Trump Trade War

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:15 pm

Don't worry, it will all pan out through magical forces.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:16 pm

I think they mean underpants gnome economics.

Soon we'll hear recession is a good thing just like devaluing the dollar and destabilizing the markets are good. (which I suppose are good things if you are invested with rubles and the ones doing directing the destabilization)

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:18 pm

And now Japan starts starts nervously moving away from the US because of Trumps erratic behavior

Donald Trump’s erratic posture on trade is forcing Japanese policymakers to rethink their reliance on the economic and political alliance with the United States, according to a former high-level diplomat from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Wendy Cutler, former acting deputy U.S. Trade Representative, explained that recent Japanese trade initiatives, such as the newly negotiated Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, are concrete examples of Japan’s drive to diversify trade relationships and “hedge” against a decline in U.S. influence and power in Asia.

“I think Japan has learned that Trump is unpredictable. You may be his best friend one day, but a week later he is complaining about Japanese trade,” Cutler said in an interview Saturday. She is familiar with Tokyo’s trade policy through her negotiations with Japanese diplomats over the original TPP trade deal.

Cutler, currently vice president and managing director of the Asia Society in Washington, added that a vacuum of U.S. leadership in Asia will encourage Japan and the region’s other countries to push forward deals and other initiatives that do not rely exclusively on the U.S., such as the 11-member CPTPP.

WINNING!

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pm

No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:26 pm

Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pm No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.

They need our market more as long as the Dollar is the stable central fiat currency of in the world. The moment that changes, that's all she wrote. Quite frankly, I don't want to the world's central super power "peacekeeper", so I'm OK with that. I just don't want my world to go complete shit when we let go. And I have about zero faith not only in our economy not going to complete shit, but that it won't turn a developing cold war into hot war no one will could possibly win.

Except I guess for people who think they are due to be the ones raptured and seem to be trying to bring it on.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:30 pm

Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pm No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.

I'm sure that's very comforting to the people who are being affected by this right now.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:35 pm

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:30 pm
Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pm No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.
I'm sure that's very comforting to the people who are being affected by this right now.

Well, sure, but Rip doesn't live there and they should know better than to be farmers. Go get a job like everyone else.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:48 pm

"But I never thought the leopards would eat MY face!!"

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:51 pm

Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pm No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.

LOL.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:58 pm

Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pmThey are hoping that political forces force him to back off

ENTER MITCH MCCONNELL:

President Donald Trump may think trade wars are "good and easy to win," but Sen. Mitch McConnell said they'd be disastrous for Kentucky. "I'm not a fan of tariffs, and I am nervous about what appears to be a growing trend in the administration to levy tariffs," McConnell said. "This is a slippery slope, so my hope is that this will stop before it gets into a broader tit-for-tat that can't be good for our country."

When Mitch is willing to go on record, you know it must be serious.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:08 pm

He went on record as not being a fan and nervous. Wooooo So he can pretend he's another McCain who pretends to be a "maverick" in politics. Well, I'm not fan of the eyeroll and yet

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:19 pm

LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:08 pm He went on record as not being a fan and nervous. Wooooo So he can pretend he's another McCain who pretends to be a "maverick" in politics. Well, I'm not fan of the eyeroll and yet

In the end I am assuming he will roll over and play dead just like he has always done, because somehow the GOP are "afraid of Donald's base".

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:49 pm

‘Free-Market’ Conservatives Welcome Their New Protectionist Overlord

Trump was referring here to his mutually threatened trade war with China, which minutes before this tweet he had insisted "We are not in," because "that war was lost many years ago by the foolish, or incompetent, people who represented the U.S." You can't fight a war you've already lost, and so that's why we must fight, amirite?! (Also, the U.S. trade deficit with China isn't close to $500 billion; the president is once again pulling scary-sounding trade stats out of his arse.)

Conservatives used to know damn well that trade deficits don't matter, budget deficits do; not vice-versa. Here's Uncle Milton Friedman making the succinct case about that, and against steel tariffs, 40 years ago. But now that a populist protectionist has taken over the GOP and the White House, that new song is getting sung right out loud:

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:58 pm

I'm having a really hard time not selling off everything into cash.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:29 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:58 pm I'm having a really hard time not selling off everything into cash.

You don't want cash. Best to get some gold.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:34 pm

Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:29 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:58 pm I'm having a really hard time not selling off everything into cash.
You don't want cash. Best to get some gold.

