayer, but they're not really plans that have a reasonable prospect of achieving anything substantial.

Even if it's just in the history books, I'd consider it a win for American democracy.

Really? Impeaching Trump may end up being unavoidable, but it sure isn’t great for American democracy.

As much as we can’t stand him, Trump was elected to the office, and there’s no real evidence (despite Trump’s protestations otherwise) that it wasn’t a free and fair election. Even if we reach the point where there’s a massive, undeniable groundswell of public support for the argument that Trump absolutely has to go and we can’t wait until 2020 to vote him out of office, that’s not a “win” for democracy. It’s the acknowledgment of a terrible systemic mistake in voting in someone who was clearly unqualified to hold the office in the first place. Even if impeachment AND removal were successful (and we all know the latter is not possible), at best, that would be a win for American institutions and our Constitutional checks and balances. But removing the guy who was duly voted into office is not a win for representational democracy.

Apologies if I’m being too literal and that is actually what you meant. But the issue touches a nerve for me for the reasons I mentioned above.

[YellowKing]

What's worse for democracy - removing (or bringing impeachment proceedings against) a President who has failed in his duty, or Congress failing to do the job the American people elected them to do and that Robert Mueller asked them to do?

Impeachment IS the mechanism by which we are able to hold a President accountable for crimes or failure in his duty to serve and protect the American people. Whether it's popular or not, it's the tool we have.

[malchior]

Really? Impeaching Trump may end up being unavoidable, but it sure isn’t great for American democracy.

As much as we can’t stand him, Trump was elected to the office, and there’s no real evidence (despite Trump’s protestations otherwise) that it wasn’t a free and fair election. Even if we reach the point where there’s a massive, undeniable groundswell of public support for the argument that Trump absolutely has to go and we can’t wait until 2020 to vote him out of office, that’s not a “win” for democracy. It’s the acknowledgment of a terrible systemic mistake in voting in someone who was clearly unqualified to hold the office in the first place. Even if impeachment AND removal were successful (and we all know the latter is not possible), at best, that would be a win for American institutions and our Constitutional checks and balances. But removing the guy who was duly voted into office is not a win for representational democracy.

Apologies if I’m being too literal and that is actually what you meant. But the issue touches a nerve for me for the reasons I mentioned above.

I think the framing here is wrong. Impeachment doesn't negate the election. It is the mechanism to address conduct in office.

Edit: YK got here first.

[Jeff V]

Impeachment would likely be for obstruction. Is contempt of Congress an impeachable offence? Surely the many, many many lies he's told should have some legal consequence if pursued?

[Remus West]

The issue is not "if" but rather "when" really. Pelosi is looking at the outcome of starting now, when it would be a very long drawn out battle in the courts or starting after the court battles are won, which they are working on right now. The Mueller report was sanitized by tRump's AG and too many folks did not read or believe those who did read it. The Dems need to gather all of the evidence through their own investigation to make this thing stick in the public eye as well as in both houses of Congress because impeachment without removal simply leads to another 4 years of tRump regardless of how horrid he has been. If they impeach in the house and he is cleared in the Senate there won't be a single tRump supporter that doesn't turn out to vote while many that would vote Dem will be disheartened and stay home in 2020. Thats exactly how he carried 2016, too many people in key states stayed home. I know a TON of people who didn't want tRump elected but thought there was no way he would beat HRC and stayed home. And Michigan went Red. I'd rather they stay the course and work on making their case ironclad then launch into what would amount to a PR move for the POtuS.

[Kraken]

Found it.

WaPo reporting.

At 41%, the "should impeach" number is up from the last poll I saw a couple of weeks ago, which was in the mid-30s. One hopes it continues to nudge up, but the most damning evidence probably won't emerge until impeachment begins. It's definitely a gamble at this point. (I still support Pelosi's cautious, go-slow approach for now.)

[hepcat]

Really? Impeaching Trump may end up being unavoidable, but it sure isn’t great for American democracy.

As much as we can’t stand him, Trump was elected to the office, and there’s no real evidence (despite Trump’s protestations otherwise) that it wasn’t a free and fair election. Even if we reach the point where there’s a massive, undeniable groundswell of public support for the argument that Trump absolutely has to go and we can’t wait until 2020 to vote him out of office, that’s not a “win” for democracy. It’s the acknowledgment of a terrible systemic mistake in voting in someone who was clearly unqualified to hold the office in the first place. Even if impeachment AND removal were successful (and we all know the latter is not possible), at best, that would be a win for American institutions and our Constitutional checks and balances. But removing the guy who was duly voted into office is not a win for representational democracy.

Apologies if I’m being too literal and that is actually what you meant. But the issue touches a nerve for me for the reasons I mentioned above.

I think the framing here is wrong. Impeachment doesn't negate the election. It is the mechanism to address conduct in office.

Edit: YK got here first.

Normally I'd agree with you and YK 100 percent.

