Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

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Who Ya Got?

Paul Manafort
29
49%
Michael Flynn
15
25%
Jared Kushner
1
2%
Carter Page
4
7%
Roger Stone
2
3%
Donald Trump Jr.
1
2%
Trump
1
2%
Other(s)
6
10%
 
Total votes: 59

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Smoove_B
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Let's go back to October of 2016 for this delicious quote:
Manafort had arranged for Trump to meet with his first choice for the job on July 13: Indiana Governor Mike Pence. Afterwards, the plans was for Trump and Pence to then fly back to New York together and a formal announcement would be made, a campaign source said of Manafort’s thinking.

What had previously been reported as a “lucky break” by the New York Times was actually a swift political maneuver devised by the now fired campaign manager. Set on changing Trump’s mind, he concocted a story that Trump’s plane had mechanical problems, forcing the soon-to-be Republican nominee to stay the night in Indianapolis for breakfast with the Pence family on Wednesday morning.

Swayed by Pence’s aggressive pitch, Trump agreed to ditch Christie and make Pence his VP the following day, according to a source.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by pr0ner »

The indictment is public. The first charge is Conspiracy Against the United States.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by msteelers »

pr0ner wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:10 am The indictment is public. The first charge is Conspiracy Against the United States.
Wow. It's a strange feeling to see a prominent figure like Manafort charged with Conspiracy Against the United States. I knew it was likely to happen... but it's totally different to actually see it.

Shit just got real.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by malchior »

I skimmed the indictment and it really hit home that this is the first step in a long road probably. This is probably just the first piece of the puzzle and Mueller did this to attempt to get some air cover to move forward with the investigation into actual Russian involvement. Now we see if his position survives the week.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Tareeq with the explanation:
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by malchior »

I'm with Tareeq on that. It was conspiracy to launder money and mislead about his status as a foreign agent. It wasn't the CONSPIRACY that everyone wants...yet :)
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by tgb »

Manafort was in the meeting with the Russian lawyer, Junior and The Jew. He might have some juicy info to trade away.

Not coincidentally, "Junior & the Jew" will be airing on NBC starting mid-January.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Captain Caveman »

Manafort owed money to people linked with those interfering in our election. He worked for free to be Trump's campaign manager and during this time he sat in at least one meeting with Russians about interfering in the election, the campaign softened the GOP's position towards Russia, and Trump was nothing but deferential to Putin and encouraged Russia to hack into Hillary's emails. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by El Guapo »

I suppose "Other" is also correct, since that would cover Rick Gates, Manafort's protégé. Who, incidentally, was also a senior Trump campaign official.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Captain Caveman »

And now George Papadopoulos too...
https://twitter.com/yashar/status/925003993952260097
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by El Guapo »

Yeah, possible that there are still more coming today / later this week.

Other big question is whether there are any cooperation agreements in place. Pleading guilty to lying to the FBI would be a plausible part of such an agreement.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Captain Caveman »

Trump weighs in: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 9569041409

The charges actually go into 2016 when he worked for the campaign. But even if they didn't, why the fuck did you hire someone like this? it's not like his connections weren't known. Hard to believe that it wasn't part of the known package.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Captain Caveman »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 8989715456

:lol:
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Holman »

I read somewhere (can't dig it up) that these charges against Manafort probably aren't the only ones he'll face, but some elements of these crimes were coming up on their statute of limitations.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by El Guapo »

Yeah, Popehat confirming that the Pappadolous secret plea suggests cooperation with Mueller.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Skinypupy »

Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:29 am Trump weighs in: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 9569041409

The charges actually go into 2016 when he worked for the campaign. But even if they didn't, why the fuck did you hire someone like this? it's not like his connections weren't known. Hard to believe that it wasn't part of the known package.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:31 am I read somewhere (can't dig it up) that these charges against Manafort probably aren't the only ones he'll face, but some elements of these crimes were coming up on their statute of limitations.
Yeah, these are the charges that Mueller feels that he can prove right now. Does sound like some of the tax charges were running up against SoL issues, which would presumably be part of Mueller's calculus on indictment timing.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Captain Caveman »

The Papadopoulos stuff sure sounds like collusion. Could it be that the Manafort charges are actually the less important development of the day?
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Skinypupy wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:37 am
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:29 am Trump weighs in: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 9569041409

The charges actually go into 2016 when he worked for the campaign. But even if they didn't, why the fuck did you hire someone like this? it's not like his connections weren't known. Hard to believe that it wasn't part of the known package.
Nothing projects the dignity and poise we expect from the leader of the free world like a neverending screech of "NO U!".
I'm waiting for the day he tweets, "I know you are but what am I?".
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El Guapo
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by El Guapo »

Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:38 am The Papadopoulos stuff sure sounds like collusion. Could it be that the Manafort charges are actually the less important development of the day?
It's clearly related. Papadoulous saying that he met with someone that he knew was connected to the Russian government, days after Pap signed onto the Trump campaign as a foreign policy advisor, and that the person wanted to talk with him because of his role on the Trump campaign.

