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Trump Trade War

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Kraken
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:10 pm

One prognosticator foresees a "growth recession" by the end of next year or beginning of '20. That's when GDP is still positive, but at such a low level that it feels like a recession. This fellow thinks it will fall to 0.9%. I'm not gonna put a lot of stock in that...but a slowdown in GDP and corporate profits is widely expected.

Some economists are making a big deal out of the fact that the "yield curve" inverted this week. I don't fully understand it, not being an investor myself, but I think it's when long-term bond yields fall below short-term because investors expect hard times farther out. It's supposed to be the most reliable predictor of recessions.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:48 pm

Here's an explanation of the yield curve from Reuters.
The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.
Time to onset of a recession ranges from 12-24 months. Now you know.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:30 pm

Been reading the same re: inversion and recession.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Holman » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:36 pm

It was always said that it took Obama two full years to turn the Bush economy into the Obama economy.

I think we're right on schedule.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:10 am

Pyperkub wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:38 pm
pr0ner wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:22 am
I'm sure Canada arresting Huawei's CFO for extradition to the US won't help US/Chinese relations any.
BBC seems to think it's based on the Iran/North Korea sanctions and not the Trade War, though it certainly could be both.
Yup. The publication ban was overturned.
On Friday, the Supreme Court of British Columbia was told that Ms Meng had used a Huawei subsidiary called Skycom to evade sanctions on Iran between 2009 and 2014.

The court was told that she had publicly misrepresented Skycom as being a separate company.

Ms Meng faces up to 30 years in prison in the US if found guilty of the charges, the court heard.

Court reporters said she was not handcuffed for the hearing and was wearing a green sweatsuit.

A Canadian government lawyer said Ms Meng was accused of "conspiracy to defraud multiple financial institutions".

He said she had denied to US bankers any direct connections between Huawei and SkyCom, when in fact "SkyCom is Huawei".

The lawyer said Ms Meng could be a flight risk and thus should be denied bail.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:02 pm

Trump willing to obstruct justice in order to smooth things over with China.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would intervene with the U.S. Justice Department in the case against a Chinese telecommunications executive if it would help secure a trade deal with Beijing.

“If I think it’s good for the country, if I think it’s good for what will be certainly the largest trade deal ever made – which is a very important thing – what’s good for national security – I would certainly intervene if I thought it was necessary,” Trump said in a wide-ranging interview with Reuters in the Oval Office.

Trump expressed optimism that he could strike a trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping as the two countries struggle to resolve a dispute that has contributed to recent U.S. stock market declines and raised questions about whether economic turmoil could beset the president in the new year.

At the request of U.S. authorities, Huawei Technologies Co. executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested earlier this month in Vancouver on charges of violating U.S. sanctions against Iran.
In other news, she was granted bail.
The chief financial officer of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei has been granted bail by a Canadian court.

Meng Wanzhou was arrested on 1 December and could be extradited to the US to face fraud charges linked to the alleged violation of sanctions on Iran.

A judge in Vancouver set bail at C$10m (£6m; $7.4m). She will be under surveillance 24 hours a day and must wear an electronic ankle tag.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Freyland » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:13 am

Max Peck wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:02 pm

In other news, she was granted bail.
The chief financial officer of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei has been granted bail by a Canadian court.

Meng Wanzhou was arrested on 1 December and could be extradited to the US to face fraud charges linked to the alleged violation of sanctions on Iran.

A judge in Vancouver set bail at C$10m (£6m; $7.4m). She will be under surveillance 24 hours a day and must wear an electronic ankle tag.
And since the ankle tag was made by Huawei, China was able to not only unlock it, but talk to her as well to plan her exodus.

(Not a true story (yet), but sadly a realistic one.)
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Unagi » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:16 pm

Well, I'm sure Canada saw that there was nothing to gain (judicially) from handing her over to the U.S.

I get the feeling that playing poker with Trump would be really really lucrative.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Fitzy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:23 pm

Unagi wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:16 pm

I get the feeling that playing poker with Trump would be really really lucrative.
Unlikely. First he'd promise to pay later. Then refuse to pay because you cheated. Finally he'd insist he won to everyone and demand you pay him.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:46 pm

He'd insist on "name your game, dealer's choice", then he'd whine about your choice when you deal. When comes to his deal, he'd make a game up and then insist on changing the obtuse rule set he created mid deal. This is to say nothing of his actually blatantly cheating with expectation that cheating doesn't matter, or at least it doesn't matter when he does it. Cheating is part of gambling when he plays. Poker isn't really the game. Winning is having the chips, no matter how you get them.

