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Trump Trade War

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Grifman
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Trump Trade War

Post by Grifman » Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:46 am

The Trump thread has so many things it it, I thought it would be good to have a separate thread for this rather than it being buried in the general thread, since it really is an ongoing "thing". So here is the thread for NAFTA, TPP, Trump tariff's and just general war on world trade.

I'll start with this - our friends are not happy:

h[url]ttps://www.cnn.com/2018/03/08/politics/tariff- ... index.html[/url]

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/09/news/ec ... index.html
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Remus West » Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:28 am

Grifman wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:46 am
I'll start with this - our friends are not happy
Our dear leader tells us that the Russians are our friends and they are undoubtedly happy about this.

On a side note, is there an over/under on how long it takes Trump to turn us officially into a third world nation.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:40 am

It depends on how you define it - in many metrics we certainly aren't first world any longer. I personally like Developed vs. Emerging. You could almost argue we have a Developed portion and a part that has receded back to Emerging. The coastal areas have maintained a high standard of living and wages. Rural areas have not. They don't have leading jobs, medical care, information infrastructure, education, etc. Trump talks about helping the population that has fallen behind but all he is really doing is stepping on the Developed portion and getting ready to gut the Emerging part.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:46 pm

Remus West wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:28 am
On a side note, is there an over/under on how long it takes Trump to turn us officially into a third world nation.
It depends. Are you taking odds from a Puerto Rican bookmaker?
Time and tide melt the snowman.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip » Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:50 pm

Yea it is horrible.
The U.S. economy enjoyed the biggest hiring spree since mid-2016 in February as workers streamed in from the sidelines of the labor force, but inflation pressures remained muted amid signs the pay gains that spooked financial markets last month haven’t taken hold.

Payrolls rose 313,000 in February, compared with the 205,000 median estimate in a survey of economists, and the two prior months were revised higher by 54,000, Labor Department figures showed Friday. The jobless rate held at 4.1 percent, the fifth straight month at that level. Average hourly earnings increased 2.6 percent from a year earlier following a downwardly revised 2.8 percent gain.

U.S. stock futures and bond yields rose, as the report signaled the labor market remains strong and will keep driving economic growth. The wage figures show a cooling from a pace that spurred financial turbulence last month on concern that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates faster.

While the unemployment rate remains well below Fed estimates of levels sustainable in the long run, the rise in participation suggests the presence of slack that would keep policy makers to a gradual pace of hikes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... low-to-2-6

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:07 pm

Historical figures prior to him starting a trade war. Try to stay on topic.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:32 pm

Hit us up in 8 years when the country is a burning crater from all these horrible policies he is coming up with. It's going to make the great recession look like a walk in the park. I actually wish I was wrong, but I don't see how it won't all blow up. Deregulation, insane tax cuts, tariffs that will increase costs AND piss off the world. Ya this is great. :P
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by hepcat » Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:35 pm

Rip wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:50 pm
Yea it is horrible.
Not yet...but Smoot-Hawley seemed like a good idea at the time too.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:06 pm

And since we're not tariffing finished steel goods, you're going to kill domestic processors:
The only company in the United States making beer kegs fashioned from American steel is struggling to survive. The president’s newly signed levies on imported steel are unlikely to help.

The American Keg Company of Pottstown — its prices undercut by kegs imported from China, France and Germany — slashed its workforce by a third earlier this year. Only 20 people now work where 30 were once employed.

“The cost of an imported keg just barely covers the raw materials on one of ours,” said American Keg CEO Paul Czachor. “It’s very difficult to compete.”
...
But if the price of imported steel is inflated with a defacto tax, shouldn’t that make American-made products more competitive?

No. And the reason is counterintuitive, said Czachor. He believes the cost of American steel will rise while “American businesses will suffer,” he said.

“If there were no tariffs, that would keep the domestic steel prices lower,” Czachor said. “We understand the administration is trying to solve a problem, but it is not holistically getting addressed.”

