Who Gets Arrested on Monday? Or: Looming Constitutional Crisis Thread

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:47 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:42 pm Readers of tea leaves are seeing a lot in Mueller's double revelation this morning: the Manafort charges are about Russian oligarch money, the Papadpolous revelations are about collusion in election interference. Both sets of documents imply that there's more to come.

If I were a Trump-adjacent suspect, I'd begin to think about the benefits of rolling early.

Yeah, but if they were wise they wouldn't be Trump-adjacent in the first place.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:51 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:42 pm Readers of tea leaves are seeing a lot in Mueller's double revelation this morning: the Manafort charges are about Russian oligarch money, the Papadpolous revelations are about collusion in election interference. Both sets of documents imply that there's more to come.

If I were a Trump-adjacent suspect, I'd begin to think about the benefits of rolling early.

Plus, you have the example of the extensive charge list (encompassing possibly decades in prison, depending on sentencing guidelines) for Manafort who is (as far as we know at this point) not cooperating, vs. the one (relatively) lesser charge against the guy who is cooperating. Plus everyone on the campaign who dealt with Papadolous has to think about what exactly Paps is saying about them.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:55 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:51 pmPlus everyone on the campaign who dealt with Papadolous has to think about what exactly Paps is saying about them.

And that fact that he has probably been wearing a wire.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:59 pm

This is the biggest news I've seen today:

Four sources told NBC News that there was a statute of limitations issue in play that may have helped drive Monday's charges by Mueller.

Essentially, Mueller's hand was forced by the statute of limitations on some of the money laundering and other charges. IMHO, Mueller isn't done by a longshot, but had to get some of these charges filed ASAP.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:02 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:55 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:51 pmPlus everyone on the campaign who dealt with Papadolous has to think about what exactly Paps is saying about them.
And that fact that he has probably been wearing a wire.

That's....a good point. We was evidently arrested flying into Dulles back in July. What has he been doing since then? Especially since October 5th?

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:26 pm

this footnote in the Papadopoulos indictment appears to indicate that Mueller has proof of both collusion and conspiracy:

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:33 pm

HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:20 pm

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:26 pm this footnote in the Papadopoulos indictment appears to indicate that Mueller has proof of both collusion and conspiracy:

The generous explanation of that is that the senior campaign people are trying to give the entreaties the brush-off without starting a big fire - 'send someone low-level to say that Trump's not doing these trips.'

The problem is that Papadopoulos isn't really a fringe figure on the campaign, especially since he was cited by Trump as one of his main foreign policy campaign advisors. The other problem is that in a lot of ways this makes the June Trump Tower meeting much harder to explain - clearly from this Manafort (and presumably Trump Jr.) are aware of the Russian offer to provide thousands of e-mails and other dirt on HRC. So when Trump Jr. responds enthusiastically to the offer of a meeting and materials on HRC as part of a broader Russian government effort to help Trump....like, he's doing so aware of the previous offers to provide this stuff by Russia. Hard to read that as anything other than collusion at the highest levels of the campaign.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:25 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:20 pm
Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:26 pm this footnote in the Papadopoulos indictment appears to indicate that Mueller has proof of both collusion and conspiracy:

The generous explanation of that is that the senior campaign people are trying to give the entreaties the brush-off without starting a big fire - 'send someone low-level to say that Trump's not doing these trips.'

The problem is that Papadopoulos isn't really a fringe figure on the campaign, especially since he was cited by Trump as one of his main foreign policy campaign advisors. The other problem is that in a lot of ways this makes the June Trump Tower meeting much harder to explain - clearly from this Manafort (and presumably Trump Jr.) are aware of the Russian offer to provide thousands of e-mails and other dirt on HRC. So when Trump Jr. responds enthusiastically to the offer of a meeting and materials on HRC as part of a broader Russian government effort to help Trump....like, he's doing so aware of the previous offers to provide this stuff by Russia. Hard to read that as anything other than collusion at the highest levels of the campaign.

Agreed - It all depends on whether Mueller can tie it to Don Jr/Manafort's meeting with the Russians.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:27 pm

This certainly can be seen as interesting.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:01 pm

Here are some scraps for Rip:

Democratic power lobbyist Tony Podesta, founder of the Podesta Group, is stepping down from the firm that bears his name after coming under investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:11 pm

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:01 pm Here are some scraps for Rip:

Democratic power lobbyist Tony Podesta, founder of the Podesta Group, is stepping down from the firm that bears his name after coming under investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller.

