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The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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El Guapo
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:41 am
Haven't read the decision yet but across the spectrum this was a shocking outcome except on the right.
Is it? This is what I was expecting (70%+) once the panel lineup was announced. The uncertainty is around the en banc part of the process; I assume that it will be reheard en banc, and I think there's a decent chance that the outcome changes, although I think there's a fair amount of uncertainty around that.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

People thought that Henderson sounded very skeptical of the government's position and some measure towards Sullivan. That she just went along with Rao is the surprise IMO. If Henderson wrote this I'd have a different opinion. This shows that even older, less ideological justices are on board with this bullshit. I find that aspect concerning.

This tells me a lot - essentially from other reporting Rao says this case isn't unusual. Really?!? Then Henderson who expressed at orals that this was very unusual ends up concurring with Rao's opinion that it isn't? WTF? (This is a at best incomplete hot take at the moment).

Edit2: Take it up a level


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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

On another front, the House Judiciary committee meeting today is beyond absurd. The Republicans are obstructing the hearing to the point where someone suggested Nadler throw Gohmert out. Which of course would mean he'll get on the news and yell about it so Nadler is just allowing it to happen. Gohmert is just banging on the table and the remarks from the Republicans are maintaining that there are no rules 'against making noise'. We're at full meltdown on the right. I don't know how much evidence we need that this country is a complete shit show mess but the Republicans won't even stop at banana republic bullshit. They are full have tilted into smash the system while we can mode.
Last edited by malchior on Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Found out that the DOJ whistleblower who is testifying about political interference in antitrust decisions is a former colleague from my old firm. Though we only overlapped very briefly.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:01 pm
Found out that the DOJ whistleblower who is testifying about political interference in antitrust decisions is a former colleague from my old firm. Though we only overlapped very briefly.
We'll see if he anyone can hear him over the absurdity. I'm so fed up with the GOP but I'm also fed up with a weak democratic leadership who can't seem to communicate that this is an issue.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:02 pm
El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:01 pm
Found out that the DOJ whistleblower who is testifying about political interference in antitrust decisions is a former colleague from my old firm. Though we only overlapped very briefly.
We'll see if he anyone can hear him over the absurdity. I'm so fed up with the GOP but I'm also fed up with a weak democratic leadership who can't seem to communicate that this is an issue.
I wish I trusted Nadler's judgment more. Schiff I trust at this point, Pelosi I trust in some areas but not in others, but it's hard to justify a lot of Nadler's decisions.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

The Republican line BTW is to yell Hillary/Steele Dossier/Obama and that Barr has restored integrity to the department. They are full on through the looking glass. They even dragged in former AG Mukasey in as their expert to back all this bullshit. Another older GOP luminary who has gone full Trumpist. We are in deep fucking trouble.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:43 am
malchior wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:41 am
Haven't read the decision yet but across the spectrum this was a shocking outcome except on the right.
Is it? This is what I was expecting (70%+) once the panel lineup was announced. The uncertainty is around the en banc part of the process; I assume that it will be reheard en banc, and I think there's a decent chance that the outcome changes, although I think there's a fair amount of uncertainty around that.
In the All The President's Lawyer podcast, this outcome was predicted. It was also predicted it would be reversed if heard en banc and that Sullivan would ultimately dismiss the charges as there really is no precedent for doing anything else. Also not dismissing them would seem to intrude deeply on prosecutorial discretion and put the judiciary in the role of judge and prosecutor.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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A takedown of the Flynn dismissal writ of mandamus decision. The upshot of the piece is that the decision was not only activist but didn't resemble the orals . They even pick out an argument where Henderson even contradicts *her own opinion* from 5 years ago. As noted above the decision will go en banc and almost certainly will follow the train on the Wilkins dissent.
stessier wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:39 pm
El Guapo wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:43 am
malchior wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:41 am
Haven't read the decision yet but across the spectrum this was a shocking outcome except on the right.
Is it? This is what I was expecting (70%+) once the panel lineup was announced. The uncertainty is around the en banc part of the process; I assume that it will be reheard en banc, and I think there's a decent chance that the outcome changes, although I think there's a fair amount of uncertainty around that.
In the All The President's Lawyer podcast, this outcome was predicted. It was also predicted it would be reversed if heard en banc and that Sullivan would ultimately dismiss the charges as there really is no precedent for doing anything else. Also not dismissing them would seem to intrude deeply on prosecutorial discretion and put the judiciary in the role of judge and prosecutor.
I think some people predicted it based on the ideological break down but did they predict how shamtastic it'd be? It raises some interesting issues though. If this follows that line, what is the court's role when the outcome flies so far in the face of rule of law? Say that my hands are tied? This is so unusual that I don't think that traditional analysis can survive. This feels like a moment where the system is being contorted and the outcome is uncertain.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:01 pm
If this follows that line, what is the court's role when the outcome flies so far in the face of rule of law?
What rule of law is being violated?