But we're way past normal. At this juncture, it's incredibly important that the Dems get him out if we want to restore any sense of integrity to the office. And to that end, 2020 is the best option. Doing anything to jeopardize that is a non starter for many of us.

Now, that being said, if his financials reveal rampant corruption, I'd definitely say "string him up".

[YellowKing]

As impeachment trigger-happy as I appear on these boards, I'm warming to Pelosi's more cautious approach. Primarily in light of recent court wins. She hasn't gotten where she is by being a political dunce, so for now it's in Nancy We Trust. I also think she's incredibly shrewd when it comes to how to handle Trump, so I have to believe there's method to her madness.

[Zarathud]

I am hesitant on impeachment because the public doesn't care about open obstruction. That's shown from the history of Newt/Mitch and the Tea Party. The Congress needs a better headline to win.

Trump is planning on a fight so that he can blame the investigations for getting nothing done. That's where the Democrats need to hammer. Pass stuff to have Mitch refuse to vote or Trump veto. The news needs drama to survive, and if they get a new storyline it will sell.

[Jeff V]

I am hesitant on impeachment because the public doesn't care about open obstruction. That's shown from the history of Newt/Mitch and the Tea Party. The Congress needs a better headline to win.

Trump is planning on a fight so that he can blame the investigations for getting nothing done. That's where the Democrats need to hammer. Pass stuff to have Mitch refuse to vote or Trump veto. The news needs drama to survive, and if they get a new storyline it will sell.

None of which will make it past the Fox News filter and therefore reach voters who brains need to be deprogrammed.

[El Guapo]

I broadly agree with the thoughts in this thread, and think Barro argues it well:



Click on it to read the thread.

[Blackhawk]

I still think they should start proceedings and then draw out the investigation just enough to land the vote after next November. Get every eye in the nation looking at the evidence, impeach him before he leaves, have it on the record, but don't finalize the vote until after the votes are tallied.

[hepcat]

Barro nails it.

[Smoove_B]

There's also the option to not play into Trump's game, let Biden work his magic with blue collar America (which he's already doing), concentrate on the message that the Dems want to be the adults in the room, point out the problems that Trump has gotten himself into in the Middle East and with the tariffs, and get into a much better position for 2020.

Maybe I'm cynical or defeatist, but I fee like there's still real potential for additional long-term harm to occur between now and the presumptive election of a functioning adult. There are days I think all this sandbagging and political smoke-screening is being done in the hopes that Trump will get to name a third (!) Supreme Court Justice before 2020.

I understand things take time and everything needs to follow a process. However, I'm not left with the impression that "the system" is in any way following the process or will comply with orders to follow the process - which means those that are trying to do what's right or what is required are never going to get anywhere. I want to believe this will all end up with a positive outcome, but the damage that's been done so far is unthinkable. To believe it will continue indefinitely? It's insane.

[LordMortis]

Look at the bright side of possablities. If there is no impeachment and the GOP is voted out in 2020, there is no one to pardon him or his mob after he is gone. The full extent of the law can take them down one by one or two by two if they are truly guilty and if they are guilty their crimes are serious enough to not let them hide anywhere in the world. Can you imagine Russia harboring a treasonous president the way they harbor Snowden? Can you imagine what happens multinational oligarchs that shield them?

Of course the GOP has to lose in 2020. If that doesn't happen then [ASCII Izzy's Idunno emoticon]

[hepcat]

Trump has been scamming and lying his way through life since birth, and he's now president of the united states. I highly doubt he'll go to jail when (if) he's out out of office. He makes idiots laugh while he picks their pockets. That's enough for them.

[El Guapo]

There's also the option to not play into Trump's game, let Biden work his magic with blue collar America (which he's already doing), concentrate on the message that the Dems want to be the adults in the room, point out the problems that Trump has gotten himself into in the Middle East and with the tariffs, and get into a much better position for 2020.

Maybe I'm cynical or defeatist, but I fee like there's still real potential for additional long-term harm to occur between now and the presumptive election of a functioning adult. There are days I think all this sandbagging and political smoke-screening is being done in the hopes that Trump will get to name a third (!) Supreme Court Justice before 2020.

I understand things take time and everything needs to follow a process. However, I'm not left with the impression that "the system" is in any way following the process or will comply with orders to follow the process - which means those that are trying to do what's right or what is required are never going to get anywhere. I want to believe this will all end up with a positive outcome, but the damage that's been done so far is unthinkable. To believe it will continue indefinitely? It's insane.

Within a couple months I expect that we should have final court orders on the subpoena suits, requiring Trump / the Trump administration to comply with congressional subpoenas. I don't want to be too rosy-eyed optimistic on this, but the law is so on Congress's side on this that the D.C. Circuit should affirm the district court pretty readily and most likely the Supreme Court will deny cert. At that point Congress can require compliance with the subpoenas under threat of being held in judicial contempt, which I *expect* should cause the dam to break on a lot of this stuff. If they *still* don't comply (and people are in jail), then the pressure will amp up considerably - probably also raises the odds of impeachment significantly.