Essentially, he'd ruin poker night for about the first round of one evening before someone gets frustrated and expresses themselves and walks away, either tainting poker night forever or ensuring that you try and arrange future poker nights without him.

In short I have a feeling playing poker with Trump would result in a waste of an evening an blood pressure being elevated. Somewhere between no and little money would exchange hands. My guess is afterwards Trump would boast at how he won at poker and the other players were losers and he's not ever going to play with them again.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Unagi » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:16 pm

Okay Okay Okay... He would ruin a good game of poker, I get it.
:D

I'm just saying this guy doesn't play anything very close to his chest.

yeesh.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Eel Snave » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:21 pm

This is my ONE fear about threats to oust Trump. What if you kick him and Pence out, then the economy nosedives? Voters aren't smart enough to figure that out. I feel like if Trump gets impeached, then Pence stays in, people will blame the downturn on Pence and vote accordingly.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:10 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:16 pm
Politico
The Treasury Department Monday eased sanctions on Russian aluminum producer Rusal and said it would consider lifting them altogether if the company severs ties with Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch with close ties to President Vladimir Putin.
The Hill
The Trump administration plans to lift sanctions on companies owned by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska after he significantly reduced his ownership stake in them.

The Treasury Department announced Wednesday that it would lift financial sanctions on Deripaska’s aluminum company, United Co. Rusal, as well as En+ Group plc and JSC EuroSibEnergo in 30 days, after Deripaska agreed to reduce his ownership stake in each of the companies to below 50 percent.
...
The sanctions on Deripaska and his companies were imposed in April under a law passed by Congress to punish Russia for interfering in the 2016 presidential election, in addition to other malign activities.

The sanctions will be lifted in 30 days, according to Treasury, but Congress could still block the move.
...
The Trump administration separately on Wednesday unveiled new sanctions on Russian intelligence officers for election interference and the nerve agent attack on an ex-Russian spy in Britain.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:18 pm

So the guy has a buddy buy out part of his stake to get below 50% and voila, nomar sanctions? Truly Trumpian.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:25 pm

Who could have seen this coming? :think:


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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:27 pm

WaPo
The Catoctin Creek Distilling Co., maker of rye whiskey, gin and the occasional fruit brandy, had big dreams of conquering Europe in 2018.

Scott and Becky Harris, founders of the small-town distillery in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, even had handshake agreements with the cocktail shakers of London’s finest hotels.

But weeks after the Harrises’ triumphant European tour, the White House unleashed a trade war with the European Union by slapping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The E.U. retaliated with tariffs that made some American goods, including bourbon and rye whiskey, more expensive to import.

Catoctin Creek’s orders from Europe dried up, and a potential British distributor lost interest. He “ghosted us like a bad girlfriend,” Scott Harris said from the distillery’s red-brick tasting room as a pair of shiny stills chugged away behind a plate-glass window. “He just stopped answering the phone.”
...
Barriers to Europe are especially vexing for small businesses, which often turn to the E.U. as their first export destination. The reliability of the legal system, the prevalence of English speakers and the high level of consumer income make it an easier market for small U.S. firms to navigate, entrepreneurs say.

The E.U.’s 25 percent tariffs have crimped the sales growth of a variety of U.S. exporters, including apparel companies, boat builders and peanut butter makers. Lee Zalben, founder of Peanut Butter & Co., a 15-person firm in Manhattan, said European buyers are canceling or trimming orders, or asking for discounts.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:56 pm

malchior wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:25 pm
Who could have seen this coming? :think:

Wait, wait, wait. So you're saying reducing tariffs generally makes for more successful trade between two countries and this happens at the expense of high tariff nations? Holy shit. Someone tell the POTUS!

(Note: I did not and do not support TPP. It was a bad deal for the US and should have kept on the table for something better but backing out? inexcusable. I also support tariffs when losing the continuity of domestic production for domestic purposes is in the interests of national security or national economic stablity, which ultimately feeds national security as well as the well being of the citizens in the union.)

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:44 pm

Strangely it appears one of Trump's minions spoke the truth - maybe it was an accident?