The court is doing what it can - it's having an investigation to show just how unusual the situation is. But they have to apply what the law is, not what they want it to be. After that, the answer is political. It has to be or there will be no rule of law - just a bunch of people deciding things willy nilly.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

stessier wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:12 pm
malchior wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:01 pm
If this follows that line, what is the court's role when the outcome flies so far in the face of rule of law?
What rule of law is being violated?

The court is doing what it can - it's having an investigation to show just how unusual the situation is. But they have to apply what the law is, not what they want it to be. After that, the answer is political. It has to be or there will be no rule of law - just a bunch of people deciding things willy nilly.
I think saying the solution is 'political' sort of 'moebius strips' the problem. In this instance, the political situation appears to be broken outside any norms. What I keep hearing from some legal scholars (Tribe, etc.) is that the judge has an inherent power here to not blindly accept a dismissal. I've even seen discussion that he can proceed to sentencing if he rules the dismissal isn't in the public interest. Maybe that's right but you seem to be accepting that the law is settled here. That seems illogical considering the new ground in potential political corruption vs. judicial power being walked here.

Especially when the appeals court ruling flies in the face of allowing him even to consider it. In what has been described by some as a very activist manner. If, Rao is right then this implies that the courts could be relegated to simply be a rubber stamp to prosecutor's attempts to pervert justice. I could see where you are coming from if the law literally provides the judge no review power. However, from what I've seen I highly doubt that is the case. In any case, this is damage to the rule of law because it undermines public faith that the system is impartial which is clear as day here and in the Stone case.
Last edited by malchior on Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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I'm kind of on edge because the business records / subpoena case decisions are likely to be handed down today or tomorrow.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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El Guapo wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:05 pm
I'm kind of on edge because the business records / subpoena case decisions are likely to be handed down today or tomorrow.
Same here. The 7-2 decision this morning wasn't that unexpected but Sotomayor's dissent is pretty blistering. She highlights that every branch of the government whether it is Congress and the Judicial branch seems to be giving up authority to the Executive in tiny bits and pieces. And its gotten to the point where we are facing the bleed out moment from our democracy. Not her words but I think she has a worry there. She has expressed concern in the past that SCOTUS consistently gives deference to the administrations emergency court filings. And the power's they seem to be signing off on are dangerous in anyone's hands, flies in the face of our Constitutional design, and are especially perilous with the GOP angling for permanent minority rule.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:09 pm
El Guapo wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:05 pm
I'm kind of on edge because the business records / subpoena case decisions are likely to be handed down today or tomorrow.
Same here. The 7-2 decision this morning wasn't that unexpected but Sotomayor's dissent is pretty blistering. She highlights that every branch of the government whether it is Congress and the Judicial branch seems to be giving up authority to the Executive in tiny bits and pieces. And its gotten to the point where we are facing the bleed out moment from our democracy. Not her words but I think she has a worry there. She has expressed concern in the past that SCOTUS consistently gives deference to the administrations emergency court filings. And the power's they seem to be signing off on are dangerous in anyone's hands, flies in the face of our Constitutional design, and are especially perilous with the GOP angling for permanent minority rule.
FWIW my current expectation is that the SCOTUS will say that the Trump administration's proposed standard for subpoenas for presidential records is crazy (which it is), but that some other new standard is appropriate, which will only be marginally different from current law, but which will be sufficient to kick it down to the lower courts again. After which Trump will lose, but only after Nov. 2020, which is the core of what Trump cares about.

They may let the NY AG subpoena go forward though, but we'll see.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Meanwhile Pelosi has pre-emptively ruled out impeaching Barr. I don't know why these folks are allergic to pressing their advantage.


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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:47 pm
Meanwhile Pelosi has pre-emptively ruled out impeaching Barr. I don't know why these folks are allergic to pressing their advantage.
I would 100% support impeaching Barr. That said, I don't see any reasonably compelling argument about why impeaching Barr (which obviously wouldn't result in his removal) would have a material impact on politics or polling. The same argument was made pre-impeachment of Trump (once you litigate this stuff and put it front and center, Trump's support will go significantly down!), and while impeaching Trump was 100% the correct thing to do, I don't see any material indications that it hurt Trump's polling at all.

