[Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

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Who will be the 2018 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Joe Biden
12
29%
Cory Booker
2
5%
Andrew Cuomo
0
No votes
Kirsten Gillibrand
4
10%
Kamala Harris
1
2%
Martin 0'Malley
1
2%
Bernie Sanders
3
7%
Elizabeth Warren
4
10%
Oprah Winfrey
1
2%
Other
14
33%
 
Total votes: 42

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Grifman
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[Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Grifman »

So, place your bets now and share your political insight! I've enabled re-voting so you can change your vote over time as you know more, so consider this the OO tracking poll. So feel free to vote, state your choice, and if you change it, then feel free to state why. Of course if someone not listed becomes the favorite, you'll just have to vote other :)
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by ImLawBoy »

I voted other just because the field seems a safer bet than any one individual this far away.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by pr0ner »

Other is my vote for now.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

A lot it depends on who decides to run. Biden (from everything he's said) seems like a 90%+ lock to run, and it also seems like Sanders is very likely to run too. Those two would start as the overwhelming frontrunners - I'd be surprised if one of the two are not the nominee.

Though there's a lot of variability insofar as it seems like we're likely to have over a dozen people running, so the votes are going to be pretty thinly divided.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

If you say "other" you should pick who you think is the likely nominee, or else this is going to get boring super fast.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by LordMortis »

From that list, I hope Warren. Though at this juncture, I prefer a better diplomat. I would have seen her run and win in 2016 but we're in an ouchee way, right now and I don't think she's the right suture.

So, I'm hoping someone comes from the field. I have no idea who.

Also I have no idea who the Dems will actually pick. I have no faith in their ability to find the right person.
Last edited by LordMortis on Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

I wonder if Warren runs if Sanders is also running.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by LordMortis »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:38 am I wonder if Warren runs if Sanders is also running.
I would hope he'd defer to her but I'm not sure his ego would let him if he chose to throw his hat in.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by pr0ner »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:36 am If you say "other" you should pick who you think is the likely nominee, or else this is going to get boring super fast.
I honestly have no idea who would be the likely nominee. It's way too early to say.

Did we think Trump was the likely GOP nominee in January 2014? Nope.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by ImLawBoy »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:36 am If you say "other" you should pick who you think is the likely nominee, or else this is going to get boring super fast.
Nope. My point is that I don't know who it will be - I just think it's not likely to be someone that we've already identified as a potential frontrunner today.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Kraken »

Waaaay too early to handicap intelligently, so for now I just went with my personal preference: Liz Warren. The big question is whether voters will be open to another "change" candidate or prefer a nice safe return-to-normalcy moderate. My hunch says it will be the latter...but ask again in a couple of years.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:42 am
El Guapo wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:36 am If you say "other" you should pick who you think is the likely nominee, or else this is going to get boring super fast.
I honestly have no idea who would be the likely nominee. It's way too early to say.

Did we think Trump was the likely GOP nominee in January 2014? Nope.
Obviously, but then the discussion's not especially interesting.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by YellowKing »

Went with Biden. It would be really hard for me to vote for Sanders, though I'd hold my nose and do it instead of Trump or Pence or whoever's still left in this administration once Mueller is done.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Holman »

I can't decide on a vote yet, both because it's too early and because I can't figure out whom I'd guess if I had to.
pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:42 am
El Guapo wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:36 am If you say "other" you should pick who you think is the likely nominee, or else this is going to get boring super fast.
I honestly have no idea who would be the likely nominee. It's way too early to say.

Did we think Trump was the likely GOP nominee in January 2014? Nope.
Well, Trump was a big surprise almost out of the blue, but what are the odds that the Dems will suffer a similar catastrophe? IIRC people were already talking Bush vs Rubio vs Cruz in 2014. Had Trump not entered the race, that discussion would have stayed relevant through the primary.

I think the Dem factions are pretty well represented in the posted list. Of course it's still possible for a new player the enter the game, but it would probably be a politician catapulted to prominence by 2018/2019 events (perhaps the Russia investigation) rather than an outside agitator.