He didn't say American cash.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:49 pm

Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:29 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:58 pm I'm having a really hard time not selling off everything into cash.
You don't want cash. Best to get some gold.

I think it's possible cryptocurrencies (if you can find a reliable enough one) may be safer than gold, at some point in the near future.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:01 pm

Physical gold is completely overpriced and won't save you. Crypto won't save you. Cash is a maybe good place to be. A market crash or major slow down would be likely be mostly in a deflationary direction. High quality debt is also probably a good place to be but there are risks there too. Still hopefully we won't find out how bad this can get.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:52 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:01 pm Physical gold is completely overpriced and won't save you. Crypto won't save you. Cash is a maybe good place to be. A market crash or major slow down would be likely be mostly in a deflationary direction. High quality debt is also probably a good place to be but there are risks there too. Still hopefully we won't find out how bad this can get.

You think physical gold is overpriced now. If things degraded to Venezuela levels it would be a lot higher.

I'm going with food, water, gold, and lead.....

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:53 pm

I for one am not surprised that Rip also fancies himself an expert on international trade. There is no end to his expertise!!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:55 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:53 pm I for one am not surprised that Rip also fancies himself an expert on international trade. There is no end to his expertise!!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Indeed. Makes one wonder if I am an illegitimate child of DJT, huh?

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:02 pm

I'd almost hope Trump totally ruins the country to hell and back and get it over with but it wouldn't make a bit of difference to the GOP and his supporters so why bother.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:51 pm

We have to keep in mind that Trump didn't win because of his base. He won because a lot of disgruntled traditional Democrats voted for "change." He won because a lot of people couldn't be motivated to vote for Hillary, or voted for third party candidates. And even then, he barely won and still lost the popular vote. And his approval ratings still suck.

It's tempting to throw up our hands in despair and believe that there's no hope, but this entire administration is a house of cards. It's not sustainable and it will collapse.

Unless you think that somehow Trump is magically going to do a bang-up job between now and November. He's already squandering the meager amount of economic goodwill he got from his tax cuts, so I don't have any faith he can do anything that's going to suddenly turn his fortunes around. The guy's a complete idiot, and he only seems to be getting dumber with experience.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:58 pm

YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:51 pm We have to keep in mind that Trump didn't win because of his base. He won because a lot of disgruntled traditional Democrats voted for "change." He won because a lot of people couldn't be motivated to vote for Hillary, or voted for third party candidates.

He won because of fake news.

if Hillary Clinton had retained the support of Obama voters, she would have most likely won the 2016 election. Instead, just 77 percent of Obama voters supported Clinton. Our survey data show that 10 percent of these former Obama voters cast ballots for Trump in 2016, 4 percent switched to minor parties and 8 percent did not vote.

Our key research question is: What accounts for these defections?

Our survey asked 281 questions, including three false statements best characterized as fake news – two negative statements about Hillary Clinton and one positive statement about Donald Trump. All three were widely disseminated through social media and spread by mainstream and partisan news outlets.

The first is that “Hillary Clinton is in very poor health due to a serious illness.” Twenty-five percent of all survey respondents believed that this was “definitely true” or “probably true,” as did 12 percent of our former Obama supporters.

The second is a statement that asked our respondents if they believed that “During her time as U.S. secretary of state, Hillary Clinton approved weapon sales to Islamic jihadists, including ISIS.” Thirty-five percent of our national sample believed that Clinton had sold weapons to the Islamic State, as did 20 percent of former Obama voters.

Finally, the third is a statement that “Pope Francis endorsed Donald Trump for president prior to the election.” About 10 percent of our national sample and 8 percent of Obama supporters thought this statement was true.

Belief in these fake news stories is very strongly linked to defection from the Democratic ticket by 2012 Obama voters. Among respondents who didn’t believe any of the fake news stories, 89 percent cast ballots for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Sixty-one percent of those who believed one fake news item voted for Clinton. But only 17 percent of those who believed two or all three of these false assertions voted for Clinton.

I probably ought to post this somewhere other than the trade war thread, but you gave me a segue.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:32 am

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:01 pm Physical gold is completely overpriced and won't save you. Crypto won't save you. Cash is a maybe good place to be. A market crash or major slow down would be likely be mostly in a deflationary direction. High quality debt is also probably a good place to be but there are risks there too. Still hopefully we won't find out how bad this can get.

This.

Commodities get crushed during a recession; including gold.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:35 am

NPR has had a few farmers on to talk about how this is affecting them.