The newly enacted taxes will not apply to finished steel products produced outside the U.S., Czachor said. And that’s where he sees the real trouble. Imported kegs, tools and heavy equipment are not subject to the new tariffs.

“Downstream imported products, made outside of the U.S. that use a lot of steel, will still be priced cheaply,” he said. “If the Chinese make lockers for a high school, people can import them with no tariff. The imported kegs will still come in using low-cost steel.”

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:08 pm

Rip wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:50 pm
Yea it is horrible.
Which has got to make you wonder who is whispering in his ear to get him to tank it.

Hey, I'm glad the US is doing well. The recovery was a long road full of tough decisions that obviously paid off. I'm sure the current president will take steps to ensure it continues.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Daehawk » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:45 pm

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by YellowKing » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:51 pm

My Debbie Downer side says the economy is going to go gangbusters until midterms and the Democrat wave rolls in. Then Trump's policies will actually start to take effect, economy will tank. new Congress will be blamed, and we'll all be looking at four more years of Trump in 2020. It's what keeps me up at night.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by em2nought » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:29 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:32 pm
Hit us up in 8 years when the country is a burning crater from all these horrible policies he is coming up with.
I'm hoping to be living the good life in Ecuador by then. :wink:
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by geezer » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:33 pm

YellowKing wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:51 pm
My Debbie Downer side says the economy is going to go gangbusters until midterms and the Democrat wave rolls in. Then Trump's policies will actually start to take effect, economy will tank. new Congress will be blamed, and we'll all be looking at four more years of Trump in 2020. It's what keeps me up at night.
Oh, it's a 100% guarantee that the already-locked in increases in taxes are going to be blamed on Democrats, and 110% guaranteed that a high percentage of idiots will believe it.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:26 pm


Trump announcing new tariffs: “The word is reciprocal. That’s the word I want everyone to remember. Reciprocal. Mirror. Some people call it a mirror tariff or a mirror tax. Just use the word reciprocal.”

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Holman » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:33 pm

"Not many people know that the word reciprocal means mirror."
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by El Guapo » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:39 pm

Right. So everyone will impose *reciprocal* tariffs, making our stuff more expensive there, too.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by stessier » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:41 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:39 pm
Right. So everyone will impose *reciprocal* tariffs, making our stuff more expensive there, too.
Naw, it's fine. He called no backsies.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Defiant » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:57 pm

So I should buy mirrors before their prices go up?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Brian » Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:59 pm

I don't know but I'm loading up on these babies while I can. They can only go up Up UP!
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:57 pm

On the other hand, the pressure on China is huge:
The punitive actions unveiled by President Trump on Thursday — about $60 billion in tariffs a year and other penalties targeting Chinese goods, as well as new restrictions on Chinese investment in the United States — will put Mr. Xi on the spot, forcing him to consider retaliatory action that could send a shudder through the global economy and complicate his efforts to sustain China’s rapid growth in the face of rising debt and an aging population.

Chinese leaders are judged in part on how they manage relations with the United States, and a damaging trade war, if handled poorly, might diminish Mr. Xi’s political standing and test the wisdom of the highly centralized power structure that he has erected around himself. If he retreats and offers significant concessions, however, Mr. Xi risks looking weak and inviting criticism in a political system that has fanned nationalist and anti-American sentiment.

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said that Chinese leaders had been so successful over the years in deflecting criticism of the country’s trade practices in the United States that they may have been slow to realize the gravity of the confrontation brewing.
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:35 am

China responds with a list of 128 American products to slap tariffs on.
The world's second-largest economy has responded to President Donald Trump's controversial trade tariffs.

China's commerce ministry proposed a list of 128 U.S. products as potential retaliation targets, according to a statement on its website posted Friday morning.

The U.S. goods, which had an import value of $3 billion in 2017, include wine, fresh fruit, dried fruit and nuts, steel pipes, modified ethanol, and ginseng, the ministry said. Those products could see a 15 percent duty, while a 25 percent tariff could be imposed on U.S. pork and recycled aluminium goods, according to the statement.

