Trump's Full Court Press on Tax Reform

[Scoop20906]

I don’t think the Individual Mandate is a popular law. Most people do not like being forced to do anything and the republicans we good at selling it like that instead of a needed tax.


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[Chaz]

It may not be popular, but it's necessary. What the Dems haven't done a great job of is convincing the public that removing the mandate will result in higher premiums across the board. The problem with that, and the whole tax bill, is that the effects of changes made now won't happen for a year or more, and are indirect links. People will see the immediate effect of the short-term tax cuts and maybe no longer being required to buy health insurance right away. Then, down the line, the tax cuts on individuals start to go away, and maybe they decide they want health insurance now, but the premiums have gone up.

Then, the GOP messaging gets to be "see, those sneaky Dems raised your taxes!" and "Look, we've been telling you how Obamacare premiums have been skyrocketing. See, all these higher premiums are Obamacare's fault! Let's repeal the whole thing!" The Dems will then have to convince people that the cause of both those things is this technical tax mess that just got passed, and that's gonna be a tough sell. The Dems deal more in nuance, and the GOP deals in lies and clear messaging.

[Zaxxon]

It may not be popular, but it's necessary. What the Dems haven't done a great job of is convincing the public that removing the mandate will result in higher premiums across the board. The problem with that, and the whole tax bill, is that the effects of changes made now won't happen for a year or more, and are indirect links. People will see the immediate effect of the short-term tax cuts and maybe no longer being required to buy health insurance right away. Then, down the line, the tax cuts on individuals start to go away, and maybe they decide they want health insurance now, but the premiums have gone up.

Then, the GOP messaging gets to be "see, those sneaky Dems raised your taxes!" and "Look, we've been telling you how Obamacare premiums have been skyrocketing. See, all these higher premiums are Obamacare's fault! Let's repeal the whole thing!" The Dems will then have to convince people that the cause of both those things is this technical tax mess that just got passed, and that's gonna be a tough sell. The Dems deal more in nuance, and the GOP deals in lies and clear messaging.

I agree with your entire post, apart from the piece where you apparently believe that the Dems could feasibly have convinced the R base that sane fiscal/healthcare policy is necessary.

[Octavious]

God I hope one day I see someone just punch that f'n asshole in the face. What a piece of shit that we have to deal with for at least 3 more years. I hate this country so much right now.

[Smoove_B]

So Mr. Speaker, why is it that we're doing all this? Deficits?

House Speaker Paul Ryan is acknowledging "nobody knows" if the sweeping tax cuts Congress is enacting will produce enough economic growth to fend off soaring federal deficits

EDIT: F-these auto-embedding twitter tags. Find it yourselves via the AP.

Unrepentant a-hole.

[milo]

Even that lame statement is a lie. Literally no one thinks that these tax cuts will "fend off soaring federal deficits." This tax bill is expected to increase the deficit. It is built in to all of the projections used to decide what to cut and by how much. In fact, they had to carefully limit the expected increase in deficits to no more than 1.49999 trillion dollars over the next ten years in order to pass the bill at all. And those projections are already factoring in an expected increase in economic activity that might not even happen.

Zombie-eyed granny-starver, indeed.

[geezer]

God help me for even slightly defending this raging crap fest of a bill, but I do actually know a bunch of people that fit that profile, give or take.

I have no doubt that it happens, but it’s not particularly common for a couple earning $30k each to also own multiple businesses. As was noted by the many twitter responses skewering Cornyn, what he most likely did was take how rich people make their money, and then just reduce the numbers by 90% to get down to regular people numbers.

Nevermind that the majority of the population is pulling in significantly less than $100k, with almost none of it coming from the multiple businesses that they don’t own.

Yep, I hear you. I think it's a tragic bill, passed for incredibly stupid reasons. It helps people that don't need help, and the mechanisms by which this is supposed to help everyone else are nonsense, but I do think there are a fair number of small business owners out there that will se some benefits.

The models that I see aren't two wage-earners at 30k each plus a few businesses on the side, but rather one primary wage earner and a spouse with a small lifestyle business, a couple that each own small businesses, or one part of a dual wage-earning couple with a side gig that earns a few 10K a year or so. As Goo said, my perspective is obviously skewed by my own circle of peers, and I absolutely understand that. And I would vote "no" on the bill, just to be clear.

[GreenGoo]

And to also be clear, I in no way meant to vilify anyone in the situation outlined in the tweet, and certainly not people who run their own business such as yourself, geezer. If people benefit from the bill, that doesn't make them bad people, in case anyone was inferring that from what I wrote.

[Pyperkub]

God I hope one day I see someone just punch that f'n asshole in the face. What a piece of shit that we have to deal with for at least 3 more years. I hate this country so much right now.