They're all "Well, we've been living on the cusp for years now - and it's going to get worse. We weren't getting ahead before, so this is definitely going to sink a few people. BUT we support the President and what he's trying to accomplish. I just wish it didn't put farmers in the cross hairs"

I really wanted one of them to rail against him. I can only imagine farmers are so used to being abused by government policy that they just shrug and keep on moseying when the bullets start hitting them.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:46 am

Paingod wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:35 am NPR has had a few farmers on to talk about how this is affecting them.

They're all "Well, we've been living on the cusp for years now - and it's going to get worse. We weren't getting ahead before, so this is definitely going to sink a few people. BUT we support the President and what he's trying to accomplish. I just wish it didn't put farmers in the cross hairs"

I really wanted one of them to rail against him. I can only imagine farmers are so used to being abused by government policy that they just shrug and keep on moseying when the bullets start hitting them.

I guess one way or another this will correct itself. Either the farmers get smart and go against Trump or they fold and corporate america gets the farms.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:12 am

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:49 pm
Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:29 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:58 pm I'm having a really hard time not selling off everything into cash.
You don't want cash. Best to get some gold.
I think it's possible cryptocurrencies (if you can find a reliable enough one) may be safer than gold, at some point in the near future.

Just stay in diversified index funds. The market grows over time, even through periods of recession or depression. Unless you're planning on retiring in the near term, of course.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:16 am

Can someone explain to me what constitutes a "trade war"? I keep seeing articles about the tit-for-tat tariffs stating that they are bringing us one step closer to a trade war. So how does a full blown trade war differ from what is already going on?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:18 am

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:16 am Can someone explain to me what constitutes a "trade war"? I keep seeing articles about the tit-for-tat tariffs stating that they are bringing us one step closer to a trade war. So how does a full blown trade war differ from what is already going on?

I don't think there's really a formal definition of "trade war". Broadly speaking I think of it as a series of tit-for-tat tariff exchanges that goes for multiple rounds, as opposed to a one-off exchange.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:19 am

Only a smattering of metals and crops are involved.

We're currently in a trade peace keeping action.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:19 am

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:16 am Can someone explain to me what constitutes a "trade war"? I keep seeing articles about the tit-for-tat tariffs stating that they are bringing us one step closer to a trade war. So how does a full blown trade war differ from what is already going on?

As far as I can tell we are firing shots. I don't think there is concrete definition. What defined the war on drugs? Or the war on poverty?

https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is ... +trade+war

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:23 am

Also, 538 created a game where you can run your own trade war.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:57 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:23 am Also, 538 created a game where you can run your own trade war.

The solution reminded me of

Code: Select all

Would you like to play a game?

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:00 pm

The Courier font is a nice touch.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:37 pm

pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:51 pm
Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pm No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.
LOL.

Why LOL? Rip is right. The moment the US stops buying Chinese goods, thats all she wrote for China. China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.

Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:40 pm

Drazzil wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:37 pm
pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:51 pm
Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pm No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.
LOL.
Why LOL? Rip is right. The moment the US stops buying Chinese goods, thats all she wrote for China. China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.

Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.

Hint.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:51 pm

Drazzil wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:37 pm
pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:51 pm
Rip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:20 pm No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.
LOL.
Why LOL? Rip is right. The moment the US stops buying Chinese goods, thats all she wrote for China. China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.

Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.

China is their own market. As you have stated we built them a middle class. They are now a consumption based economy as well as producers.

Will we slow their meteoric growth down? Of course we will. We will lose a race to the bottom? Well ask which country has built it's infrastructure in the last 20 years and which country has seen theirs collapse.

As far as I know, the other Trump has right is China's economy still has little respect for IP and while they have plenty of brilliant mines they invest very little developing Chinese technology but rather co-opt it or outright steal it. I don't see how a "trade war" over steel is going foster a situation where IP is respected without him actively connecting the dots in a meaningful way.

Finally, with this administration which way do you think global economy will lean to support?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:53 pm

And while we are pissing off all of our trading partners, they are making deals all over the world to improve their diversification of markets and sophistication of industries.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:56 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:53 pm And while we are pissing off all of our trading partners, they are making deals all over the world to improve their diversification of markets and sophistication of industries.

That's what I'm saying.

Though we're making Russia happy as a pig in shit both providing them preferential trading status and are scaring our trading partners to them as well. Go USA!