The statement did not go into greater detail. U.S. agricultural products, particularly soybeans, have been flagged as the biggest area of potential retaliation by Chinese President Xi Jinping's administration.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by stessier » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:30 am

We export ginseng to them? That surprises me.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:53 am

stessier wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:30 am
We export ginseng to them? That surprises me.
Ditto.

LA Times, 2015
One of the most popular holiday gifts in China is ginseng, stamped with an unusual guarantee: 100% American.

Few consumers are more faithful to American products than Chinese users of ginseng: the U.S. exported $77.3 million in ginseng roots last year, most of it to Hong Kong, and American ginseng fetches the highest price of any cultivated variety.

The Asian market prizes the American strain for its stronger flavor and high levels of the active ingredient that is said to unlock the root's myriad but unproven health benefits.

The other part of the U.S.' competitive advantage is favorable feng shui. Ginseng grown in North America is said to have a "cool" nature and calming effect, which means it can be taken daily; Asian ginseng is considered "hot" and must be consumed in limited quantities.

American ginseng is cheaper in the U.S. than in China. In the San Gabriel Valley, herbal stores cluster on streets near hotels popular with tourists, their shelves loaded with red boxes covered in quality seals and branded with American flags.

But an American flag is no guarantee of American authenticity, said Tom Hack, international marketing director for the Ginseng Board of Wisconsin, where he says up 95% of the U.S. crop is grown.

In a recent survey at an Asian food expo in Southern California, the board found that less than 12% of ginseng products labeled as Wisconsin ginseng actually came from Wisconsin.

Hack says American ginseng purchased in America is more likely to be Canadian, or....
...
As proof, he offers some math. Wisconsin produces about 700,000 pounds of ginseng a year — 95% of the American crop, according to the Ginseng Board. About 80% of that is exported directly to Asia. That leaves roughly 140,000 pounds of genuine Wisconsin ginseng for distribution in the U.S. — a small fraction of U.S. sales.
...
U.S. ginseng suppliers typically aren't selling Wisconsin-grown ginseng, Hack said, because so little of it is available in the domestic market. The U.S. imports a lot of ginseng for domestic use — about $31.3 million of it in 2014, according to WiserTrade, an research firm that compiles data on U.S. foreign trade.
Wisconsin: Cheese and ginseng.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:16 am

People around me who otherwise avoid discussing politics at all costs are pissed about this. I think there is a lot of 401k fear happening right now and 2008 and massive layoffs everywhere in my area is still fresh in everybody's memories.

Trade War appears to be the sound of Trump losing Michigan in 2020 irrespective of Grand Rapids and the Rural areas controlling the state legislature.

(And of course whether my fellow Michiganers realize and accept it or not, we benefit heavily from NAFTA as well)

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:21 am

A state that borders with a signatory country might actually have a vested interest in profitable, easy trade? Say it ain't so, Plucky!

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Carpet_pissr » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:35 am

LordMortis wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:16 am
People around me who otherwise avoid discussing politics at all costs are pissed about this. I think there is a lot of 401k fear happening right now and 2008 and massive layoffs everywhere in my area is still fresh in everybody's memories.

Trade War appears to be the sound of Trump losing Michigan in 2020 irrespective of Grand Rapids and the Rural areas controlling the state legislature.

(And of course whether my fellow Michiganers realize and accept it or not, we benefit heavily from NAFTA as well)
I'm sure the Fox spin doctors will figure out a way to make it sound like Obama or Hillary's fault that this trade war is starting. "Because Obama didn't act accordingly during his tenure, Trump is now having to do this unpalatable action that may affect American workers adversely in the short term, for the long term good of the country. Thanks, Obama!"

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:44 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:35 am
LordMortis wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:16 am
People around me who otherwise avoid discussing politics at all costs are pissed about this. I think there is a lot of 401k fear happening right now and 2008 and massive layoffs everywhere in my area is still fresh in everybody's memories.

