The Pence presidency thread

[Kraken]

You know we're going to need one, so let's start with this long New Yorker piece.

The tl;dr version is that Pence is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Koch brothers who is going to make us miss Trump's bumbling randomness.

We are so hosed.

[El Guapo]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

[Pyperkub]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

Not necessarily. If they flip Manafort and he has proof of hanky Panky, the house and Senate gop will turn on him really quickly.

[El Guapo]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

Not necessarily. If they flip Manafort and he has proof of hanky Panky, the house and Senate gop will turn on him really quickly.

You, sir, have a far higher opinion of the House GOP than I do.

[Kraken]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

Not necessarily. If they flip Manafort and he has proof of hanky Panky, the house and Senate gop will turn on him really quickly.

You, sir, have a far higher opinion of the House GOP than I do.

It will become a matter of self-preservation. There is no love lost between Trump and the GOP.

But if you read the article, you might find yourself hoping for Trump's survival. It can get worse.

[Pyperkub]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

Not necessarily. If they flip Manafort and he has proof of hanky Panky, the house and Senate gop will turn on him really quickly.

You, sir, have a far higher opinion of the House GOP than I do.

It will become a matter of self-preservation. There is no love lost between Trump and the GOP.

But if you read the article, you might find yourself hoping for Trump's survival. It can get worse.

Yup. The house gop are actually more likely to get along with Pence than Trump, as long as the base goes along, which is why it will take proof from a Trump associate to give them that cover. I'm not giving them credit for being anything but cowards.

[YellowKing]

You guys are overlooking the most likely scenario - as soon as Mueller turns up the heat, Trump resigns.

In fact, I think the chances of Trump resigning are far higher than him ever getting impeached. There's no way Trump's going to not go out on his own terms.

[Holman]

You guys are overlooking the most likely scenario - as soon as Mueller turns up the heat, Trump resigns.

In fact, I think the chances of Trump resigning are far higher than him ever getting impeached. There's no way Trump's going to not go out on his own terms.

But (IANAMFL) isn't remaining in office thought to be his only defense against indictment?

Leaving office also eliminates his pardon power, giving everyone else hyperincentive to be the first squealer.

[Zarathud]

I have zero doubts that President Pence would pardon ex-President Trump.

[hepcat]

I think a POTUS in his 70s who still enjoys KFC on a regular basis will find himself removed by the grim reaper before Mueller.

[gilraen]

I think a POTUS in his 70s who still enjoys KFC on a regular basis will find himself removed by the grim reaper before Mueller.

There's hoping.

[Combustible Lemur]

I have zero doubts that President Pence would pardon ex-President Trump.

There seems to be quite a bit of evidence that Pence also committed obstruction. I'm sure President Ryan would Pardon ex President Pence.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Scoop20906]

I have zero doubts that President Pence would pardon ex-President Trump.

Pence will be painted as a hero and Donny as a martyr.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[El Guapo]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

Not necessarily. If they flip Manafort and he has proof of hanky Panky, the house and Senate gop will turn on him really quickly.

You, sir, have a far higher opinion of the House GOP than I do.

It will become a matter of self-preservation. There is no love lost between Trump and the GOP.

But if you read the article, you might find yourself hoping for Trump's survival. It can get worse.

Trump's approval rating among Republicans is somewhere around 80%. Even if it's in the Republican Party's self-interest, you're expecting to get a majority of GOP representatives with heavily gerrymandered districts to vote to impeach a President that's very popular among their constituents?

[malchior]

Exactly it isn't a coincidence that the few outspoken critics of Trump in the GOP are generally ones not running for re-election or are dying.

[noxiousdog]

Trump's approval rating among Republicans is somewhere around 80%. Even if it's in the Republican Party's self-interest, you're expecting to get a majority of GOP representatives with heavily gerrymandered districts to vote to impeach a President that's very popular among their constituents?

My parents have stopped even giving him lukewarm approval. It was the first time they didn't defend him at all.

[Kraken]

You guys are overlooking the most likely scenario - as soon as Mueller turns up the heat, Trump resigns.