I do wish they were moving towards impeaching Barr, I just don't see much reason to think it will matter one way or the other.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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El Guapo wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:46 pm
malchior wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:47 pm
Meanwhile Pelosi has pre-emptively ruled out impeaching Barr. I don't know why these folks are allergic to pressing their advantage.
I would 100% support impeaching Barr. That said, I don't see any reasonably compelling argument about why impeaching Barr (which obviously wouldn't result in his removal) would have a material impact on politics or polling.
I would strongly argue the reason for that is that the Democrats lack imagination and ability to communicate. An old argument but all too obvious. Biden is basically staying silent to let Trump hang himself. I've talked how I think this is risky. This is however from the same well. I hate to bang on the drum but tiny Lincoln Project is far more effective than most of the Democratic party. That's frankly embarassing. Impeaching Trump and Barr should 95% be focused on attacking marginal GOP Senators. That's the point. Impeach Barr. Make it obvious how guilty he is. Let the Republicans sham the trial. Hammer the fuck out of the Senators. I'm hoping we'll see a bit of it this season from Trump. They have an opportunity to pile more pressure on him and distract Barr. It is unimaginable that if the roles would be reversed that the Republicans wouldn't have spun a lot of value of out this. The Democrats barely can carry a headline as Barr rampages through justice.
The same argument was made pre-impeachment of Trump (once you litigate this stuff and put it front and center, Trump's support will go significantly down!), and while impeaching Trump was 100% the correct thing to do, I don't see any material indications that it hurt Trump's polling at all.

I do wish they were moving towards impeaching Barr, I just don't see much reason to think it will matter one way or the other.
Right. And I argue that the Pelosi might be great at managing the caucus but she is horrible at the national politics side of things. Why she is taking it off the table when he is just starting his antics just doesn't make sense to me. Obviously they can change their mind but she is playing cards she could be holding. It speaks to a lack of vision IMO. She should be banging the drum about criminal behavior and what we get is weak-ass Nadler holding sad committee hearings that get no traction and he lets the Republicans walk all over him. I just don't get why they are so passive.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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NY Times
Shortly after he became attorney general last year, William P. Barr set out to challenge a signature criminal case that touched President Trump’s inner circle directly, and even the president’s own actions: the prosecution of Michael D. Cohen, Mr. Trump’s longtime fixer.

The debate between Mr. Barr and the federal prosecutors who brought the case against Mr. Cohen was one of the first signs of a tense relationship that culminated last weekend in the abrupt ouster of Geoffrey S. Berman, the United States attorney in Manhattan. It also foreshadowed Mr. Barr’s intervention in the prosecutions of other associates of Mr. Trump.

By the time Mr. Barr was sworn into office in February, Mr. Cohen, who had paid hush money to an adult film star who said she had an affair with Mr. Trump, had already pleaded guilty and was set to begin a three-year prison sentence, all of which embarrassed and angered the president.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Parked for future reference


President Trump has re-tweeted a post this morning that says, “it’s time to pardon Roger Stone:”

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Once again a Trump associate is too incompetent to get away with the obvious ruse.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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When Bobby Valentine has a better strategy for being where he's not supposed to be...

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:47 pm
I don't know why these folks are allergic to pressing their advantage.
I think, in a polar opposite to Trump's base, coming across as too aggressive may scare off their voters.

I sure as hell wish at least one Democrat with some pull would put up a good fight, though.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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El Guapo wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:49 pm


Once again a Trump associate is too incompetent to get away with the obvious ruse.
Ken's take on the photo during his All The President's Lawyers podcast was amusing.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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To be fair, these days *anybody* found in a restaurant outside of their residence should probably be arrested.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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I wanna cry foul on that picture. For a heartbeat there, I saw the headline "Barr's Removal" it looked like Barr was being led out in cuffs with his hands behind his back. He looks hunched and defeated; he just needs the cuffs.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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I don’t think that’s even possible.
For the DOJ to be led out in cuffs.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Unagi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:07 am
I don’t think that’s even possible.
For the DOJ to be led out in cuffs.
He is the AG not the DOJ. The entire DOJ is not corrupt. Maybe most of it but not the whole thing.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Paingod wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:05 am
I wanna cry foul on that picture. For a heartbeat there, I saw the headline "Barr's Removal" it looked like Barr was being led out in cuffs with his hands behind his back. He looks hunched and defeated; he just needs the cuffs.
That was the best part.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Remus West wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:51 am
Unagi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:07 am
I don’t think that’s even possible.
For the DOJ to be led out in cuffs.
He is the AG not the DOJ. The entire DOJ is not corrupt. Maybe most of it but not the whole thing.
It's definitely not most of it. It's almost certainly just the political leadership. We have seen many of the career people taking principled positions like withdrawing from cases where Barr has improperly overridden frameworks; Stone/Flynn being the flag ship examples. At least from what we can see via the publicly discussed cases, the career people who saw interference withdrew and then filed their complaints through the proper channels.