Cool, now they just need to run cover for them until the SoL runs out.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:25 pm

Now that we have the Mueller documents, journos are starting to building a timeline.

Trump was always willing to praise Putin, but when did he first start attacking NATO as obsolete and suggesting that we just had to get over the seizure of Crimea (and thus that sanctions were obsolete)?

About two days after Papadopulos told the FBI he met with Trump to talk about Russia. And from then on he brings up NATO and Ukraine in nearly every speech and interview, related to foreign policy or not, for a while.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:30 pm

Means that Mueller showed the judge evidence that Manafort consulted with his attorney for the purposes of committing a crime.

Very, very unusual.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:20 pm

Per Lawfare:

The stipulation also contains some rather damaging information about President Trump himself. Papadopoulos says he attended a “national security” meeting on March 31, 2016, at which Trump himself was present, along with his other foreign policy advisers. In that meeting, Papadopoulos told the group that he had connections to arrange a meeting between Trump and Russian President Putin. This means that Trump either knew or should have known about his campaign’s effort to interface with Russia, even as news of various criminal hacking and attempts to interfere with the U.S. election were becoming public.

If Mueller can flip Manafort, or anyone else at that meeting...

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:00 pm

The biggest thing I’ve learned from the evidence against Manafort is that you can spend a million dollars on eight rugs.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:10 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:00 pm The biggest thing I’ve learned from the evidence against Manafort is that you can spend a million dollars on eight rugs.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:13 pm

Oh, Hannity.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:47 pm

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:00 pm The biggest thing I’ve learned from the evidence against Manafort is that you can spend a million dollars on eight rugs.

That rug really tied the room together, did it not?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:30 pm

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:20 pm Per Lawfare:

The stipulation also contains some rather damaging information about President Trump himself. Papadopoulos says he attended a “national security” meeting on March 31, 2016, at which Trump himself was present, along with his other foreign policy advisers. In that meeting, Papadopoulos told the group that he had connections to arrange a meeting between Trump and Russian President Putin. This means that Trump either knew or should have known about his campaign’s effort to interface with Russia, even as news of various criminal hacking and attempts to interfere with the U.S. election were becoming public.
If Mueller can flip Manafort, or anyone else at that meeting...

I like how Trump was at the meeting, but we still need to qualify it with a "or should have known."

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:30 am

"Clarifying: Manafort's "Bond007" password is from the Adobe & Dropbox leaks. It might not be his email password. It's been public since 2013"

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:32 am

Yeah, his email password is: shakennotstirred

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:13 am

Holman wrote:
hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:00 pm The biggest thing I’ve learned from the evidence against Manafort is that you can spend a million dollars on eight rugs.
That rug really tied the room together, did it not?

️

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:15 am

I guess now we can start betting on when: (1) Flynn gets indicted; (2) Kushner gets indicted; and (3) Trump tries to fire Mueller and/or issue blanket pardons.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:30 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:15 am I guess now we can start betting on when: (1) Flynn gets indicted; (2) Kushner gets indicted; and (3) Trump tries to fire Mueller and/or issue blanket pardons.

The Trump administration: where "Pardon me" goes from being a nicety uttered in polite company to a last-ditch plea screamed at the top of your lungs as you're hailed off by the Feds.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:57 am

Of course on the pardons thing - it seems pretty likely that Manafort and Gates could be charged by the NYAG if they are pardoned, given that they had strong NY connections (I believe) during the time that they were committing the financial crimes at issue here.

Not sure if the NYAG could charge Papadopolous, but even if a pardon got him out of his obligations to cooperate in the plea agreement (and I'm not 100% sure that it would), Mueller probably has most of what he needs in sworn affidavits and recordings already, I would imagine.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:02 am

El Guapo wrote:I guess now we can start betting on when: (1) Flynn gets indicted; (2) Kushner gets indicted; and (3) Trump tries to fire Mueller and/or issue blanket pardons.