In fact, I think the chances of Trump resigning are far higher than him ever getting impeached. There's no way Trump's going to not go out on his own terms.

Agreed, and let's not forget the 25th Amendment palace coup scenario. It seems like a long shot, but everything about Trump is a long shot. One unambiguous instance of insanity -- like, say, having to overrule an impulsive nuclear strike (or, even worse, being unable to) -- could change those odds overnight.

[El Guapo]

Trump's approval rating among Republicans is somewhere around 80%. Even if it's in the Republican Party's self-interest, you're expecting to get a majority of GOP representatives with heavily gerrymandered districts to vote to impeach a President that's very popular among their constituents?

My parents have stopped even giving him lukewarm approval. It was the first time they didn't defend him at all.

Trump is slowly bleeding support, even on the Republican side (there are indications like how his "strongly approve" numbers are steadily declining, even among Republicans), and given enough time if things don't change I imagine we'll start to see whether there's a real floor to Trump's support among Republicans or not. But part of my feeling that Trump's not going down without democrats in control of at least one branch of Congress is that I really doubt that his support will decline enough among Republicans to support an impeachment vote before the 2018 congressional elections.

Of course, there are wild cards like, what happens to Trump's approval rating among Republicans if Mueller indicts Trump Jr., Kushner, et al., or names Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator, or outright indicts Trump himself? There are also wild cards like - is there any point at which Fox News turns on Trump? Is there any point at which McCain, Corker, Collins, etc. go to war with Trump more actively, and (say) let loose a barrel of subpoenas and the like?

[El Guapo]

You guys are overlooking the most likely scenario - as soon as Mueller turns up the heat, Trump resigns.

In fact, I think the chances of Trump resigning are far higher than him ever getting impeached. There's no way Trump's going to not go out on his own terms.

But (IANAMFL) isn't remaining in office thought to be his only defense against indictment?

Leaving office also eliminates his pardon power, giving everyone else hyperincentive to be the first squealer.

Yeah, I doubt that Trump will leave office unless and until it's clear that there are enough votes to impeach and convict. Both because it's part of who he is (he has to win and be dominant), and because being President is his best defense against himself and his family going to jail.

Pence would very likely pardon him as well, but he's still better off having the power to do it himself rather than having to count on Pence, whom he won't be able to control after he leaves office.

[Moliere]

You know we're going to need one,

I agree.

[El Guapo]

You know we're going to need one,

I agree.

Personally, I like threads that don't die.

[Kraken]

You guys are overlooking the most likely scenario - as soon as Mueller turns up the heat, Trump resigns.

In fact, I think the chances of Trump resigning are far higher than him ever getting impeached. There's no way Trump's going to not go out on his own terms.

But (IANAMFL) isn't remaining in office thought to be his only defense against indictment?

Leaving office also eliminates his pardon power, giving everyone else hyperincentive to be the first squealer.

Yeah, I doubt that Trump will leave office unless and until it's clear that there are enough votes to impeach and convict. Both because it's part of who he is (he has to win and be dominant), and because being President is his best defense against himself and his family going to jail.

Pence would very likely pardon him as well, but he's still better off having the power to do it himself rather than having to count on Pence, whom he won't be able to control after he leaves office.

Trump's fate depends on the outcome of the Koch tax cut. They have reached a shaky detente since Trump abandoned his campaign populism and got on board with the Koch agenda. But Trump is still Trump: mercurial, incompetent, petty, vindictive. If he sinks the Koch plan deliberately or through incompetence, Pence & co. will force him to resign or face the 25th. The Kochs don't own Trump directly, but they do own most of the people around him (especially Pence), and they bought this government specifically to deliver this tax cut. If Trump screws it up, he's outta there.

[El Guapo]

You guys are overlooking the most likely scenario - as soon as Mueller turns up the heat, Trump resigns.

In fact, I think the chances of Trump resigning are far higher than him ever getting impeached. There's no way Trump's going to not go out on his own terms.

But (IANAMFL) isn't remaining in office thought to be his only defense against indictment?