Ryan is more to blame for this debacle of a tax bill than Trump. Rumors are that he will retire rather than lose next year. Pie or Punch to the face would be nice however.

[RunningMn9]

The models that I see aren't two wage-earners at 30k each plus a few businesses on the side

I was responding directly to what the Senator put out there.

[El Guapo]

God I hope one day I see someone just punch that f'n asshole in the face. What a piece of shit that we have to deal with for at least 3 more years. I hate this country so much right now.

Ryan is more to blame for this debacle of a tax bill than Trump. Rumors are that he will retire rather than lose next year. Pie or Punch to the face would be nice however.

I haven't seen any polls suggesting that Ryan is in electoral danger (though I'm not sure that many have been done, and given the generic ballot I suppose it's at least *conceivable*).

At the same time, I wonder what the impact would be if Ryan didn't run for reelection. Given the political situation we're already seeing a lot of GOP retirements - I suspect something like Ryan not running could trigger a run to the exits.

[LordMortis]

What comes to mind is that Ryan is about to have everything he promised delivered and doesn't want to be around for the aftermath. So either he's happy with the outcome and getting out while the getting is good or he always wanted to be the party of no and collect his checks, never actually wanting to set policy. Either way, he won't be around to kick when his dream comes to fruition at collection time.

He's surely not part of the more reasonable GOP chased out who tried to keep a more perfect union together.

[El Guapo]

Oh, I wouldn't miss Paul Ryan even a little bit. A more Trumpian speaker would probably be a good thing, really, since Paul Ryan is very pro-Trump in practice yet has an ability to hypnotize reporters into thinking that he's not (and that he's some sort of policy 'wonk').

[Octavious]

I bet he has a shrine to Alex P Keaton somewhere in his house. I almost hate him as much as Trump, but that's really impossible to top.

[El Guapo]

I bet he has a shrine to Alex P Keaton somewhere in his house. I almost hate him as much as Trump, but that's really impossible to top.

Nah, I doubt he has room for that given his massive shrine to Ayn Rand.

[geezer]

And to also be clear, I in no way meant to vilify anyone in the situation outlined in the tweet, and certainly not people who run their own business such as yourself, geezer. If people benefit from the bill, that doesn't make them bad people, in case anyone was inferring that from what I wrote.

Didn't see it that way at all. Carry on

[geezer]

The models that I see aren't two wage-earners at 30k each plus a few businesses on the side

I was responding directly to what the Senator put out there.

Well, I mean, even when he's sort of right he's still wrong. Shocking, right? At least you're not represented by that tool like I am :/

[Zarathud]

Signing before 12/31 triggers backdoor cuts to Medicare and other government programs via the PAYGO rules during 2018.

Mission Accomplished for Ryan.

[Paingod]

Such high energy, we're so excited to have Susan join us in MAGA!

My wife and I tried, man. We've both called her office in opposition to this. Probably along with 97% of everyone else who's called.

[LawBeefaroni]

God help me for even slightly defending this raging crap fest of a bill, but I do actually know a bunch of people that fit that profile, give or take.

I have no doubt that it happens, but it’s not particularly common for a couple earning $30k each to also own multiple businesses. As was noted by the many twitter responses skewering Cornyn, what he most likely did was take how rich people make their money, and then just reduce the numbers by 90% to get down to regular people numbers.

Nevermind that the majority of the population is pulling in significantly less than $100k, with almost none of it coming from the multiple businesses that they don’t own.

Yep, I hear you. I think it's a tragic bill, passed for incredibly stupid reasons. It helps people that don't need help, and the mechanisms by which this is supposed to help everyone else are nonsense, but I do think there are a fair number of small business owners out there that will se some benefits.

The models that I see aren't two wage-earners at 30k each plus a few businesses on the side, but rather one primary wage earner and a spouse with a small lifestyle business, a couple that each own small businesses, or one part of a dual wage-earning couple with a side gig that earns a few 10K a year or so. As Goo said, my perspective is obviously skewed by my own circle of peers, and I absolutely understand that. And I would vote "no" on the bill, just to be clear.

Those people probably aren't buying hi-rise condos in Dubai or vineyards in Italy. So any inadvertent benefit they'll see will be wiped out when they are unable to flee the resulting debt-caused collapse.

[El Guapo]

Such high energy, we're so excited to have Susan join us in MAGA!

My wife and I tried, man. We've both called her office in opposition to this. Probably along with 97% of everyone else who's called.

I don't know WTF she was thinking voting for this. My guess is that she's a dupe and really thinks it's a good idea.

[LordMortis]

Those people probably aren't buying hi-rise condos in Dubai or vineyards in Italy. So any inadvertent benefit they'll see will be wiped out when they are unable to flee the resulting debt-caused collapse.

That's my thunk. Though I also wonder what happens after the collapse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGUSRGYz7_g

"Their payment is the honor they'll feel to serve their... Wait. Whose paying me to yell at this guy?"