That is rule of law in action and Barr/Trump and their flunkies are the ones beating at the walls of that system trying to corrupt it. Maybe there is some kernel of corruption underneath we aren't seeing it but there isn't a whole lot of evidence of that. That said, I won't be surprised to find out Barr committed crimes for the President mostly in the form of covering up crimes. We won't even be able to assess that until we take a hose to the political leadership and enable the career people with an opportunity to speak out freely. Until then I don't think we'll truly know how bad the damage is.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:05 am
Remus West wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:51 am
Unagi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:07 am
I don’t think that’s even possible.
For the DOJ to be led out in cuffs.
He is the AG not the DOJ. The entire DOJ is not corrupt. Maybe most of it but not the whole thing.
It's definitely not most of it. It's almost certainly just the political leadership. We have seen many of the career people taking principled positions like withdrawing from cases where Barr has improperly overridden frameworks; Stone/Flynn being the flag ship examples. At least from what we can see via the publicly discussed cases, the career people who saw interference withdrew and then filed their complaints through the proper channels.

That is rule of law in action and Barr/Trump and their flunkies are the ones beating at the walls of that system trying to corrupt it. Maybe there is some kernel of corruption underneath we aren't seeing it but there isn't a whole lot of evidence of that. That said, I won't be surprised to find out Barr committed crimes for the President mostly in the form of covering up crimes. We won't even be able to assess that until we take a hose to the political leadership and enable the career people with an opportunity to speak out freely. Until then I don't think we'll truly know how bad the damage is.
It's another case where we'll be fine if Trump loses in November, and fucked if he doesn't. If Trump loses, then Biden's going to replace the DOJ political leadership (as normally happens between administrations), and the staff should be fine and more or less return to normal. If Trump gets a second term, Trump's political flunkies are going to do more of the hiring, more good faith people at the staff level will leave, and the rot will spread deeper into DOJ.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Holman wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:30 pm
To be fair, these days *anybody* found in a restaurant outside of their residence should probably be arrested.
Cohen was put back in jail because he refused to cooperate:
Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump's former personal attorney, was sent back to prison Thursday after refusing to sign a home confinement agreement barring him from publishing a book or speaking to the media, according to law enforcement officials and Cohen's attorneys.

U.S. marshals took Cohen into custody after he arrived at a New York federal courthouse Thursday morning to sign home confinement documents, said his lawyer Jeffrey Levine.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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More Friday night crimin'. Trump just commuted Stone.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Fucking criminal.

Every Republican should be asked to justify this.

If you're curious about how nauseous you should be, here's the statement:

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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You know how you can tell Trump is worthless trash goblin? He commutes a criminal like Stone who intimidated witnesses and retaliated against Vindman who told the truth. Trump is a stain on all of us. There is not a doubt that we face an existential crisis that can be resolved by running him out of Washington ASAP.


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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:09 pm
Trump is a stain on all of us. There is not a doubt that we face an existential crisis that can be resolved by running him out of Washington ASAP.
I've reached the point where I think the only resolution is a new constitution. Our current one grants way too much power in the Senate to unpopulated states.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by malchior »

Exodor wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:38 pm
malchior wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:09 pm
Trump is a stain on all of us. There is not a doubt that we face an existential crisis that can be resolved by running him out of Washington ASAP.
I've reached the point where I think the only resolution is a new constitution. Our current one grants way too much power in the Senate to unpopulated states.
Yeah - long term we'll still be in trouble but its clear that this is the most lawless President we've had by leaps and bounds. This form of government simply won't survive another 4 years of him.
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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malchior wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:40 pm
Exodor wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:38 pm
I've reached the point where I think the only resolution is a new constitution. Our current one grants way too much power in the Senate to unpopulated states.
Yeah - long term we'll still be in trouble but its clear that this is the most lawless President we've had by leaps and bounds. This form of government simply won't survive another 4 years of him.
Our only saving grace is Trump is such an ineffective buffon. My worry is in the future we may see a competent leader with the criminality of Trump and a Republican Senate that makes them unimpeachable.

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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

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Exodor wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:43 pm
malchior wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:40 pm
Exodor wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:38 pm
I've reached the point where I think the only resolution is a new constitution. Our current one grants way too much power in the Senate to unpopulated states.
Yeah - long term we'll still be in trouble but its clear that this is the most lawless President we've had by leaps and bounds. This form of government simply won't survive another 4 years of him.
Our only saving grace is Trump is such an ineffective buffon. My worry is in the future we may see a competent leader with the criminality of Trump and a Republican Senate that makes them unimpeachable.
Dondolph Trumpler.

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Smoove_B
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Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
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Re: The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

I mean, I guess if you want to make sure no one is going to keep talking about how you ignored the Russian bounties placed on American soldiers, commuting the sentence of someone that did crime for you is a good way to do that.

In the history of a ~4 month run-up to an election, has any President ever done anything so insane? I am hoping these are all signs he knows he's done.

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