Leaving office also eliminates his pardon power, giving everyone else hyperincentive to be the first squealer.

Yeah, I doubt that Trump will leave office unless and until it's clear that there are enough votes to impeach and convict. Both because it's part of who he is (he has to win and be dominant), and because being President is his best defense against himself and his family going to jail.

Pence would very likely pardon him as well, but he's still better off having the power to do it himself rather than having to count on Pence, whom he won't be able to control after he leaves office.

Trump's fate depends on the outcome of the Koch tax cut. They have reached a shaky detente since Trump abandoned his campaign populism and got on board with the Koch agenda. But Trump is still Trump: mercurial, incompetent, petty, vindictive. If he sinks the Koch plan deliberately or through incompetence, Pence & co. will force him to resign or face the 25th. The Kochs don't own Trump directly, but they do own most of the people around him (especially Pence), and they bought this government specifically to deliver this tax cut. If Trump screws it up, he's outta there.

Doesn't it make more sense to shank Trump if the tax cut passes? If a given version of the tax bill dies in the House or the Senate, there's always a new and revised version that they can bring up and try to ram through. But when and if they decide to impeach Trump, that's going to take awhile - they would need to wait for *something* new to happen that they could sell as justification to the Republican base, and then it would take some time to bring up the impeachment bill, persuade representatives, impeach, have a senate trial, have a senate vote, and then remove. That's going to dominate the legislative calendar for awhile, and bring things into the heat of the 2018 elections, when a lot of blue-state Republicans in particular are not going to be dying to vote for a Koch-style tax cut bill. And if Republicans lose the House or the Senate in 2018, then they get no tax cut bill at all.

But if the tax cut bill passes...then they have what they want and they can shank Trump and start preparing for 2020.

[malchior]

While possible the Koch's have that sort of influence I think the GOP is terrified by Frankenstein's monster right now. Killing Trump while he has high popularity before the midterm might be seen as suicidal.

[El Guapo]

While possible the Koch's have that sort of influence I think the GOP is terrified by Frankenstein's monster right now. Killing Trump while he has high popularity before the midterm might be seen as suicidal.

It probably would be suicidal. It's not like democrats are going to embrace Pence in large numbers if Trump were impeached, and it would completely fracture the GOP base in unpredictable ways. The main reason to do it soon is to have as much time as possible to get ready for the 2020 election. That's also a big part of why I think there's a negative chance of Trump impeachment before a big tax cut bill passes - it would basically be sacrificing legislative priorities now and the 2018 election in service of 2020 and beyond.

[Kraken]

You guys are overlooking the most likely scenario - as soon as Mueller turns up the heat, Trump resigns.

In fact, I think the chances of Trump resigning are far higher than him ever getting impeached. There's no way Trump's going to not go out on his own terms.

But (IANAMFL) isn't remaining in office thought to be his only defense against indictment?

Leaving office also eliminates his pardon power, giving everyone else hyperincentive to be the first squealer.

Yeah, I doubt that Trump will leave office unless and until it's clear that there are enough votes to impeach and convict. Both because it's part of who he is (he has to win and be dominant), and because being President is his best defense against himself and his family going to jail.

Pence would very likely pardon him as well, but he's still better off having the power to do it himself rather than having to count on Pence, whom he won't be able to control after he leaves office.

Trump's fate depends on the outcome of the Koch tax cut. They have reached a shaky detente since Trump abandoned his campaign populism and got on board with the Koch agenda. But Trump is still Trump: mercurial, incompetent, petty, vindictive. If he sinks the Koch plan deliberately or through incompetence, Pence & co. will force him to resign or face the 25th. The Kochs don't own Trump directly, but they do own most of the people around him (especially Pence), and they bought this government specifically to deliver this tax cut. If Trump screws it up, he's outta there.