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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

One big question is whether the democrats will wind up with a brokered convention in 2020. At this point it actually seems more likely than not, because:

(1) It looks like they're getting rid of superdelegates
(2) Almost all democratic primaries allocate delegates proportionally (so if you get 40% of the vote you get 40% of the delegates, even if someone else got 55%).
(3) There is likely to be over a dozen candidates, so the vote could well be thinly divided.
(4) California (with the biggest delegate haul) moved its primary up to the beginning of the race, when there are likely to be a ton of candidates.

All of which may make it very hard for anyone to get a majority of the delegates, unless someone (Sanders or Biden, most likely) has a few crushing victories early and winnows the field.

If so, I'm sure that that convention will go super well.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Moliere »

Biden will be 77.
Sanders will be 78.

Democrats really need someone younger.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by em2nought »

With Charlie Sheen you'd get absolutely no surprises. He is the most transparent man in the room. :wink:
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Last edited by em2nought on Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

Moliere wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:29 pm Biden will be 77.
Sanders will be 78.

Democrats really need someone younger.
I mean, yes, but that's what's going to happen.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Jeff V »

Many of the names on that list have repeatedly denied they will run. The party is not (I hope) going to make the mistake of a presumptive nominee this early like they did with Hillary. There is no reason to give the GOP 3 years worth of character assassination -- especially when they are doing a great job imploding. After the mid terms you'll see some beginning to declare (first will be the fringe candidates that need to get going on name-recognition). While one or two on the list might throw their hat in the ring, I think we'll see a repeat of their most recent successes and a relative unknown (like Obama and Bill Clinton were) will prove to be charismatic enough to unite the party factions as well as popular support.

So my choice would be "Other" and that other is someone I don't yet know.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by gbasden »

I have a bit of a political crush on Gillibrand, but I have no idea whether she will decide to run or be successful if she does. I really like her policy ideas though.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Scuzz »

I voted other because I think many of those options are too old and others are not ready.

I do believe Kamala Harris may be a VP candidate though.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Holman »

Yeah, I think Harris will be VP unless Warren is the top of the ticket.

While I'd prefer a younger POTUS, Biden/Harris or Biden/Warren would get me out there canvassing the PA swing suburbs. (Of course Biden wouldn't need my help at all there.)
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Grifman »

Scuzz wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:32 pm I voted other because I think many of those options are too old and others are not ready.

I do believe Kamala Harris may be a VP candidate though.
Well, if many are too old, and the others not ready, exactly who not on that list is a viable candidate according to your criteria :)
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by YellowKing »

I'd love to see a woman win as a repudiation of everything Trump stands for. I think the public is more than ready. From movie heroines to #MeToo, there's a tidal wave of female power happening. The fact that Hillary came thisclose to winning despite being a terrible candidate and all the cards that were stacked against her makes me think it's a strong possibility. Plus it would forever stick in Trump's craw that he got beat by a girl. :P
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

Biden, Booker, Gillibrand, and Sanders are all virtual locks to run. Harris seems very likely too. O'Malley and Cuomo are both virtual locks not to run. Warren and Winfrey are big question marks - my guess is Oprah doesn't, and Warren probably doesn't unless Sanders ultimately decides not to run (which is unlikely unless something happens before 2019, like a health scare or something).
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Daehawk »

Whoever they pick I hold no hope that it will be a viable winnable candidate.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Alefroth »

Bezos.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Rip »

None of them will be able to beat Ivanka.....

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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by hepcat »

Well...at least not without help from Russia.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Please let it be Biden. I think he would have wiped the floor with Trump had he run the last time.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Holman »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:10 pm Please let it be Biden. I think he would have wiped the floor with Trump had he run the last time.
Age is an issue there. In January 2021, Biden will as old as Reagan was when he left office.

Sanders is even older.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Kraken »

Holman wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:42 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:10 pm Please let it be Biden. I think he would have wiped the floor with Trump had he run the last time.
Age is an issue there. In January 2021, Biden will as old as Reagan was when he left office.

Sanders is even older.
Yeah, the key words in Carpet's post are "last time." Much as I personally like both Biden and Sanders, their Oval Office opening came and went. One hopes the D Party won't make another tone-deaf pick next time.