Seems pretty clear that Papadoulous is telling Mueller stuff related to his contacts with the Russian government as part of the campaign.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by msteelers »

pr0ner wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:42 am
Skinypupy wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:37 am
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:29 am Trump weighs in: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 9569041409

The charges actually go into 2016 when he worked for the campaign. But even if they didn't, why the fuck did you hire someone like this? it's not like his connections weren't known. Hard to believe that it wasn't part of the known package.
Nothing projects the dignity and poise we expect from the leader of the free world like a neverending screech of "NO U!".
I'm waiting for the day he tweets, "I know you are but what am I?".
Does this count?
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by El Guapo »

Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by pr0ner »

msteelers wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:45 am
pr0ner wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:42 am
Skinypupy wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:37 am
Captain Caveman wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:29 am Trump weighs in: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 9569041409

The charges actually go into 2016 when he worked for the campaign. But even if they didn't, why the fuck did you hire someone like this? it's not like his connections weren't known. Hard to believe that it wasn't part of the known package.
Nothing projects the dignity and poise we expect from the leader of the free world like a neverending screech of "NO U!".
I'm waiting for the day he tweets, "I know you are but what am I?".
Does this count?
That's pretty close!
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Captain Caveman »

Seth Abramson (how credible is he?)on twitter is claiming the Paapadpolous file suggests a quid pro quo between the Russians and the Trump campaign: change the GOP platform on Russia in exchange for hacked emails. I don’t know if this is a Mensch-ian interpretation or there’s real meat to this...
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by El Guapo »

Recall that Papadolous is one of the five people that Trump said advises him on foreign policy matters.

Also the plea deal was submitted on October 5th. I imagine the timing of getting the news out today is that Manafort covers the "it's only a minor figure!" criticism that people would make (not that Papadolous was really a minor figure, but lesser known), and Papadolous covers the "it's not related to collusion!" criticism.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by El Guapo »

538 is live-blogging indictment news, btw.

Not that this is a surprise, but still interesting to have it confirmed:
The plea agreement with Papadopoulos is here, and it includes this language, “the Government agrees to bring to the Court’s attention at sentencing the defendant’s efforts to cooperate with the Government, on the condition that your client continues to respond and provide information regarding any and all matters as to which the Government deems relevant.”
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Max Peck »

Don't. Listen. To. The. Lawyer. You. Incredibly. Stupid. Arrogant. Motherfuckers.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Holman »

Interesting thread: are we too far gone for the Right to see wrongdoing if it's proven?

link
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Holman wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:59 am Interesting thread: are we too far gone for the Right to see wrongdoing if it's proven?
Fox news was running a story about emoji cheeseburgers earlier - because that's the biggest issue facing America this morning.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Skinypupy »

Holman wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:59 am Interesting thread: are we too far gone for the Right to see wrongdoing if it's proven?

link
Sad and horrifying, but probably true. We're already seeing the talking points being gobbled up hook, line, and sinker by the Trumpaloos.
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:09 am Fox news was running a story about emoji cheeseburgers earlier - because that's the biggest issue facing America this morning.
Fox News was on when I was picking up my car from the shop this morning, and they were having a vigorous discussion about NFL players kneeling again. :roll:
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Fireball »

I'm so exhausted of all of this shit. Trump is destroying our country. I wish I could just go to bed and wake up in four years, or just not wake up at all if he somehow gets re-elected.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

AWS260 wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:59 am
First thing I think of:

Image
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Moliere »

Trump Campaign Foreign Policy Adviser's Guilty Plea Could Be More Important Than Manafort's Indictment
the Manafort indictment is far from the smoking gun that many in the anti-Trump crowd hoped it to be. Manafort is accused of taking money to lobby for Ukraine and laundering it through other countries and businesses so that they he wouldn't have to publicly account for it and pay taxes on it, but the alleged criminal activity seems to have occurred prior to and independent of Manafort joining the Trump campaign. That Trump hired someone with such questionable dealings certainly reflects poorly on the president's judgment and sense of character, but that's hardly new territory for the current occupant of the White House.

Second, Papadopoulos' indictment has a much more significant nexus with the actual Trump campaign. According to the FBI, Papadopoulos began communicating with the unnamed "professor" in March 2016, shortly before taking the role of foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign. The professor and Papadopoulos met on several occasions in Italy and London, according to the court documents, and during one of those meetings in April 2016, the professor told Papadopoulos that Russia had "dirt" on Hillary Clinton, including thousands of Clinton's emails. Papadopoulos shared that information with higher-ups in the Trump campaign.

Third, Papadopoulos—unlike Manafort and Gates—has already pleaded guilty and has been answering questions for the FBI for months. After his initial interview with the FBI in January, Papadopoulos was called back for a second interview in February. Around the same time, the FBI says, he deleted his Facebook account (which he had used to contact the professor and a woman with ties to the Russian government) and changed his cell phone number. Papadopoulos was arrested on July 27.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Moliere »

Lawsplainer: The Manafort/Gates Indictment
So the federal grand jury looked at all of the evidence against Manafort and selected these charges against him and Gates?
...
So what are they charged with?
...
How much time to Manafort and Gates face?
...
So what happens next?
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

I haven't really followed all the speculation and details, other than the general time period this indictment covers for Manafort (i.e before the Trump campaign), but it seems (to me) that perhaps this is the prelude to a much larger set of indictments. But first Mueller needs to set the stage of where this all began and how Manafort's actions before Trump developed into a Trump campaign and then Trump administration problem. Again, maybe that's just my take on it but in the words of Karen and Richard, "We've only just begun..."
Last edited by Smoove_B on Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Unagi »

white lace and promises...


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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by Holman »

Readers of tea leaves are seeing a lot in Mueller's double revelation this morning: the Manafort charges are about Russian oligarch money, the Papadpolous revelations are about collusion in election interference. Both sets of documents imply that there's more to come.

If I were a Trump-adjacent suspect, I'd begin to think about the benefits of rolling early.
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Re: Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Post by tgb »

I spent 90% of the money I made on women, booze, and drugs. The other 10% I just pissed away.
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