Doesn't it make more sense to shank Trump if the tax cut passes? If a given version of the tax bill dies in the House or the Senate, there's always a new and revised version that they can bring up and try to ram through. But when and if they decide to impeach Trump, that's going to take awhile - they would need to wait for *something* new to happen that they could sell as justification to the Republican base, and then it would take some time to bring up the impeachment bill, persuade representatives, impeach, have a senate trial, have a senate vote, and then remove. That's going to dominate the legislative calendar for awhile, and bring things into the heat of the 2018 elections, when a lot of blue-state Republicans in particular are not going to be dying to vote for a Koch-style tax cut bill. And if Republicans lose the House or the Senate in 2018, then they get no tax cut bill at all.

But if the tax cut bill passes...then they have what they want and they can shank Trump and start preparing for 2020.

I don't share your fixation on impeachment. My scenario involves a palace coup instead. It's based on what the New Yorker article told me about the Koch priority, their ownership of Pence and much of the GOP, and their provisional tolerance for Trump. If he screws up tax cuts then Trump will be forced to resign to sidestep the constitutional crisis (and humiliation) of actually invoking the 25th. A bloodless coup keeps the Koch agenda on track under President Pence because Congress is irrelevant to this maneuver. It blows up in their faces if Trump goes down swinging and takes the government with him. As long as he plays their game and doesn't screw it up, he is safe.

[malchior]

I don't see a scenario where Trump is forced to do anything. Unless Putin sanctions it.

It'd probably turn into a knock down slug fest. And that would be their number one worry. The man is only about himself and everyone knows it.

[Kraken]

The man is only about himself and everyone knows it.

I think that works in favor of the 25th Amendment coup. Save face and resign for whatever reason you want to make up ("Washington is mean to me!"), or try to fight being proven incompetent, knowing that everyone's lined up against you. He'd take the coward's way out.

[Rip]

This thread reeks of desperation.

Perhaps all that energy would be better spent figuring out how to win some elections?

[Smoove_B]

I know the popular line is that Pence will be a much better President than Trump and we can all relax because he's more in line with what we've come to expect from elected officials. However, he's truly a giant pile of garbage wearing a human suit, and I'm actually quite worried to think about him being elected. The article that started this thread paints a really scary picture, IMHO. Instead of being run by a moron, we're going to be at the whims of someone that fears the judgement of an invisible sky king - and isn't afraid to push policy that fits within his religious belief. He's not "better" than Trump, he's just a different type of awful. The idea that he's already this close to the Presidency is troubling to me as he's exactly the type of person that shouldn't be in elected office.

[El Guapo]

I know the popular line is that Pence will be a much better President than Trump and we can all relax because he's more in line with what we've come to expect from elected officials. However, he's truly a giant pile of garbage wearing a human suit, and I'm actually quite worried to think about him being elected. The article that started this thread paints a really scary picture, IMHO. Instead of being run by a moron, we're going to be at the whims of someone that fears the judgement of an invisible sky king - and isn't afraid to push policy that fits within his religious belief. He's not "better" than Trump, he's just a different type of awful. The idea that he's already this close to the Presidency is troubling to me as he's exactly the type of person that shouldn't be in elected office.

Well, I think President Pence would reduce the apocalyptic risks, both literally and figuratively. Pence is much less likely to get us into a nuclear war and end life on Earth, which is no small thing. I think Pence is less likely to try to create a dictatorship, though that's a little less clear.

Policy-wise I think Pence is probably about the same awful as Trump, but is more likely to be effective. Even so, I would take the trade-off of lower apocalyptic risks (harm which can't be undone once done) for the higher risk of awful policy (which can be reversed later).

[Pyperkub]

I know the popular line is that Pence will be a much better President than Trump and we can all relax because he's more in line with what we've come to expect from elected officials. However, he's truly a giant pile of garbage wearing a human suit, and I'm actually quite worried to think about him being elected. The article that started this thread paints a really scary picture, IMHO. Instead of being run by a moron, we're going to be at the whims of someone that fears the judgement of an invisible sky king - and isn't afraid to push policy that fits within his religious belief. He's not "better" than Trump, he's just a different type of awful. The idea that he's already this close to the Presidency is troubling to me as he's exactly the type of person that shouldn't be in elected office.