I figure Flynn is one of the other sealed indictments and is either cooperating or in negotiations to do so.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:42 am

No big deal if Kushner gets indicted - he's just a low level volunteer in the White House.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:43 am

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:42 am No big deal if Kushner gets indicted - he's just a low level volunteer in the White House.

Man, I can't wait for Trump to try to distance himself from Kushner, and then Trump Jr. "Trump Jr. Who?"

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:17 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:43 am
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:42 am No big deal if Kushner gets indicted - he's just a low level volunteer in the White House.
Man, I can't wait for Trump to try to distance himself from Kushner, and then Trump Jr. "Trump Jr. Who?"

Come on, they are only 36 and 39. Just kids doing what kids do. Hillary is 70! She is the one who should be arrested.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:19 am

Moliere wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:17 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:43 am
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:42 am No big deal if Kushner gets indicted - he's just a low level volunteer in the White House.
Man, I can't wait for Trump to try to distance himself from Kushner, and then Trump Jr. "Trump Jr. Who?"
Come on, they are only 36 and 39. Just kids doing what kids do. Hillary is 70! She is the one who should be arrested.

"You're saying that this person is my son? Not ringing a bell. Maybe you're thinking of Barron? He's great at the cyber, you know."

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:50 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:57 am Of course on the pardons thing - it seems pretty likely that Manafort and Gates could be charged by the NYAG if they are pardoned, given that they had strong NY connections (I believe) during the time that they were committing the financial crimes at issue here.

Several of the wire transfers terminated to businesses in NY state and probably via NY state located financial entities.

Not sure if the NYAG could charge Papadopolous, but even if a pardon got him out of his obligations to cooperate in the plea agreement (and I'm not 100% sure that it would), Mueller probably has most of what he needs in sworn affidavits and recordings already, I would imagine.

I'd imagine the bulk of his usefulness was wrapped up by 10/5 when his plea was finalized.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:38 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:19 am
Moliere wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:17 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:43 am
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:42 am No big deal if Kushner gets indicted - he's just a low level volunteer in the White House.
Man, I can't wait for Trump to try to distance himself from Kushner, and then Trump Jr. "Trump Jr. Who?"
Come on, they are only 36 and 39. Just kids doing what kids do. Hillary is 70! She is the one who should be arrested.
"You're saying that this person is my son? Not ringing a bell. Maybe you're thinking of Barron? He's great at the cyber, you know."

<George Pop-n-fresh-metropolis releases video showing Barron taking candy from a Russian oligarch with close ties to Putin, while responding, "Yessss...this mini snickers and peanut brittle will do nicely...my father will do as you ask.".>

Trump: Barron? I've seen him around the Trump Tower in New York a few times. He was a low level family member at best...and unpaid to boot.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:55 pm

This may be the first Thanksgiving where the turkey gets to pardon the President...

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:56 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:55 pm This may be the first Thanksgiving where the Turkey gets to pardon the President...

Shamelessly stolen!

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:00 pm

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:56 pm
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:55 pm This may be the first Thanksgiving where the Turkey gets to pardon the President...
Shamelessly stolen!

As I did before you.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:51 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:00 pm
Pyperkub wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:56 pm
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:55 pm This may be the first Thanksgiving where the Turkey gets to pardon the President...
Shamelessly stolen!
As I did before you.

I mean, you all joke, but there are real legal questions about whether the President can pardon himself. Passing pardon authority to the turkey could be a nice loophole around that issue.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 3:04 pm

I think we should all show some respect and address the Vice President by his title.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:47 pm

Twitter abuzz with rumors of more indictments Friday:

The hashtag #FlynnFriday appeared on Twitter late Wednesday as hundreds of social media users responded to a sudden rumor that fired Donald Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn would be the target of a new indictment handed down by Russia investigation Special Counsel Robert Mueller — and that Flynn could be arrested as soon as Friday, November 3. The online rumor appears to have started with Scott Dworkin, a former Democratic strategist who is now a senior adviser to the Democratic Coalition Against Trump.

IMHO, Flynn is one of the 4 sealed indictments on the docket, and if the indictment is unsealed and he is arrested, I suspect that he cut a deal, or didn't have enough dirt to cut a deal despite trying to.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:59 pm

I think it's almost a given at this point that Flynn will be indicted. But is there any actual evidence to support that the indictment will be unsealed on Friday?

Who Ya Got?