Trade War appears to be the sound of Trump losing Michigan in 2020 irrespective of Grand Rapids and the Rural areas controlling the state legislature.

(And of course whether my fellow Michiganers realize and accept it or not, we benefit heavily from NAFTA as well)
I'm sure the Fox spin doctors will figure out a way to make it sound like Obama or Hillary's fault that this trade war is starting. "Because Obama didn't act accordingly during his tenure, Trump is now having to do this unpalatable action that may affect American workers adversely in the short term, for the long term good of the country. Thanks, Obama!"
Far too nuanced.

More like "international banking conspiracy" and "immigrant workers" and "BLM terrorists." It's dog whistle time
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:48 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:44 am
"international banking conspiracy"
1) Sadly, I could that one becoming a real thing. We need to withdraw from the UN and quit funding globalist rule over the Constitution
2) ????
3) They've ruined our economy!

Hell, even the billionaire president had to turn Russia to stay out of the pocket of Multinational zionist bankers.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:45 pm

Another Opinion piece on how bad the Trade war could be for China:
In 2016, a stunning 68.0 percent of China’s overall merchandise trade surplus related to sales to the U.S. In 2017, that figure increased to 88.8 percent. Trade-surplus countries, as history shows, generally suffer more in trade wars.

Beijing, therefore, is generally vulnerable to being pushed around by Washington. “If trade is so unimportant to China, why has China’s trade predation lasted so long and taken so many different forms?” Alan Tonelson, an independent Washington, D.C.-based trade analyst, asked, in comments to The Daily Beast over the weekend.

Second, the American economy is far bigger than the Chinese one. Beijing claimed gross domestic product of $12.84 trillion in 2017. America’s economy, by way of contrast, clocked in at $19.39 trillion last year.

China’s GDP numbers are surely overstated because, especially during the last two years, the country’s growth was less than half that reported by the official National Bureau of Statistics. America’s larger economy is, at the moment, in fact growing at a faster clip than China’s.
So,I'm not entirely convinced a trade war will be worse for the US than it will for China - and I don't think most economists on either side of the issue have really studied what a trade war's effects could be on a (somewhat) planned economy which has been gaming trade and currency levels for decades (and most likely has a lot of fraud hiding that the stresses of a trade war could expose, like the downturn exposed all the housing/Credit/CDS fraud in the US in 2008).

However, from my 30+ year old Econ courses, ultimately trade wars are bad for everyone, but given China's odd mix of Communism/Capitalism and one-party (now dictator for life) rule, it could bring the house of cards down (which is a huge danger in and of itself, worldwide).
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:43 pm

Pyperkub wrote:
Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:45 pm
“If trade is so unimportant to China, why has China’s trade predation lasted so long and taken so many different forms?” Alan Tonelson, an independent Washington, D.C.-based trade analyst, asked, in comments to The Daily Beast over the weekend.
I wonderer who Alan Tonelson might be, so I went digging.

Alan Tonelson
Alan Tonelson (born 1953) is an American Research Fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council Educational Foundation. ... He argues that U.S. economic policy should aim for "preeminence" over other countries, just as, he believes, other countries' economic policies seek their own national interests. He is critical of various forms of "globalism" and internationalism.
...
Books
The Race to the Bottom: Why a Worldwide Worker Surplus and Uncontrolled Free Trade are Sinking American Living Standards, Basic Books, 2002.
The United States Business and Industry Council (USBIC) is an NGO lobbying on behalf of family-owned and closely held US manufacturing companies. It was founded in 1933.
One of their latest tweets:

Spoiler:
Check out the latest new stories about the PIVOT of OBAMA...to nowhere. http://americaneconomicalert.org/opinion_home.asp … #trade #tpp #china #japan
They seem unbiased.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:06 pm

That's about what I expected, but I do think that the impact on China is being seriously undersold in the rush to crucify Trump. And I do try to avoid dogmatic thought, and there are times when Free Trade uber alles rises to the level of dogma, IMHO.