Well, I think President Pence would reduce the apocalyptic risks, both literally and figuratively. Pence is much less likely to get us into a nuclear war and end life on Earth, which is no small thing. I think Pence is less likely to try to create a dictatorship, though that's a little less clear.

Policy-wise I think Pence is probably about the same awful as Trump, but is more likely to be effective. Even so, I would take the trade-off of lower apocalyptic risks (harm which can't be undone once done) for the higher risk of awful policy (which can be reversed later).

It's tough - Pence would be far more theocratic, IMHO. In many ways I'd rather survive Trump than open the door to a longer-term theocratic party. I'm just hoping we can (survive Trump).

[Scoop20906]

Pence has no cult of personality and if it wasn't for hitching his wagon to Donny wouldn't be anywhere near the white house. He could govern professionally but I don't see him as one who can pull the attention/support that Trump pulls. And if for some reason he takes office, can you imagine how Trump will demean and snipe at him from the sidelines? He couldn't handle someone else he put there doing a better job than him and work tweet to undermine him. I hope this Trump thing is a one time deal. Normality will return. Eventually.

[milo]

I don't know. However Trump leaves (unless it's by retiring after a normal term of office) it will do incredible damage to a Republican party that is already struggling to hold its own coalition together. Pence may well be a capable executive, but he would be inheriting a half-built executive branch that is already at loggerheads with the legislature. I'm sure he could do plenty of damage by implementing existing law as perversely as possible, but could he actually drive any kind of agenda through Congress? Ryan and McConnell can't even do that now, before an impeachment or article 25 proceeding.

[Grifman]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

Not necessarily. If they flip Manafort and he has proof of hanky Panky, the house and Senate gop will turn on him really quickly.

You, sir, have a far higher opinion of the House GOP than I do.

Not to mention that the House only indicts, but the Senate convicts. It's highly unlikely that the Democrats get 67 seats or combo with Republicans for that amount. The House gives you nothing.

[Unagi]

I have zero doubts that President Pence would pardon ex-President Trump.

There seems to be quite a bit of evidence that Pence also committed obstruction. I'm sure President Ryan would Pardon ex President Pence.

This is my understanding as well. That there is a good chance Pence would be wrapped up in this so much that it wouldn't be just a clean hand-off of the Presidency.

[malchior]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

Not necessarily. If they flip Manafort and he has proof of hanky Panky, the house and Senate gop will turn on him really quickly.

You, sir, have a far higher opinion of the House GOP than I do.

Not to mention that the House only indicts, but the Senate convicts. It's highly unlikely that the Democrats get 67 seats or combo with Republicans for that amount. The House gives you nothing.

I think they are looking to deliver political damage. Meaning if they can get the man impeached then the trial might not get rid of him but it'll kill off any chance of him being legislatively effective. (Not that he is very effective as is).

[El Guapo]

Trump is not getting removed from office unless democrats at least capture the House first, so any President Pence scenario is one where he's constrained (at least initially) by a democratic party with a veto over legislation.

Not necessarily. If they flip Manafort and he has proof of hanky Panky, the house and Senate gop will turn on him really quickly.

You, sir, have a far higher opinion of the House GOP than I do.

Not to mention that the House only indicts, but the Senate convicts. It's highly unlikely that the Democrats get 67 seats or combo with Republicans for that amount. The House gives you nothing.

The House (and/or Senate) majority gets you essentially unrestrained subpoena power. It's not that Trump gets immediately impeached and convicted if the Democrats take the House, it's that the Democrats can then let loose the dogs of congressional investigatory committees, and they turn up super incriminating stuff that gets you closer to impeachment.

Granted, still hard to get to 67 senators, but that would be the likely path to that, if there is any.

[GreenGoo]

This thread reeks of desperation.

Perhaps all that energy would be better spent figuring out how to win some elections?

It's not their turn to gerrymander yet.

[hepcat]

This thread reeks of desperation.

Perhaps all that energy would be better spent figuring out how to win some elections?

Perhaps Paul Rand should be doing the same thing. I mean, your guy did lose, you know. You only became a Trump fan after coming to the conclusion it was the best way for you to troll.