[LawBeefaroni]

Those people probably aren't buying hi-rise condos in Dubai or vineyards in Italy. So any inadvertent benefit they'll see will be wiped out when they are unable to flee the resulting debt-caused collapse.

That's my thunk. Though I also wonder what happens after the collapse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGUSRGYz7_g

"Their payment is the honor they'll feel to serve their... Wait. Whose paying me to yell at this guy?"

It won't be all awesome apocalypse mad Max shit. It will be sad, plodding great depression shit.

Forget bunkers full of guns and ammo, real preppers are buying international real estate and off shoring their other assets.

[Vorret]

Move to Norway they have plenty of cash there.

[Kraken]

God help me for even slightly defending this raging crap fest of a bill, but I do actually know a bunch of people that fit that profile, give or take.

I have no doubt that it happens, but it’s not particularly common for a couple earning $30k each to also own multiple businesses. As was noted by the many twitter responses skewering Cornyn, what he most likely did was take how rich people make their money, and then just reduce the numbers by 90% to get down to regular people numbers.

Nevermind that the majority of the population is pulling in significantly less than $100k, with almost none of it coming from the multiple businesses that they don’t own.

Yep, I hear you. I think it's a tragic bill, passed for incredibly stupid reasons. It helps people that don't need help, and the mechanisms by which this is supposed to help everyone else are nonsense, but I do think there are a fair number of small business owners out there that will se some benefits.

The models that I see aren't two wage-earners at 30k each plus a few businesses on the side, but rather one primary wage earner and a spouse with a small lifestyle business, a couple that each own small businesses, or one part of a dual wage-earning couple with a side gig that earns a few 10K a year or so. As Goo said, my perspective is obviously skewed by my own circle of peers, and I absolutely understand that. And I would vote "no" on the bill, just to be clear.

Wife is our breadwinner; I own one corporation and run two marginal businesses. That said, the minuscule benefit that we will see to my K-1 income (which delivered sweet, sweet losses for the past three years, but turns positive in '17...I digress) doesn't come close to losing our home office and HELOC deductions, unless I can figure out a way to funnel her W-2 teaching income through Kraken Enterprises.

[Isgrimnur]

Bunch of petro-socialists...

[Vorret]

God help me for even slightly defending this raging crap fest of a bill, but I do actually know a bunch of people that fit that profile, give or take.

I have no doubt that it happens, but it’s not particularly common for a couple earning $30k each to also own multiple businesses. As was noted by the many twitter responses skewering Cornyn, what he most likely did was take how rich people make their money, and then just reduce the numbers by 90% to get down to regular people numbers.

Nevermind that the majority of the population is pulling in significantly less than $100k, with almost none of it coming from the multiple businesses that they don’t own.

Yep, I hear you. I think it's a tragic bill, passed for incredibly stupid reasons. It helps people that don't need help, and the mechanisms by which this is supposed to help everyone else are nonsense, but I do think there are a fair number of small business owners out there that will se some benefits.

The models that I see aren't two wage-earners at 30k each plus a few businesses on the side, but rather one primary wage earner and a spouse with a small lifestyle business, a couple that each own small businesses, or one part of a dual wage-earning couple with a side gig that earns a few 10K a year or so. As Goo said, my perspective is obviously skewed by my own circle of peers, and I absolutely understand that. And I would vote "no" on the bill, just to be clear.

Wife is our breadwinner; I own one corporation and run two marginal businesses. That said, the minuscule benefit that we will see to my K-1 income (which delivered sweet, sweet losses for the past three years, but turns positive in '17...I digress) doesn't come close to losing our home office and HELOC deductions, unless I can figure out a way to funnel her W-2 teaching income through Kraken Enterprises.

a 3rd business called Kraken Private Teaching Association?

[malchior]

At least we can put the Collins hagiography on hold now after the ACA vote. She was outed as an unprincipled fraud after all. I can't quite figure out if it was a blunder or not. There certainly appears to have been no reasonable gamble there.

And at least Bob Corker got a big win by extracting a huge windfall for his own finances. I'd give him props for the flat out daylight raid on the treasury but he pretended to be outraged by it first.

[Kraken]

God help me for even slightly defending this raging crap fest of a bill, but I do actually know a bunch of people that fit that profile, give or take.

I have no doubt that it happens, but it’s not particularly common for a couple earning $30k each to also own multiple businesses. As was noted by the many twitter responses skewering Cornyn, what he most likely did was take how rich people make their money, and then just reduce the numbers by 90% to get down to regular people numbers.

Nevermind that the majority of the population is pulling in significantly less than $100k, with almost none of it coming from the multiple businesses that they don’t own.