I wouldn't be too surprised if this blows over with concessions from China pretty quickly. I'd think it would have worked better if the TPP (as much as I loathed the IP provisions in it to back door enact SOPA/PIPA) were in place with a strong diplomatic effort to isolate China on this issue, however.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:02 pm

Reuters
China has increased tariffs by up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products, from frozen pork and wine to certain fruits and nuts, escalating a dispute between the world’s biggest economies in response to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel.

The tariffs, which take effect on Monday, were announced late on Sunday by China’s finance ministry and matched a list of possible tariffs on up to $3 billion in U.S. goods published by China on March 23.
...
The Ministry of Commerce said it was suspending its obligations to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to reduce tariffs on 120 U.S. goods, including fruit and ethanol. The tariffs on those products will be raised by an extra 15 percent.
...
Eight other products, including pork and scrap aluminum, would now be subject to additional tariffs of 25 percent, it said, with the measures effective starting April 2.
...
U.S. President Donald Trump is separately preparing to impose tariffs of more than $50 billion on Chinese goods following an investigation under Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act.

The U.S. administration says China has systematically misappropriated American intellectual property - allegations China denies.

About the Section 301 investigation, China had “yet to unsheathe its sword,” the official Xinhua news agency said.

Sometime this week, the Trump administration is expected to unveil a list of Chinese goods that could be subjected to new U.S. tariffs.

U.S. technology industry officials said they expected the list to target products that benefit from Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” program, which aims to upgrade the domestic manufacturing base with more advanced products.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:41 am

GWoT II, the War on Trade.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Holman » Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:48 am


Owner, Trump Casino wrote:When you’re already $500 Billion DOWN, you can’t lose!
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Octavious » Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:49 am

God it's going to take two lifetimes to fix all this shit he's done in 2 years. If it can ever be fixed.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Skinypupy » Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:56 am



A few more detailed numbers confirming that Trump is completely full of shit. As always.
“Don’t tickle the wall clown.” - MST3K

malchior
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:33 am

What's really interesting about this trade war is the Chinese are not ruled by fools. They are picking products that directly impact his political base. And they are doing it at their own expense since the goods they picked are everyday staples. Though they can manage it many ways. It is sort of fascinating how out matched Trump is in anything he does.

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LordMortis
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:05 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:02 pm
Reuters
China has increased tariffs by up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products, from frozen pork and wine to certain fruits and nuts, escalating a dispute between the world’s biggest economies in response to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel.

The tariffs, which take effect on Monday, were announced late on Sunday by China’s finance ministry and matched a list of possible tariffs on up to $3 billion in U.S. goods published by China on March 23.
...
The Ministry of Commerce said it was suspending its obligations to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to reduce tariffs on 120 U.S. goods, including fruit and ethanol. The tariffs on those products will be raised by an extra 15 percent.
...
Eight other products, including pork and scrap aluminum, would now be subject to additional tariffs of 25 percent, it said, with the measures effective starting April 2.
...
U.S. President Donald Trump is separately preparing to impose tariffs of more than $50 billion on Chinese goods following an investigation under Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act.

The U.S. administration says China has systematically misappropriated American intellectual property - allegations China denies.

About the Section 301 investigation, China had “yet to unsheathe its sword,” the official Xinhua news agency said.

Sometime this week, the Trump administration is expected to unveil a list of Chinese goods that could be subjected to new U.S. tariffs.

U.S. technology industry officials said they expected the list to target products that benefit from Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” program, which aims to upgrade the domestic manufacturing base with more advanced products.
The U.S. administration says China has systematically misappropriated American intellectual property - allegations China denies.
Now that is where the opening lobby should have been launched but as we all know, The US administration like to throw shit at the fan and see what sticks and then smear with it.

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Smoove_B
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Smoove_B » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:11 pm

Looking forward to the coming news articles that start interviewing Iowans that (1) voted for Trump and are (2) currently about to get drilled by the ethanol tariffs. Because I'm pretty sure I remember then-candidate Trump out in Iowa stumping to the farmers that he was going to protect and promote their interests.

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