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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Jaymann » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:49 pm

"You're fired!"
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:56 pm

Ah I think I see what is happening. I believe he thinks that trade impact will put pressure on China to make a deal. I guess it is an idea but he is specifically talking about American companies. So China cares somewhat since Apple does business there but China didn't start this nonsense so I don't don't know it is much of a lever.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by pr0ner » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:47 am

Thanks, Trump.

Hodor.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:31 pm

Posted in the Shutdown thread about how those impacted by the soybean war aren't getting relief payments.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:38 pm

Over the past several weeks I've been reading multiple news articles from many sources outside of the US, including publications out of Asia (I have no idea if they are independent, in a certain government's pocket, or pro-west publications) that outline the growing negative effects the trade war is having on China, and the increasing pressure Beijing is under to do something about it. The take away is that the trade war is absolutely applying pressure to China and that they are looking for ways out. It's certainly possible that they capitulate with some of the demands from the current WH administration. We'll have to wait to see, which is what we've been doing from the beginning.

Of course America is hurting too, despite an ongoing campaign to paint everything as rosy (service jobs are at an all time high, for example. woo. hoo), and from the beginning it was understood that trade wars hurt everyone, so it should come as no surprise that China is hurting. It's not necessarily evidence that the trade war is being won, although feel free to spin it that way if it helps.

The bottom line is that China is hurting and will continue to hurt. The next round of tariffs might see some movement from their end.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Remus West » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:56 am

I haven't seen it posted here but I may have simply missed it. Did anyone else see the clip of China's negotiator laughing openly at Trump not understanding what an MOU is?
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... -confusion

No clip there but article on the meeting. I can not seem to find the clip now.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by stessier » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:16 pm

Remus West wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:56 am
I haven't seen it posted here but I may have simply missed it. Did anyone else see the clip of China's negotiator laughing openly at Trump not understanding what an MOU is?
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... -confusion

No clip there but article on the meeting. I can not seem to find the clip now.
You could go with the twitter post linked in the article. :)



Edit: That video is way worse than the text description. Egads.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:23 pm

Remus West wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:56 am
I haven't seen it posted here but I may have simply missed it. Did anyone else see the clip of China's negotiator laughing openly at Trump not understanding what an MOU is?
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... -confusion

No clip there but article on the meeting. I can not seem to find the clip now.
It is never a good sign when your negotiating partner (opponent) openly laughs at your ignorance.

From what I'm reading, the deal that they will sign will be good enough to prevent tariffs from escalating, but not good enough to take down the ones already in place. Of course Trump will declare a great victory. He only cares about optics. He still doesn't know how tariffs work, so the odds that he understands the ins and outs of the agreement are nil.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:10 pm

As someone paid for their expertise and for making sure higher ups have all the information they need to understand what's happening, what could happen, and the ramifications of any actions/inactions, I can tell you that a higher up actively trying to stifle discussion is absolutely a good sign and always results in positive results for all parties involved.

This action is partisan neutral and is universally true whatever a person's politics.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Remus West » Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:34 pm

stessier wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:16 pm
Remus West wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:56 am
I haven't seen it posted here but I may have simply missed it. Did anyone else see the clip of China's negotiator laughing openly at Trump not understanding what an MOU is?
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... -confusion

No clip there but article on the meeting. I can not seem to find the clip now.
You could go with the twitter post linked in the article. :)



Edit: That video is way worse than the text description. Egads.
Twitter is blocked at work so it didn't even show me the link. Oddly enough though, when folks post them here I can see them and interact with them. Someone at district did not do their blocking script very well it seems.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:58 am

Politico
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China set a new record during President Donald Trump’s second year in office, despite his efforts to rein in what the administration views as Beijing's trade transgressions. The trade gap rose to $419.2 billion in 2018, from the previous record of $375.5 billion in 2017, a Commerce Department report released Wednesday showed.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:20 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:58 am
Politico
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China set a new record during President Donald Trump’s second year in office, despite his efforts to rein in what the administration views as Beijing's trade transgressions. The trade gap rose to $419.2 billion in 2018, from the previous record of $375.5 billion in 2017, a Commerce Department report released Wednesday showed.
Wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:54 pm

Kraken wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:48 pm
Here's an explanation of the yield curve from Reuters.
The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.
Time to onset of a recession ranges from 12-24 months. Now you know.
Bloomberg
A closely watched section of the Treasury yield curve on Friday turned negative for the first time since the crisis more than a decade ago, underscoring concern about a possible economic slump and the prospect that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates.