If the Supreme Court does wind up siding with the Trump administration on the subpoenas on some spurious political bullshit grounds....then we have a real five-alarm fire, both because of the impunity that would result and because of what it would say about SCOTUS disposition on the administration. I think this is super unlikely, but the consequences are significant enough to be concerning.

I suppose I worry most about the scenario where SCOTUS grants cert, stays the subpoenas, and then sits on its hands for 6+ months. I don't think that's likely either, but it's more likely than the complete disaster scenario.

[YellowKing]

I am hesitant on impeachment because the public doesn't care about open obstruction.

I think they care, but are content to wait until the vote to kick him out. Historically Americans have solved their problems through voting, and unless people are dying in the streets they'll just wait until next election.

Most of us on the board look at this from a long-term perspective. If we don't get him out, we're allowing precedent for future tyrants. We're saying the President is above the law. I think the average American is more short-sighted. "This guy sucks. Next time I'm voting for a new guy."

[hepcat]

I think that ship has sailed. He's already damaged the office far more than any other president in history.

[LordMortis]

I think they care, but are content to wait until the vote to kick him out. Historically Americans have solved their problems through voting, and unless people are dying in the streets they'll just wait until next election.

I think the sentiment is right but content seems the wrong word. I think desperate might be right for those of use consumed by social media and hopeful to those who aren't but yeah, we're generally [fill in the blank with a term that fits the person, insulated, civil, hopeful, cowardly, righteous, lazy whatever] enough to not want to do more than the civic duty of voting. If/when voting becomes meaningless then I dunno what's next.

[GreenGoo]

Barro nails it.

I don't understand. Is Barro suggesting no one has put forth an argument for impeachment?

[hepcat]

He's stating that it's essentially a pointless and meaningless endeavor at this point. It will have no real effect beyond making some people feel better about their actions, but it won't actually result in any real change. And it may even end up harming Dem chances in 2020 to boot.

[GreenGoo]

Trump has been scamming and lying his way through life since birth, and he's now president of the united states. I highly doubt he'll go to jail when (if) he's out out of office. He makes idiots laugh while he picks their pockets. That's enough for them.

It should be noted that no one in the US has put any money into drumpf for decades now. Some people still think he'll pay his bills, but that's because they believe people are honest, and that honest people, particularly rich honest people, pay their bills. This is demonstrably false, but when you don't know your client...

The point being the majority of Americans think he's the man he plays on tv. For the bankers, business men and others involved in dealing with the drumpf organization, they don't wear pants with pockets, so there's nothing to pick.

He couldn't scam American money any more, so he scammed American votes. It's certain that whether he goes to jail or not will depend on the kindness of strangers, not his grifty scamming abilities, which are weak and obvious to anyone paying attention. Luckily it won't be up to the voters.

[GreenGoo]

He's stating that it's essentially a pointless and meaningless endeavor at this point. It will have no real effect beyond making some people feel better about their actions, but it won't actually result in any real change. And it may even end up harming Dem chances in 2020 to boot.

That's...a lot to read into his tweet.

Or is this a thread I'm supposed to drill down? There is no indication there is more. It looks like just a tweet.

[hepcat]

Drill down. There's more than just what's posted above in this thread.

[GreenGoo]

Sure. Now what?

Was responding to your first edit.

No problem.

I got as far as impeachment is meant to remove, and won't in this case.

I'm not a big fan of "the system is broken and won't provide justice in this case, so why try?"

[hepcat]

And I'm not a fan of "the system is still salvageable, but let's irreparably break it before we have a chance to fix it" school of thought. I don't want Dems tilting at windmills, I want them working on a return to sanity.

And to get even more metaphorical: sometimes you have to choose your battles in order to win a war.

[LawBeefaroni]

You know what would really tear down the system and give us a scorched-earth type of fresh start? Trump in 2020.

[ImLawBoy]

Drain the swamp! Drain the swamp!

[hepcat]

I just purchased my collector's edition Swamp Cup off Trump.com for 29.99! I'm ready to join the cause!

[GreenGoo]

And I'm not a fan of "the system is still salvageable, but let's irreparably break it before we have a chance to fix it" school of thought.

Your opinion is valid, and lots of people share it.

I just think it's bunk. Compromise to win the next election is about as short sighted as it gets.

[hepcat]

Compromise is the cornerstone of democracy.

[GreenGoo]

Compromise is the cornerstone of democracy.

Yeah, that's not the context.

[Skinypupy]

Compromise is the cornerstone of democracy.

In a perfect world where norms still existed, sure.

In the current reality - where even the slightest bit of compromise is perceived as not only weakness but an abject failure - not so much.

[YellowKing]

I just don't like the "impeachment will do nothing" argument. How does he know? Everybody's assuming the outcome of the game before the players have even entered the field.

The reason Trump has gotten away with all the shit he has is because people just threw up their hands and said "Well that's just the way he is." And now you're asking the Democrats - the same ones that were elected to put a stop to Trump's power - to do the same.