Yep, I hear you. I think it's a tragic bill, passed for incredibly stupid reasons. It helps people that don't need help, and the mechanisms by which this is supposed to help everyone else are nonsense, but I do think there are a fair number of small business owners out there that will se some benefits.

The models that I see aren't two wage-earners at 30k each plus a few businesses on the side, but rather one primary wage earner and a spouse with a small lifestyle business, a couple that each own small businesses, or one part of a dual wage-earning couple with a side gig that earns a few 10K a year or so. As Goo said, my perspective is obviously skewed by my own circle of peers, and I absolutely understand that. And I would vote "no" on the bill, just to be clear.

Wife is our breadwinner; I own one corporation and run two marginal businesses. That said, the minuscule benefit that we will see to my K-1 income (which delivered sweet, sweet losses for the past three years, but turns positive in '17...I digress) doesn't come close to losing our home office and HELOC deductions, unless I can figure out a way to funnel her W-2 teaching income through Kraken Enterprises.

a 3rd business called Kraken Private Teaching Association?

It would fit under Blue Hills Editorial Services, since she teaches communications -- many of the same skills we practice. Trick would be getting the universities to pay Kraken/Blue Hills instead of her. Not bloody likely since she's already on their payrolls as a W-2 employee. Blue Hills was set up to deal with 1099 income.

If there was a way to finagle that, though, I think we'd come out ahead under the new tax regime.

[Rip]

AT&T is trickling down already.

Hey, ImLawBoy you going to spend that $1K on me as a thanks for voting for Trump?

[Zarathud]

Republicans got scared now the built-in budget cuts under PAYGO are public. Trump is now signing on January 3 so the hit doesn't happen until after the 2018 elections.

Craven asshats know it's not going to play well on Main Street, but they need time to plunder the Treasury.

[Chaz]

AT&T is trickling down already.

Hey, ImLawBoy you going to spend that $1K on me as a thanks for voting for Trump?

I'm sure you know this already, but for those that don't, the union negotiated the bonus already, but now AT&T is claiming they're awarding it because of the tax bill. They're not. The union did it.

[Enough]

AT&T is trickling down already.

Hey, ImLawBoy you going to spend that $1K on me as a thanks for voting for Trump?

I'm sure you know this already, but for those that don't, the union negotiated the bonus already, but now AT&T is claiming they're awarding it because of the tax bill. They're not. The union did it.

I would guess the Daily Caller didn't include that nugget.

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[Rip]

Mind your business.

[Scoop20906]

Did I hear Trump bragging about PAYGO?


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[hitbyambulance]

God I hope one day I see someone just punch that f'n asshole in the face. What a piece of shit that we have to deal with for at least 3 more years. I hate this country so much right now.

Ryan is more to blame for this debacle of a tax bill than Trump. Rumors are that he will retire rather than lose next year. Pie or Punch to the face would be nice however.

hatchet to the skull would be even better

[Holman]

Just saw a reference to Trump bragging in his cabinet meeting that he specifically told people to stay quiet about the Mandate repeal. In other words, he's openly claiming that the goal was to end Obamacare without us knowing until it was too late.

I'm sure he sees this as yet another clever victory for the world's sharpest deal-maker. He really pulled off a big win against those incredible suckers, the American people.

[LordMortis]

I'm beginning to see unapologetically conservative pulpit screamers talk negatively about The Reform. This might be the straw. I guess it's becoming more clear why Ryan will opt not to run again. Trump's failure to shed "the hedge fund manager loophole" in particular seems to have some of his otherwise blindly loyal partisans raising their dander or shackles or eyebrows whatever it is that get raised in the shock before fight or flight kicks in.

No wonder they're already trying to find ways to scapegoat democrats when they control all aspects of government via gerrymandering. It all comes down comparing personal pocket books.

[ImLawBoy]

AT&T is trickling down already.

Hey, ImLawBoy you going to spend that $1K on me as a thanks for voting for Trump?

I'm sure you know this already, but for those that don't, the union negotiated the bonus already, but now AT&T is claiming they're awarding it because of the tax bill. They're not. The union did it.

That's not accurate (at least, not fully accurate). The union may have negotiated some for of bonus for union employees, but many (most?) of the employees receiving this bonus will not be union employees. The union can't claim credit for that. As for me, it doesn't trickle up to my level, so I don't get the bonus - it goes to union employees, non-management, 1st and 2nd level managers. Third level and up don't get the bonus.

That said, given the capital that AT&T and most large corporations are sitting on, I'm guessing we had the money to do this even without the tax cut.

[Smoove_B]

That said, given the capital that AT&T and most large corporations are sitting on, I'm guessing we had the money to do this even without the tax cut.

It's also a bit strange to see everyone using the $1000 example of how the tax reform is already (somehow magically) working, however no one really seems to be talking about the 4600 layoffs that are scheduled. Weird, right?