The gap between the 3-month and 10-year yields vanished on Friday as a surge of buying pushed long-end rates sharply lower. Inversion is widely considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S. The 10-year slipped to as low as 2.439 percent.
...
The 3-month to 10-year curve is widely favored as an indicator that the economy is within a couple of years of recession. But Friday’s move is an extension of the inversion at the front end of the curve that happened in December. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields has also narrowed, to around 10 basis points.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:35 am

Trump's washing machine tariffs created 1800 jobs...at a cost (to consumers) of $817,000 per job.
Research to be released on Monday by the economists Aaron Flaaen, of the Fed, and Ali Hortacsu and Felix Tintelnot, of Chicago, estimates that consumers bore between 125 percent and 225 percent of the costs of the washing machine tariffs. The authors calculate that the tariffs brought in $82 million to the United States Treasury, while raising consumer prices by $1.5 billion.
...
It is hardly surprising that the tariffs drove up the price of foreign washers. Perhaps more unexpectedly, they also prompted American manufacturers to raise their prices.

Companies that largely sell imported washers, like Samsung and LG, raised prices to compensate for the tariff costs they had to pay. But domestic manufacturers, like Whirlpool, increased prices, too, largely because they could.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Jaymann » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:58 am

I always knew Trump was a Socialist.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:23 pm

WaPo Opinion: Henry Olsen - Columnist focusing on politics, populism, and American conservative thought
Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) declared over the weekend that the Senate would not even consider President Trump’s renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, unless he first removed tariffs on steel and aluminum. Whatever the merits of this particular demand, it demonstrates the continuing stranglehold that free-trade fundamentalism holds over Republican lawmakers. The president needs to stand firm and fight this zealotry if he is going to fulfill his promise to restore the American dream for the millions whom the modern free-trade era has left behind.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by El Guapo » Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:28 pm

Kraken wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:35 am

...
It is hardly surprising that the tariffs drove up the price of foreign washers. Perhaps more unexpectedly, they also prompted American manufacturers to raise their prices.

Companies that largely sell imported washers, like Samsung and LG, raised prices to compensate for the tariff costs they had to pay. But domestic manufacturers, like Whirlpool, increased prices, too, largely because they could.
Unexpectedly? That's Econ 101. You are reducing competition by essentially setting a minimum price above the current price for some of the competitors in the market.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed May 01, 2019 1:03 pm

WaPo
President Trump and senior White House officials are working to salvage political support for a revised trade pact with Mexico and Canada, stunned by bipartisan blowback that appeared likely to scuttle a key initiative.

Several Democrats said Trump put on a charm offensive Tuesday during a White House meeting, soliciting their feedback on what he would need to do to win their support for an updated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

It was much different from the antagonistic approach he has taken with Democrats in recent weeks while they ramp up investigations into his finances and businesses. White House officials have said Trump really wants the Canada-Mexico trade deal to be successful, and he knows he needs support from Democrats to achieve this.
...
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) has told the White House this week that the trade agreement cannot pass the GOP-controlled Senate unless Trump first lifts tariffs steel and aluminum tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Trump has said he is reluctant to do this before both countries agree to import quotas, but patience among Republicans for this negotiating style has worn thin.
...
Democrats have said they will insist on strict enforcement of labor standards in exchange for their vote, and they want union leaders to be on board with any deal. Top union officials have so far refused to endorse the deal until changes are made.

Democrats have been careful, though, and have not flatly rejected the deal like they rallied to oppose many of the White House’s other tax and economic proposals. That’s in part because U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer has worked very closely with Democrats and union leaders throughout the negotiations to keep them updated on developments and seek their input. At the White House meeting on Tuesday, Democrats praised Lighthizer in front of the president
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Wed May 01, 2019 1:10 pm

"Charm offensive"? I don't even want to imagine what that would look like.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Remus West » Wed May 01, 2019 2:12 pm

My first thought on reading that was "I wonder when tRump is going to try and fire Lighthizer".
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by TheMix » Wed May 01, 2019 2:12 pm

At the White House meeting on Tuesday, Democrats praised Lighthizer in front of the president
So he's next for the chopping block?
Isgrimnur - Facebook makes you hate your friends and family. LinkedIn makes you hate you co-workers. NextDoor makes you hate your neighbors.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Sun May 05, 2019 11:51 pm


Spoiler:
Dow futures drop more than 450 points as China considers skipping trade talks
Silver - 1k

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