Warren would be a fine choice if they decide they're the progressive party. She's smart, she's tough, she's articulate, I find her charismatic, and the Trumpelos loathe her. IDK who would be an equivalent young(ish) and exciting candidate if they decide they're going to be the centrist party instead. It's kinda hard to be both cautious and energizing, especially in this time when extremists on either side get all the attention.

That progressive/establishment tension is the main thing the Dems need to resolve (and the main thing they got wrong in '16). The midterms should go a long way toward informing that choice.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Combustible Lemur »

Warren /Booker, Harris/ Kennedy, Gillibrand/ Harris

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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Holman »

Warren/Schiff is probably my dream team: progressive, charismatic, fighting hard right now for the values of the Republic.
Combustible Lemur wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:33 pm Warren /Booker, Harris/ Kennedy, Gillibrand/ Harris
I haven't thought much about Joe Kennedy in 2020, but everything I hear about him is good. It might be a bit early for him, but Harris/Kennedy would be an absolutely thrilling (if risky) ticket.

Harris is slightly less progressive than Warren, which might actually work in her favor in the general election.

It probably says something that both pairs are California/Massachusetts.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Combustible Lemur »

Holman wrote:Warren/Schiff is probably my dream team: progressive, charismatic, fighting hard right now for the values of the Republic.
Combustible Lemur wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:33 pm Warren /Booker, Harris/ Kennedy, Gillibrand/ Harris
I haven't thought much about Joe Kennedy in 2020, but everything I hear about him is good. It might be a bit early for him, but Harris/Kennedy would be an absolutely thrilling (if risky) ticket.

Harris is slightly less progressive than Warren, which might actually work in her favor in the general election.

It probably says something that both pairs are California/Massachusetts.
Gillibrand/ Booker would be fiery.

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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:40 pm
Holman wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:42 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:10 pm Please let it be Biden. I think he would have wiped the floor with Trump had he run the last time.
Age is an issue there. In January 2021, Biden will as old as Reagan was when he left office.

Sanders is even older.
Yeah, the key words in Carpet's post are "last time." Much as I personally like both Biden and Sanders, their Oval Office opening came and went. One hopes the D Party won't make another tone-deaf pick next time.

Warren would be a fine choice if they decide they're the progressive party. She's smart, she's tough, she's articulate, I find her charismatic, and the Trumpelos loathe her. IDK who would be an equivalent young(ish) and exciting candidate if they decide they're going to be the centrist party instead. It's kinda hard to be both cautious and energizing, especially in this time when extremists on either side get all the attention.

That progressive/establishment tension is the main thing the Dems need to resolve (and the main thing they got wrong in '16). The midterms should go a long way toward informing that choice.
Biden and Sanders are both 1,000% running in 2020, though.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by gbasden »

El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:16 am

Biden and Sanders are both 1,000% running in 2020, though.
You're most likely correct, unless Trump's mental state continues to fail and dementia becomes a widely recognized issue. That may make being old heading into the campaign a liability.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by Scuzz »

Grifman wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:35 pm
Scuzz wrote: Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:32 pm I voted other because I think many of those options are too old and others are not ready.

I do believe Kamala Harris may be a VP candidate though.
Well, if many are too old, and the others not ready, exactly who not on that list is a viable candidate according to your criteria :)
Biden, Sanders and Warren are too old. Winfrey is a joke, as much as Trump.

The Dems need someone younger with energy who can invigorate the voters. And they need to avoid the far left.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

gbasden wrote: Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:09 am
El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:16 am

Biden and Sanders are both 1,000% running in 2020, though.
You're most likely correct, unless Trump's mental state continues to fail and dementia becomes a widely recognized issue. That may make being old heading into the campaign a liability.
One big wildcard with both of them is that if they had some type of big public health scare, that could both dampen their interest in running and make their age and health a significant campaign issue. But otherwise I'm not sure that will be a big problem - it will just make it more important that they pick a relatively young and not-crazy VP candidate. Harris would be perfect for either of them.
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Re: [Poll] Who will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Post by El Guapo »

I can't believe only one other person here is voting for Sanders. He's very likely to run, and he's going to start as the primary front-runner.
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